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The top 1% knows that every vote matters.

members of the top 1 and .1 percent turned out to vote in 2008 at a whopping 99 percent.
(more)
Unfortunately voter registration and participation among lower income Americans is much lower than the average.
poor people actually don't vote that often. According to a CNN exit poll in 2008, those making less than $15,000 a year made up 13 percent of the population but just 6 percent of voters...
If all income groups had voted evenly, Obama would have beaten McCain 55.2 percent to 42.7 percent, a net gain of 5.3 points relative to what actually happened.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Clearly, nonvoters lean Democratic
A 2012 Pew survey found that likely voters were split 47 percent to 47 percent between Obama and Romney while non-voters preferred Obama 59 percent to 24 percent, a 35 point margin.

Source: http://www.politico.com/...
Differences in voting rates exist along other socioeconomic characteristics as well: e.g. age, gender, educational attainment and race/ethnicity (with Latinos and Asian Americans participating less than whites and African Americans).

Voting disparity across educational levels is still evident within specific age groups. (And level of education is a good proxy for income, given current educational policies.)  

2008 Election Results. Census data presented by CollegeBoard.org


Can the Democratic primary process capture the attention of the country and focus it upon economic issues? Can we end this income disparity in voter turnout?

The groundbreaking nature of Obama's candidacies led to an upsurge in African American turnout in 2008 and 2012 (see two graphics below), suggesting it's possible to also increase turnout among lower income people. Can we preserve those gains in voter turnout and make new ones?

Center for Immigration Studies
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Join the Campaign or Sign up to Volunteer for specific tasks or Sign up for Updates.

To donate: https://secure.actblue.com/...

Stand with Bernie
We are at a moment of truth. We need to face up to the reality of where we are as a nation, and we need a mass movement of people to fight for change.

I believe America is ready for a new path to the future.

Make a contribution to my presidential campaign today. I can't wait to see what we will accomplish together. - Bernie Sanders

Bernie's also on Facebook and Twitter.

There's much more to the campaign website.

For example, there's Bernie On the Issues (excerpts below the fold): https://berniesanders.com/...

There's a page on Bernie's record: https://berniesanders.com/...

There's also a petition to sign, saying "We must overturn Citizens United and move toward public funding of elections."

Peace.

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It's way too hard to unsubscribe from the DCCC e-mail list.

First you have to correctly find one link buried in 100 words of TINY TEXT at the bottom of their e-mail.

Easy enough?
Well, no.

Click that link, and the DCCC sends you to the wrong page!

If you confirm your email address at that page, you just ask for less emails "only a few times a month". They make you read another 100 words to find the correct unsubscribe link, which leads to a second webpage that hopefully works.

The DCCC is violating widely accepted standards for e-mail lists. For example, Gmail states:

A user must be able to unsubscribe from your mailing list through one of the following means:

    A prominent link in the body of an email leading users to a page confirming his or her unsubscription (no input from the user, other than confirmation, should be required).
    By replying to your email with an unsubscribe request.

The DCCC is purposefully violating people's trust. This has got to change.
Continue Reading

Tue Nov 04, 2014 at 05:34 AM PST

Facebook GOTV going on right now

by distraught

On Facebook today, there's a question asking if you've voted. You can say yes, and share this to your friends' profiles. FB automatically includes your picture and a link for your friends to look up their polling place, get directions, and look over their ballot (all candidates, referenda, etc).

Also for Georgia, the Michelle Nunn campaign has setup a specific Facebook tool to GOTV your friends. Have other campaigns done this?

The Georgia tool is available: http://friendoutthevote.com/

In 2010, Facebook tested their approach to voter engagement, and the results showed a statistically significant positive impact:

On the day of the 2010 Congressional elections, Facebook ran an experiment on behalf of a research team based at the University of California San Diego. At the top of 61 million users' news feeds, it placed a banner ad that said "Today is Election Day," linked to information about polling places, and showed pictures of the user's Facebook friends who had already clicked an "I Voted" widget on the site. For another 600,000 users, it placed the same informational message, but without the information about the user's friends who had voted. And a control group of 600,000 users got no message at all.

Several past studies have failed to show a significant correlation between social media activity and real-world behavior. But this one, published in Nature on Wednesday, showed a clear, if modest, trend. Those shown the social message were not only 2 percent more likely to report that they had voted on Facebook than those shown the informational message. They were also 0.4 percent more likely to actually vote, according to public voter rolls that the researchers pored through after the election.

