Okay, so, I'm not a mathematician, and this is taking me a while to write, and by the time I'm done writing it, I'm going to be wrong, but nonetheless, by my math, Obama is about to win Indiana. And he can do it even if Lake County only gives him 55% support.
Math follows.
Update 1: I totally missed Union County having totally failed to release any results
at all yet. Obviously this will skew the math a little bit. Anyone know how many people live there?
Update 2: Union county has 9,000 residents, give or take. I'm fixing the math to assume they all vote for Clinton. Now I predict that Obama will need a total of 56% support in Lake County to win. Which I predict will happen.
Update 3: Going to bed. I think there are a couple flaws in my math. First, I assume that % results = % of population, not % of voting places. So I probably calculated wrongly about number of voters. Second, I assumed that all of the county would vote like had been reported so far, and Gary is apparently not that representative of the rest of the county (and is also almost all reported). So I could be terribly, terribly wrong. But I'm still calling Obama in a squeaker.
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