Leading Off:
● NY-03: In a shocking development Tuesday evening, Democratic Rep. Steve Israel announced that he would not seek re-election this fall, saying he wants to "spend more time writing my second novel." Israel was first elected in 2000 to fill the seat left open by Republican Rep. Rick Lazio, who lost the race to replace Democratic Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan to none other than Hillary Clinton. In Congress, Israel was a hawk on national security matters and voted for the Iraq war; he also joined the Blue Dog Coalition and voted for George W. Bush's tax cuts.
But over time he moved to the left and eventually quit the Blue Dogs before rising to become chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ahead of the 2012 cycle. With Democrats deep in the minority after the 2010 GOP wave, Israel faced a difficult task and fell short of recapturing the House, but he did guide his party to eight pickups. His second turn at helming the DCCC in 2014 went poorly, though, as Democrats gave back all their gains from the previous cycle and then some, losing 13 seats and leaving the party with its smallest minority since the 1920s.
Israel, a close ally of Nancy Pelosi, never had too much trouble holding down his own seat, but his retirement completely scrambles the picture. New York's 3rd Congressional District, located on Long Island, is no liberal bastion: Barack Obama won it by just a 51-48 margin, and with the seat now open, Republicans have a real chance at capturing it. Democrats will fight just as hard, though, and they may get a boost if Clinton is at the top of the ticket this fall. No matter what, a solidly Democratic seat just became a must-watch tossup.
4Q Fundraising:
IL-08: Raja Krishnamoorthi (D): $450,000 raised, $1.25 million cash-on-hand
NY-19: Andrew Heaney (R): $363,000 raised (no self-funding), $762,000 cash-on-hand
Senate:
● CO-Sen: Over the summer businessman Doug Robinson, a nephew of Mitt Romney, flirted with a run against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, but he announced on Monday that he'd stay out. The GOP establishment seems to have settled on state Rep. Jon Keyser, though Keyser has not yet announced that he's in.
Gubernatorial:
● IN-Gov: It's been a while since we've heard any rumblings about a possible primary challenge to GOP Gov. Mike Pence. After his miserable mishandling of Indiana's furiously controversial Religious Freedom Restoration Act last year, business-minded Republicans who were disgusted at the prospect of increased discrimination against gays and lesbians began suggesting Pence ought to be dumped. But while several names were floated, no one ever actually took the leap, and the state's candidate filing deadline is just a month away.
The most recent fundraising numbers are notable as well. In the first half of 2014, Pence's Democratic opponent, former state House Speaker John Gregg, actually outraised him $1.76 million to $1.63 million, not something that often happens to a gubernatorial incumbent. But Pence turned things around in the final six months of the year, taking in $3.5 million and ending up with $6.8 million in the bank, versus $1.97 million raised and $3.5 million cash-on-hand for Gregg.
It's also worth noting that $1 million of Pence's take came directly from the Republican Governors Association, a move that can be read more than one way: Does the RGA feel the need to prop Pence up, for instance, or is it trying to scare off challengers? But no matter your take, Pence's huge haul and RGA support strongly suggests that the GOP establishment has his back, and that no primary contest will be forthcoming.
● WV-Gov: Billionaire Jim Justice is out with another Global Strategies Group poll of the May 10 Democratic primary. Justice's survey gives him the lead with 39 percent of the vote; state Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler and ex-U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin take 19 and 13 respectively. This is the first released poll to include Goodwin, who has filed candidacy paper but hasn't announced yet. Justice has been running ads for a while, and things may shift once Kessler and Goodwin take to the air.
House:
● CA-21: On Monday, attorney Emilio Huerta announced that he would take on Republican David Valadao. Huerta is the son of United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta, and his family connections could give him a leg up in fundraising and some initial name recognition. Obama won this Central Valley seat 55-44, but Team Blue has struggled to find a candidate capable of running a serious campaign this cycle, and we'll need to wait and see if Huerta has what it takes. Huerta will face Fowler Mayor Pro-Tem Daniel Parra, who has struggled to raise money so far, in the June top-two primary.