That may not sound like much. But the thing about online messages is that they can reach huge numbers of people. So look at it this way instead: A single banner message on Facebook directly spurred 60,000 more people to vote in the 2010 election than would have voted otherwise. And research on social contagion effects suggests that another 280,000 people were indirectly influenced to vote by the message.*

- Slate

From Nunn's camp:
Michelle Obama said it best: We need to turn out just 50 more voters per precinct on Election Day to help Michelle Nunn win.

Chances are your friends and your family members are those extra voters we need to get to the polls -- and you are the key.

Will you use our brand new "Friend Out The Vote" tool on Facebook to help give some of your friends an extra nudge to vote for Michelle before Tuesday?

Find your key friends and family members who might need an extra reminder to vote for Michelle this Tuesday. Visit www.FriendOutTheVote.com right now!

Our Friend Out the Vote tool is super easy to use. With just a few clicks you can find key friends on your list and remind them to vote for Michelle on Tuesday.

You'll be making crucial voter contacts for Michelle's campaign, and adding that personal touch that no other volunteer can do.
And it will only take a minute or two.

Find those key friends and family members who might need an extra reminder to vote for Michelle this Tuesday. Visit www.FriendOutTheVote.com right now!

You know how Get-Out-the-Vote works. We make calls, knock on doors, and now we take the extra step and Friend-Out-the-Vote too.

Let's make sure there are 50 more voters in every Georgia precinct!

- Catherine Algeri
Digital Director
Nunn for Senate

P.S. Fun Fact: Research has shown that people are more likely to vote when they learn online that their friends have voted. So let's get started! Use our Friend-Out-the-Vote tool right now.

Discuss

Wed Oct 29, 2014 at 08:41 AM PDT

from the New Georgia Project

by distraught

From the New Georgia Project

the judge ruled in favor of the Georgia Secretary of State and against the New Georgia Project, the NAACP and potentially tens of thousands of new registrants caught up in a flawed system.

We are exploring all options with our allies to keep up the fight. But for now, we ask you to spread the word to get out and vote this year—the best way to fight voter suppression is to get out and cast a ballot. Early voting ends this Friday, Halloween, and then polls are open this Tuesday in Georgia at 7am through 7pm. Check out www.GAvotes.org for more information.

Thanks for your support.

-- Team NGP

More details about today’s decision below:

The AJC covered the story of two young people caught up in this system. [see below this email]

"We are deeply disappointed by Judge Brasher's decision, which acknowledges the burdens placed on voters but does not provide them with the relief of knowing that they will be permitted to vote in this election,” shared Representative Stacey Abrams. “The inadequate remedy of a provisional ballot should disturb every Georgian who values the right to vote. The New Georgia Project will continue to pursue all legal avenues available, not only to serve the voters that we know may be silenced in this election, but to bring transparency and progress to those who wish to exercise their franchise in the future."

The ruling followed Friday’s hearing where Judge Brasher heard arguments on the lawsuit that sought a writ of mandamus to require the Secretary of State and three county boards of election to promptly process voter registration applications submitted by eligible voters in time for these citizens to cast a regular ballot in the midterm elections. The plaintiffs continue to demand immediate action to ensure that every voter who submitted a complete and valid application be immediately processed and placed on the rolls. However, arguments from the defendants indicated a lack of urgency about the situation and questioned whether the failure to properly register these voters meets the “extraordinary” requirement for a successful writ of mandamus.

"This is about lifting up the ordinary citizens denied access to the ballot by the Secretary of State's flawed matching system. He actually claims, with a straight face, that he has no duty and no deadline under the law to ensure those voters make it on the rolls,” stated Dr. Francys Johnson, president of the Georgia Conference of the NAACP. “All in all – a republican appointed judge has backed the republican Secretary of State to deny the right to vote to a largely African American and Latino population. It is outrageous that Georgians’ rights are being ignored.”

During the hearing, plaintiffs warned the judge of the consequences of inaction, noting that without timely information, voters will not be able to vote at their assigned precincts and may be forced to cast provisional ballots. Provisional ballots are not frequently counted, leaving the voter without any recourse. Lawyers also noted several deficiencies and discrepancies between the Georgia law and the practices imposed by the Secretary of State.

“It is a sad day when a court shows such a lack of concern for the disfranchisement of citizens who are eligible and eager to vote,” said Barbara Arnwine, President and Executive Director of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. “Our sole concern is ensuring that everyone can exercise their fundamental right to vote without being stonewalled by their own officials,” added Arnwine.

