This year they have important elections in New Jersey. Lose this race for governor can be hard for democratic party.
Im optimist for this race because i think democrats from New Jersey pass the badest moments after Torricelli and McGreevey scandals. I think Corzine, Codey and Lautenberg help very much in that moment and save democratic party, and now all seems few more easy.
The last scandals around Corzine not help, but i think Corzine have too good actions in their governorship, like the rigth nomination of their succesor for senate, or like against death penalty.
I hope Corzine can win and continue like governor. Is important democratic party win, because Lautemberg have high age and maybe the new governor must decide their succesor, like in Hawaii. And can be important too for possibly redistricting.
Republicans will make special efforts for this race. They have young candidate without high level offices win in elections. He have the "worth" of be nominated by Bush administration. Only that must make C Christie a so easy target in a blue state, but democratic party continue with any problems in this state.
I think C Christie is not the top republican in the state but will have strong support from republicans. I think for that is very important all democrats support Corzine.
Like we can see in this links, republicans not have first level politics in New Jersey who can return:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states I
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states II.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states III.
but they have US House representatives like Chris Smith, Rodney Frelinghuysen or Frank LoBiondo, and no-one of they will run.
In democratic side, John Corzine will be the candidate but like i make with other states i will add the list of possible candidates:
- William Warren Bradley: MO NJ 1943 Senator from New Jersey 79-97. Lost for President 00.
- John Stevens Corzine: IL NJ 1947 Senator from New Jersey 01-06. Governor of New Jersey 06- .
- Richard James Codey: NJ 1946 Governor of New Jersey 04-06. Acting governor of New Jersey 02-02. President of NJ Senate 02-08 08- .
- Frank Pallone: NJ 1951 USHRep 89- .
- Robert Ernest Andrews: NJ 1957 USHRep 90- . Lost for Senate 08. Lost for Governor 97 and 01.
- Steven R Rothman: NJ 1952 USHRep 97- .
- Rush Dew Holt: WV NJ 1948 USHRep 99- . Lost for House 96.
- Albio Sires: CUB NJ 1951 USHRep 06- . Lost for House 86.
- John Herbert Adler: PA NJ 1959 USHRep 09- . Lost for House 90.
- Bernard F Kenny: NJ 1946 President of NJ Senate 08-08.
In few states they have a political figure like William Bradley without office. I think was a good option for any office in the cabinet, but seems will get out.
From this list can out too the Lautenberg succesor. Richard Codey seems the first candidate for this senate seat. And he can be too the best candidate for be the first Lieutenant Governor of New Jersey. Seems very liked in New Jersey. In New Jersey will have Lieutenant Governor since 2010.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: All gubernatorial races.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---
The states with democratic incumbents what seems more easy for win again are:
NH-Gov: Incumbent J Lynch (D-1952) win in 2008 with 70%.
CO-Gov: Incumbent W Ritter (D-1956) win in 2006 with 56%.
IA-Gov: Incumbent C Culver (D-1966) win in 2006 with 54%.
WI-Gov: Incumbent J Doyle (D-1945) win in 2006 with 53%.
MA-Gov: Incumbent D Patrick (D-1956) win in 2006 with 55%.
We can see results for these states in next link:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races. Democratic incumbents are safe?
More interesting races:
AR-Gov: Open R vs M Beebe (D-1946) ? after 13 votes = 09,231 => Safe Democratic
MD-Gov: R Ehrlich (R-1957) vs M O'Malley (D-1963) ? af 16 votes = 08,750 => Safe Democratic
IL-Gov: Open R vs P Quinn (D-1948) ? after 21 votes = 08,571 => Safe Democratic
NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs A Cuomo (D-1957) ? af 18 votes = 08,333 => Likely Democratic
OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs J Kitzhaber (D-1947) ? af 12 votes = 08,194 => Likely Democratic
2 OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs ? after 06 votes = 08,056 => Likely Democratic
OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 15 votes = 07,889 => Likely Democr
CA-Gov: Open R vs J Brown (D-1938) ? after 32 votes = 07,865 => Likely Democratic
ME-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs N Abercrombie (D-1938) ? af 11 votes = 07,727 => Likely Democr
VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs H Dean (D-1948) ? aft 30 votes = 07,667 => Likely Democratic
2 HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs ? after 16 votes = 07,396 => Likely Democratic
NJ-Gov: C Christie (R-1962) vs J Corzine (D- 1947) ? af 17 votes = 07,353 => Likely Democratic
NM-Gov: Open R vs D Denish (D-1949) ? after 22 votes = 07,273 => Likely Democratic
2 OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs ? after 12 votes = 07,083 => Leans Democratic
2 CA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 44 votes = 07,045 => Leans Democratic
2 NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs D Paterson (D-1954) ? af 33 votes = 06,768 => Leans Democr
NV-Gov: J Gibbons (R-1944) vs ? after 21 votes = 06,746 => Leans Democratic
RI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 06,528 => Leans Democratic
PA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 15 votes = 06,000 => Leans Democratic
MI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 30 votes = 05,889 => Leans Democratic
VA-Gov: R McDonnell (R-1954) vs ? after 27 votes = 05,494 => Toss-Up
AZ-Gov: J Brewer (R-1944) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,907 => Toss-Up
MN-Gov: T Pawlenty (R-1960) vs M Dayton (D-1947) ? after 39 votes = 04,573 => Toss-Up
2 VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,352 => Toss-Up
FL-Gov: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? after 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
CT-Gov: J Rell (R-1946) vs ? after 33 votes = 03,232 => Leans Republican
And for see about other difficult races for democrats like:
TN-Gov: Open seat. P Bredesen (D-1943) win in 2006 with 69%.
OK-Gov: Open seat. B Henry (D-1963) win in 2006 with 66%.
TX-Gov: Open seat?. R Perry (R-1950) win in 2006 with 39%. K Hutchison (R-1943) like run.
WY-Gov: Open seat. D Freudenthal (D-1950) win in 2006 with 70%.
KS-Gov: Open seat. K Sebelius (D-1948) win in 2006 with 58%. S Brownback (R-1956) like run.
SC-Gov: Open seat. M Sanford (R-1960) win in 2006 with 55%.
GA-Gov: Open seat. S Perdue (R-1946) win in 2006 with 58%.
AL-Gov: Open seat. B Riley (R-1944) win in 2006 with 58%.
SD-Gov: Open seat. M Rounds (R-1954) win in 2006 with 62%.
AK-Gov: Incumbent S Palin (R-1964) win in 2006 with 48%.
ID-Gov: Incumbent B Otter (R-1942) win in 2006 with 53%.
NE-Gov: Incumbent D Heineman (R-1948) win in 2006 with 73%.
visit next diaries:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Guvernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat II
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Hardest gubernatorial races.
All the polls are open if you like to vote.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes go up and when end the procedure.