Arkansas specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on its 32 delegate allocation. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Arkansas has mostly even number of delegates. Thus advantage is acccrued only by breaking through the next level thresholds.
Basic Data: Arkansas has 32 delegates available. There are 4 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations, there are 6 different delegate allocation units. The delegates are evenly spread between 4 and 6. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 4 from CD3; 5 from CD1; 6 from CD2 CD4. In addition from state-wide results 4 PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and 7 at-large delegates are allocated.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 1st March 2016. Arkansas operates an open primary. This means that voting in primary is available to everyone. Voters may request either Democratic or Republican ballot but not both. The presidential primary coincides with state and local primary.
Double Barrel Primary: Presidential preference primary coincides with local and state primaries. Do not forget your local ballot people. Same goes for the General elections too.
Voter ID Laws: A not so strict Voter ID is requested for voting. Does not have to be photo ID. Accepted forms of ID are: Voter ID card issued by County Clerk (Arkansas), Valid Driver's License, Valid Non-driver ID, Valid Arkansas Voter ID, Valid State Issued ID (Arkansas or any other state), Valid Federal Issued ID, Valid US Passport, Valid Employee ID from Federal Government, State of Arkansas, County Government, Municipality, Board, Authority, or other entity of this state, Valid student or employee ID from a college or university in the State of Arkansas (including postgraduate technical or professional schools), Valid Military ID, Valid Tribal ID, Utility Bills.
In addition, a voter who does not have a valid ID in his or her possession at the polls shall be permitted to vote if the individual is positively identified by two election officials as a voter on the poll list who is eligible to vote and the election officials sign a sworn affidavit so stating. {If you have any official document from government including letters, demands etc etc, or if you have utility bills take them with you so that it helps the election officers decide fast}
Additional information is available here http://www.sos.arkansas.gov/elections/Pages/voterRegFAQs.aspx and http://www.sos.arkansas.gov/elections/Pages/voterResources.aspx
So if in doubt turn up and vote.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for achieving delegates on congressional districts based allocations are listed below. I have grouped the Congressional districts which have same available delegates together since the same thresholds and triggers apply to them.
Delegates Acquired
out of available
|
4 del
cd3
|
5 del
cd1
|
6 del
cd2 cd4
|
Delegate Allocation Thresholds/Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
3 del |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
4 del |
85 |
70 |
58.3 |
5 del |
|
85 |
75 |
6 del |
|
|
85 |
For 4 Delegates at CD3: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5% to 62.5% will still have delegates split 2-2. To gain a definitive advantage a candidate needs to cross 62.5% trigger resulting in a delegate split of 3-1.
For 5 Delegates at CD1: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split seems a bit too much of a demand on any campaign. These districts becomes very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Both campaigns probably have that 30% support needed for 2 delegates. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour.
For 6 Delegates at CD2 and CD4: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. To get a 5-1 split is going to take a 75% support level. Even in candidates home states and districts we have not yet seen this kind of support. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 4 PLEOs and 7 At-Large delegates. The small numbers of delegates available also means that a larger movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages
For 4 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5% to 62.5% will still have delegates split 2-2. To gain a definitive advantage a candidate needs to cross 62.5% trigger resulting in a delegate split of 3-1. Due to small number of triggers both categories are presented in single table. For each trigger, a corresponding PLEO and at-Large delegates at that trigger are shown.
Vote Share% |
15 |
21.4 |
35.7 |
37.5 |
50 |
62.5 |
64.3 |
78.6 |
85 |
|
|
State-wide Delegate Allocation Triggers
PLEO (4Del) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
|
|
At-Large (7Del) |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
For 7 State-wide (At-Large) Delegates: Since these have an odd number of delegates, Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. 6-1 split happens at 78.6. Again this is an unlikely scenario. Question is will Sanders be able to cross the threshold of 64.3% to force a 5-2 split or will he have to be satisfied with 4-3 split. Roughly 14.3% votes translate to 1 delegate. The table above shows the Both category specific trigger percentages and their corresponding delegates. The at large delegates listed here are corresponding numbers at PLEO percentages.
Next bit is my personal opinion: I suspect every odd delegate break will go on Clinton favour. making mostly 3-2 delegate split. Others being fought over to cross or CD1 (3-2): CD2 (4-2): CD3 (2-2): CD4 (4-2): Statewide (3-2) (4-3). Resulting in total (20-12). Most of the contest is likely to be at 58.3 to 64.3% region for those extra triggers to push or deny favourable breaks.
Previously covered states: Alabama and South-Carolina and Virginia and Massachusetts and New-Hampshire and Vermont
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Currently I am running through the list of states. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.
Meanwhile for a break I suggest reading our own guavaboy diaries with some optimistic changes in Nepal economic blockade by India.http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/02/05/1480305/-Feb-5th-the-Nepal-BLOCKADE-in-Birgunj-is-LIFTED-after-135-days