Mike Espy voting in the 2018 Election. Hopefully he'll have more people next to him this time.
In the most recent Daily Kos Elections story on the Senate, Mississippi is rated “Safe Republican.” The Republican incumbent had an 8-point lead in the most recent Civiqs poll, and while previously blood-red Republican states like Texas and Georgia are having their moments in the swing state sun, Mississippi has not garnered any of the attention of its Democratic-curious Southern brethren.
I took issue with the “Safe Republican” rating in the story, noting that a 49-41 lead for CHS was identical the Smith’s lead in MN and identical in margin to Peters’ 50-42 lead in MI (which is actually a better lead, with fewer undecideds) yet both MN and MI are ranked only as “Likely Democratic.”
But there’s a bigger issue here than whether CHS is as safe as Peters/Smith or slightly more safe than them. Because underneath the surface, there are warning signs for Republicans that she’s not safe at all. What are those signs?
Well, let’s start with the candidates. What’s the worst thing for an incumbent to be? Well, unpopular. OK, what’s second worst? Lazy. And oh lawd, is CHS lazy:
What else is going on here?
Finally, as I noted, Mississippi has the highest percentage of Black residents of any state in the country. So if we can compete in Georgia and North Carolina, why not there? Particularly when we’re seeing stuff like this in Georgia:
I don’t think anyone’s watching for this in Mississippi. Why would they? Its a boring race, to everyone except the folks that live there. And me, apparently.
A word of caution: even as I’m offering this contrarian take, I’ll acknowledge that the most likely outcome is a CHS victory. But there’s definitely a chance that, on election night, we’ll all be doing our best P-Valley impression:
“M-i-CROOKED LETTER-CROOKED LETTER-i-CROOKED LETTER-CROOKED LETTER-i-HUMPBACK-HUMPBACK-i!!!!”
(I’m aware that my wife and I might be the only humans who watched P-Valley but the rest of you are missing out).
