The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Los Angeles County, CA District Attorney: Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff announced on Saturday that he was retracting his endorsement of Los Angeles County District Attorney Jackie Lacey. Schiff tweeted, "This is a rare time in our nation's history. We have a responsibility to make profound changes to end systemic racism & reform criminal justice." Schiff did not mention Lacey's opponent, former San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón, who is challenging the Democratic incumbent from the left in the November nonpartisan general election.
Campaign Action
While Lacey still has the backing of much of the state and local Democratic establishment, Schiff isn't the first major politician to distance himself from the district attorney in the wake of widespread protests against police killings. Last week, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti was asked by The Appeal's Matt Ferner if it was "time for a change in that office," to which Garcetti responded, "It may be." Unlike Schiff, though, Garcetti has not yet revoked his Lacey endorsement.
While Lacey's 2012 win made her the first woman and the first African American to serve as top prosecutor of America's largest county, she's long had a bad relationship with many criminal justice reformers, including Black Lives Matter activists. Lacey antagonized them by opposing measures to reduce California's prison population, and her detractors have also pointed out that Los Angeles County sends people to prison at four times the rate as San Francisco. The incumbent has also been criticized for her reluctance to prosecute police shootings as well as her ties to police unions, which spent $1 million against Gascón in the March primary.
Lacey has responded to her detractors by pointing to her own tough upbringing where she witnessed "gang violence, poverty, and difficult relations between the police and community." She also issued a statement after Schiff pulled his endorsement saying, "I am proud of my record of taking on systemic racism and reforming criminal justice—from bail reform, to reducing juvenile cases by nearly 50%, to increasing our office's focus on mental health treatment instead of incarceration."
Lacey took 49% of the vote in the March nonpartisan primary, which was just below the majority she needed to win outright. Gascón was in second with 28%, while public defender Rachel Rossi, who was also running to Lacey's left, earned 23%.
ELECTION CHANGES
Please bookmark our statewide 2020 primary calendar and our calendar of key downballot races, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized.
● Alaska: Republican Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer, who is in charge of Alaska's elections, has announced that he will mail absentee ballot applications to all voters 65 and older for the state's Aug. 18 primary. However, Democrats and voting rights advocates have called on Meyer to send applications to all voters regardless of age.
Democratic state Rep. Matt Claman has pointed out that Meyer's decision will disproportionately favor white voters: 23% of the state's 65+ population is made up of people of color, while 33% of those under 65 are of color. Another Democratic state representative, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, says the legislature's nonpartisan legal advisers are looking into whether Meyer's plan is constitutional.
● Connecticut: Several Republican politicians in Connecticut, including two members of the state legislature, have filed a lawsuit challenging a memo Democratic Secretary of State Denise Merrill released in early May determining that voters with pre-existing conditions or who may have come in contact with those infected with COVID-19 may request an absentee ballot by citing their "illness." The plaintiffs argue that Merrill's interpretation would lead to voter fraud, a claim that has been rejected in many similar cases, and violates the state constitution.
The suit does not appear to address an executive order issued by Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont in late May allowing all voters to request absentee ballots for the states' Aug. 11 primary so long as there is "no federally approved and widely available vaccine for prevention of COVID-19."
● New Mexico: New Mexico's Democratic-run legislature has passed a bill that will allow county clerks to send absentee ballot applications to voters, after conservative Democrats in the Senate sided with Republicans to strip a provision that would have mailed ballots to all voters. The measure now goes to Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who supports the legislation.
Primary Preview
● Primary Night: Love in the Time of Carolina Runoffs: We're in for another eventful night on Tuesday with primaries and runoffs taking place in six states across the nation. We've put together our preview of what to watch in the primaries in Kentucky, New York, and Virginia, as well as the runoffs in Mississippi, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
We have a lot on tap, especially in New York. Longtime Rep. Eliot Engel faces a strong challenge from the left from educator Jamaal Bowman, and several other Democratic incumbents also have notable intra-party opponents. Progressives are also seeking to score wins―as well as stop conservative foes―in open seat races in the 15th and 17th Districts.
We also have a closely-watched Democratic primary in Kentucky, where state Rep. Charles Booker is trying to pull off an upset against national establishment favorite Amy McGrath in the race to take on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. We'll also be watching House primaries in Virginia, as well as a runoff in a conservative North Carolina district.
These elections will unfold differently in each state, and we want to emphasize that we may not know all the winners for days. Kentucky's Board of Elections, for instance, has advised all counties to wait until June 30 before releasing any results, while New York will not count its absentee ballots for at least a week after the primary.
Our live coverage will begin at 7 PM ET Tuesday night at Daily Kos Elections when the polls close in Virginia. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. And you'll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates of the presidential and downballot primaries in all 50 states—many of which have been changed—as well as our separate calendar tracking key contests further down the ballot taking place nationwide this year.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is out with a mid-May poll from FM3 that shows him trailing GOP frontrunner Tommy Tuberville 47-44 in a hypothetical general election. Jones is unquestionably the most vulnerable senator from either party, and while he's behind in this survey, he's arguing that this contest is still very winnable. The sample shows Donald Trump ahead 53-39 in a state he carried 62-34.
