The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● ME-Sen: We have two new polls of the Maine Senate race, and they show very different outcomes for the November general election.
Last week, the NRSC unveiled a survey from Moore Information that showed Republican incumbent Susan Collins beating state House Speaker Sara Gideon, who is the heavy favorite to win the July 14 Democratic primary, by a wide 45-37 margin. However, it’s notable that the GOP’s numbers still found Collins, a longtime incumbent who has pulled off landslide victories in her three previous re-election contests, in the mid-40s. That could be especially bad news for the Republicans because Maine uses instant-runoff voting for this contest, so Collins can’t win with just a plurality; it’s also possible that supporters of third-party and independent candidates may break disproportionately against the four-term senator after their first choice is eliminated.
Meanwhile on Monday, the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling released a survey giving Gideon a 47-43 edge, which is identical to what they found back in early March. PPP also showed Joe Biden carrying Maine 53-42, while the NRSC did not publicize any presidential numbers.
Campaign Action
Unfortunately, while this is one of the most contested Senate races this cycle, we've seen very little polling from the Pine Tree State. In fact, the only other survey that's been released in the last four months was a mid-May poll from Victory Geek for a local progressive organization, and it gave Gideon a 51-42 lead.
Gideon, though, is very much winning the money race against Collins. From April 1 to June 24, which is the time the FEC defines as the pre-primary period, Gideon outraised Collins $8 million to $3 million, and the Democrat held a small $5.5 million to $5 million cash-on-hand edge. Gideon's campaign also announced that she'd raised a total of $9 million for the second quarter of 2020, which would mean that she took in another $1 million during just the final seven days of June; Collins has not yet announced her total haul for the quarter.
If Gideon wins the primary next week, she'll get another big financial boost. Several organizations, including Daily Kos, raised about $4 million in 2018 right after Collins became the decisive vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court, and the funds will go to whoever wins the Democratic nomination.
Meanwhile, Gideon is up with another commercial pushing back on Republican attacks that she was too slow to take action against a state representative and teacher named Dillon Bates who had been accused of having improper relationships with his students. The narrator declares, "It's Sara Gideon who was the first to call on the state representative to resign when evidence of misconduct was revealed."
The narrator then goes after the incumbent for voting to acquit Donald Trump rather than remove him from office, declaring, "But even with mountains of evidence, Susan Collins gives Donald Trump a pass." The ad proceeds to show a clip of Collins from earlier this year saying, "I believe that the president has learned from this case. I believe that he will be much more cautious in the future." Gideon's new commercial came after the NRSC launched another spot on the Bates story.
Primary Night
● Primary Night: 10 Things I Hate About Van Drew: Tuesday is primary night in New Jersey, and as always, Daily Kos Elections has put together a preview of the key races to watch.
Most of the action will be in two competitive South Jersey seats. Democrats have a competitive contest in the 2nd District to take on Rep. Jeff Van Drew, who joined the Republicans last year, while Republicans have a nasty contest in the 3rd District to face Democratic Rep. Andy Kim. Van Drew also is going through his first-ever Republican primary, while Democratic Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Albio Sires also face intra-party challengers.
Polls close at 8 PM ET, and our live coverage will begin then at Daily Kos Elections. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. And you'll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates of the presidential and down-ballot primaries in all 50 states—many of which have been changed—as well as our separate calendar tracking key contests further down the ballot taking place nationwide this year.
Election Changes
Please bookmark our litigation tracker for a complete compilation of the latest developments in every lawsuit regarding changes to election and voting procedures.
● Alabama: The Supreme Court has, without explanation, stayed a lower court ruling that made it easier for certain Alabama voters to cast absentee ballots in the state's July 14 primary runoffs, after the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals denied the same request for a stay from Republican officials.
The ruling had barred officials in three of the state's biggest counties from enforcing a requirement that voters who believe "it is impossible or unreasonable to safely" do so provide the signature of a notary or two witnesses when voting absentee. It also waived a requirement that absentee voters include a copy of their photo IDs for those 65 and older or with a disability who likewise believed they could not do so safely. In addition, it prevented Republican Secretary of State John Merrill from banning curbside voting.
