The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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● Election Night: Control of both the U.S. Senate and House remains uncertain Wednesday morning after election night went far better for Democrats than almost anyone anticipated, while Team Blue also scored some key wins by defending crucial swing state governorships. We’ll start with a look at the Senate below.
● Senate: Democrats have netted at least one seat through John Fetterman’s victory over Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, which means that Republicans need to take three of the four of the races that the Associated Press has not called the following races as of Wednesday morning in order to secure a bare 51-49 majority:
A Dec. 6 runoff would take place in Georgia should no one take a majority after all votes are tabulated.
The GOP is also guaranteed to keep Alaska, though we almost certainly won’t know if Sen. Lisa Murkowski has held on against Trump-backed intra-party foe Kelly Tshibaka until instant-runoff tabulations take place on Nov. 23.
Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan also convincingly prevailed in New Hampshire, where most polls showed her locked in a tight race against Don Bolduc. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and Washington Sen. Patty Murray likewise turned in strong wins against well-funded GOP foes in races that attracted some notable outside spending from both sides and where several surveys found things deceptively close.
Republicans, meanwhile, kept Ohio, where the party unexpectedly had to deploy a massive amount of money to put J.D. Vance over the top against Tim Ryan, and North Carolina, where Rep. Ted Budd beat Democrat Cheri Beasley.
Additionally, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio decisively fended off Democrat Val Demings as his party romped across the state, while longtime Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley beat Mike Franken in another race where major outside groups stayed away; Grassley leads 56-44 with most votes tabulated, a clear win that’s still considerably closer than any of his prior six re-election campaigns. Finally, Utah Sen. Mike Lee turned back a prominent challenge from conservative independent Evan McMullin.
● Governors: Democrats Wes Moore and Maura Healey easily won their races to succeed departing Republican chief executives in Maryland and Massachusetts, while the AP has not yet projected any flips for the GOP. The following races remain uncalled as of Wednesday morning:
Democratic incumbents also held on in some key swing states. The tightest victory belongs to Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, who turned back Tim Michels after a very closely watched and pricey race. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Michigan Gretchen Whitmer also prevailed over hardline opponents in contests where some polls showed things tight but the national GOP never made priorities. Illinois incumbent J.B. Pritzker also had no trouble beating far-right Republican Darren Bailey in an election that, thanks to massive spending by Pritzker and conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein, was one of the most expensive of the year.
Team Blue also won some important races in the Northeast. Maine Gov. Janet Mills beat her hardline predecessor, Paul LePage, in a highly anticipated matchup, while New York Gov. Kathy Hochul defeated GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin in a contest that her party began fretting over in the final weeks. Josh Shapiro’s clear victory over far-right Republican Doug Mastriano, meanwhile, marks the first time that either party has won a third consecutive term in the Pennsylvania governor's office since the Truman era, while Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont decisively won his rematch with 2018 rival Bob Stefanowski.
Over in the Rocky Mountains, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham won her expensive and nasty fight against Republican Mark Ronchetti, while Colorado Gov. Jared Polis’ easy victory over Heidi Ganahl gives his party its fifth win in a row in this onetime swing state.
The GOP’s most prominent gubernatorial victory so far comes in Florida, where GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis leads Rep. Charlie Crist 59-40 with most of the vote tallied. Georgia incumbent Brian Kemp also convincingly won his second bout against Stacey Abrams in neighboring Georgia, while Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt scored a double-digit win over Joy Hofmeister in a race that looked far closer than it turned out.
● House: The AP has called 199 seats for the GOP and 177 for Democrats: The latter figure includes five California House contests where two Democrats were on the general election ballot, but it’s not yet clear which won. The remaining 59 constituencies remain unresolved.
Some of these seats are almost certainly uncalled because of slow vote counting. In California’s new 25th District, for example, Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz enjoys a 62-36 edge over his unheralded GOP foe, Brian Hawkins, but the AP estimates that only 30% of the vote is tabulated. Others may result in some genuine shockers when the dust clears: In Colorado’s 3rd, Democrat Adam Frisch posts a 50.6-49.4 lead over far-right Rep. Lauren Boebert with 93% of the estimated vote in, which would be a true upset in this 53-45 Trump constituency.
Republicans so far have flipped seven constituencies to the Democrats’ four. The GOP took six open seats it gerrymandered:
Republican George Santos also scored a pickup in New York’s open 3rd District, while Jen Kiggans unseated Democratic incumbent Elaine Luria in Virginia’s 2nd.
Democrats, meanwhile, flipped open seats for:
Over in Ohio’s 1st, Democrat Greg Landsman ousted veteran Republican Rep. Steve Chabot.
The two incumbent vs. incumbent races were an even split between the two parties. Republican Rep. Neal Dunn defeated Democratic colleague Al Lawson in Florida’s 2nd, which was no surprise as that seat favored Trump 55-44. Democratic Rep. Vicente González, though, came out on top in his far more competitive contest against Republican incumbent Mayra Flores in Texas’ 34th.
Daily Kos Elections will continue to track the developments in all uncalled races on our site, in our daily newsletter, and on Twitter. You can also bookmark our cheat-sheet of key races that we'll keep updating until every race is decided. And we'll bring you coverage of many more races at all different levels of the ballot in the days ahead.