The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● CA-50: On Tuesday evening, former San Diego City Councilor Carl DeMaio conceded defeat in last week's top-two primary to his fellow Republican, former 49th District Rep. Darrell Issa.
With 185,000 votes counted, 2018 Democratic nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar is in first place with 36%, while Issa holds a 24-20 lead over DeMaio for the second spot in the general election. This inland San Diego County seat backed Donald Trump 55-40, so Issa will be the favorite to win the November contest to succeed another Republican, the disgraced ex-Rep. Duncan Hunter.
Campaign Action
Issa defeated DeMaio after a very expensive and very ugly battle. Issa launched a TV spot in January that, in addition to relying on the racism against Hispanics that has become a staple of GOP ads during the Trump era, also repeatedly reminded the viewer that DeMaio is gay. The commercial drew condemnation from several local Republicans, but Issa stood by the ad and unconvincingly argued that he didn't consider the word "gay" to be a slur.
Issa continued to run more racist ads against DeMaio over the next few weeks that argued that the former councilman was on the wrong side of Trump when it comes to immigration. DeMaio himself also aired commercials claiming that Issa was the one who had been disloyal to Trump, but it wasn't enough.
If Issa wins this fall, he'll revive a political career that seemed all but dead just months ago. Progressives across the nation were delighted in January of 2018 when Issa, who spent years using his position as chair of the House Oversight Committee—and millions in taxpayer dollars—to launch bogus investigation after bogus investigation against the Obama administration, announced that he would retire from Congress.
Issa's decision came just over a year after he'd narrowly won re-election in the 49th District, a once-safely red seat that had swung from 52-46 Romney to 51-43 Clinton; that fall, Democrat Mike Levin went on to decisively flip Issa's constituency.
However, while Issa was done with the 49th District, he wasn't actually done with Congress. Weeks after he announced he would retire, reports emerged that Issa was considering switching to the 50th District if Hunter, who was under investigation for misusing campaign money, resigned. Hunter refused to go anywhere, though, and Issa wasn't on the ballot anywhere in 2018.
Trump picked Issa to lead the U.S. Trade and Development Agency in September of that year, but his nomination quickly stalled in the Senate. After months of waiting, Issa decided to form an exploratory committee in the summer to run against Hunter, who was now under indictment but insisted he'd run for re-election. Before Issa announced if he'd seek the 50th District, though, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee scheduled a confirmation hearing that would have taken place exactly a year after Trump first picked him.
Issa said he wouldn't try to return to Congress if he got the agency post, but he never got confirmed. Instead, New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, who is the committee's top Democrat, called for the hearings to be delayed, saying that information in Issa's FBI background check was "problematic" and "potentially disqualifying." Menendez didn't reveal what those bogeys were, but Republican Sen. Jim Risch, the committee's leader, agreed to postpone the hearings until the Trump administration gave Issa's file to the full panel.
We never got to find out what was in the document, since Issa quickly withdrew his name from consideration and launched his congressional comeback bid. Issa himself argued that Menendez was simply rehashing public information about the former congressman's time in the Army nearly 50 years ago: That military career included a demotion and an "unsatisfactory" conduct rating, as well as an allegation that Issa stole another soldier's car. However, Menendez said there was more troubling information in Issa's file, adding, "If they were all public, then we wouldn't be having the difficulty that we have."
Issa's bid to succeed Hunter, who pleaded guilty in December and resigned a month later, went considerably better, though. While The Hill had reported in June that many House Republicans didn't want Issa back because he'd "rubbed colleagues the wrong way," House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy ended up endorsing his comeback campaign. Both Issa and DeMaio raised more money during the final three months of 2019 than any non-incumbent Republican candidate in any of the nation's other House races, but the uber wealthy Issa also threw down plenty of his own cash.
While Issa's victory last week gives him a strong chance to revive his long political career, the outcome is yet another narrow defeat for a man who has long been talked about as a rising California Republican star. DeMaio, who was arguably the most prominent gay Republican officeholder in the nation, was Team Red's candidate in 2012 to lead San Diego, but he lost to then-Democratic Rep. Bob Filner 52-48.
