Election Night: Via Chicago: Wisconsin will also host a special election to succeed Republican Alberta Darling, a veteran state legislator who announced her resignation just before Thanksgiving, in the 8th State Senate District in the northern Milwaukee suburbs.
This race, which is the only major election on Tuesday where the candidates’ party affiliations will be listed on the ballot, pits Democrat Jodi Habush Sinykin against Republican state Rep. Dan Knodl. A win for Knodl would give his party a two-thirds supermajority in the upper chamber, and he reminded everyone what that could mean when he said recently that he’d "certainly consider" impeaching Protasiewicz should she win.
Habush Sinykin, who is an environmental attorney, has enjoyed a huge fundraising edge over Knodl, and she’s attacking him over his anti-abortion views. However, she has a difficult job ahead of her if she’s to prevail in a 52-47 Trump constituency that’s home to longtime conservative bastions in the suburbs and exurbs north of Milwaukee. Republicans also carried this seat last year: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson won 54-46 here, according to our calculations, while GOP gubernatorial nominee Tim Michels prevailed over Democratic incumbent Tony Evers here by a smaller 52-48 spread. In February's primary, Kelly and another conservative candidate combined for 54% of the vote while Protasiewicz and a liberal rival together took 46%.
The dynamics are very different in the officially nonpartisan race to succeed Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who was denied the possibility of a second term after she took third in the Feb. 28 primary. The two candidates who did advance, former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, both identify as Democrats, but there's a vast ideological gulf between the two.
Vallas, a backer of charter schools, has positioned himself as the more centrist option. His side has outspent Johnson’s by roughly a 2-1 margin and has run ads arguing that Johnson supports defunding the police. Johnson, who has received heavy support from the Chicago Teachers Union and other labor groups, has in turn utilized 2009 footage of Vallas saying, “If I run for public office, then I would be running as a Republican,” and, “Fundamentally, I oppose abortion.”
Vallas has defended himself by rolling out endorsements from high-profile Democrats like Sen. Dick Durbin and former Rep. Bobby Rush to vouch for his party loyalties. A racial divide could also play a role: Vallas is white while Johnson is Black. Unlike in Wisconsin, there have been a number of polls, most of which have shown a close race. However, the only survey conducted during the final week of the race, from Republican pollster Victory Research, found Vallas ahead 50-45.
Meanwhile, the two largest cities in Colorado, Denver and Colorado Springs, are both hosting crowded races to succeed their respective termed-out mayors, Democrat Michael Hancock and Republican John Suthers. It’s all but guaranteed that no one in either officially nonpartisan contest will earn the majority of the vote needed to win outright. A runoff to lead heavily Democratic Denver would be June 6, while the second round in the longtime conservative bastion of Colorado Springs would take place three weeks earlier on May 16.
There’s been no recent polling in the 16-way race in Denver, but AdImpact says that 80% of ad spending has come from just two contenders and their allies: former state Sen. Mike Johnston and former Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce CEO Kelly Brough, both Democrats. The field includes three sitting elected officials: state Sen. Chris Hansen, state Rep. Leslie Herod, and City Councilperson Debbie Ortega. Also in the running are criminal justice activist Lisa Calderon, investment banker Trinidad Rodriguez, environmental activist Ean Tafoya, and businessperson Andy Rougeot, who is the only Republican campaigning.
The dynamics are similar in Colorado Springs, as three candidates have widely outraised their many opponents: City Councilperson Wayne Williams, who is a former Republican secretary of state; Sallie Clark, who served in the U.S. Department of Agriculture during the Trump administration after losing races for mayor in 1999 and 2003; and businessperson Yemi Mobolade, a "political independent" who would be the first Black person elected mayor. Nine others are also running, including former El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn, who briefly became a right-wing star during his 2016 bid to unseat Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.
Finally, Nebraska Republicans are hoping to unseat Lincoln Mayor Leirion Gaylor Baird, who is one of the few prominent Democrats left in elected office in this red state. The party establishment has largely consolidated behind state Sen. Suzanne Geist, who enjoys a huge financial lead over Christian radio executive Stan Parker. The top two vote-getters in this race, which is also officially nonpartisan, will advance to a second round on May 2.