Independent Greg Orman
Leading Off:
• KS-Sen, Gov: PPP returns to the Sunflower State and finds both races closer than a month ago. In the U.S. Senate contest, they find independent Greg Orman leading Republican Sen. Pat Roberts 44-41. With this poll included, Huffpost Pollster's average for this race is 44-43 Roberts, but the numbers for this contest have been all over the map recently. Since Oct. 1 we've seen everything from a 10-point Orman lead (Marist) to a 5-point Roberts' edge (FOX).
PPP's last poll from mid-September found Orman up by a gigantic 46-36. That poll was taken before the ad war really began and Roberts and his allies began portraying Orman as a secret Democrat. Since then Republicans have begun coming home to Roberts: They support him 62-25, still not great but better for him than his 57-31 margin in September. Orman is far better known than he was a month ago, but that's not a good thing. Orman's favorable rating went from 39-19 to 42-38, and it looks like most of the people who have learned about him have not heard good things. Roberts' approval rating is still bad but it has moved up a bit, going from 29-46 in September to 37-47 now.
One thing hasn't changed though: Roberts remains his own worst enemy. The Wichita Eagle reports the senator can't even pay taxes on his non-Kansas home properly. The paper tells us that Roberts has been late with payments in four of the past six years, including this year. The best part, though, is that after the Eagle called him up for this story, Roberts claimed he'd sent his check in on time—but then went online and paid electronically anyway, plus the late fee. Could someone please tell me why it's apparently so incredibly hard for politicians to pay their property taxes?
Speaking of politicians who have gotten into trouble over taxes, PPP also checks in on the gubernatorial race. Head below the fold for more.
While Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is still in trouble largely due to his tax cuts and the brutal budget cuts that followed, the gubernatorial race has also moved in the GOP's direction. PPP finds Brownback and Democrat Paul David tied at 42 percent apiece, down from Davis' 42-38 lead in September. With this poll included, Davis holds a 47-46 lead in HuffPost Pollster's average. Since Oct. 1 we've seen everything from an 8-point David lead (Gravis) to a 6-point Brownback lead (FOX).
Like Roberts, Brownback is improving among Republicans, but only by a five-point margin. However, Davis' image has taken a bit of a hit. In September he posted a 38-26 favorable rating but now voters are evenly divided on him at 39-39. The good news for Democrats is that Brownback's poor numbers have barely moved: He sits on a 38-54 approval rating, compared to a 36-53 rating a month ago.
PPP also takes a look at the secretary of state's contest and finds that it has also moved toward the GOP. Republican incumbent Kris Kobach leads Democrat Jean Schodorf 47-41, up from his September 43-42 margin. SurveyUSA also showed Kobach's numbers on the rise. Kobach made a bit of news in the last few weeks as he unsuccessfully tried to force the state Democratic Party to field a candidate in the Senate race after their nominee drooped out. The whole matter doesn't seem to have done Kobach any damage and may even have helped him. Kobach is still vulnerable, but it looks like he has opened up a lead in recent weeks.
3Q Fundraising:
• GA-Sen: Michelle Nunn (D): $4.15 million raised; $4.2 million raised (plus $500,000 self-loan)
• FL-Gov (Sept. 27 to Oct. 3): Rick Scott (R-inc): $2.4 million raised, $3.4 million spent, $8.1 million cash-on-hand; Charlie Crist (D): $1.9 million raised, $3.4 million spent, $6 million cash-on-hand
• Senate (Sept.): DSCC: $16 million raised, $27 million spent, $13.2 million cash-on-hand; NRSC: $15.5 million raised
Senate:
• IA-Sen: On Saturday a new Selzer & Associates poll on behalf of the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics confirmed what almost every pollster has been saying for months: We have a close race in Iowa for U.S. Senate. Selzer's new numbers give Republican Joni Ernst a 47-46 lead over Democrat Bruce Braley. Ernst is marginally more popular, posting a 47-44 favorable rating to Braley's 44-43.
Selzer's last poll from two weeks ago gave Ernst a 44-38 lead, and raised more than a few eyebrows. Selzer is a very respected pollster and they have a very good, albeit small, record for accuracy. While a 1-point deficit shouldn't have Democrats jumping for joy, this survey at least confirms that Ernst isn't running away with the lead.
