Respondents Still Love Bernie Sanders, Trends Aren't Favoring Donald Trump
Some new polling data from Gallup continues to show what we have seen from very early on in this election cycle: Bernie Sanders is the public's most favorable presidential candidate. Regardless of your preference for Sanders or Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary, the trends in the Gallup polls show lots of good news for Democratic supporters and troubling news for Republican Donald Trump. If these trends continue in their current directions, a Trump victory will be incredibly difficult, if not impossible.
Bernie Sanders continues to be the only candidate with a favorable rating higher than his unfavorable. The latest data shows Sanders at 49% favorable, up four points in the past two weeks. His unfavorable comes in at 37% right now, which has essentially been the same since mid-April. There has also been little change in recent weeks in the favorable and unfavorable ratings for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
While there is some positive news for the GOP front-runner, there's much more bad news overshadowing the good. Let's start with the good. Trump's unfavorable rating has trended down from David Duke-like levels since mid-April and his favorable rating among Republicans has come up as his competition for the nomination disappeared. Republicans have come to accept their fate and many are rallying behind Trump, as expected.
But other indicators should be terrifying Trump and his supporters. When asked if any candidate has ideas to address respondents' most important problem, Republicans answering 'yes' has come down 8 points since January. Meanwhile, Democratic respondents have come up 9 points in the same time. This is probably an indication of the quality of the debates, where we saw the Democrats stay on issues while the Republicans debated the size of body parts. It could also be a sign of those that have lost faith on the Republican side as their preferred candidate lost out to Trump.
When asked if there is a candidate that would make a good president, the trends are great for Democrats again. The 'yes' for Republicans has come down a staggering 15 points since January. Democrats have increased their confidence on this question by eight points in the same time. Again, another clear indication of lost faith by conservatives as Trump has become the only option.
Finally, the satisfaction with the United States is showing good news for Democrats in November. Both Republican and Democratic satisfaction has increased since January by 7 points and 3 points, respectively. While satisfaction among Republicans is still at only 15%, the upward trend could mean more Republicans choose to stay home on election day in favor of holding their noses and supporting Donald Trump.
We are still a long way away from election day, but things are looking better and better for the eventual Democratic nominee each week. Bernie Sanders has the easier path at the moment, but a Hillary Clinton presidency still looks likely. And current trends show Donald Trump has much more of a mountain than a molehill to climb to reach the White House.
Anything can happen between now and then and Hillary Clinton clinching the nomination over Bernie Sanders could tighten the trends in the same way we've seen with Republicans. (Unless, of course, she were to choose Sanders as her running mate. Unlikely, but we can dream.) But for now, things are looking very good for the White House to stay in the hands of Democrats for the next four years.
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