The Supreme Court's decision places that ruling on hold while Republicans appeal it, but in practice, time has run out to resolve the matter before the runoffs. However, the plaintiffs, who include the NAACP, say they will continue to litigate their case, which likely would mean concentrating their efforts on the November general election.
● Arkansas: Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson announced at a press conference late last week that voters could cite concerns about the coronavirus to request an absentee ballot for the November general election, but he specifically said he would not issue an executive order to that end. An attorney for three Arkansas voters who recently filed a suit in state court seeking to loosen the state's excuse requirement for voting absentee said Hutchinson's proclamation "lacked legal authority" and would therefore continue pressing his clients' case.
Republican Secretary of State John Thurston also said at the same event that the state would not send absentee applications to all voters, citing a "lack of funding." Thurston said that local officials could still do so, but the county clerk in Democratic-leaning Pulaski County, the state's largest, said that doing so would be "cost prohibitive."
● Connecticut: The League of Women Voters and the NAACP have filed a federal lawsuit seeking to block Connecticut from requiring that voters present an excuse to request an absentee ballot for the November general election. As the suit notes, Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont issued an executive order in May waiving the excuse requirement for the state's Aug. 11 primary but he has not taken similar action for November. Early last month, Lamont told lawmakers he plans to convene a special session of the legislature "very soon" to address the matter but has not yet done so.
● Delaware: Democratic Gov. John Carney has signed a bill that would allow all voters to request absentee ballots without an excuse for any election this year, including the state's Sept. 15 downballot primary and the November general election. The new law directs officials to mail applications for absentee ballots with prepaid postage to all voters in both elections.
● Georgia: A bill to bar Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and local election officials from sending unsolicited absentee ballot applications to voters has died after Georgia's Republican-run legislature adjourned at the end of last month without passing the measure. Raffensperger had mailed applications to all active registered voters ahead of the state's June 9 primary but said shortly afterward that he would not do so again for the November general election, claiming he lacks the funds.
● Massachusetts: Republican Gov. Charlie Baker has signed a bill passed by Massachusetts' Democratic-run state legislature to allow excuse-free mail voting in the state's Sept. 1 primary. The measure would also expand early voting before the November general election and establish an early voting period ahead of the primary for the first time. In addition, officials would be required to count ballots for the November election that are postmarked by Election Day and received within three days afterward (currently, ballots must be received by Election Day).
● Vermont: Republican Gov. Phil Scott has allowed a bill passed by Vermont's Democratic-run legislature that would pave the way for an all-mail election this November to become law without his signature. The legislation would let Democratic Secretary of State Jim Condos institute emergency election procedures without seeking Scott's approval. Condos has long sought to conduct elections this year by mail, but Scott has resisted such plans. However, Scott said he did not oppose lawmakers removing him from the decision-making process. Condos has not yet announced any specifics.
2Q Fundraising
● GA-Sen-B: Raphael Warnock (D): $2.85 million raised
● MA-Sen: Ed Markey (D-inc): $1.9 million raised, $4.8 million cash-on-hand; Joe Kennedy III (D): $1.9 million raised, $4.7 million cash-on-hand
● MT-Sen: Steve Bullock (D): $7.7 million raised, $7.4 million cash-on-hand
● NC-Sen: Cal Cunningham (D): $7.4 million raised, $6.6 million cash-on-hand
● NC-Gov: Roy Cooper (D-inc): $5.5 million raised, $14 million cash on hand
● VA-Gov: Jennifer Carroll Foy (D): $776,000 raised
● CA-45: Katie Porter (D-inc): $2.5 million raised, $6.6 million cash-on-hand
● IA-01: Abby Finkenauer (D-inc): $875,000 raised, $2.7 million cash-on-hand; Ashley Hinson (R): $1 million raised, $1.6 million cash on hand
● IA-02: Rita Hart (D): $620,000 raised, $1.35 million cash-on-hand
● SC-01: Joe Cunningham (D-inc): $863,000 raised, $3.1 million cash-on-hand
● TX-10: Mike Siegel (D): $250,000 raised; Pritesh Gandhi (D): $256,000 raised
● TX-24: Kim Olson (D): $438,000 raised; Candace Valenzuela (D): $465,000 raised
Senate
● GA-Sen-A, GA-Sen-B: Politico reports that the NRSC has reserved $2.1 million for TV commercials that will begin July 15, though it's not clear whether these ads will go towards protecting Sen. David Perdue or appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler. The Republican firm Medium Buying also says that Perdue will begin running TV ads this week.