● FL-06, 11: Two months ago, Republican Rep. Dan Webster talked about running for the open 11th District, but he seems to be changing his tune. Scott Powers of Florida Politics reports that last month, Webster said he was considering running for the new 6th District, a seat that Romney carried 52-47. Webster's 10th District became safely blue after the state Supreme Court ordered it to be redrawn, and he's been looking for a new seat for a while.
The new 6th doesn't overlap very well with Webster's current seat. However, there isn't much of a GOP primary going on there right now. Businessman Adam Barringer, a former mayor of New Smyrna Beach, is running, but he had just $152,000 on hand at the end of September. Ex-Rep. Sandy Adams paused her campaign last month due to an unspecified health issue, and she hasn't given any indication if she's going to get back in; in any case, Adams' fundraising hadn't impressed either.
Navy vet Brandon Patty, who sounds well-connected, started mulling a bid for the 6th in September. Patty hasn't made the jump yet, though Saintpetersblog wrote last month that he'd likely announce in January. If Webster runs, he may have the resources to brush past the developing primary field. Democratic state Rep. Dwayne Taylor is also in.
It's unclear if Webster has closed the door on a bid in the 11th, or if he's just keeping his options open. The 11th includes much of his current district, but there's already a GOP primary developing there. Justin Grabelle, the former chief of staff to retiring Rep. Richard Nugent, is in, and he has the support of his old boss. Well-connected rancher Kelly Rice hasn't announced, but he looks likely to get in.
● FL-10: Ex-state Democratic Party Chairman Bob Poe has been flirting with a bid for this safely blue Orlando seat for a while, and he said on Monday that he'll be "talking about his decision in the next couple of days." Poe admits he's hired a campaign manager, so there's little doubt what he'll say.
Poe can reportedly do some self-funding, and he appears to be well-connected enough to raise money from donors. Former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings and state Sen. Geraldine Thompson are running here, and Rep. Corrine Brown's team reaffirmed on Monday that she hasn't decided whether to campaign here or in the North Florida 5th (though Brown is trying to save her old seat in court). The primary electorate here is predominantly African American and Hispanic, but while Demings, Thompson, and Brown are black, Poe is white.
● FL-26: Just after the new year, Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer, the second-ranking Democrat in the House, headlined a fundraiser for businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who is hoping to knock off freshman GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo in South Florida. Hoyer's support is more than financial, though: At the event, Hoyer was forthright in urging two other Democrats, ex-Rep. Joe Garcia and businessman Andrew Korge, to stay out of the race.
In response, Garcia (the man Curbelo beat in 2014) said he's still "thinking" about the race and added that "this election shouldn't be decided by the leaders in Washington," which is an amusing thing to hear a former congressman say. Korge doesn't appear to have responded directly, but he did re-tweet a supporter who exhorted him to "NOT let anyone talk you out of challenging" Taddeo. This sort of pressure from powerful national figures like Hoyer is utterly commonplace, but will it work, or will it just inflame its intended targets? That's always the question, but with Florida's filing deadline still half a year away, it may be a while before we find out the answer.
● MI-01: On Tuesday, former state Democratic Party Chair Lon Johnson received the endorsement of Bart Stupak, who represented northern Michigan in the House until he retired in 2010. The Democratic establishment has consolidated behind Johnson; 2014 nominee Jerry Cannon is running here, but he had almost no money at the end of September. On the GOP side, state Sen. Tom Casperson has had the field to himself for the last two months.
● MN-02: In a surprise, wealthy physician Mary Lawrence dropped out of the race for this open swing seat on Tuesday. Lawrence's decision leaves healthcare executive Angie Craig as the only viable Democrat in the contest.