The New Georgia Project, NAACP, and others continue to urge voters to contact their county officials and the Secretary of State’s office to guarantee they can vote by November 4. Additionally, Georgia voters who are confused or concerned about the status of their voter registration application should contact the non-partisan Election Protection national coalition’s 1-866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683) hotline. Election Protection is working with the New Georgia Project to help those who have registered to vote in Georgia but have not received confirmation voter registration cards.

“Early voting in Georgia has been going on for more than two weeks. Each hour and each day that passes, thousands of my fellow citizens may be denied the right to cast a regular ballot through no fault of their own. I cannot imagine a more urgent moral and civic need for action than securing the right to vote. I am deeply disturbed by the court's lack of responsiveness to the voters of this state and the voters in the judge's home county of Fulton,” noted Reverend Dr. Raphael G. Warnock, senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church.

From the AJC:
Diamond Walton, 18, is a bubbly freshman at Columbus State University who is eager to vote for the first time. She applied in August to join Georgia’s voter rolls. She had no idea it would take until this week — three days after she submitted an affidavit in court — to finally get an official state registration card.

The question now is whether her experience is a sign Georgia’s voter registration system works or an exception to a flawed and complicated process.

[snip]
Alexander Lakocy moved to Atlanta on Aug. 5 for graduate school. The next day, he ran into a canvasser for the New Georgia Project and filled out an application to be eligible to vote Nov. 4. It wasn’t until he called Fulton County last week that he discovered he’d been flagged as “pending,” according to a written statement.

Pending voters have to provide more information to confirm their identity. State law also requires first-time Georgia voters such as Lakocy to show identification when they first cast a ballot here — which might be hard since, he said, a county representative suggested she mail him a form so he could request an absentee ballot.

“It’s actually been really shocking to me,” Lakocy said Tuesday. “It’s easy to imagine most of the people who register are not able to be as proactive as I am to verify their registration.”

Fulton officials, meanwhile, said they have no record of receiving an application from Lakocy. They also wouldn’t be able to generate an absentee ballot for him even if he requested one, since he would be rejected as being unregistered.

FYI, if a registration is placed on the pending list, "the board of registrars shall notify the registrant in writing of the missing information" (GA Code). And if the applicant "does not respond to the request for the missing information within 30 days, the application shall be rejected". It looks like Lakocy was rejected (i.e. deleted) from the system. Minus 1 vote. Mission accomplished.

The GA SOS can say all he wants that this is not a "missing" application, but in reality it was a rejected application, where the applicant received no notification.

State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, D-Atlanta, who founded the New Georgia Project, said Tuesday’s ruling is not likely the last legal effort by her group.

New voters such as Walton, in the meantime, may wonder what they got into.

“I just wanted to vote,” she said. “I didn’t think it would take all this work.”

We have no idea how many voter registrations are eventually rejected (i.e. deleted) from the pending lists. Of those 40,000+ registrations, thousands are reportedly on pending lists (while 30 days elapses). But how many were already rejected/deleted?
Discuss

An academic at the University of Florida is following early voting around the country.
http://www.electproject.org/...

Nunn's campaign and Michelle Obama previously said we need to turnout 137,000 total votes or 50 voters per precinct from our midterm drop-off voters--those that didn't vote in 2010 but voted in 2012. To be safe, a campaign memo said to aim for 200,000 new voters, assuming a total turnout of 2.7 million.

------------------------------------------------
Update: All numbers now reflect new data available on 10/28.
Original title was: "With 1/6 of votes in, we're probably 1/4 (conservatively 1/6) of the way to winning"
------------------------------------------------

Early vote (EV) numbers show that 440,554 522,364 have voted so far, or 16.3% 19.3% of 2.7 million.

Participation, including Sunday's Monday's returns, has African Americans (AA) at 30.13%, whites at 59.85% and 8.89% unknown.

FYI, some voter demographics are unknown because the professor's oldish voter file does not include new registrations from 2013 and 2014. During these last years, AA representation among registered voters increased from 28.7% in 2012 to 30.0% today.

Among the 77.6% of people that voted in 2010 (343,186 405,481), EV turnout is 65.0% white, 30.9% AA and 3.0% unknown. Among the 22.4% of people that didn't vote in 2010 (97,368 116,883), turnout is 40.3% white and 28.2% AA, with 29.3% unknown.

If you (conservatively) assume that 1/3 of "unknown" voters are AA, then 38.0% of these new midterm voters are AA (.333*29.3+28.2). There's around a 90% level of support for Michelle Nunn, resulting (i.e. .38*116,883*.9) in 39,974 'new' voters.

Right there, that's 29.2% of the 137,000 needed or 20.0% of 200,000. And I can attest that the ground-game is trying to mobilize ALL of our midterm drop-off voters.

