• MO-Gov: YouGov's new survey for Saint Louis University finds Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft leading Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe 28-10 in the August GOP primary, with state Sen. Bill Eigel at 8% and a 49% plurality undecided. This poll was in the field for 13 days from Feb. 14 to Feb. 26, which is one day less than the 14-day maximum that Daily Kos Elections permits for inclusion in the Digest.
YouGov also took a look at the Democratic contest, but it shows that a hefty 66% of respondents are undecided. State House Minority Leader Crystal Quade takes 21%, while businessman Mike Hamra is at 5%.
• CA-09: The NRCC has dusted off a mid-February internal poll from NMB Research that shows the GOP candidate, Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, outpacing Democratic Rep. Josh Harder 44-40. The Washington Examiner, which first reported the survey, did not mention presidential numbers in its writeup, but the National Journal's Hotline says that respondents favor Joe Biden 45-43.
Biden carried this Stockton-based seat 55-43 in 2020, but Republican Brian Dahle took it 52-48 two years later against Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. Despite those 2022 headwinds, though, Harder won his most recent term 55-45 against San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti. He's also currently taking 53% of the vote in this year's primary with an estimated 70% reporting while Lincoln is at 29%.
• CO-05: Donald Trump endorsed state GOP chair Dave Williams on Tuesday evening hours after Speaker Mike Johnson threw his support behind conservative radio host Jeff Crank, who is also competing in the June 25 primary to replace retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn.
Trump also blasted another Crank ally in his social media post touting Williams. Without identifying Crank by name, Trump wrote that Williams' "opponent is Endorsed, and works closely with, Americans for Chinese Prosperity, a Charles Koch Disaster." Last month, Crank earned the backing of Americans for Prosperity, a group that unsuccessfully tried to help Nikki Haley wrest the presidential nomination from Trump.
• MI-08: Businessman Matt Collier, a Democrat who rose to prominence almost four decades ago when he was elected mayor of Flint, announced Wednesday that he was joining the August primary to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in this swing seat.
Collier, who served in the Army Rangers, won the 1987 race to lead Flint at the age of 29, a victory that made him the city's youngest-ever mayor. Collier, though, would lose reelection four years later in a 59-41 rout against fellow Democrat Woodrow Stanley.
In 2013, Collier told MLive.com that he was hurt politically by being the face of a project to build a location for Kessel Foods, a company that unions viewed as anti-labor. The same profile also noted that, while crime fell to its lowest rate in a decade during the first half of his term, it rose during his final two years.
Collier lived in California and identified as an independent when that story was published and went on to serve in the Department of Veterans Affairs during the Obama administration. The candidate says he's since "founded a company to fill transitional healthcare gaps and treatment" and again lives in Flint.
• ND-AL: The newest Republican to announce a campaign for North Dakota's open House seat is former State Department project manager Alex Balazs, who says he served in the Air Force, Navy, and Army during his 25 years in the military. Balazs tells the North Dakota Monitory that, while he'll try to win the GOP's endorsement at the party's April 5-6 convention, he'll continue to the June 11 primary even if he's passed over.
Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak is the only other declared candidate who is taking part in the convention, though she says she'll also run in the primary no matter what. Former state Sen. Tom Campbell, by contrast, is skipping the gathering. The fourth announced Republican, former state Rep. Rick Becker, is barred from seeking the party endorsement because he ran against GOP Sen. John Hoeven as an independent in 2022.
This quartet is hoping to replace GOP Rep. Kelly Armstrong, who is running for governor.
• OH-06: State Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus is airing a transphobic commercial ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary that claims state Sen. Michael Rulli backed legislation "allowing men to use women's bathrooms." Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin predicted this line of attack back in January when he described Rulli as someone who has "carved out a more moderate stance on gay rights issues," noting that Rulli joined with the only gay member of the Senate to cosponsor an anti-discrimination bill and has spoken out "about making the GOP and Ohio more inclusive."
That stance puts Rulli out of step with his party in a cycle in which, as Cleveland.com recently detailed, Republicans across the state are relying on anti-LGBTQ+ messaging to help them win primaries. Rulli and Stoltzfus are competing Tuesday in both the regular and special election primaries to replace Bill Johnson, a fellow Republican who left the House to lead Youngstown State University, in this dark red eastern Ohio district.