I just read what I think for me is the most inspiring article in 2017. Ezra Klein’s interview with campaign manager Joe Trippi gives a credible account of how they could have won even without the molestation allegations against Moore.
“The day before the Washington Post story came out, we were behind by one point, 46 to 45,” says Joe Trippi. “And the day before the election, we were ahead in our own survey by 2 points. We ended up winning by 1.8.”
I really recommend reading the full article. Trippi gives a good account of how their strategy was, and how they thought they might have a good chance of winning, even before the republican primary.
“Trippi says the central insight of the Jones campaign was that many voters, including many Trump-friendly Republicans, are already exhausted by the chaos and hostility of Trump’s Washington, and they're open to alternatives. That was the opportunity Jones exploited, and it’s a lesson Trippi thinks is a model other Democrats could learn from in 2018.”
He goes on about how they ran a successful campaign trying to detribalize the race, and even though the Post story helped in a lot of other ways, it really tribalized the race again.
“The key to us having a chance was to detribalize the politics of the state. If Alabama was reacting to the tribal politics of our times, there was no way for us to win. And in a weird way, the allegations created tribalism again. You either believe the charges or you don't believe the charges. Suddenly, we're back into Republicans who don't believe the charges; it's the media out to get Roy Moore. He's able to start tribalizing the race. Trump begins coming in with him. And every time that happened, Roy Moore would open a lead.”
Trippi goes through how the internal polls change through the entire campaign, and that the Trump rally in Florida gave a 4 point swing to Moore, that had subsided by election day.
“The thing I still wonder about was when Trump went in on Friday, in Pensacola. Man, thank you for not going in Sunday. Because Friday night, Moore went ahead 4 points again; Saturday, it was 3 points; Sunday, it was 2 points. We're sitting there Monday night, going, "Can it keep drifting?" But Monday night, we were up by 2.
But the key to thinking about it, from our point of view, was, "Wait a minute. Four points? That's it? In Alabama?” Trump won by 28 points here 13 months ago! And all he’d do is move Roy Moore from 44 to 48, and we're still at 45, or maybe we drift down to 44. So that's it?”
This really gives me hope! All a full out Trump endorsement, rally, tweets and robocalls could do IN ALABAMA was a 4 point swing. I think in a lot of other parts of the country, the Trump endorsement would actually hurt the republican candidate.
They pulled of a win with high democratic (especially black) turnout, a real swing to Doug with women and people under 45. This could also be the case nationally, with steroids.
“Trump's creating energy among the Democratic base that wants to come out and wants to make the change and wants to do something to fight back against what's happening. At the same time, he's creating enough chaos and divisiveness and hostility that Republicans who would never ordinarily vote for a Democrat say, "Okay, well I've got all the chaos and hostility I can handle right now. I'll vote for somebody who wants to try to find common ground and get things done for me, even if they're a Democrat.”
I think there is something to learn from both Alabama and Virginia. We don’t need the war drums to win. If we have an attack mode that is hard enough, we might actually tribalize the 2018 election and help mobilise the republican base.
The democratic base will be very near fully mobilised. I think a lot of new voters will come to the polls. We will have a serious swing our way among women and young people. Even with those that consider themselves conservative. We do this by being the grown up party, the sanity party, the anti chaos party, the solutions party, the big tent party, and generally not the bat shit crazy party.
Let’s face it. The future of the nation hinges on that we get a monumental win in 2018. Not a win, or a big win, but groundbreaking, earth shattering rejection of Trump and the republican party of today.
To take control of the future of the country, we need to take control of state legislatures, state governments, the House and the Senate. We need a big majority in the House and not just 51 seats in the Senate.
“You saw that coalition coming together for Doug Jones. It was African Americans, women, and people under 45. And you want to know how breathtaking that move is? Think about this. Barack Obama, nationwide, won under-45s, I think, by 14 points, 15 points. Hillary Clinton won them by 14. In Alabama, Doug Jones won them by 28 points. [Ralph] Northam had similar numbers in Virginia.”
A win like this is possible. I think we will win the senate seats in Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee. We have a real shot in Texas, and might even pull off Mississippi. There might also be two senate elections in both Arizona and Mississippi. Given the experience from Alabama, the fact that we will face more really bad republican candidate, that #metoo will force retirements also next year, and, most importantly, by November 2018 Trump will have been president for twice as long as now.
I really think 2018 could be total devastation for the republicans. Let’s play this smart and not with scorched earth. With a coalition of a massive enthusiasm among democrats, and a combination of depression and desertion among republicans we can win much more than with just democrats. And we can use that to take the country to the left. With the experience of Trump in the White Hose for two years, I think even very conservative voters would like what they see from a democratic majority.
And also we have the 2020 census to look forward to.
This article really inspired me. I hope it does for you too. And while we are at it, we have some races coming up early in 2018:
16 January — two state legislature flip opportunities:
Cindy Boatwright running for State House District 99 in South Carolina. Follow here on Facebook and donate to her campaign.
Patty Schachtner running for Senate District 10 in Wisconsin. Follow her on Facebook and donate to her campaign.
Two women running in republican districts. Let’s help them out. There is few places where a few bucks can do as much good as in state legislative races.
13 March — First house special election of 2018
Connor Lamb running for the Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election. He is running a good campaign and is the first chance we have in 2018 to throw eggs in Trumps face for his “5-0” on House elections in 2017.
Follow Connor Lamb on Facebook and donate to his campaign.
