The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● LA-06: The plaintiffs who challenged Louisiana's congressional map for allegedly violating the Voting Rights Act seem pretty happy with the replacement plan the state's GOP-dominated legislature just passed, but the Republican congressman who was forced to walk the plank is hinting that the battle may continue.
Rep. Garret Graves saw his district dismantled and replaced with a completely different alternative that he could never win. But Graves could instead run against a fellow incumbent—or he could try to block the new map in court by convincing a panel of federal judges it doesn't pass legal muster.
Read more on how Graves could muck with everyone's plans—including which House Republican he'd be most likely to take on—in David Nir's new piece at Daily Kos Elections.
4Q Fundraising
- CA-45: Derek Tran (D): $535,000 raised, $365,000 cash on hand
Senate
● AZ-Sen: It's been a while since we've heard anything from Sen. Kyrsten Sinema about her reelection plans, and, well, there's still nothing new to report. In new remarks to Politico, Sinema claimed she's "not thinking about that at all," despite the candidate filing deadline coming up on April 8, just two-and-a-half months from now.
An informative new piece from Ronald Hansen at the Arizona Republic explains just how daunting Sinema's path to the ballot would be if she did decide to run, though. For starters, Hansen notes that independents must collect about 43,000 valid signatures to qualify, six times the figure that candidates seeking a party's nomination need.
One consultant said such an effort could cost $4 million dollars—if Sinema can even find the help she needs. Now that she's rendered herself persona non grata to her former party, Democratic firms would be unlikely to work with her, potentially forcing her to turn to a Republican outfit. And time is running out: The experts Hansen consulted said that Sinema must begin gathering signatures next month if she's going to try at all.
● MD-Sen: Rep. John Sarbanes has endorsed Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in the Democratic primary for Maryland's open Senate seat, making him the fourth member of the state's congressional delegation to do so. Rep. David Trone, Alsobrooks' chief rival in the race, has received the support of many of his House colleagues, but just one of them, Dutch Ruppersberger, is from his home state. The only Maryland House Democrat who has not yet taken sides is Jamie Raskin, who himself considered a Senate bid.
Governors
● ND-Gov: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who terminated his hopeless presidential campaign last month, announced on Monday that he would not seek a third term as governor. His decision sets up an open-seat race to replace him that has already attracted one entrant into the GOP primary, former state Sen. Tom Campbell, who actually kicked off a bid the day before Burgum's announcement.
Burgum had no political experience prior to his first bid for his current post in 2016, but he did have one thing: a ton of money. He was an early investor in an accounting software company, Great Plains Software, that he soon became president of and eventually sold to Microsoft in 2001 for more than $1 billion.
Those riches gave him the resources to compete with then-Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, who was the choice of the state's GOP establishment in the open-seat race to succeed Gov. Jack Dalrymple. But while Stenehjem (who died in 2022) dominated at the party convention that spring, Burgum trounced him 60-39 two months later in the primary. Burgum easily won the general election in a landslide and handily earned a second term in 2020.
House
● CA-16: San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan has endorsed the man he succeeded in office, fellow Democrat Sam Liccardo, in the open-seat race for California's deep blue 16th Congressional District. The city of San Jose makes up just shy of 40% of the district.
● CA-41: Punchbowl News reports that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries headlined a fundraiser in Southern California on Monday for former prosecutor Will Rollins as he seeks a rematch with Republican Rep. Ken Calvert. Rollins, who lost a close 52-48 contest last year, remains the only notable Democrat running in the swingy 41st District, which includes the southern Riverside suburbs and Palm Springs.
● CO-04: "Anti-abortion GOP lawmaker praises the impact of the abortion he paid for." That's quite the headline for state Rep. Richard Holtorf, one of the Republicans seeking the district that Lauren Boebert just abandoned, in a must-read piece by 9News' Kyle Clark. Better that you click through than that we try to summarize it, because it's as mind-boggling as it sounds.
● IL-17: Former state Judge Joe McGraw, who is one of two notable Republicans running against freshman Democratic Rep. Eric Sorensen in Illinois' swingy 17th District, has earned an endorsement from Rep. Darin LaHood, who represents the neighboring 16th. LaHood appears to be the first member of the state's delegation to take sides in McGraw's primary with farmer Scott Crowl. Local media previously reported that McGraw is the favorite of the GOP establishment.
● MD-02: The newsletter Primary School flags that Democratic Del. Harry Bhandari filed paperwork with the FEC earlier this month for a possible campaign in Maryland's 2nd Congressional District, but he doesn't appear to have said anything publicly about his intentions. The district is currently held by Democratic Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, who has not yet announced whether he'll seek a 12th term. A spokesperson for Ruppersberger, who is 77, told the Baltimore Sun's Sam Janesch in November that the congressman likely would not make a decision "until closer to the Feb. 9 candidate filing deadline."