FM3 also took a look at the July 14 Republican runoff and found Tuberville defeating former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions by a wide 54-32, which is very similar to what the Republican firm Cygnal found around that same time; a Sessions internal from OnMessage Inc. this month found him losing to Tuberville "just" 49-43. FM3 tells us that the sample size for the GOP runoff portion of the poll was 367.
● CO-Sen: A newly formed-group called Let's Turn Colorado Blue PAC has launched what the Colorado Sun reports is a $750,000 TV buy against former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff ahead of next week's Democratic primary. The PAC is led by supporters of former Gov. John Hickenlooper, whom Romanoff recently began running commercials against, but there's no word who is funding it.
The spot declares that Romanoff and then-GOP Gov. Bill Owens passed "the nation's harshest anti-immigrant laws, increasing racial profiling by requiring police to notify ICE if they suspected they arrested an undocumented immigrant." The narrator continues, "Latino leaders said if it's expedient for him, he's willing to sacrifice the most vulnerable."
Romanoff apologized for these 2006 bills last year, writing, "I did not think local governments should be allowed to thwart federal law, but tasking local law-enforcement officers with this responsibility was a serious mistake." Romanoff also said he had co-sponsored legislation that same year urging Congress to enact "comprehensive immigration reform—a cause I've supported throughout my career." He also declared around that time that he had supported the successful 2013 effort to repeal the legislation described in the commercial, Senate Bill 90.
Hickenlooper's allies at Senate Majority PAC are also up with a new ad supporting the former governor. The spot doesn't mention Romanoff and instead compares Hickenlooper's record on health care with that of GOP Sen. Cory Gardner.
● TN-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed former Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty in the August GOP primary for this open seat.
House
● FL-19: Republican state Rep. Byron Donalds opens his first TV spot for the crowded and very expensive August primary with an old clip of Donald Trump saying, "I want to thank Representative Donalds ... He's got a tremendous future ahead of him." Donalds himself goes on to tell the audience, "Today, I am everything the fake news media tells you doesn't exist. A strong, Trump-supporting, gun-owning, liberty-loving, pro-life, politically incorrect Black man."
● GA-14: Neurosurgeon John Cowan is out with a new survey from Battleground Connect that gives him a narrow 43-40 edge over QAnon conspiracy theorist Marjorie Greene in the August Republican runoff. Last week, Cowan released numbers that showed Greene leading by that same 43-40 margin. In the time between when those two polls were conducted, though, state and national Republican leaders distanced themselves from Greene after Politico reported on her litany of racist and antisemitic rantings.
● MA-04: The state firefighter's union has endorsed Newton City Councilor Becky Walker Grossman in the crowded September Democratic primary.
● MI-03: Army veteran Peter Meijer is out with a poll of the August Republican primary from National Research Inc. that gives him a wide 41-17 lead over state Rep. Lynn Afendoulis. This is the first survey we've seen of the GOP contest to succeed Republican-turned independent-turned Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash.
● NJ-02: Political science professor Brigid Callahan Harrison has picked up an endorsement from Rep. Josh Gottheimer in the July 7 Democratic primary.
● NY-14: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is up with a TV spot against former CNBC anchor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera just ahead of Tuesday's Democratic primary. The narrator says of Caruso-Cabrera, "In 2016, she was a Republican living in Trump Tower. Her husband is a Republican mega donor." The commercial continues, "She moved to Queens last year just to run for Congress. And, Wall Street is pumping millions into her campaign."
This has been an expensive primary between AOC and Caruso-Cabrera, who has the support of the conservative U.S. Chamber of Commerce, in this safely blue seat. From April 1 to June 3 (the time the FEC designates as the pre-primary period), the incumbent outspent Caruso-Cabrera about $1.3 million to $750,000. Caruso-Cabrera also self-funded $1 million late in the campaign.
● TN-01: Physician Josh Gapp is out with a commercial ahead of the crowded August Republican primary for this safely red seat, and for some reason, it's essentially a remake of a truly cringeworthy 2018 spot from Wyoming gubernatorial candidate Sam Galeotos. Galeotos ended up taking fourth place in his six-way GOP primary with just 12% of the vote, so it's safe to say his old ad was not the game changer his campaign needed.
Gapp's new spot, just like the Galeotos commercial two years ago, takes place in a diner and features one customer promoting the candidate as his confused friends try to rhyme the Republican's name with various other words. This idea sort of made sense in Galeotos' spot, but Gapp's name is far easier to both spell and pronounce. Unfortunately, we're still subjected to several painful seconds of the customers somehow mixing up Gapp with "strap," "cap," wrap," "map," and "frap."
