The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling has released a survey of Montana that finds close contests for U.S. Senate, governor, and the state’s only U.S. House seat. This is the second poll from the successful crowdfunding effort by election enthusiasts on Twitter to pay for a survey of Alaska. (PPP director Tom Jensen wound up waiving his firm's fee for the two polls so that organizers could donate the proceeds to charity.)
The sample gives Democrat Steve Bullock a small 46-44 edge against Republican incumbent Steve Daines in the Senate race, while Donald Trump leads 51-42 in a state he carried 56-35 four years ago. That’s a slight improvement for Bullock from the 47-47 tie that PPP found in its March survey for his allies at End Citizens United. An April poll from Montana State University-Billings had Bullock ahead 46-39, while a recent survey by University of Montana gave the Democrat a 47-43 lead.
PPP finds that voters approve of the job Bullock is doing as governor by a 50-38 margin, while Daines posts a meh 43-42 approval rating. However, the pollster adds that the undecideds in this new poll back Trump by a 37-point margin, which could make it difficult for Bullock to emerge with the win in this conservative state. Still, the writeup also notes that Democratic Sen. Jon Tester prevailed two years ago even though the undecideds were also “structurally Republican” back then.
Over in the gubernatorial contest, Republican Greg Gianforte outpaces Democrat Mike Cooney 46-42, which is smaller than the 46-36 lead that the University of Montana recently found for him. Gianforte, who achieved national infamy in 2017 when he assaulted reporter Ben Jacobs and then lied about his actions, has an underwater 40-47 favorable rating, while Cooney is pretty undefined with his 27-25 score.
Finally, in the race to succeed Gianforte in the House, Democrat Kathleen Williams and Republican Matt Rosendale are deadlocked 44-44; PPP also found the two tied four months ago. The UM poll showed Rosendale ahead 45-37, while a recent Williams internal from Global Strategy Group had a 47-47 tie as well.
PPP shows that voters view Williams more favorably than her Republican rival almost two years after both she and Rosendale lost statewide bids. Williams, who took on Gianforte last cycle, sports a 37-33 score, while Rosendale, who lost to Tester, is at 34-40. Still, the pollster finds that the undecideds back Trump by a 28-point margin, which makes Williams’ task difficult.
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