I was thinking in make today a diary about FL-Gov race without C Christ, but they are very differents options and i must think more.
Today go see to the more difficult gubernatorial races. This are the races:
WY-Gov: Open seat. D Freudenthal (D-1950) win in 2006 with 70%.
TN-Gov: Open seat. P Bredesen (D-1943) win in 2006 with 69%.
OK-Gov: Open seat. B Henry (D-1963) win in 2006 with 66%.
KS-Gov: Open seat. K Sebelius (D-1948) win in 2006 with 58%. S Brownback (R-1956) like run.
TX-Gov: Open seat?. R Perry (R-1950) win in 2006 with 39%. K Hutchison (R-1943) like run.
SC-Gov: Open seat. M Sanford (R-1960) win in 2006 with 55%.
GA-Gov: Open seat. S Perdue (R-1946) win in 2006 with 58%.
AL-Gov: Open seat. B Riley (R-1944) win in 2006 with 58%.
SD-Gov: Open seat. M Rounds (R-1954) win in 2006 with 62%.
AK-Gov: Incumbent S Palin (R-1964) win in 2006 with 48%.
ID-Gov: Incumbent B Otter (R-1942) win in 2006 with 53%.
NE-Gov: Incumbent D Heineman (R-1948) win in 2006 with 73%.
Last Update: Mar 6, 2009
This diary was write before the change of KS governor and the change in WY term limits. After that i write a diary for WY-Gov race. The race in KS get same because the new governor will not run for reelection.
What can make democratic party for be more competitive in this races.
Well, like make republicans, democratic party can try recruit former strong democrats in this states. The options are:
- Joseph Maxwell Cleland (1942- ) GA - Senator of Georgia 97-03.
- Anthony Carroll Knowles (1943- ) OK AK - Governor of Alaska 94-02.
- Roy Eugene Barnes (1948- ) GA - Governor of Georgia 99-03.
- Joseph Robert Kerrey (1943- ) NE - Senator of Nebraska 89-01. - Governor of Nebraska 83-87.
- Daniel Robert Glickman (1944- ) KS - Secretary of Agriculture 95-01.
- James Hovis Hodges (1956- ) SC - Governor of South Carolina 99-03.
- James Elisha Folsom (1949- ) AL - Governor of Alabama 93-95.
- David Lyle Boren (1941- ) DC OK - Senator of Oklahoma 79-94. - Governor of Oklahoma 75-79.
- David Lee Walters (1951- ) OK - Governor of Oklahoma 91-95.
In this link we can see a poll about they with any candidate more from Florida. Today Florida get out.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat II
A second option is try recruit candidates from US House. Maybe current representatives or young former representatives who not are politically dammaged. The percentage of current democratic representation in this states is the next:
100,00% (01/01) of US House Representatives in SD S Herseth-Sandlin
055,56% (05/09) of US House Representatives in TN ...
050,00% (01/02) of US House Representatives in ID W Minnick
046,15% (06/13) of US House Representatives in GA ...
042,86% (03/07) of US House Representatives in AL A Davis, B Bright and P Griffith
037,50% (12/32) of US House Representatives in TX ...
033,33% (02/06) of US House Representatives in SC J Spratt and J Clyburn
025,00% (01/04) of US Houes Representatives in KS D Moore
020,00% (01/05) of US House Representatives in OK D D Boren
000,00% (00/01) of US House Representatives in WY
000,00% (00/01) of US House Representatives in AK
000,00% (00/03) of US House Representatives in NE
In Alabama Artur Davis representative is running. This is the group with highest number of possible candidates. Until now any sound but no-one more tell will run.
The third option for can have competitive candidates is see too the second statewide office in each of this states (generally Lieutenant Governor) and try recruit any current or former young candidate. Current lieutenant governors in these states are:
Since 07 AL Lieutenant Governor: J Folsom (former governor, is in first group)
Since 07 OK Lieutenant Governor: J Askins
Since 07 KS Lieutenant Governor: M Parkinson (governor since 09)
Seems J Askins can run in Oklahoma and J Folsom sound. M Parkinson tell will not run.
And finally, the fourth option is see to other statewide offices with democratic incumbent with age of try changes (not included GA Commissioner of Agriculture T Irvin, since 1969). In these states are:
Since 90 OK Superintendent of PI: S Garrett
Since 94 OK Attorney General: D Edmonson
Since 97 GA Attorney General: T Baker
Since 98 GA Commissioner of Labor: M Thurmond
Since 03 AL Commissioner of A and I: R Sparks
Since 05 OK Insurance Commissioner: K Holland
Since 05 OK Treasurer: S Meacham
Since 07 OK Commissioner of Labor: L Fields
Since 07 SC Superintendent of Education: J Rex
Since 08 KS Attorney General: S Six
Since 08 OK Auditor and Inspector: S Burrage
Since 09 KS Treasurer: D McKinney
No-one in WY
No-one in TN
No-one in TX
No-one in SD
No-one in AK
No-one in ID
No-one in NE
Some of they logically sound.