National Republicans were thrilled the following year when DeMaio launched a bid to take on Democratic Rep. Scott Peters in the 52nd District: DeMaio even decided to stay in that race after an early 2014 special election was scheduled to succeed Filner, who resigned after multiple women accused him of harassment. The mayoral contest was won by fellow Republican Kevin Faulconer, but DeMaio lost his own expensive battle against Peters 52-48 later that year.
DeMaio soon became a prominent conservative radio host in the San Diego area, and he was the face of the 2018 effort to both repeal a gas tax the legislature passed the previous year to fund highway improvements and to recall state Sen. Josh Newman for voting for the bill. Newman did lose the recall campaign that June, but the gas tax repeal went down in flames in November 57-43. DeMaio left his gig last summer to run for Hunter's 50th District, but this campaign ended in yet another close loss for him.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Both former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions and ex-Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville released polls on Tuesday just before Donald Trump tweeted out his endorsement for Tuberville.
Sessions first dropped a survey from OnMessage Inc. that showed him tied 45-45 with Tuberville in the March 31 GOP primary runoff. Tuberville then responded by releasing a poll from Moore Information that showed him defeating Sessions by a wide 49-38 margin. Two other polls released this week gave Tuberville leads of 6 and 12 points, respectively, in the contest to take on Democratic Sen. Doug Jones.
● AZ-Sen: The local GOP firm OH Predictive Insights is the latest pollster to give Democrat Mark Kelly a clear lead over appointed GOP Sen. Martha McSally. The new survey finds Kelly ahead 49-42, which is an improvement from the 47-44 edge he enjoyed in December.
Another Arizona GOP pollster, HighGround Public Affairs, released a survey last month that showed Kelly up 46-39, while the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found him ahead 47-42. McSally responded to these unfavorable numbers earlier this week by dusting off a late January poll taken for her campaign that showed her ahead by a slim 47-45 margin.
Both candidates began running TV ads in recent weeks, and Kelly is out with a new spot focused on prescription drug costs.
● MT-Sen: Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock has announced that he raised $1.2 million in the 24 hours since he announced his bid against GOP Sen. Steve Daines. Daines, for his part, is out with another TV spot where he declares, "We can't allow the liberals in Washington to turn America into a socialist country."
● New Mexico: Candidate filing closed Tuesday for New Mexico's June 2 primary, and the state has a list of contenders available here.
The state allows congressional and statewide candidates to automatically get on the ballot by taking at least 20% of the vote at their party's pre-primary conventions, which took place the weekend before filing closed. Whoever took first at the party gathering also earned the top spot on the ballot.
Any candidate who took less than 20% at the convention could also make it to June by collecting signatures. The state requires candidates to turn in enough valid petitions "equal to at least two percent of the total vote of the candidate's party in the state or congressional district, or the following number of voters, whichever is greater: for statewide offices, two hundred thirty voters; and for congressional candidates, seventy-seven voters."
● NM-Sen: Democratic Sen. Tom Udall is retiring, and Rep. Ben Ray Luján, who served as DCCC chair during the 2016 and 2018 cycles, has no opposition in the primary to succeed him.
Three Republicans ended up filing to take on Luján: anti-abortion activist Elisa Martinez, who won the GOP convention; former TV meteorologist Mark Ronchetti; and Gavin Clarkson, who badly lost the 2018 primary for the 2nd Congressional District. New Mexico has moved to the left in recent years, and none of the Republicans appear strong enough to give the well-connected Luján a serious fight. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Safe Democratic.
House
● IL-14: With days to go before Tuesday's GOP primary to face freshman Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood, a mysterious group called the Illinois Conservative PAC is in the midst of what the Daily Herald reports is a $710,000 buy against state Sen. Jim Oberweis. We don't have a copy of any of the PAC's TV spots, but one of its radio ads says of Oberweis, "Higher taxes, personally attacking President Donald Trump, and comparing pro-lifers to terrorists, that's the real Jim Oberweis."
● NM-02: Democrat Xochitl Torres Small beat Republican Yvette Herrell 51-49 last cycle to win an open seat race for this 50-40 Trump seat in the southern part of the state, and the congresswoman will be a top GOP target this year.