Once the table is finally on the same page, Gapp's promoter calls him, "The doctor trying to spot cancer, who will help President Trump protect our God-given rights from the cancer of political correctness." A guy at the adjoining table (surprise! There's absolutely no social distancing in this spot) then turns around and asks, "You all talking about Josh Gapp?" One of the diners who hadn't heard of the candidate 20 seconds ago enthusiastically responds, "Yeah! I'd like to meet him!"
The man at the other table tells his new supporter, "You just did. But please, call me Josh." It will probably not surprise you to learn that the Galeotos commercial had this exact "twist" two years ago.
● TX-22: Self-funder Kathaleen Wall spent the last few months running racist commercials targeting China ahead of the July 14 Republican primary runoff, but she released a spot last week accusing Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls of doing little to stop human trafficking. The Fort Bend Herald and Texas Coaster reports that this commercial is running on TV for $276,000.
The ad stars Fort Bend County Constable Wayne Thompson, who says of trafficking, "As sheriff, Troy Nehls allowed it to get much worse. His lack of attention resulted in more victims." Thompson continues, "A young woman was forced into sexual slavery, and Nehls told her grieving parents that she simply made a 'lifestyle decision.'" Nehls' team responded by saying that the sheriff has a long record of working to help victims and arrest perpetrators, and that Wall "knows good and well Wayne Thompson, who does not have a single detective on staff, is lying through his teeth."
Legislative
● Special Elections: There are two special elections, one in Kentucky and one in Mississippi, on tap for Tuesday
KY-SD-26: This Republican district in the Louisville suburbs became vacant when longtime state Sen. Ernie Harris resigned in April. The GOP has nominated former Oldham County party chairman Bill Ferko, while the Democrats are fielding 2018 nominee Karen Berg. Berg gave Harris the closest race of his career in 2018, holding the 25-year state Senate veteran to just a 52-46 win.
Republicans have a large 28-9 advantage in this chamber so this race will have little effect on its makeup. However, as Berg’s 2018 performance showed, this highly educated suburban district has been ticking away from the GOP in recent years. This district swung from 61-37 Romney to 53-41 Trump and, according to analyst Drew Savicki, Andy Beshear was victorious here over Matt Bevin 54-45 in his successful bid for governor last year.
MS-HD-88: This is a Republican district near Laurel that became vacant when former state Rep. Ramona Blackledge resigned in January. Blackledge had just been elected a few months earlier but stepped down after state House Speaker Philip Gunn declined to allow former public employees who were elected to this chamber (of whom Blackledge is one) to collect both their legislative salary and public employee pension.
Special elections in Mississippi are officially nonpartisan and there are two candidates vying for this seat: businesswoman Robin Robinson and funeral director Mike Walker. Given that Democrats have not contested this seat in either of the last two state House elections, unsurprisingly, both candidates are running on conservative platforms. A third candidate, Jason Dykes, had announced a bid for this seat but has since dropped out and said he will not take office if he wins.
Mississippi is one of the most difficult states to extract election data from, so we don’t have presidential results for this district. However, the last time a Democrat was on the ballot in this seat was in 2011, when former state Rep. Gary Staples comfortably defeated Jonathan Hodge 64-24.
Republicans have a 73-46 advantage in this chamber (with one independent member) with just this seat vacant.
Mayoral
● Miami-Dade County, FL Mayor: Republican incumbent Carlos Gimenez, who is running for Congress against Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, is termed-out as mayor of Florida’s largest county, and seven candidates are on the ballot to succeed him. All the contenders will face off in the Aug. 18 nonpartisan primary, and in the likely event that no one takes a majority of the vote, the top-two vote-getters will compete in the Nov. 3 general election.
The best-known contender may be former Mayor Alex Penelas, a Democrat who served from 1996 to 2004. Penelas hasn’t been on the ballot since 2004, when he took third in the primary for U.S. Senate both statewide and in the county, but he outraised each of his opponents in 2019.
Another notable Democrat in the contest is County Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava, who is backed by EMILY’s List. Law firm supervisor Monique Nicole Barley is also running as a Democrat, though she said of Donald Trump’s immigration record, “I do like that he is cracking down on people who are coming to the United States illegally. He is protecting the United States of America. ... I think he’s doing a good job.”
The main Republican contender looks like County Commissioner Steve Bovo. Also in the race is his colleague, Xavier Suarez, who identifies as an independent. Suarez served as mayor of the city of Miami in the 1980s and 1990s, and his son, Republican Francis Suarez, holds that post now. Real estate broker Ludmilla Domond and trucking firm owner Carlos Antonio de Armas, who have not run for office before, are also in.
P.S.: While filing closed June 12 for mayor, the deadline to run for Congress was back in late April, while candidates for the state legislature had until last Friday to file. We don’t know why the state has so many different deadlines when the primary for all of these offices is Aug. 18.
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