For all this states we can find any name from these groups. Maybe insufficient for win any of these races. From this group of races, i think the best chance for democrats can be in Oklahoma, Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina. Specially in Oklahoma if democratic party not try recruit Max Cleland for GA-Gov race. I think would be very interesting a gubernatorial race in Georgia with Max Cleland like democratic candidate. He know statewide offices.
I remember the resume of this serie of diaries about gubernatorial races.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: All gubernatorial races.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---
The states with democratic incumbents what seems more easy for win again are:
NH-Gov: Incumbent J Lynch (D-1952) win in 2008 with 70%.
CO-Gov: Incumbent W Ritter (D-1956) win in 2006 with 56%.
IA-Gov: Incumbent C Culver (D-1966) win in 2006 with 54%.
WI-Gov: Incumbent J Doyle (D-1945) win in 2006 with 53%.
MA-Gov: Incumbent D Patrick (D-1956) win in 2006 with 55%.
We can see results for these states in next link:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races. Democratic incumbents are safe?
More interesting races:
AR-Gov: Open R vs M Beebe (D-1946) ? after 14 votes = 09,286 => Safe Democratic
MD-Gov: R Ehrlich (R-1957) vs M O'Malley (D-1963) ? af 17 votes = 08,824 => Safe Democratic
IL-Gov: Open R vs P Quinn (D-1948) ? after 24 votes = 08,403 => Likely Democratic
HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs N Abercrombie (D-1938) ? af 16 votes = 08,229 => Likely Democr
OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs J Kitzhaber (D-1947) ? af 12 votes = 08,194 => Likely Democratic
NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs A Cuomo (D-1957) ? af 20 votes = 08,083 => Likely Democratic
2 OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs ? after 06 votes = 08,056 => Likely Democratic
CA-Gov: Open R vs J Brown (D-1938) ? after 35 votes = 07,952 => Likely Democratic
OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 16 votes = 07,813 => Likely Democr
ME-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs H Dean (D-1948) ? aft 30 votes = 07,667 => Likely Democratic
2 HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs ? after 17 votes = 07,396 => Likely Democratic
NM-Gov: Open R vs D Denish (D-1949) ? after 23 votes = 07,319 => Likely Democratic
2 CA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 44 votes = 07,045 => Leans Democratic
2 OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs ? after 13 votes = 06,923 => Leans Democratic
NJ-Gov: C Christie (R-1962) vs J Corzine (D- 1947) ? af 20 votes = 06,917 => Likely Democratic
2 NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs D Paterson (D-1954) ? af 35 votes = 06,905 => Leans Democr
NV-Gov: J Gibbons (R-1944) vs ? after 22 votes = 06,894 => Leans Democratic
RI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 06,528 => Leans Democratic
PA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 15 votes = 06,000 => Leans Democratic
MI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 31 votes = 05,914 => Leans Democratic
VA-Gov: R McDonnell (R-1954) vs ? after 27 votes = 05,494 => Toss-Up
AZ-Gov: J Brewer (R-1944) vs ? after 19 votes = 04,912 => Toss-Up
MN-Gov: T Pawlenty (R-1960) vs M Dayton (D-1947) ? after 40 votes = 04,542 => Toss-Up
2 VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,352 => Toss-Up
FL-Gov: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? after 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
CT-Gov: J Rell (R-1946) vs ? after 33 votes = 03,232 => Leans Republican
And for see about other difficult races for democrats like:
TN-Gov: Open seat. P Bredesen (D-1943) win in 2006 with 69%.
OK-Gov: Open seat. B Henry (D-1963) win in 2006 with 66%.
TX-Gov: Open seat?. R Perry (R-1950) win in 2006 with 39%. K Hutchison (R-1943) like run.
WY-Gov: Open seat. D Freudenthal (D-1950) win in 2006 with 70%.
KS-Gov: Open seat. K Sebelius (D-1948) win in 2006 with 58%. S Brownback (R-1956) like run.
SC-Gov: Open seat. M Sanford (R-1960) win in 2006 with 55%.
GA-Gov: Open seat. S Perdue (R-1946) win in 2006 with 58%.
AL-Gov: Open seat. B Riley (R-1944) win in 2006 with 58%.
SD-Gov: Open seat. M Rounds (R-1954) win in 2006 with 62%.
AK-Gov: Incumbent S Palin (R-1964) win in 2006 with 48%.
ID-Gov: Incumbent B Otter (R-1942) win in 2006 with 53%.
NE-Gov: Incumbent D Heineman (R-1948) win in 2006 with 73%.
visit next diaries:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Guvernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat II
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Hardest gubernatorial races.
All the polls are open if you like to vote.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes go up and when end the procedure.