Lawrence said she was dropping out because she did not believe she could win the party endorsement at the convention and decided that continuing ahead with a primary would hurt Team Blue's chances in November. In Minnesota, nominations are frequently unofficially decided at the conventions. The conventions, which are dominated by activists and party insiders, pick who earns the party's endorsement. The party endorsement isn't at all the same thing as the party's nomination, but many activists and political figures on both parties take it very seriously, and plenty of candidates drop out of the race if they don't earn the endorsement.
Craig appeared to have a better relationship with progressive activists than Lawrence; among other things, she has the support of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Craig also notably said that she would drop out of the race if someone else won the party endorsement, while Lawrence never made that pledge.
Lawrence did not endorse Craig as she departed the race, but no other Democrat has made any noises about running for this seat. While Craig is not as wealthy as Lawrence, she has been doing some self-funding, though she's also been relying on donors. In any case, it looks like Team Blue will be able to focus on the general election early in this suburban Twin Cities seat. The race on the GOP side is a lot more crowded. Conservative radio host Jason Lewis, former state Rep. Pam Myrha, and former state Sen. John Howe are all campaigning here, and businesswoman Darlene Miller said she was considering last month.
● PA-08: State Rep. Steve Santarsiero just scored two new labor endorsements, including one from the state branch of AFSCME, a powerful and active union. The other comes from Ironworkers Local 401, which last cycle backed Santarsiero's primary opponent, businesswoman Shaughnessy Naughton. Santarsiero has accumulated 13 union endorsements so far; this time around, Naughton has none.
● VA-04: While Secretary of the Commonwealth Levar Stoney was reportedly considering a run for a redrawn version of the 4th District, the Richmond-Times Dispatch's Jim Nolan says that Stoney is notifying state Democrats that he's not interested. Unless the U.S. Supreme Court saves the current GOP-drawn map, the 4th is set to become safely blue in 2016, and a number of other Democrats are eyeing it.
● VA-07: On Tuesday, Henrico County Sheriff Mike Wade confirmed that he would challenge freshman Rep. Dave Brat in the GOP primary. Ever since Brat shockingly unseated then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor, he's had a big target on his back. Wade of course denies that he's running to help Cantor's allies get their revenge (what else is he supposed to say?), but the National Journal reported last month that GOP establishment types are excited about Wade.
The well-connected Wade should have no problem raising money, and Brat only had $233,000 on hand at the end of September. Brat proved last cycle that he could harness tea party anger and this time he'll have incumbency on his side, but this will be our first chance to see if Brat can win now that he doesn't have someone with Cantor's flaws to kick around anymore.
But Wade may not get a clear shot at Brat. While this seat will remain reliably red after court-ordered redistricting is done, a portion of Republican Rep. Randy Forbes' seat is likely to be moved here. Forbes' 4th District will become safely blue unless the U.S. Supreme Court saves the current map and if wants to stay in the House, he'll probably run here instead. Forbes' team didn't respond to questions about him running here last month, so they're at least not dismissing it. Forbes is very socially conservative, but tea partiers probably wouldn't flock to the usually low-key congressman, and he'd probably take more votes from Wade than Brat.
Mayoral:
● Chicago, IL Mayor: Just a month ago, when a couple of Democratic lawmakers introduced legislation that would allow a recall of Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, the idea looked hopeless, even though Rahm was already in the midst of disastrous collapse in the public's eye following an endless series of controversies over police killings of minorities. But that collapse (best chronicled by the excellent Rick Perlstein) has only accelerated, and now Rahm has lost the support of a major bigshot who was once his friend: Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, who said this week that he's "very disappointed" in Emanuel-and said he'd sign the recall bill if it makes it to his desk.
Still, who knows if it'll ever get that far? And it may be that Rauner's playing a deeper game here: Crain's columnist Greg Hinz suggests that the governor is actually trying to goad Rahm into helping him get Michael Madigan, the powerful Democratic speaker of the state House, to give Rauner what he wants in budget negotiations. But it's certainly possible that Madigan, who would have the last say over whether this recall legislation moves forward, decides to tell both men to smeg off. In that case, Rahm, who has just an 18 percent approval rating, could be in for a world of trouble.