It's hard to believe that Braley surged 5 points in the space of a week, especially since almost other pollster has shown a tight race for months. What's much more likely is that the first poll was simply off and Ernst was never up 6. That's not necessarily Selzer's fault. Outliers do happen even when a pollster does everything right. It's also plausible that this swing is just due to movement within the margin of error.
All of this is a good reminder that we should never let a single poll define our perception of a race, even if it comes from a well-regarded pollster. If one survey gives us surprising numbers, the best thing to do is to wait for conformation from more pollsters. In this case, most other groups (with the exception of the conservative pollster Magellan and the ridiculous pollster Gravis) still showed a tight race and Selzer soon joined them. Waiting for new information can be frustrating, but it's better than jumping to the wrong conclusions based off of just one poll.
• SD-Sen: Larry Pressler is just priceless. After getting booted from the Senate in 1996, Pressler settled into the comfortable but boring life of a lobbyist, and it wasn't long before he started talking about re-entering politics—as mayor. Of Washington, D.C. Really. It's the kind of story that would have been utterly ignored at the time: After all, some dull Republican from the middle of nowhere wanting to run for mayor in the nation's capital is amusing but meaningless. Pressler did, however, propose a brilliant platform:
"I have lived in D.C. since 1971, longer than anyone else who's running,'' Pressler said.
Despite hailing from a state that has relatively few blacks, Pressler told the newspaper said he could connect with Washington's blacks. The district is 65 percent black.
"I have a lot of African-American friends,'' he said.
That campaign, of course, failed to launch, but it will live on as some delicious fodder for Pressler's opponents to use against him now. And indeed, the oppo files are truly opening up. For starters, it turns out that Pressler sat on the board of a brokerage firm called Sky Capital while it was in the midst of
defrauding investors of $140 million during the previous decade.
There's also his flip-floppery on abortion rights. Earlier this month, Pressler told local media that he'd "probably vote to repeal" Roe v. Wade, then 10 days later went on MSNBC to say he opposes overturning Roe, claiming he was merely "correcting" the record. But this is what happens when joke candidates suddenly have to be taken seriously: They tend to fall apart under scrutiny. And if the polling is anything to go by, a Pressler collapse will help Democrat Rick Weiland the most.
• NRSC: While Senate Republicans are in an pretty strong position overall right now, the NRSC's newest round of ad buys finds them advancing in some directions they probably didn't anticipate having to take. Most notably, they're putting $1 million into the suddenly-interesting South Dakota race, where Mike Rounds is mired in the 30s in a three-way race. They're also spending $1.45 million in Georgia, though that may be a late push to put the race away in November and avoid a January runoff. On top of that, they're also making four more predictable investments: $1 million in Alaska, $1.5 million in Colorado, $1.25 in Iowa, and $1.2 in New Hampshire.
• Polling: It's a Senate poll-a-palooza:
• AK-Sen: Hickman ("D"): Dan Sullivan (R) 46, Mark Begich (D-inc) 41 (conducted for the Consumer Energy Alliance)
• CO-Sen: SurveyUSA: Cory Garnder (R) 45, Mark Udall (D-inc) 43 (Sept: 46-42 Udall) (conducted for the Denver Post)
• CO-Sen: SurveyUSA: Garner 46, Udall 42 (conducted for High Point Univ.)
• GA-Sen: Hickman ("D"): David Perdue (R) 41, Michelle Nunn (D) 39, Amanda Swafford (L) 6 (conducted for CEA)
• GA-Sen: Landmark (R): Perdue 46, Nunn 46, Swafford 4 (Sept: 46-43-6 Nunn)
• IA-Sen: Selzer: Joni Ernst (R) 47, Bruce Braley (D) 46 (Sept: 44-38 Ernst)
• IA-Sen: Rasmussen: Ernst 48, Braley 45 (Sept: 43-43 tie)
• KS-Sen: PPP (D): Greg Orman (I) 44, Pat Roberts (R-inc) 41 (Sept: Orman 48-38)
• LA-Sen: Hickman ("D"): Bill Cassidy (R) 46, Mary Landrieu (D-inc) 45 (conducted for CEA)
• MI-Sen: Mitchell: Gary Peters (D) 48, Terri Lynn Land (R) 43 (Sept: 49-36 Peters)
• NC-Sen: High Point Univ.: Kay Hagan (D-inc) 40, Thom Tillis (R) 40 (Sept: 42-40 Hagan)
• NH-Sen: SurveyUSA: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 48, Scott Brown (R) 46 (conducted for High Point Univ.)