● IA-Sen: The progressive group End Citizens United has released a poll from GQR that shows Democrat Theresa Greenfield leading Republican Sen. Joni Ernst 49-47. A trio of other surveys released in the month since Greenfield secured the Democratic nod have also given her a small edge.
Greenfield's allies at Senate Majority PAC are also devoting more money to help her. Roll Call reports that the group has booked an additional $3.6 million in fall TV time, which takes their total reservation here to $16.7 million.
Meanwhile, Ernst is up with her first TV ad of the campaign. The senator talks about her military service in Iraq and bashes China as a "supply chain threat."
● KS-Sen: Wealthy businessman Bob Hamilton is using his first negative TV spot against Rep. Roger Marshall ahead of the Aug. 4 Republican primary to focus on the congressman's 2008 conviction for reckless driving and the charge's subsequent erasure.
The ad begins with audio of a 911 call where a Marshall neighbor named Randy Suchy tells the dispatcher, "I've got Dr. Roger Marshall over here trespassing. He just about ran over me." The narrator then jumps in, "Roger Marshall, charged with battery and reckless driving. Convicted. Sentenced to jail time." She continues, "But Marshall had ties to the prosecutor and got it erased. The conviction: eliminated. The evidence: sealed."
Hamilton is also running a positive commercial with a lot of bad puns. You have been warned.
● MI-Sen: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling's newest survey for Progress Michigan gives Democratic incumbent Gary Peters a 47-39 lead over Republican John James, while Joe Biden leads 50-44. PPP found Peters ahead by a similar 48-39 margin in late May.
● MT-Sen, MT-Gov, MT-AL: The University of Montana is has released a poll looking at this trio of races:
- MT-Sen: Steve Bullock (D): 47, Steve Daines (R-inc): 43
- MT-Gov: Greg Gianforte (R): 46, Mike Cooney (D): 36
- MT-AL: Matt Rosendale (R): 45, Kathleen Williams (D): 37
The sample also shows Donald Trump ahead 52-38 in a state he carried 56-35 four years ago.
A May survey from Montana State University gave Bullock a 46-39 lead, while we haven't seen any surveys looking at the gubernatorial or House race in months.
● NC-Sen: The NRSC is out with the first of what will undoubtedly be many commercials against Democrat Cal Cunningham, and it attempts to tie him to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
● TX-Sen: EMILY's List, which is backing Air Force veteran MJ Hegar in next week's Democratic primary runoff, has released a survey from Public Policy Polling that gives Republican Sen. John Cornyn a 42-35 lead over her in a hypothetical general election; the sample also favors Joe Biden 48-46. The release did not mention Hegar's intra-party rival, state Sen. Royce West.
We haven't seen any polls of the runoff in months, but Hegar, who outpaced West 22-15 during the first round in March, does hold a dominant lead in the money race. Hegar outraised West $1.6 million to $430,000 during the pre-primary period, and she outspent him $1.1 million to $390,000. Hegar also held a $1.6 million to $160,000 cash-on-hand lead for the home stretch.
Hegar is also getting some outside help from the DSCC. The Texas Tribune reports that Hegar and the committee are spending at least $500,000 on a coordinated ad buy in the Dallas and Houston media markets, which together are home to just over half of the state's residents.
Meanwhile, West earned an endorsement last week from Rep. Joaquin Castro, who considered running for this seat last year.
Gubernatorial
● AR-Gov: Attorney General Leslie Rutledge announced last week that she was entering the 2022 contest to succeed Gov. Asa Hutchinson, a fellow Republican who is termed-out next cycle. Rutledge joins Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin, who launched his campaign in August of last year, in the primary.
