Have you been getting bombarded with TV ads for Senate races lately? A new report from the Wesleyan Media Project tells us just how intense the onslaught has been. From Aug. 19 to Sept. 15, Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania topped the list of battleground Senate races where candidates and their allies have run the most commercials. Democratic-aligned groups have a decisive edge in just four states, as shown on the map above: Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Republicans, meanwhile, hold an advantage in Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, while Illinois and Iowa are more closely divided.
These disparities help give us an idea of the headwinds candidates are facing as we enter the final stretch of the campaign, while the overall level shows just how intense the fight for control of the Senate is. Lately, both parties have treated Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania like the country’s most competitive races, and that shows in the total number of ads aired in those states. One state where the airwaves have been flooded, though, isn’t on the list of top contests anymore: Ohio. But those ads have been a key player in that outcome, as the constant and mostly unanswered barrage from Republicans has helped sink Democrat Ted Strickland, who has seen his party cancelling most of reservations originally made on his behalf.
If Democrats were to win three of those four most competitive states, along with every other race Daily Kos Elections currently rates as favoring them—which would include pickups in Wisconsin and Illinois—they would win back the Senate, as long as Hillary Clinton also wins the White House, since Tim Kaine would break ties.
Of course, advertising only tells one part of the picture. Not all ads are created equal, and just because one party is running more of them doesn’t mean that party’s winning. Some ads are excellent, some are terrible, some cover the whole state, and others just choice media markets. However, breaking down ads by the number of spots rather than just by the sheer amount of money spent on them gives us an idea how many times voters might actually see them.
There are many reasons why some ad dollars stretch further than others. Candidates often pay much cheaper ad rates than outside groups, as do those who reserve ad time months in advance compared to closer to Election Day. Some media markets cost drastically more than others, too. In cases like New Hampshire, groups have to book broadcast time in pricey Boston to reach most of the state, meaning most of those viewers actually live in Massachusetts rather than the Granite State.
Wesleyan’s report focuses on broadcast ads and national cable buys, meaning it doesn't include ads on local cable. Broadcast, particularly during prime time, tends to reach more viewers, but it’s more expensive and less targeted to niche demographics like swing voters, a gap cable can fill. Still, broadcast advertising patterns provide an important look at the playing field, and like the polls, they continue to show a Democratic Senate majority is no sure thing.
Democrats have only one pick-up opportunity, Illinois, where neither party is advertising much because Republicans appear to be down decisively, while Democrats are by no means guaranteed to hold retiring Minority Leader Harry Reid’s seat in Nevada. And in addition to Ohio, Democratic groups have been unwilling to match Republican advertising in another expensive state where their fortunes have dimmed lately, Florida. However, both parties have only recently begun pouring resources into two states where Democratic prospects have brightened, Missouri and North Carolina, so Republican ad edges might decline.
The Wesleyan report also breaks down the number of ads by whether the candidates themselves, party committees—the DSCC and NRSC—or third party groups like super PACs, have commissioned the spots. One of the striking facts from their analysis is how the third-party share of advertising has risen sharply following the Supreme Court’s Citizens United in 2010. Third-party groups have aired a record 45 percent of Senate ads so far in the 2016 cycle, even though the overall level of ad spending has fallen compared to 2012, meaning candidate advertising has fallen even further.
Indeed, during the period covered by this report, 47 percent of Democratic ads and 66 percent of Republican ads were from third-party groups or party committees. That’s a sharp increase from just 34 percent for Democrats and 44 percent for Republicans for the same timeframe four years ago. And in one striking example, this year’s contest in Pennsylvania, just 24 percent of ads were from the candidates themselves, while 62 percent were from third-party groups. Unless Citizens United gets overturned, this trend is likely to continue. But no matter how many ads flood into the Senate battlegrounds, they aren’t votes, and those won’t get counted until Nov. 8.
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