• SD-Sen: Harper (R): Mike Rounds (R) 37, Rick Weiland (D) 34, Larry Pressler (I) 23
Note that Hickman is normally a Democratic pollster but this time they are working for the GOP-friendly Consumer Energy Alliance, hence, the "D" designation.
As many have pointed out, both of SurveyUSA's CO-Sen polls' crosstabs are odd. In the Highpoint poll Hispanics only make up 6 percent of the electorate: In 2010, they were 12 percent. In the Denver Post poll, Hispanics are also heavily breaking for the GOP, which seems hard to believe. That said, Democrats shouldn't just laugh these numbers off. Most polling shows Gardner either leading or only narrowly trailing, and both of these polls toplines' are similar to what we've been seeing for a while. In 2010 Colorado polling consistently underestimated Democrats and maybe that will happen again this year. Still, it's hard to argue that Team Blue's in a good position if they're counting on most of the polls to be wrong again.
In Georgia, Landmark gives us a close race, finding Democrat Michelle Nunn tied with Republican David Perdue. Most groups have shown this kind of result recently (Hickman also finds a close race). However, Landmark was consistently Nunn's best pollster, and it's been the only one to show her within striking distance of winning a majority in November and averting a lower-turnout January runoff. No pollster has shown Nunn breaking 46 percent since Landmark did back in August. Perdue has usually taken between 45 to 47 percent and right now it doesn't look like he will win outright either. However, if Democratic turnout disproportionately drops in January, as it's been prone to doing in irregularity-scheduled elections, Perdue can afford to go to a runoff.
Gubernatorial:
• FL-Gov: Latino Decisions polled Florida Latino voters last week (in a survey commissioned by the National Council of La Raza), and they find Democrat Charlie Crist leading Republican Rick Scott 53-29. Unfortunately, the ballot test question is number 21 in the poll, following questions about raising the minimum wage, expanding Medicaid, and state budget cuts to education, among other issues.
Nonetheless, this is a massive change from 2010, when Latino Decisions had Scott ahead of his Democratic opponent 51-48 on election eve. Note that in 2010, the presence of Marco Rubio on the ballot likely shifted the demographics of the Latino electorate in a conservative direction.
P.S. Latino Decisions founders Matt Barreto and Gary M. Segura have recently released a book, "Latino America." You can read a review of this new book by our own Susan Grigsby here.
• Polling: Here's today's gubernatorial polling spree:
• AK-Gov: Hickman ("D"): Sean Parnell (R-inc): 46, Bill Walker (I): 38 (conducted for the Consumer Energy Alliance)
• AZ-Gov: Moore Information (R): Fred DuVal (D): 39, Doug Ducey (R): 36
• CO-Gov: SurveyUSA: John Hickenlooper (D-inc): 45, Bob Beauprez (R): 44 (Sept.: 45-43 Hickenlooper) (conducted for the Denver Post)
• CO-Gov: SurveyUSA: Beauprez: 46, Hickenlooper: 44 (conducted for High Point Univ.)
• FL-Gov: McLaughlin (R): Rick Scott (R-inc): 43, Charlie Crist (D): 42, Adrian Wyllie (Lib): 6 (May: 42-38 Scott) (conducted for the FL GOP)
• GA-Gov: Hickman ("D"): Nathan Deal (R-inc): 44, Jason Carter (D): 36, Andrew Hunt (Lib): 8 (conducted for CEA)
• GA-Gov: Landmark (R): Deal: 45, Carter: 45, Hunt: 5 (Sept.: 47-44-4 Carter)
• HI-Gov: GSG (D) David Ige (D): 45, Duke Aiona (R): 33, Mufi Hannemann (I): 10 (conducted for the DGA)
• KS-Gov: PPP (D): Paul Davis (D): 42, Sam Brownback (R-inc): 42, Keen Umbehr (Lib): 6 (Sept.: 42-38-7 Davis)
• MD-Gov: OpinionWorks: Anthony Brown (D): 49, Larry Hogan (R): 42
• MI-Gov: Mitchell: Rick Snyder (R-inc): 47, Mark Schauer (D): 46 (Sept.: 46-42 Snyder)
• NH-Gov: SurveyUSA: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 50, Walt Havenstein (R): 42 (conducted for High Point Univ.)