● MT-Gov: The RGA has launched what the National Journal's Mary Frances McGowan describes as a "six-figure statewide ad buy across tv and radio platforms" against Democrat Mike Cooney. The commercial declares that Cooney has been "a political insider since Jimmy Carter was president" and argues he's raised taxes in office.
House
● AL-01: Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl is out with a commercial ahead of next week's Republican primary runoff that accuses former Sen. Bill Hightower of "trying to hide his disgust for President Trump."
The spot then shows a picture of a 2016 tweet Hightower liked from conservative columnist Quin Hillyer (who unsuccessfully ran here back in the 2013 special election), where Hillyer expressed his "disgust" for both presidential candidates. The narrator interprets this as Hightower admitting his own disgust for having to back Trump, and he goes on to accuse the former state senator of supporting tolls and having "voted to make it easier for illegal immigrants to vote."
● ME-02: A newly-formed group called the American Policy Fund is spending about $125,000 on commercials attacking 2018 Senate nominee Eric Brakey ahead of next week's Republican contest to take on Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. The offensive comes after two conservative groups, the Club for Growth and Protect Freedom PAC, deployed a total of $865,000 to support Brakey.
Brakey is one of three Republicans competing in the primary for this northern Maine seat, which will be conducted using an instant-runoff ballot, and he holds a big financial advantage over his rivals heading into the final weeks of the campaign. Brakey outraised real estate agent Adrienne Bennett $150,000 to $90,000 during the pre-primary period, while former state Rep. Dale Crafts took in just $57,000 and self-funded another $50,000.
However, it was Crafts who narrowly outspent Brakey $173,000 to $167,000 during this time, while Bennett used just $98,000. Still, Brakey held a $150,000 war chest on June 24 for the final days of the campaign, while Crafts and Bennett had $60,000 and $30,000 left to spend, respectively.
Whoever emerges with the GOP nod will start out far behind Golden in resources. The congressman raised about $500,000 during the pre-primary period, and he had $2 million in the bank to defend this competitive seat.
● NY-02: On Thursday, Mike LiPetri conceded the June 23 Republican primary to fellow Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino. With 19,000 ballots tallied as of Monday evening Garbarino, who had the support of retiring Rep. Peter King and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, leads 62-38.
Garbarino will take on Babylon Town Councilor Jackie Gordon, who easily won the Democratic primary, in the general election for this district in central Long Island. Gordon, who began running months before King announced his departure last November, has decisively outraised Garbarino so far, though the Republican may gain ground now that he's secured the GOP nod. This seat swung from 52-47 Obama to 53-44 Trump, and Republicans do well downballot in this area. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Lean Republican.
● NY-09: On Wednesday, the Associated Press called the June 23 Democratic primary for this safely blue seat for Rep. Yvette Clarke. With 60,000 ballots counted in this central Brooklyn district as of Monday evening, Clarke leads community organizer Adem Bunkeddeko 62-18.
While the margin may shift after mail-in votes are tabulated, this outcome looks very different than Clarke's surprisingly small 53-47 victory against Bunkeddeko from two years ago. One big reason this contest was this lopsided may be that Clarke learned from her past mistakes: While she said during the 2018 campaign that she didn't take Bunkeddeko seriously, the congresswoman declared months later that she "definitely will not be caught by surprise" this time around.
● NY-10: On Wednesday, the Associated Press called the Democratic primary for this safely blue seat, which includes the West Side of Manhattan and part of southern Brooklyn, for longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler. With 31,000 votes counted as of Monday evening, Nadler leads Lindsey Boylan, who is a former Cuomo administration official, 62-25.
● TN-01: On behalf of the local station WJHL, the GOP pollster Spry Strategies is out with the first survey we've seen of the Aug. 6 Republican primary for this safely red East Tennessee seat:
- Pharmacist Diana Harshbarger: 22
- State Sen. Rusty Crowe: 14
- State Rep. Timothy Hill: 11
- State Rep. David Hawk: 6
- Former Johnson City Mayor Steve Darden: 6
- Physician Josh Gapp: 6
- Former Kingsport Mayor John Clark: 5
- Machinist Jay Adkins: 3
- Internet consultant Nichole Williams: 2
Spry did not ask about the other seven contenders on the ballot, though 3% of respondents volunteered that they support "another candidate." The remaining 21% were undecided.
