Alot of the polls have been “off” this year, none more than Michigan. While its true that some of it is bad polling, underestimation of independents, likely voter models being outdated, I think there is some evidence of polls being manipulated by respondents. I don’t know how to otherwise explain the recent Emerson results…
First, the two primary races. I assume that these are “valid”.
New York Republican Presidential Primary Emerson Trump 56, Kasich 17, Cruz 22 Trump +34
New York Democratic Presidential Primary Emerson Clinton 56, Sanders 38 Clinton +18
Trump should obviously do the best in his own home state. If he cant get 50% here, then where would he be expected to?
I’m not sure Clinton is actually up 18, but lets go with that for now. After all, the inconsistency comes in the later match-ups…
New York: Trump vs. Clinton Emerson Clinton 54, Trump 36 Clinton +18
Trump gets destroyed in his home state, despite crushing his republican opponents. Ok… then by that measure his opponents should do worse…
New York: Cruz vs. Clinton Emerson Clinton 58, Cruz 30 Clinton +28
So Far so good….
New York: Kasich vs. Clinton Emerson Clinton 48, Kasich 41 Clinton +7
Say what ??????????
So Clinton has the worst result against the guy who cannot possibly win, in the home state of BOTH Trump and Clinton (not actually home, but kinda sorta)
For the record, Sanders also wins against Trump and Cruz
New York: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 51, Trump 38 Sanders +13
New York: Cruz vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 56, Cruz 29 Sanders +27
Notice….no Sanders vs Kasich result.
Sanders has typically “led” Kasich in prior matchups, (RCP average +2.2) although that varies from poll to poll and Kasich has won some. Had we seen a match-up between them here, it might explain alot. For instance, If Sanders was beating Kasich by “more” than Clinton was, it would show that Sanders supporters en masse would support Kasich. It makes no logical sense for Clinton primary voters to abandon her for Kasich.
But surely that cannot explain the entire result? Kasich, who finishes last in NY, where both front runners have 56% in the same poll, does better than anyone else?
Why did Emerson not include Sanders vs Kasich? How is it that Kasich does so well in NEW YORK where a 56% front runner drops to 36-38%. Trump should do the best in NY vs Clinton or Sanders, even if its still a blowout. Starting at 56%, shouldn’t he be at 42% or so….
Or is it people saying they support Trump in the Primary...only to support Clinton or Sanders in the General????