• NM-Gov: POS (R): Susana Martinez (R-inc): 55, Gary King (D): 36 (June: 54-38 Martinez) (conducted for Martinez)
That DGA poll out of Hawaii is the first to show Ige with any real breathing room. The RGA has been spending some money here, but they always have so much more cash than their Democratic counterparts that a poll would mean more. Let's see if we get one.
As for that other freak state, Alaska, what few recent polls we've gotten (chiefly CNN's) have tended to show Walker faring better in his gubernatorial bid than Mark Begich is in his quest for re-election to the Senate. So either Hickman's the first to capture Walker's fade, or perhaps their Alaska numbers are just too bearish overall.
House:
• CO-06, VA-10, NJ-03: There was some big news on Friday, when the DCCC announced that it was pulling $1.4 million in ads from one of its top-tier offensive races, Andrew Romanoff's challenge to Republican incumbent Mike Coffman in Colorado's 6th district. That money is getting redirected toward defending five incumbents (John Barrow in GA-12, Ami Bera in CA-07, Bill Enyart in IL-12, Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01, and Ann Kuster in NH-02). Part of the money is also going to bolster Gwen Graham's offensive race in FL-02 against Steve Southerland. This comes just days after the DCCC also moved resources from the open Republican-held VA-10 to defend Bera.
While at first it appeared that the DCCC was triaging CO-06 and VA-10, this could be part of a very expensive handoff decision. House Majority PAC announced on Monday that it was releasing new ads in 10 districts. Two of these seats are CO-06 and VA-10, where HMP is spending $551,000 and $737,000 respectively. This makes it look like HMP is picking up the slack on these two top offensive possibilities, while the DCCC focuses more on incumbent protection, which is their raison d'etre when the chips are down. By contrast, about a week ago both groups canceled their reservations in four Republican-held seats in what definitely looks like triage.
HMP also announced on Monday that it's delaying its NJ-03 buy, moving their ads closer to Election Day while also allowing them to bail out at last minute. That's not a handoff, though, as the DCCC has been going full-tilt in NJ-03 all along, at least on cable.
• KS-02: It sounds like Republicans are freaked about another one of their own in Kansas. According to Politico, top GOP leaders have asked members of their caucus to send cash to 2nd District Rep. Lynn Jenkins, who is ahead "by a surprisingly small margin" in internal polls. That's not surprising if you read the Daily Digest, though, since Democrat Margie Wakefield cranked out her own survey just a few days ago showing Jenkins ahead only 48-43.
What's remarkable about this appeal for funds, though, is that Jenkins had almost $2 million in the bank as of mid-year while Wakefield had barely a tenth of that. Evidently no Kansas Republican feels all that great these days, what with Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback serving as such weighty anvils at the top of the ticket. While national groups haven't engaged here directly yet, we can't rule out an upset, so we're moving KS-02 from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
• NY-24: Biden Alert! The VPOTUS will hold a rally with Rep. Dan Maffei on Monday in Syracuse, where he attended law school back in the 1960s. It's a little concerning that Biden's spending his precious time shoring up a Democrat who should be in okay shape, but Republicans have been spending as though they believe Maffei's vulnerable.
• Polling: Even the House polling scene is getting busy:
• CA-17: David Binder Research (D): Mike Honda (D-inc): 38, Ro Khanna (D): 38 (conducted for Khanna)
• CA-17: Lake Research (D): Honda: 42, Khanna: 27 (conducted for Honda)
• MA-06: Voter/Consumer Research (R): Richard Tisei (R): 44, Seth Moulton (D): 42 (conducted for the pro-Tisei American Unity PAC)
• ND-AL: Forum Communications: Kevin Cramer (R-inc): 46, George Sinner (D): 27
• UT-04: Dan Jones: Mia Love (R): 49, Doug Owens (D): 40 (Aug.: 44-32 Love)
• WA-01: Moore Information (R): Suzan DelBene (D-inc): 43, Pedro Celis (R): 34 (conducted for Celis)
• WV-03: Harper (R): Evan Jenkins (R): 50, Nick Rahall (D-inc): 44
A few thoughts:
• Sure are a lot of undecideds in that Khanna poll, just a few weeks out from Election Day. In Khanna's memo, his consultant, Jeremy Bird (an Obama campaign veteran), tries to argue that Honda's support has "dropped" almost 20 points since an ancient survey he released back in March of 2013 that had him at 57 percent. Comparing two different polls conducted using two different methodologies—especially for different campaigns—is total no-no.