● TX-10: 314 Action Fund has launched a six-figure ad buy ahead of next week's Democratic primary runoff supporting physician Pritesh Gandhi and opposing 2018 nominee Mike Siegel. The spot argues that Siegel has "already lost" to Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, while Gandhi is a stronger choice.
● TX-13: Miles of Greatness Fund, a super PAC that supports former White House chief physician Ronny Jackson, is publicizing a survey from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates that shows Jackson leading lobbyist Josh Winegarner 46-29 in next week's Republican primary runoff. The only other poll we've seen here was a mid-June survey for another pro-Jackson group, the Club for Growth, which had him up 49-41.
● TX-23: On Friday, Donald Trump endorsed Navy veteran Tony Gonzales in next week's Republican primary runoff for this competitive open seat. Trump made his move days after Sen. Ted Cruz threw his support behind Gonzales' intra-party opponent, businessman Raul Reyes. Amusingly, the New York Times reports that, while House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy worked hard to secure that endorsement tweet for Gonzales, Cruz unsuccessfully tried to convince Trump to remain neutral.
While Trump's support could help Gonzales, who has the backing of retiring Rep. Will Hurd, beat Reyes on July 14, it could be a big liability in November. This seat, which stretches from San Antonio west to the El Paso area, swung from 51-48 Romney to 50-46 Clinton, and Cruz lost it 52-47 two years later. And while Hurd did narrowly win re-election in 2018 against Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, he had to constantly portray himself as a congressman who was willing to defy the White House when necessary.
Gonzales, though, doesn't seem concerned with the possibility that his allegiance to Trump could hurt him in November against Ortiz Jones, who is again the Democratic nominee. Gonzales went up with an ad last week shortly before the Trump tweet went up arguing, "President Trump needs allies. But Raul Reyes never even bothered to vote in a Republican primary."
● TX-24: The Texas Tribune writes that End Citizens United is spending $100,000 on digital ads and mail supporting local school board member Candace Valenzuela in next week's Democratic primary runoff. The Latino Victory Fund also recently launched a TV spot against Valenzuela's opponent, Air Force veteran Kim Olson, though we do not have a copy of the commercial or the size of the buy.
● VA-07: On Thursday, local Republican Party officials announced the rules governing the July 18 convention, where Team Red will select its nominee to face Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger.
The estimated 4,000 delegates will drive to the Meadow Event Park and leave their vehicles to cast ballots at the exhibition hall. The delegates will then return to their cars or hang around outside and wait for result to be announced: If another round of voting is needed, the process will repeat itself until a nominee is selected. There are six Republicans competing here, so there's a good chance that it could take quite a few ballots to pick a candidate. If this sounds like a truly miserable experience, just be glad you're not a Republican convention delegate.
● WA-10: Former Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland is up with a TV spot ahead of the Aug. 4 top-two primary that stars her most prominent supporters, former Democratic Govs. Gary Locke and Christine Gregoire.
Locke introduces Strickland by telling the audience, "The daughter of a veteran and immigrant, Marilyn Strickland knows the importance of creating opportunity for everyone." Gregoire goes on to laud Strickland's service as mayor during the Great Recession, and the two former governors continue by talking about the candidate's progressive accomplishments.
Other Races
● Los Angeles County CA, District Attorney: Democratic Rep. Alan Lowenthal announced last week that he was withdrawing his endorsement of incumbent Jackie Lacey and would instead back former San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón in the November general election. Lowenthal argued that Gascón, who is running to Lacey's left, had a "transformative vision" and displayed "progressive leadership." Rep. Adam Schiff also recently retracted his Lacey endorsement, but he is not publicly supporting Gascón.
● UT-AG: The Associated Press announced Friday that it was calling last week's Republican primary for state Attorney General Sean Reyes. With 491,000 votes counted as of Monday evening, Reyes leads Utah County Attorney David Leavitt 54-46. Reyes will be the heavy favorite in the fall against Democrat Greg Skordas in this very red state.
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