We need volunteers to pull this off. The GOTV infrastructure is in place.

Continue Reading

#LetUSVote

Today people sat-in in Brian Kemp's office in Atlanta, protesting over the 40,000 voter registrations that may be missing.

--
8 activists arrested in Brian Kemp's office. Civil rights leaders including the head of the GA NAACP spoke out and protested.

----

They need our support. If you're on twitter, do your thing.

Continue Reading

Last night's debate was broadcast statewide (video). David Perdue belittled his company's $19 million settlement for gender discrimination and unfairly paying 2,000 women.



Perdue was at Dollar General for four years until leaving in July 2007, and the case covered pay discrimination beginning February 2006, while Perdue was in charge. In contrast, Michelle Nunn supports equal pay for equal work through the Paycheck Fairness Act.



---

And Perdue called the minimum wage a "political expedient". He once again showed his opposition to ANY minimum wage standards, after Nunn grilled him.



Nunn eloquently and humbly said

We just disagree about the economics of this, and it doesn't mean that I don't understand business. You've told the citizens of Georgia, when they question your outsourcing career, that they don't understand business. But we do understand business, and I actually do understand what it means to raise the minimum wage. I know that in states right now where they have raised the minimum wage, they actually have greater economic growth and greater jobs than Georgia. Georgia has right now--as you well know--the highest unemployment rate in the nation. And so, we do know a thing or two, those of us that disagree, about business.




---

And of course Perdue's career in outsourcing took center stage. Nunn to Perdue: "You've said that people, who question the outsourcing career you have, just don't understand business. So could you tell us and the people, who lost their jobs in places like Cartersville and Calhoun and Milledgeville, just a little bit more about business?"



Nunn's response:
So David, the facts are very clear and they are in a deposition under oath that you said that you spent the majority of your career outsourcing. There were 16 different countries that were listed where you created jobs: India, and Pakistan, China. And whether it's with Gitano or Sara Lee or Haggar, you do have a pattern, here, of outsourcing jobs. So I think that's just the question of: you've run on a business career, and so people deserve to know what that business career involves.

Continue Reading

DKE is not simulating a Georgia runoff because

there aren't enough pollsters putting out samples that include both a Nunn/Perdue/Swafford permutation and a permutation that's Nunn/Perdue alone. None of the five [now 6] most recent polls, for instance, have that.
.

DKE's current mashup of polls has Nunn 48.6%, Perdue 47.0% and Swanson (L) 4.4%.

Today's 29% chance of Michelle Nunn winning is the chance Nunn wins outright on Nov 4th, avoiding a runoff. Perdue's chances as of Monday were just 13%! Nunn was at 27% then, for a 40% chance of an outright winner on Nov 4th.

29% divided by 40%, results in a 72.5% chance of Nunn winning if there's an outright winner.*

*If you assume Perdue held steady at 13%, then there's a 69% chance that Nunn's the winner IF there's an outright winner.

Continue Reading

Last week, Georgia's Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp claimed (video) there is no problem with unprocessed voter registrations, after he was taken to court by the NAACP and the New Georgia Project over outstanding voter registration applications. The NGP had been unable to locate 56,001 voters as of of October 6, on any of the SoS lists for active voters or pending voter registrations.

Remember, Kemp previously lied to the public regarding this case (originally claiming he received complaints of irregularities from 6 counties, when only one of those complaints was actually regarding the New Georgia Project). This was revealed by Open Records requests originally submitted by RiotLibrarian of DailyKos and subsequently duplicated yesterday by an Atlanta TV network affiliate, 11Alive.

Records obtained by 11Alive News tell a different story. An October 9 Open Records Act request shows a total of seven voter registration complaints made in 2014 to the Secretary of State's office. Only one of them, from Butts County, complains about "individuals canvassing voters."

"There was only one complaint related to the New Georgia Project," said Rep. Stacey Abrams, who leads the New Georgia Project. "The rest were related to people who had tried to vote."

"I call into question why (Kemp) took such an aggressive action based on a single complaint that he was notified about in June," Abrams said.

A spokesman for the Secretary of State says there are more records of complaints, but they are exempt from the Open Records Act because they are part of an ongoing investigation. He claims the investigation spans 14 counties -- but can't document them now

When RiotLibrarian submitted the request, the SoS first denied it claiming the complaints "are exempt from disclosure...as they are records of pending investigations".  But our local librarian "appealed, pointing out that incident reports are NOT exempt from disclosure as public records under Georgia law" forcing the SoS to release said complaints. So the burden was on Kemp's office to release the incident reports to back up their claims.