● MD-03: Labor lawyer John Morse, who recently stepped down from his post as counsel for the Association of Flight Attendants, has joined the exceedingly crowded Democratic primary for Maryland's open 3rd Congressional District. Maryland Matters says that 16 candidates have joined the primary so far, a field that includes five sitting state lawmakers.
● MO-03: Republican state Sen. Travis Fitzwater, who briefly considered a bid for Missouri's open 3rd Congressional District, has announced he will not run.
● NC-06: The far-right Club for Growth, which has a history of spending heavily for its preferred candidates, has endorsed Republican Bo Hines for North Carolina's newly gerrymandered 6th Congressional District. As WRAL's Brian Murphy points out, this sets up yet another showdown between the Club and its frequent bête noire, Donald Trump, who gave his backing to lobbyist Addison McDowell last month—before McDowell had even entered the race (he since has).
● OH-06: Republican Rep. Bill Johnson's resignation became effective on Sunday, leaving the House with 219 Republican members and 213 Democrats. Those figures, though, are set to change further in the coming weeks: Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins, who represents New York's solidly blue 26th District, has said he plans to resign in the first week of February, while the vacancy in New York's swingy 3rd District created by Republican George Santos' expulsion will be filled in a special election on Feb. 13.
The vacancy in California's conservative 20th District, meanwhile, could potentially get resolved as early as March 19, should one candidate win a majority of the vote that day. If not, a runoff between the top two vote-getters seeking to replace former Speaker Kevin McCarthy would take place on May 21. Johnson's safely red seat, finally, will go without representation until a June 11 special.
● SC-03: State Rep. Stewart Jones, a co-founder of the state-level Freedom Caucus in the South Carolina House, has joined the GOP primary for the newly open 3rd Congressional District.
● WI-03: Democratic state Rep. Katrina Shankland, who is hoping to unseat first-term GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin's swingy 3rd District, announced an endorsement from Rep. Mark Pocan on Monday. Pocan represents the neighboring 2nd District.
State Legislatures
● MI Redistricting: The Supreme Court has declined to stay a lower-court ruling ordering Michigan's independent redistricting commission to redraw its map for the state House by Feb. 2 while an appeal is pending.
● NH State House: New Hampshire will host two special elections for its closely divided state House on Tuesday night, both in Coös County, the northernmost county in the state. The county's 1st District is a Republican-held seat that supported Donald Trump 53-45 while its 6th is held by Democrats and backed Joe Biden 55-43. Both elections are taking place simultaneously with the state's presidential primary, but because only the GOP nomination is contested (Biden isn't even on the ballot), it's possible that disproportionate turnout by GOP voters could put the 6th in play.
Republicans currently hold a 198-195 edge in the chamber, while three independents also serve. In addition to the two districts discussed above, two more seats (both of which are safely blue) are vacant.
Mayors
● Bridgeport, CT Mayor: Tuesday also brings us a court-ordered Democratic primary rematch in Connecticut between Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim and challenger John Gomes, who is the city's former city chief administrative officer.
Ganim, whose career has survived numerous scandals―including a seven-year prison stint―appeared to narrowly defeat Gomes in September. However, state election officials later announced that they would investigate a surveillance video in which a woman appeared to repeatedly insert documents into multiple ballot drop boxes.
This will be the third time Ganim and Gomes have faced off in the space of little more than four months. While a judge issued an order in early November calling for a new Democratic primary, he didn't have the power to stop the following week's general election between the mayor and Gomes, who was the nominee of the state's Independent Party. Ganim went on to win that contest 41-40―a margin of 179 votes— but while he's continued to serve as mayor, he was not sworn in for a new term.
The winner will advance to a Feb. 27 general election against Republican David Herz and independent Lamond Daniels, who took a combined 19% in November.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: If you're like us, you looked at the Michigan GOP power struggle and thought, "What this needs is some Pete Hoekstra!" Well, our wishes have been answered: A breakaway faction just tapped the former congressman as their chair, and they're suing to have him recognized over Kristina Karamo, whom they claim to have ousted earlier this month. Karamo disputes her ouster and wants the courts to stay out of the dispute.
Hoekstra has been out of office since losing the Republican primary for governor in 2010 to Rick Snyder, but what you probably remember him for best is the monumentally racist "Debbie Spend-it-now" Super Bowl ad he ran during his failed Senate campaign two years later. Hoekstra had immigrated from the Netherlands as a child, and he later went on to serve as ambassador to that country under Donald Trump, who reportedly called in to the meeting where Hoekstra's bloc was electing a new chair to urge participants to vote for his former envoy.
Trump endorsed Karamo's disastrous bid for secretary of state in 2022 but supported a rival candidate in the ensuing race to run the state GOP.
Correction: This piece incorrectly stated that the Feb. 27 general election would only take place in Bridgeport if challenger John Gomes won the Jan. 23 Democratic primary. It will happen whether Gomes or Mayor Joe Ganim wins the primary.
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