Delaware will have a race for open seat, after J Biden left the senate seat from Delaware for became Vicepresident and President of the Senate.
R Miner former governor was the right of choose new senator, and she choose T Kaufman, former Chieff of Staf of former senator J Biden. T Kaufman tell he will not run for reelection, and that open the seat for 2010 elections.
I dont like very much this appointmen because i think is a unnecessary risk let elections for open seat. In Delaware republicans have M Castle, the alone congressman of the state, and former Governor. Is very veteran, but is one of strongest republicans in blue states, winning for congres in a D+7 district, the second more democratic house distric where republicans win last elections in all the country, after LA-02.
I think was understandable, a direct nomination of B Biden for his father seat, because he is one of strongest democrats in the state, like we will see in the list of possible candidates for this race. Seems B Biden dont like accept that, and like win the seat running. I can understand too. I hope any democratic candidate can win, and the risk of lose the seat not became very high. Seems B Biden is the democratic frontrunner for this race.
About the pertenence to famous families, for me are in the same case B Biden, R Carnaham, K Sebelius, C Kennedy, A Cuomo, and much others. If the people like, for me not problem with any of they cause came from these families. Not all will be good, and not all will be bad.
This is the list of possible candidates:
- Jack A Markell: DE 1960 Governor of Delaware 09- . DE State Treasurer 99-09.
- Matthew P Denn: DE 1966 Lieutenant Governor of DE 09- . DE Insurance Commissioner 05-09. Lost for DE senate 98.
- John C Carney: DE 1956 Lieutenant Governor of DE 01-09. Lost for governor 08.
- Joseph Robinette Biden III: DE 1969 DE Attorney General 07- .
- Karen Weldin Stewart: DE 19?? DE Insurance Commissioner 09- . Lost for DE Insurance Commissioner 00 and 04.
- Velda Jones-Potter: DE 19?? DE State Treasurer 09- .
The same list for republicans only would have T Wagner veteran DE State Auditor. We can include too M Castle but he is out of age range. They are the republican survivors in the state.
Like we can see in the list, first four names are the strongest, and three of they run in 2008. Only B Biden get without run. K Weldin Stewart win the election in her third bid, and V Jones-Potter receive appointment for succeed J Markell new governor.
From firsts places, J Markell and M Denn won the elections for governor and for lieutenant governor, and J Carney lost for governor but get strong for new races.
That make B Biden and J Carney became the first candidates for run for new offices in 2010, and they can run for senate seat and for house seat, challenging seriously M Castle congressman. Seems so clear B Biden will run for senate. J Carney sound strong for house race, and i think that is logical after he lost for governor. I like encourage him.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---
HI-Sen: Incumbent D Inouye (D-1924) win in 2004 with 76%.
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 with 71%.
VT-Sen: Incumbent P Leahy (D-1940) win in 2004 with 71%.
ND-Sen: Incumbent B Dorgan (D-1942) win in 2004 with 68%.
CT-Sen: Incumbent C Dodd (D- 1944) win in 2004 with 66%.
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 with 65%.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 with 63%.
IN-Sen: Incumbent E Bayh (D-1955) win in 2004 with 62%.
NV-Sen: Incumbent H Reid (D-1939) win in 2004 with 61%.
CA-Sen: Incumbent B Boxer (D-1940) win in 2004 with 58%.
AR-Sen: Incumbent B Lincoln (D-1960) win in 2004 with 56%.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 with 55%.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 with 55%.
IL-Sen: Incumbent R Burris (D-1937). B Obama (D-1961) win in 2004 with 70%.
NY-Sen: Incumbent K Gillibrand (D-1966). H Clinton (D-1947) win in 2006 with 67%.
CO-Sen: Incumbent M Bennet (D-1964). K Salazar (D-1955) win in 2004 with 51%.
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 33 votes = 07,828 => Likely Democratic
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 60 votes = 07,333 => Likely Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan ? after 08 votes = 06,667 => Leans Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 21 votes = 06,349 => Leans Democratic
KS-Sen: open R vs K Sebelius (D-1948) ? after 43 votes = 06,240 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 19 votes = 05,789 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 05,571 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 38 votes = 05,307 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 31 votes = 05,108 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 39 votes = 05,000 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 55 votes = 03,727 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For find any strong candidate more for senate
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.