Let's see what happens before believing Kemp.

They'll be in court this Friday.

And:

The 11Alive News report came hours after Abrams and supporters held a press conference [yesterday] as part of continued efforts to highlight what they’ve said are over 40,000 newly registered voters who still have not been added to the rolls.
---
In a statement released Tuesday [yesterday], Julie Houk of the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights, which worked with NGP on the lawsuit, said the group is still upset about “systemic problems” with the state’s voter registration system.

“We remain concerned that there are Georgians not accounted for on any list and that even those who are properly registered are not receiving voter registration cards and notification of polling places in a timely manner,” Houk said.

Continue Reading

Michelle Nunn posed a debate question to David Perdue about the minimum wage. Perdue twice refused to answer if the minimum wage should even exist, and he refused to answer what specific level the minimum wage should be.

Perdue opposes any increase to the minimum wage, although he'll flip cartwheels to avoid saying it. And voters still don't know if Perdue wants to eliminate the minimum wage.

Would he eliminate it? Decrease it?

Video (with transcript below):

10/7/14

Nunn:
So David, I have said throughout the campaign that I support raising the minimum wage. You've run a company with thousands of employees that make the federal minimum wage, and you have opposed raising the minimum wage. So I would like to ask you, what do you think that the federal minimum wage should be, specifically?

Perdue:
Well, let's talk about the minimum wage. We've proven time and again that this is about jobs and about supply and demand for those jobs. If you get the economy growing, all rates go up because we have more people, more demand for people working. The problem right now is that my opponent wants to tear me down in terms of my business career. Let's talk about what she really stands for.  [In summary: Obama, Obama, boo!]

Moderator: Ms Nunn, 30 second rebuttal.

Nunn:
David you did not answer my questions.  So let me ask it again. You made in a single day working at Dollar General what it took one of your employees, making a minimum wage, a whole year to make.  So let me ask you again. Do you believe that we should have a federal minimum wage, and specifically, what do you think it should be?

Perdue:
As I've said, this minimum wage is a giant... If you increase the minimum wage the way this President has done already, you do it unilaterally, you will kill jobs in this country. It's been proven that over and over again. This is why this President wants bigger government, higher taxes, more regulation. This is the plan that my opponent supports

[end]
Video of Perdue's second answer is available from the TV host, at ~8m.

Too bad Perdue stopped mid-sentence: "This minimum wage is a giant..."

A giant what?

Barring a more specific answer, it's reasonable to report that Perdue is opposed to any minimum wage. He sure implied it. See, it's supply and demand. If there are unemployed people, then all we have to do is decrease the minimum wage and voila.  

Perdue, he'll tighten the screw. Oppose the minimum wage, slash government services that support workers, oppose Medicaid coverage for 600,000 Georgians.

While Perdue would leave us scraps, Gov Deal (R) sold his scrapyard for ~$4 million after securing a 20 year no-bid contract with the state government worth $6 million. Deal's lobbying for that contract led him to drop-out of the US Congress in 2010 under the threat of investigation.

And it's likely Deal will make a further $5 million from the sale of the land that he's currently renting. BTW, Deal's state ethics complaints didn't even center on this example of corruption.  Nathan Deal punished members of the ethics commission, investigating his personal enrichment using 2010 campaign funds. A heavily intimidated ethics commission fined Deal just $3,350 for non-disclosure, but eventually members of the ethics commission (who were fired, threatened and demoted) were awarded $3 million in legal settlements from the state.

Poll

David Perdue is a giant...

18%9 votes
6%3 votes
24%12 votes
0%0 votes
36%18 votes
4%2 votes
10%5 votes

| 49 votes | Vote | Results

Continue Reading

DailyKos Elections:

We calculate Nunn's odds of winning outright as 27 percent, and Perdue's odds as 13 percent. (That's thanks to Nunn having taken a small lead in our trendlines, after leading the two most recent polls of the race, from SurveyUSA and GAPundit.com.)
So Nunn's overall chances of victory are at 67.5%, if you want to assume no runoff drop-off. Edit: and assume equal allocation of Libertarians.

27 / (27+13) = 67.5
67.5*.4 = 27% (outright Nunn victory)
67.5*.6 = 40.5% (runoff w/ Nunn victory)

But according to DailyKos Elections "our model allows for a Nunn win only in November; any trip to a runoff counts as a loss".

What the %^&*

If we turnout, we are favorites. Couldn't the DailyKos Elections staff make this a bit more clear--that we can be considered 68% favorites if turnout holds steady--instead of giving Nunn a zero percent chance in the runoff!? Seriously now.

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