Barack Obama on Fox News

DaveOinSF

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Tuesday February 05, 2008 · 1:09 PM PST

2008/02/05 · 13:09

For no particular reason, I thought I'd share two videos of Barack Obama on Fox News.

DaveOinSF

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday February 02, 2008 · 6:14 PM PST

2008/02/02 · 18:14

California will send 441 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. 370 will be determined by the primary election on Tuesday, of which 241 will be determined at the Congressional District Level. As we saw in Nevada, whether a district has an even or odd number of delegates will count a lot towards whether the popular vote winner there actually will get a delegate advantage.

There are 53 Congressional Districts in California. 21 will send an odd number of delegates to the national convention - 2 CDs with 3 delegates and 19 with 5. Any delegate who carries any of these CDs will automatically get a 1-delegate advantage. However, it will be extremely difficult for either candidate to win by a sufficiently large amount to gain a 3-delegate advantage over the other.

The other 32 congressional districts all have an even number of delegates. Unless whoever wins that district does so by a near landslide, whoever wins the district will not win an advantage in the number of delegates. Of these 32 districts, six will send 6 delegates to the national convention and the rest will send 4.

Here's a look at all 53 districts in California and who I predict will come out ahead.

DaveOinSF

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Monday January 28, 2008 · 8:39 PM PST

2008/01/28 · 20:39

From www.hillaryclinton.com:

DaveOinSF

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Sunday January 27, 2008 · 6:50 PM PST

2008/01/27 · 18:50

It seems that way back on September 30, while (innocently?) breaking his pledge not to campaign in the State of Florida, Sen. Obama came out in favor of seating the Flordia delegation.

According to Sanchez and Tom Scarritt, Obama was asked during the event about making sure Floridians have a role in the nomination, despite the DNC sanctions and the pledge. Scarritt said Obama responded that he'll "do what's right by Florida voters."

Link

So does he now have a new position? Does he no longer support "doing what's right"?

Candidate with best chance to win? Let the market decide.

DaveOinSF

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Wednesday October 03, 2007 · 10:59 PM PDT

2007/10/03 · 22:59

So the Tradesports people have futures markets for various Election 2008 scenarios. Among the contracts up for bid are the likelihood of the various candidates becoming the Democratic/Republican nominee and the likelihood of the various candidates of becoming president.

So I figure that some combination of these two contracts will reveal who the market thinks is the strongest candidate for either party. Say, for instance, the contract for Joe Schmoe becoming the Democratic nominee is trading at 25 and the contract for Mr. Schmoe becoming president is trading at 13. It stands to reason, then, that the market is essentially telling us that should Schmoe actually become the nominee, he has a 13/25 = 52% chance of winning.

DaveOinSF

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Tuesday November 07, 2006 · 9:27 PM PST

2006/11/07 · 21:27

CNN.com has Webb with 9050 votes in Isle of Wight County, whereas the Virginia state website has him at 5050 votes. Allen votes agree in both places, with 6984 votes.

CNN: http://www.cnn.com/...

VA: http://sbe.vipnet.org/...

Based on other races, the number of votes cast in the district is closer to 12000 than 16000. Thus, CNN has made a mistake, overestimating Webb by 4000 votes.

Doesn't mean Webb won't still win, since VA hasn't yet taken into account all of Arlington, Fairfax, or Richmond, and CNN hasn't yet taken into account Charlottesville and the outstanding precincts in Arlington and Fairfax, but Webb is still trailing by less than 1000 votes.

When this gets fixed, I don't want to hear anything about fraud. I found this error by comparing the two websites' returns for the vote results Read More

Is Connecticut the first Primary of 2008?

DaveOinSF

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Thursday August 17, 2006 · 12:04 PM PDT

2006/08/17 · 12:04

Is it just me, or has the Lamont-Lieberman general election campaign just transformed itself into the first Democratic primary of the 2008 presidential election? Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that the powers that be are falling all over themselves to support Ned Lamont, but it seems that a rather curious cast of characters connected by a certain common ambition have really thrust themselves into the forefront of this ongoing melodrama. Read More

Lamont Math

DaveOinSF

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Wednesday August 09, 2006 · 7:27 PM PDT

2006/08/09 · 19:27

OK so Joementum lost and is taking his ball and going home. Republicans are trying to rally around him, while the Democratic establishment thus has said all the right things in supporting Lamont.

In any case, I calculated what would happen under varying scenarios of how much of the GOP vote Lieberman gets and how much of the Lieberman vote Lamont gets if Lieberman for Lieberman remains on the ballot. Read More

Flag Burning Amendment - Senate Roll Call

DaveOinSF

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Wednesday June 22, 2005 · 1:03 PM PDT

2005/06/22 · 13:03

So the Flag Burning Amendment passed the House today, as it has done several times over the past 15 years or so. The leaves the Senate as the next line of defense for the first amendment. Recent reports suggest that the Senate is dangerously close to reaching the 67 votes needed to pass this abomination. So let's do the math. Read More

Here's what an Outlying Data Point Looks Like

DaveOinSF

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday June 03, 2005 · 1:19 PM PDT

2005/06/03 · 13:19

Almost as soon as the polls closed (indeed, even before they did) there were news reports of confused voters who, seemingly through no fault of their own, had suddenly become disenfranchised.

It was November 2000, Palm Beach, Florida. And hundreds of retirees were claiming that the confusing, infamous and illegal "butterfly ballot" had caused them to vote for Pat Buchanan instead of Al Gore.

Reports on the "butterfly ballot" made for a an interesting series of anecdotes immediately in the wake of the 2000 election. But did it really have as great an impact like these people said it did? Read More

Andrew Sullivan - Master of Local Minima

DaveOinSF

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday May 28, 2005 · 2:14 PM PDT

2005/05/28 · 14:14

Coalition Deaths per Day:

Source: Iraq Coaltion Casualty Count Read More

Iraq War Dead

DaveOinSF

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 18, 2005 · 11:12 AM PDT

2005/05/18 · 11:12

Pay no attention to the recommended diary which purports that the military is not counting those who die in Germany or in the US of injuries sustained in Iraq as among the official Iraq War Dead.

Here's a couple media reports of some of our fallen soldiers: Link

May 10, 2005

* 1st Sgt. Michael J. Bordelon, 37, of Morgan City, La., died at Brooke Army Medical Center, San Antonio, Texas, from injuries sustained April 23 in Mosul, Iraq, when a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonated near his Stryker military vehicle.
Read More

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Barack Obama on Fox News

A look at California Delegates

Hillary Clinton responds to the State of the Union Address

Obama at Florida Press Conference: I'll "Do What's Right" by Florida Voters

Candidate with best chance to win? Let the market decide.

VA-SEN - Mistake at CNN.com in Webb's favor, but Webb leads now anyway

Is Connecticut the first Primary of 2008?

Lamont Math

Flag Burning Amendment - Senate Roll Call

Here's what an Outlying Data Point Looks Like

Andrew Sullivan - Master of Local Minima

Iraq War Dead