New liveblog posted 435PM CST 2-27-11: Click here
Severe Weather Liveblog is a collective effort to keep Kossacks safe when a large severe weather outbreak takes place. These blogs will be posted as needed, based on user-interaction (comments) and duration of the severe weather event.
If you have emergency information that needs to be added to the diary (reports of tornadoes on the ground, emergency information telephone numbers, etc.), please indicate so in the subject line of the comment.
Right now, aside from myself, the editors of Severe Weather Liveblog are boatsie and Predictor. If you'd like to help, drop me a message.
Please keep in mind that any Severe Weather Liveblogs posted are not places for tasteless cracks at other people's expense. Post cheap political/social shots towards those affected at your own risk.
Contents:
Today's Outlook
Tomorrow's Outlook
Watches
Links
Updates
The severe weather is starting to flare up, and the action will continue to explode throughout the day/night. I'm going to try to keep this diary a little less wordy and a little more updated than the last one.
I will post these diaries at a 2 or 3 hour interval, if the weather keeps up at that pace OR if one of the liveblogs sticks and gets really active. This is one of those days where you'll either really love or really hate the unlimited diary rule. ;)
This is likely to be an overnight event, happening after sunset tonight and continuing well into tomorrow morning. Storms at night are even more dangerous than during the day, because most of the time you can neither see nor, if your asleep, hear the severe weather coming at you until it's too late. Now is a good time to make sure your weather radio is in good working order in case you need to wake up tonight. If you don't have a weather radio, leave your TV or AM/FM radio on overnight so you can hear the Emergency Alert System if a warning is issued.
Today's Outlook:
Here's the outlook area:
Area outlined in green is under a "slight risk" for severe weather, area in red is "moderate risk." Click image to go to outlook page on SPC's website.
From the text of the outlook*, the SPC has delineated two areas for the potential for severe weather:
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MOVE AND/OR DEVELOP EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
------------
A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM THE VICINITY OF A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY WITH A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH.
Tornado threat today:
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point on the map. The hatched area indicates an increased possibility of strong EF2-EF5 tornadoes. Click image to go to SPC site, hover over "Tornado" for latest update.
Hail threat today:
Probability of 1" or larger hail within 25 miles of a point on the map. Click image to go to SPC site, hover over "Hail" for latest update.
Wind threat today:
Probability of 50 knot (58 MPH) wind gusts or greater within 25 miles of a point on the map. Click image to go to SPC site, hover over "Wind" for latest update.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
The severe threat will move east tomorrow morning as the line of severe thunderstorms advances towards the mid-Atlantic. The bullseye looks to be over Tennessee and Kentucky, as well as parts of West Virginia, Virginia, North & South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama.
Tomorrow's severe weather outlook from the SPC. Click the image to read the text of the outlook on the SPC's website.
Here's the likelihood for severe weather, again, showing the bullseye right in the moderate risk area:
Probability for severe weather tomorrow. Significant severe weather possible in the hatched area.
Watches
Red = Tornado Watch ... Blue = Severe T'storm Watch ... Click image to go to SPC watch page.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch -- #20 -- Expires 900PM CST -- Parts of Kansas & Missouri
Tornado Watch -- #21 -- Expires 900PM CST -- S. Kansas & N. Oklahoma
Links
Click HERE to read my rant about why you need a weather radio. Click it. Dooo eeet.
National Weather Service
Storm Prediction Center
Wunderground
FEMA
American Red Cross
Salvation Army
Keep checking this diary throughout the day for updates. A new Severe Weather Liveblog will be posted as the situation warrants, or when this diary hits 200 comments, whichever comes first.
Updates
Updated by weatherdude at Sun Feb 27, 2011, 03:09:15 PM
UPDATE 1: The SPC is thinking about issuing a tornado watch for the Memphis area later this afternoon:
According to the discussion:
NEXT 1-2 HRS WILL BE MONITORING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OVER NERN AR AND WRN TN AND A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. IF/ONCE UPDRAFTS BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AN ENSUING ISOLD TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST.
UPDATE 2: (235PM CST)
SPC thinking about issuing a tornado watch over southeastern Kansas/northern Oklahoma now:
SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EVOLVING THREAT.
UPDATE 3: (309PM CST)
Severe thunderstorm warning up for a few counties in Kansas right now. Quarter sized hail and 60 MPH winds possible. The storm is moving at highway speeds, going northeast at 70 MPH. The forward movement of the storm will amplify any winds it produces.
Click to enlarge.
Also, a new tornado watch has been issued and I've updated the watches above to reflect the update.
UPDATE 4: (329PM CST)
That storm over eastern Kansas looks like it has a ton of hail in it. The white returns on the radar is more than likely from the radar beam bouncing off the hail instead of off raindrops. NWS reporting ping pong ball size hail in a few places out of this cell. Several more warnings issued with this storm.