The next installment in the Wyoming Rule series looks at North and South Carolina.
North Carolina adds 4 congressional districts, going from 13 to 17. In addition to adding the new districts, my map also incorporates some of the GOP's goals for 2011: eliminating Shuler, Kissell, and Miller and making a minority-influenced district in the southeastern part of the state. This results in a 12-5 Republican map.
South Carolina goes up to 8 districts under the Wyoming Rule (the 2010 Census results take SC from 6 to 7 districts). I add in a second AA-majority district in the middle of the state. It isn't pretty, but it's effective. SC is a 6-2 map.
Previous diaries:
ID, NM, OK, TX , VA, WA
Current seat count: 26D-59R
North Carolina
NC-01 G. K. Butterfield (D-Wilson)
Rep. Butterfield retains his black majority, northeastern NC district. AA percentage goes up slightly, as does CPVI.
51.3% AA
66% Obama 33% McCain
D+13
NC-03 Walter Jones (R-Farmville)
Rep. Jones' district becomes a little less spidery in this map. It is still the eastern NC coastline district that takes in much Republican territory. It becomes slightly less Republican, but still safe.
40% Obama 59% McCain
R+13
NC-07 Mike McIntyre (D-Lumberton)
Rep. McIntyre may have a difficult time winning a primary in his new district. The new district, which is more like a combination of the old NC-07 and NC-08, winds around Fayetteville and the southeastern part of the state to take in as many Democratic-voting minorities as possible. It's about 15 more Democratic than the current NC-07
42% white, 36% AA, 11% Native American, 8% Hispanic
62% Obama 37% McCain
D+10
NC-15 Open
This is a new district in the southeastern part of the state that takes in some leftover areas of NC-03 and NC-07. There are a few ancestral Democratic areas here, but it still should be fairly safe Republican.
43% Obama 57% McCain
R+10
Central NC
NC-02 Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn)
Rep. Ellmers district becomes much more compact and takes in the white parts Fayetteville and the fast growing Raleigh suburbs. It loses some of the more Democratic parts of the district and becomes safer for her.
45% Obama 54% McCain
R+9
NC-16 Open
This new district in Raleigh and to the east takes in much of the area of the old NC-02. I would expect another open seat pick up for the Republicans here.
NC-04 David Price (D-Chapel Hill)
Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Democratic vote sink similar to what I would expect for GOP redistricting to turn out in 2011. It is the most Democratic district in the state.
79% Obama 21% McCain
D+23
NC-14 Open
Another Democratic vote sink in the middle of the state. This district snakes from Winston-Salem to High Point to Greensboro to Orange County. There are many Democratic and many minority voters here and ends up being a white pluarlity district. I can see another minority representative being elected here.
47% white, 39% AA, 9.5 Hispanic
70% Obama, 30% McCain
NC-13 Brad Miller (D-Raleigh)
Rep. Miller's district sees significant changes and probably means the end to his run in Congress. The district runs through all the northern border counties in the middle of the state. It takes in some suburbs of Raleigh and Greensboro, but none of the strong Dem inner city areas that Miller needs to be elected. It ends up 15 points more Republican than it is currently.
44% Obama 55% McCain
R+10
NC-6 Howard Coble (R-Greensboro), Larry Kissell (D-Biscoe)
Rep. Coble's district in the middle of the state keeps a lot of its previous territory. However, as the most Republican district in the state, it can afford to add some Democrats. So, I have it head on over to Cary, making it 5 points less Republican. Larry Kissell is also in this district, but he stands no chance here.
41% Obama 58% McCain
R+13
Western North Carolina
NC-05 Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk)
I use Rep. Foxx heavily Republican district to help break up Buncombe County and take out Heath Shuler. It's about 4 points less Republican than it is now, but it still should be pretty safe for her.
42% Obama 56% McCain
NC-11 Heath Shuler (D-Waynesville)
Rep. Shuler is targeted for redistricting. His district not only becomes 6 points more Republican, but it loses his stronghold in Asheville. I find it hard to believe he could be re-elected in this district.
40% Obama 58% McCain
NC-10 Patrick McHenry (R-Cherryville)
Rep. McHenry's district, as the 2nd most Republican in the state, is also used to break up Buncombe County to take out Shuler. It's about 4-5 points less Republican, but again still quite safe.
41% Obama 58% McCain
R+12
NC-12 Mel Watt (D-Charlotte)
Rep. Watt gets a purely Charlotte-based district instead of his current I-85 monstrosity. At 41% AA and 13% Hispanic, it is a coalition minority district. Very safe Democratic.
74% Obama 25% McCain
D+20
NC-09 Sue Myrick (R-Charlotte)
Rep. Myrick's district is one of the least-changed on the map. She loses some territory in Gaston County and picks some up in Anson County. Thanks to NC-12 taking in some Democratic areas around Charlotte, this district becomes 3 points more Republican.
41% Obama 58% McCain
R+14
NC-08 Open
Larry Kissell's old district now takes in a bunch of medium-sized cities in the middle of the state. Concord, Kannapolis, Salisbury, and Lexington are all here. Kissell's home in Biscoe is not located here, so it's a open Republican-leaning district. It is now the most Republican district in the state.
38% Obama 62% McCain
R+17
NC-17 Open
Yet another Republican-leaning new district. This one takes in much of the eastern part of NC-05. It is the second most Republican district under this map.
38% McCain 62% McCain
R+17
South Carolina
SC-01 Tim Scott (R-Charleson)
Rep. Scott's SC-01 now becomes a thin district that takes in the entire coastline. It gets about 5 points more Republican.
37% Obama 62% McCain
R+15
SC-02 Open
Incumbent Joe Wilson does not live in this district anymore, so it would be an open contest. The district snakes through much of the central part of the state to accommodate the two AA-majority districts. It is safely Republican.
37% Obama 62% McCain
R+17
SC-03 Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens)
Rep. Duncan's district gets compacted into the northwestern part of the state. The biggest change is that he now takes in about half of Greenville. Overall, the district shifts one point to the right.
33% Obama 65% McCain
R+18
SC-04 Trey Gowdy (R-Spartanburg)
Rep. Gowdy's district in the northern part of the state gets pushed to the east. SC-03 now takes half of Greenville and Spartanburg moves to the 6th to make that district AA majority. As a result, the district becomes 8 points more Republican.
30% Obama 68% McCain
R+23
SC-05 Mick Mulvaney (R-Lancaster)
Rep. Mulvaney's reward for knocking off long-term incumbent John Spratt is a much safer district. It maintains much of its previous shape, but gets pushed east a little bit and loses some Dem areas in Rock Hill and Fairfield County.
40% Obama 59% McCain
R+13
SC-06 Open
SC-06 remains an AA-majority district that is based in Charleston but snakes through the state to grab some AA majority rural areas. It no longer makes it up to Columbia, so incumbent Jim Clyburn doesn't live here.
55% AA
64% Obama 35% McCain
D+12
SC-07 Joe Wilson (R-Springdale)
Rep. Wilson gets a new district in the western part of the state. It runs from Columbia up to Anderson. Wilson is now very safe in this district that becomes 11 points more Republican.
34% Obama 65% McCain
R+20
SC-08 Jim Clyburn (D-Columbia)
Rep. Clyburn gets a new district that takes in AA areas in the middle and northern part of the state: Columbia, Sumter, Spartanburg, Rock Hill.
50.6% AA
65% Obama 35% McCain
D+13