Grab Bag:
● Deaths: On Friday, former Arkansas Gov. and Sen. Dale Bumpers died at the age of 90. Bumpers, a Democrat, defeated five different men who had or would serve as governor, as well as one U.S. senator for good measure.
Bumpers entered a crowded primary in 1970 for the right to take on Republican Gov. Winthrop Rockefeller, and one of the men he beat was Attorney General Joe Purcell, who would serve as acting governor of the state for six days in 1979. Bumpers defeated ex-Gov. Orval Faubus in the runoff, before he proceeded to unseat Rockefeller.
Bumpers won his Senate seat in 1974 by unseating William Fulbright in the primary, and he easily held his post until he retired in 1998. Bumpers beat Republican Asa Hutchinson, the state's current governor, in 1986, and he defeated future GOP Gov. Mike Huckabee in 1992.
● Deaths: Republican Rep. Mike Oxley, who represented Ohio in the House for 25 years, died on New Year's Day of lung cancer at the age of 71. Oxley was best-known for the Sarbanes-Oxley law, which was passed in the wake of the Enron and Worldcom scandals in 2002 and sought to reform accounting standards.
● Demographics: There's always a vague sense that the middle class is "disappearing," but it's been hard to quantify, until now. Pew Research has released a very thorough study that uses Census data over five decades to show that the middle class has, indeed, shrunk, at least as an overall share of the nation's population. However, there's a lot of nuance to the shrinkage, which David Jarman unpacks: People are departing the middle class for the upper tier as well as for the lower tier, and who's going which direction depends a lot on categories like age, marital status, race, and occupation or industry.
● Michigan: On Tuesday, Gov. Rick Snyder signed a bill passed by the GOP legislature to eliminate straight-ticket voting in Michigan. As Stephen Wolf recently explained, the new law will almost certainly disproportionately hurt Democrats. Long Election Day lines are common in Democratic strongholds in non-white urban precincts, and straight-ticket voting was a good way to cut down on wait times.
The bill included $5 million to buy new voting equipment, but it wasn't because the GOP actually wants to make voting easier. By attaching an appropriations item, the Republicans have ensured that Democrats can't put a repeal measure on the ballot. There are now nine states left that allow straight-ticket voting.
● SD Redistricting: Last week, a ballot measure that would create a commission to take control of South Dakota's legislative redistricting was certified for the general election ballot. If the measure passes, the commission will consist of three Democrats, three Republicans, and three independents.
As we've noted in the past, while the GOP legislature drew the current lines, they didn't exactly gerrymander either chamber. The median state House and state Senate districts each backed Romney 58-40, making them slightly more Democratic than the entire state. But given how red South Dakota is, the GOP didn't need to work hard to get supermajorities in both houses.
● State Legislatures: If you are a regular reader to Daily Kos Elections, you know that the impact of gerrymandering on our legislative bodies is a topic of constant interest. This past weekend, we explored the impact that gerrymandering has had on reducing the number of truly competitive state legislative seats in key states. Perhaps the most damning stats: The state of North Carolina, where Mitt Romney won by a mere 50-48 margin, had just 8 percent of its state legislative districts fall in what could be charitably defined as a zone of even partisan strength. Eight percent! Click on the link for the whole article.
● Time Machine: Travel back in time with Daily Kos Elections, as we imagine our writeups of key races throughout history as though we were right there—and without the benefit of hindsight! This time we arrive in California in 1962. Former Vice President Richard Nixon has lost the gubernatorial race to Democratic incumbent Pat Brown, and he just carried out one of the most bizarre concession speeches we've seen. Is this the end of Nixon's political career? We just can't see how it isn't.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.