• However, Honda's responsive internal also features a ton of undecideds, but what's even more troubling is that he's earning just 42 percent of the vote, despite taking 48 percent in the June top-two primary. Khanna, meanwhile, is roughly steady—he got 28 percent back in June. Obviously we're talking about two different electorates, but Honda has a bigger fjord to cross to get to 50 than it looked like he did right after the primary.
• Forum had a very poor track record in 2012, finding Republican Rick Berg up 50-40 on Heidi Heitkamp not long before the election. (Heitkamp won, of course). Forum also released an infamously flawed poll of the general election earlier that cycle that relied on a sample of likely primary voters. That's even more of a no-no. In any event, a recent Sinner poll, you'll recall, had him up 40-38, while Cramer's own polling put him on top 48-38. That makes it even harder to believe Forum's numbers.
• Dan Jones & Associates seem to split the difference (sorta) between a recent Love internal that had her up 47-28 and an Owens poll that gave her just a 47-44 lead. A Democratic victory here would still be shocking, but it does seem like Love will underperform.
• The last time Harper polled in West Virginia was a full year ago, when they found Rahall up just 46-42, a worrying sign for the incumbent. Some months later, an NRCC poll made it look like Rahall was a dead man walking, with Jenkins up a scary 54-40. But then, a series of four straight Democratic polls showed Rahall ahead by 9 to 13 points, which suggested that early Democratic attacks on Jenkins had started working. However, with the tide shifting so hard against Team Blue lately, it's certainly possible that fortune is once again swinging away from Rahall, though let's wait to see if any other pollsters confirm this.
Other Races:
• Ballot Measures: One thing that we sometimes overlook at Daily Kos Election is initiatives and referenda, even though these are often the way that important policy changes happen (especially in the western states). David Jarman has rounded up a long-read overview of all the key ballot measures up in the 2014 general election, covering topics ranging from minimum wage to marijuana, guns, and Top 2 elections.
• CA Assembly, state Senate: In 2012, California state Democrats unexpectedly won two-thirds supermajorities in both legislative chambers. This year each supermajority is stake, and both parties are targeting a few seats in each chamber. Republicans aren't just trying to win to keep Democrats from raising taxes on their own: A GOP victory in these swing seats would show donors and candidates that the party can still win tough races in the Golden State. In a new post, Jeff Singer looks at the seats that will decide whether the Democrats keep their formidable edge in Sacramento or not.
• Chicago Mayor: For months, it looked all but certain that Chicago Teacher's Union head Karen Lewis would challenge fellow Democrat and incumbent Rahm Emanuel in the February 2015 election. However, Lewis' health has been poor and she recently underwent surgery. As a result, she announced on Monday that she would not run.
Early polls found Lewis competitive with or leading Rahm. Alderman Robert Fioretti is already running and he hasn't polled as well as Lewis. However, Rahm can't count on a smooth re-election. The mayor has been quite unpopular due in large part to gun violence and the local economy, and he still remains vulnerable. Rahm does have a massive warchest available, and he could still scare off potential challengers who would need to start from scratch. Still, he'll almost certainly have a lot of work to do if he wants to win a second term in February.
• WA ballot: In David Jarman's overview of ballot measures from this weekend (see our Ballot Measures item), he discussed the possibility that the voters in Washington might vote in favor of two diametrically opposed initiatives, one pro-background checks on gun purchases and one against. That was based on an Elway poll from April, where pro-background check I-594 was passing 72-19, while anti-background check I-591 was passing 55-33.
A new Elway poll, though, shows people have finally started to wrap their heads around the difference between the two initiatives as they pay more attention, and that problem has largely disappeared. I-594 is still passing, though by a reduced margin, 60-32, while I-591 is now failing, 39-44. Elway also asked the simpler question of "Should background checks be made more extensive or keep as is?" and more extensive won 59-33, so it sounds like the information gap has finally been closed.
Grab Bag:
• Early Voting: Voting is underway in many states, for now mostly in the form of absentee ballots, and we are launching a weekly analysis at noteworthy trends. Taniel takes a look at what the early voting reports are telling us in Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, South Dakota and Nebraska.
The most interesting dynamic may be taking place in North Carolina, where a large share of the absentee ballot requests has come from voters who did not cast a ballot in 2010 (41 percent, to be exact)—and these new voters are more Democratic than the state's usual mail-voting population. This may be a sign that the surprise advantage registered Democrats have enjoyed so far this year in North Carolina mail-in voting is fueled by the addition of new voters, and not just by a shift in how the usual electorate prefers to vote. It's still early, however, so we'll have to keep an eye on this statistic in the coming weeks.