Herrell, who spent the months following her defeat making evidence-free allegations of "voting irregularities,” is running again, and she decisively won the convention over the weekend. Herrell's main primary foe is oil businesswoman Claire Chase, who entered the race in September with plenty of fanfare but soon ran into problems over her old 2016 social media posts attacking Donald Trump. Businessman Chris Mathys, who has been self-funding almost his entire campaign, is also in.
● NM-03: Seven Democrats ended up filing to succeed Senate candidate Ben Ray Luján in this reliably blue seat in the northern part of the state.
Attorney Teresa Leger Fernandez has the support of EMILY's List, and she decisively won the party convention over the weekend. The only other candidate who made the ballot by taking enough support at the party gathering was Sandoval County Treasurer Laura Montoya. Montoya, though, had a mere $9,000 on-hand at the end of last year.
Five other Democrats decided to petition their way onto the ballot. The best known contender nationally is former CIA agent Valerie Plame, who was at the center of a national firestorm that lasted for years during the presidency of George W. Bush after prominent conservative columnist Robert Novak revealed in print that she was a covert agent. Plame outraised the rest of the field during 2019 thanks in part to a strong campaign video, and she ended December with a $587,000 to $431,000 cash-on-hand lead over Leger Fernandez.
The other four petitioning candidates are John Blair, a former New Mexico deputy secretary of state; state Rep. Joseph Sanchez; First Judicial District Attorney Marco Serna; and environmental attorney Kyle Tisdel. Serna had $333,000 to spend compared to Blair’s $142,000, while Sanchez and Tisdel had just $49,000 and $24,000 to spend, respectively. Another announced candidate, Navajo Nation official Dineh Benally, did not end up filing to run.
Correction: This item mistakenly swapped cash-on-hand figures for John Blair and Joseph Sanchez.
● OH-03: Rep. Joyce Beatty is out with a positive TV spot ahead of next week's Democratic primary for this safely blue Columbus seat. The commercial features old clips of Beatty being praised by Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, and features the congresswoman talking about standing up to Donald Trump to protect healthcare.
Beatty's commercial does not mention Morgan Harper, the former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau advisor who is giving the incumbent her first-ever serious primary challenge. Beatty, though, outspent Harper by a huge $892,000 to $234,000 margin from Jan. 1 to Feb. 26 (which the FEC defines as the pre-primary period), and Beatty had a $1.2 million to $157,000 cash-on-hand edge for the homestretch.
● Oregon: Candidate filing closed Tuesday for Oregon's May 19 primary, and the state has a list of contenders available here.
● OR-02: Rep. Greg Walden, who is the state's only Republican member of Congress, is also the only member of the Oregon delegation who isn't seeking re-election. A total of 11 Republicans filed to succeed him, and whoever wins the primary should have no trouble in the general election in this red seat in the eastern part of the state.
The best-known candidate to readers is probably former state Rep. Knute Buehler, who was Team Red's 2018 gubernatorial nominee. Buehler, though, identified himself as pro-choice during that campaign, which could make it difficult for him to win the GOP nod this time. Indeed, Oregon Right to Life pledged last week to spend $250,000 to beat Buehler.
Two elected officials, state Sen. Cliff Bentz and Bend City Councilor Justin Livingston, are also in, as is former state Sen. Jason Atkinson. The best-funded candidate, though, is businessman Jimmy Crumpacker. Crumpacker, who has been self-funding part of his campaign, ended December with a $577,000 to $353,000 cash-on-hand lead over Buehler, while Bentz and Atkinson had $171,000 and $82,000 to spend, respectively. (Livingston only entered the race in late February.)
● OR-04: Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio looks like he's once again avoided a competitive general election in a coastal Oregon seat that Hillary Clinton carried by a tiny 46.1-46.0 spread.
Alek Skarlatos, a former Oregon National Guardsman who made global headlines when he helped stop a terrorist attack on a Paris-bound train in 2015, attracted some attention when he launched his campaign in August. Skarlatos, though, ended 2019 with a mere $28,000 on-hand, while DeFazio had $1.5 million to spend. The only other GOP candidate is businessman Nelson Ijih, who filed with the FEC in September but still hasn't reported raising any cash.
