Did you know that we’re only 95 days away from Election Day 2020?
There was some hubbub earlier this week as the 100-days-out-from-the-election point passed, but that’s not actually significant outside of the fact that 100 is a big round number.
Nevertheless, each day that passes brings us closer to the final election before the next round of redistricting.
Campaigns, such as they are in our coronareality, are in full swing as we slide into August and gird ourselves for that post-Labor Day sprint.
And because we’re getting awfully close to that final push, you may recall that I listed my top legislative chamber targets for November in this space at the beginning of the month.
To save you a click, they are:
- Arizona House (Dems need to flip two for a majority)
- Arizona Senate (Dems need to flip three)
- Michigan House (Dems need to flip four)
- Minnesota Senate (flip two)
- North Carolina House (flip six)
- North Carolina Senate (flip five)
- Pennsylvania House (flip nine)
- Texas House (flip nine)
I’ve already done a deep dive into the Minnesota Senate, the relative layup of the bunch, where I (relying on the outstanding analysis of my Daily Kos Elections colleagues) discussed the multiple flippable seats in that chamber.
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This week, let’s take a gander at the Pennsylvania House.
With nine seats needed to flip the chamber to a Democratic majority, it’s certainly one of the heavier lifts on this list.
But, again, my extremely smart colleagues dug into the numbers—specifically the 2018 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate results—and lo! They discovered a fairly heartening Democratic path to the majority.
- Like most legislatures’ lower chambers, all members of the (203-seat!) Pennsylvania House are up for reelection every two years, so every seat is up this fall.
- Republicans hold a 110-93 majority (there are a couple of vacancies, but we slot those in the column of the party that last held the seat).
- I’m sure you recall that Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but not only did he carry the state; he also took 119 of those 203 state House districts (Clinton carried 83).
Bummer, right?
Sure, but things change.
And in the Keystone State, change they did.
- When Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey won reelection over Republican Lou Barletta in 2018, he carried those 83 Clinton districts, plus 36 more. (...that’s 119.)
- Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf did even better in his reelect that year, winning those 119 districts + 13 more (= 132).
So! The math looks good. Democrats just have to win a bunch of those Casey districts, right? And maybe some Wolf districts, just for fun?
Alas, it’s never that simple.
- First thing to consider is that, of the Democrats currently in the chamber, there’s some defense to play.
- Two Democrats are in seats won by Trump/Barletta/Wagner.
- Three represent seats won by Trump/Barletta/Wolf.
- Ten Dems serve in Trump/Casey/Wolf seats.
- But, based on trends, it’s fair to not fret too much about those ten Democrats.
- So, let’s assume anywhere from two to five Democrats are playing pretty serious defense this fall.
Not great, but it’s a better place to be than the Pennsylvania House GOP right now.
- Here’s why:
- Six Republicans occupy seats won by Clinton AND Casey AND Wolf.
- Good targets! But even if Dems keep all their current seats, not enough.
- However, another 25 Republicans represent seats that went for Trump in 2016 but shifted to Casey and Wolf in 2018.
- So, even with Democrats playing some defense, there’s a fairly broad map to flipping the nine seats they need to win a Pennsylvania House majority.
But nine seats is a lot to flip in any cycle. Keystone Dems definitely have their work cut out for them.
Elsewhere …
- Republicans in Ohio have to pick themselves a new leader.
- On Thursday, the state House voted unanimously to remove Republican Speaker Larry Householder from his position.
- Why?
- Because last week, Householder was arrested on federal corruption charges stemming from a $60 million bribery scheme.
- In fact, he was formally indicted just minutes before his ouster as head of the chamber.
- The removal, however, was just from his position as speaker.
- He’s still a sitting state representative and is up for reelection this fall.
- In Alabama, Republican state Rep. Will Dismukes is getting a lot of heat this week after he attended (and gave the invocation at!) a “birthday party” for Confederate general and Klu Klux Klan grand wizard Nathan Bedford Forrest.
- Dismukes was proud of his participation in the event.
- Dismukes has, however, resigned from one position, at least.
- Even members of Dismukes’ own party have called for his resignation after his participation in ForrestFest, noting that he was celebrating this disgusting man even as celebrations of John Lewis’ life were being held in the state.
- Dismukes has given no indication that he has any plans to heed such calls.
- In Wisconsin, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has issued a statewide face mask mandate, effective Saturday.
- The order requires all residents to wear masks indoors until the end of September.
- By the by, the same day Evers issued this order, Wisconsin reported more than 1,000 new cases of coronavirus, continuing an upward trend in the state.
- Evers also declared anew a statewide public health emergency.
- Predictably, Republican lawmakers were unhappy with the governor’s move to protect the health of Wisconsinites.
- Remember, kids! Governing While Democrat is never okay, no matter how noble the cause.
- Senate Republicans are considering coming back into session to countermand Evers’ order.
- GOP Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, however, was more pragmatic, understanding that the matter will almost certainly end up in court again, but indicated that this time Republicans might leave the effort to legal challenges from “citizen groups.”
- And when I say “court again,” it’s because Evers and the Republican-controlled legislature have more or less been down this road before.
- Back in the spring, when COVID-19 was first rampaging across the country, Evers issued a stay-at-home order to help arrest the spread of the pandemic in Wisconsin.
- Since this was a clear case of Governing While Democrat, the GOP-controlled legislature filed a lawsuit that sought to have the order overturned.
- After holding a virtual hearing (weird how the justices were content to stay safely at home), the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled on May 13 to overturn the order.
- But the details are important here: The court overturned the stay-at-home order with a 4-3 vote.
Why is this important?
So glad you asked!
- As of May, conservative Justice Daniel Kelly had recently lost the April judicial election to progressive Jill Karofsky.
- Despite the loss, Kelly’s term allowed him to remain on the bench through the end of July.
- On Aug. 1—which just happens to be the same day the mask order takes effect—Justice Karofsky will finally replace Kelly on the state’s highest court.
- Which, if the other justices rule in a similar manner as the May case, would mean a 4-3 win for Evers in the basically inevitable GOP-backed lawsuit challenging the mask mandate.
… not to mention a win for Wisconsinites but whatever mask-wearing is tragically partisan AF
Welp, that’s a wrap for this week. Thanks for taking time out of your [[waves hands]] stuff!
Hope you’re hanging in there as we stare down the steamy barrel of August.
Take care of yourself.
We need you.