In Iowa, meanwhile, the GOP substantially picked-up its efforts over the past week and the Democrats 43-37 advantage among absentee ballot requests is now smaller than at the equivalent point of the 2010 cycle. As for Florida, a host of factors are conspiring to make this year's numbers difficult to interpret and to compare to past cycles—as Taniel explains in the full post.
• Polls: Monday's look at the Daily Kos Election Outlook finds Senate Democrats still in sad shape, but the Democrats' odds of substantial gubernatorial gains continuing to improve. In wondering how to reconcile the two very different trends, we look back at an oldie but goodie, the 1986 midterm election.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: Alaska's Energy, America's Values returns with three spots (here, here, and here) in support of Republican Dan Sullivan. On the Democratic side, Alaska Salmon PAC throws in another $245,000.
• AR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor portrays Republican Tom Cotton as an ally of billionaires who votes against regular people. Cotton himself invokes ISIS again, and he promises to hold Obama accountable on terrorism. The ad notably features several clips of ISIS members in combat.
• CO-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters spends $400,000 for Democratic Sen. Mark Udall.
• IA-Sen: The DSCC goes after Republican Joni Ernst on education, featuring a clip of her calling for shutting down the Department of Education. The spot also accuses her of wanting to slash student loans. NextGen Climate also throws in another $252,000 against Ernst. For their part, Senate Majority PAC cancels $215,000 reserved for Democrat Bruce Braley for one week. Given how much Democratic money is going into this state, it looks like this is more of a handoff than a triage.
• KS-Sen: Independent Greg Orman features current Republican state Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger vouching for him. On the GOP side, the American Hospital Association spends $207,000 for Sen. Pat Roberts.
• KY-Sen: Democrat Alison Grimes has two new spots (here and here). The first pushes back on Republican attacks on her over immigration, accusing Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of being the one to support amnesty. The second ad features Wendell Ford, the state's last Democratic senator, contrasting Grimes with McConnell. The American Food United Food and Commercial Workers International Union also spends $125,000 against McConnell.
McConnell fires back, and takes advantage of a recent Grimes interview with the Louisville Courier-Journal where she wouldn't say if she voted for Obama. The spot features clips of reporters (including Meet the Press' Chuck Todd) criticizing Grimes, cut with video of Grimes looking evasive.
• LA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu has four CEOs (three of them Republicans) arguing that the state can't afford to lose her. Republican Bill Cassidy goes negative, once again tying Landrieu to Obama.
• MI-Sen: Democrat Gary Peters goes after Republican Terri Lynn Land on women's health. The woman at the end punctuates the attacks with "really," a not too-subtle nod to Land's infamous "Really?" ad.
• MN-Sen: Democratic Sen. Al Franken.
• NC-Sen: The NRSC throws an extra $6 million into this contest. On the blue side, Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan pushes back of Republican attempts to paint her as weak on terrorism, accusing Republican Thom Tillis of having no plan for dealing with ISIS.
• NH-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters portrays Republican Scott Brown as an out-of-state politician who is in the pocket of out-of-state oil interests. Also on the Democratic side, the Council for American Job Growth praises Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen for looking out for veterans. Shaheen herself continues to go after Brown on abortion and other women's health issues.
• SD-Sen: Republican Mike Rounds has been roundly criticized (sorry) for taking this contest for granted and not going negative against either Democrat Rick Weiland or independent Larry Pressler. Rounds is trying to rectify that and he has two new spots (here and here). Both spots lump Weiland and Pressler together, portraying them as liberals on energy, Obamacare, and guns. The quality of both ads is pretty lousy, only showing pictures of the three candidates and some text.
The DSCC recently committed $1 million to this contest and they're out with their first spot. They go after Rounds on his ethics, accusing him of doing special favors for his cronies. The ad invoked the EB-5 scandal, which is a major reason Rounds is struggling in this red state.
• NRSC: The GOP is reserving $7.4 million for the last three weeks of the campaign across six state: Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Dakota.
• AK-Gov: Republican Gov. Sean Parnell has two spots (here and here) in his unexpectedly competitive race against independent Bill Walker. The first spot praises Parnell for going forward with a successful energy project while accusing Walker of wanting to renegotiate the job. The second highlights Parnell's Interior Energy Project while arguing Walker has no plan for bringing energy to areas like Fairbanks.