One candidate who decided not to run, though, is former state GOP chair Art Robinson, who was Team Red's nominee against DeFazio every cycle beginning in 2010. Robinson was waging his sixth campaign for this seat until Tuesday, when he switched over the race to succeed state Senate Minority Leader Herman Baertschiger, who had only announced his retirement the day before. Baertschiger's seat backed Donald Trump 63-30, so winning a GOP primary would finally get Robinson into elected office.
● OR-05: Rep. Kurt Schrader, who is one of the more moderate Democrats in the House, faces a primary challenge from the left from Milwaukie Mayor Mark Gamba. Gamba's campaign hasn't attracted much outside support, though, and the incumbent held a $3 million to $27,000 cash-on-hand lead at the end of December. Another Democrat, bar owner Blair Reynolds, is also in, and he could split whatever anti-Schrader vote there is.
This seat, which includes Salem, backed Hillary Clinton just 48-44, but Republicans haven't seriously targeted Schrader since 2010. No Republican had so much as $6,000 on-hand at the end of December, so Schrader once again seems to have an easy general election in store.
● TX-22: Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls is out with a poll from Remington Research Group that gives him a huge 61-28 lead over self-funder Kathaleen Wall in the May GOP runoff for this open seat. Nehls outpaced Wall 41-19 in the first round of the primary last week. The winner will face 2018 Democratic nominee Sri Preston Kulkarni in this 52-44 Trump seat in the southern Houston suburbs.
Election Result Recaps
● MS-04: GOP Rep. Steven Palazzo had no trouble winning renomination against two self-funders on Tuesday in this safely red Gulf Coast seat. Palazzo took 67% of the vote, while Biloxi City Councilman Robert Deming was a distant second with 14%.
● NC-LG: State Sen. Terry Van Duyn announced Tuesday that she would not request a Democratic primary runoff against state Rep. Yvonne Lewis Holley, a decision that makes Holley Team Blue's nominee for this open seat.
Holley outpaced Van Duyn 27-20 last week, which was a little below the 30% she needed to avoid a second round of voting in May. However, North Carolina requires the runner-up to request a runoff, which Van Duyn chose not to do. Holley will take on Republican Mark Robinson, a first-time candidate who became a conservative celebrity for his 2018 speech protesting the cancellation of a gun show in Greensboro.
Either Holley or Robinson would be North Carolina's first black lieutenant governor, as well as only the second African American to ever be elected to a statewide executive office in the Tar Heel State. (The first was Democrat Ralph Campbell, who was elected state auditor in 1992 and narrowly lost his bid for a fourth term in 2004.) Wake County Commissioner Jessica Holmes, who is the Democratic nominee to succeed retiring Republican Cherie Berry as state labor commissioner, would also have that distinction if she defeats GOP state Rep. Josh Dobson this fall.
● Special elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's two special elections, which included a surprising flip for Democrats:
MI-HD-34: Democrat Cynthia Neeley easily defeated Republican Adam Ford 92-8 to hold this seat for both her party and family. Neely's husband, Sheldon Neeley, represented this district for three terms before being sworn in as mayor of Flint last year. Neeley's lopsided win is not surprising in a deep blue district that went for Hillary Clinton 85-12 and Barack Obama 91-8. This chamber is back at full strength, and Republicans have a narrow 58-52 advantage.
NH-HD-Merrimack 24: Democrats scored their first legislative flip of 2020 on Tuesday when Kathleen Martins turned back Republican Elliot Axelman 51-49. Martins' victory is especially impressive in light of the support Axelman received from Gov. Chris Sununu and longtime New Hampshire political operative and 2020 House candidate Matt Mowers.
Martins' win is a surprising reversal of fortunes for Democrats in a district that has long been decidedly Republican and supported Donald Trump 53-43 and Mitt Romney 54-45. Democrats now hold one of the four seats in this multi-member district; the GOP controls the remaining three. As for this chamber at-large, Democrats expand their lead to 234-162 (with one Libertarian member) and three other seats vacant.