• AR-Gov: The RGA goes after Democrat Mike Ross on Obamacare. In Congress Ross was one of Obamacare's big obstacles and was one of the few Democrats to vote to repeal it (albeit in a bill that everyone understood would never pass). Still, Ross is a Democrat, so of course the RGA would attack him over Obamacare no matter what.
• CO-Gov: The NRA features a violent crime survivor accusing Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper of passing his gun control law even after hearing her testimony against it.
• CT-Gov: Republican Tom Foley appears with his family in a rare positive ad.
• GA-Gov: Democrat Jason Carter calls himself a fiscal conservative while hitting Republican Gov. Nathan Deal on education once again. The NRA praises Deal for signing a firearms law.
• HI-Gov: Republican Duke Aiona alludes to the tough decisions he's made as a judge.
• IL-Gov: Republican Bruce Rauner accuses Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn of planning to raises taxes after the election. Quinn himself is up with a Spanish ad hitting Rauner of being a selfish rich guy. Even if you don't speak Spanish, the imagery makes the spot's theme very clear.
• KS-Gov: Democrat Paul Davis features law enforcement officers praising him.
• ME-Gov: Democrat Mike Michaud has been on the receiving end of plenty of attacks on immigration. Michaud calls them false before decrying the state of the economy under Republican Gov. Paul LePage.
• WI-Gov: The pro-Democratic Greater Wisconsin has two new spots (here and here). The first goes after Republican Gov. Scott Walker on farms, while the second hits him for repealing an equal pay law. Democrat Mary Burke has two new spots as well (here and here). The first highlights her work building up her family company Trek Bicycle while the second ad continues to hit Walker on the state economy.
• AZ-02: Both candidates have a new commercial. Democratic Rep. Ron Barber highlights his work on border security, while Republican Martha McSally features retirees vouching for her on Social Security and Medicare. Americans for Responsible Solutions also spends $239,000 for Barber.
• FL-02: Republican Rep. Steve Southerland accuses Democrat Gwen Graham of being weak on national security.
• FL-18: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy defends his attendance record and independence.
• FL-26: Two GOP groups are spending against Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia. The American Action Network is up with $579,000, while American Unity PAC spends $237,000.
• GA-12: Republican Rick Allen accuses Democratic Rep. John Barrow of lying about his support for No Budget, No Pay.
• IL-10: Republican Bob Dold(!) promotes himself as an independence voice while accusing Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider of being a party hack. The spot features Sen. Mark Kirk, who used to represent the area, vouching for Dold.
• MN-08: Two new spots from Republican Stewart Mills (here and here). The first spot has a friend of Mills defending his business background (while conceding that Democratic attacks on Mills' hair are funny). The second has Mills speaking to the camera, attacking Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan on the economy while defending his hair. Nolan goes positive and portrays himself as an influential bipartisan representative: Mills' hair does not make an appearance.
• NC-06: Democrat Laura Fjeld.
• NH-02: The Club For Growth spent big to get Marilinda Garcia through the Republican primary, and it's no surprise they're back for the general. The group is spending $750,000, accusing Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster of wanting to raise other people's taxes while not paying hers.
• NY-01: Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop defends his ethics.
• NY-21: Republican Elise Stefanik talks about her new ideas for Congress, most of which sound very old. Stefanik is also the latest candidate to film an ad while driving, which doesn't exactly seem safe.
• NY-23: Republican Rep. Tom Reed continues to hit Democrat Martha Robertson as an "extreme Ithaca liberal," while the National Association of Realtors spends $334,000 on his behalf.
• TX-23: Republican Will Hurd emphasizes his combat record and pledges to fix the mess in Washington.
• VA-10: Republican Barbara Comstock accuses Democrat John Foust of wanting to raise taxes on basically everything.
• WV-02: The ad war in this contest can basically be summed up as "Democrat Nick Casey is an Obama drone and Republican Alex Mooney is a carpetbagger from Maryland." This time Casey is the one with a new spot, accusing Mooney of wanting to privatize Social Security while reminding viewers that the Republican is a career politician from The Old Line State.
• DCCC: New Democratic ads in AZ-02, CA-26, FL-02, IA-03, and NY-11. We also have expenditures from the group.
• NRCC: New GOP ads in CO-06, NE-02, and NY-24. We also have expenditures from the group.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.