The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● OR-02: Knute Buehler, a former state representative who was the 2018 GOP nominee for governor of Oregon, announced Tuesday that he would seek the open and safely red 2nd Congressional District. Buehler lost an expensive race last year to Democratic incumbent Kate Brown 50-44, and he may benefit from lingering name recognition in the May primary to succeed retiring Rep. Greg Walden in this eastern Oregon seat.
Campaign Action
However, Buehler has taken a number of stances during his political career that may have been helpful in a statewide race but toxic in a primary. Notably, Buehler identifies himself as pro-choice, and during his last campaign he pledged, "Regardless of what happens at the federal level, Oregon will remain a pro-choice state." Buehler also was one of three Republicans in the state House to support a gun safety bill last year.
Several anti-abortion groups were unenthusiastic about Buehler last time, and they unsuccessfully tried to recruit a strong candidate to oppose him in the primary. The two Republicans who ended up taking on Buehler, businessman Sam Carpenter and retired Navy pilot Greg Wooldridge, both ran to his right and stressed their opposition to abortion, but they struggled to raise money. Buehler ended up defeating Carpenter 46-29, while Wooldridge took 20%. The result was similar for the 2nd District to what it was statewide: We estimate that Buehler beat Carpenter 46-33 here, with Wooldridge in third with 17%.
While Buehler's primary victory last year demonstrated that a self-declared pro-choice candidate could still win a GOP primary in Oregon, he may have a tougher time winning the GOP nod to succeed Walden. While Republicans looking to defeat Brown in this blue state may have been willing to ignore Buehler's apostasies in the name of electability, they won't need to make that sort of compromise to hold this 57-36 Trump seat.
Buehler also is likely to face much tougher challengers next cycle than he did last time. While neither of Buehler's 2018 foes had won elected office, the current GOP field for the 2nd District includes state Sen. Cliff Bentz and former state Sen. Jason Atkinson. However, Oregon only requires candidates to take a plurality of the vote to win the primary, so Buehler may be able to win the GOP nod even if a majority of Republican voters once again go for other candidates.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions recently released a survey showing him far ahead of former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville and his other many rivals in the March GOP primary, but Tuberville's allies at the Alabama Farmers Federation are out with their own poll showing a far closer race. The survey, which the group tells us was done by the GOP firm Cherry Communications, shows Sessions leading Tuberville just 35-31, which is very different than the 44-21 edge Sessions’ poll found.
What the two surveys do agree on, though, is that the other GOP candidates are a bit behind Sessions and Tuberville. Cherry shows Rep. Bradley Byrne in third place with 12% of the vote, while 2017 nominee Roy Moore is at 8%. Two other candidates, state Rep. Arnold Mooney and businessman Stanley Adair, each take only 1%. A runoff would be held if no one takes a majority of the vote in the first round of the primary.
● AZ-Sen: OH Predictive Insights (R): Mark Kelly (D): 47, Martha McSally (R-inc): 44 (Aug: 46-41 Kelly)
● GA-Sen-B: While former GOP Rep. Jack Kingston said last month that he might run in the special election if he didn't get appointed to the Senate, he announced Monday that he would support Sen.-designate Kelly Loeffler instead.
● ME-Sen: While GOP Sen. Susan Collins still hasn't confirmed that she'll seek a fifth term, that's not stopping her from launching yet another TV spot.
Gubernatorial
● NC-Gov: While former GOP Gov. Pat McCrory hasn't shown any interest in months about seeking a rematch with Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, he explicitly didn't rule out the idea on Wednesday. McCrory told his radio show audience, "This is a decision for me and my family." The filing deadline is Dec. 20, so McCrory would have to make his decision very soon.
McCrory's comments came the day after the conservative Civitas Institute released a survey from the GOP firm Harper Polling that showed him beating Lt. Gov. Dan Forest 42-31 in a hypothetical March primary, while state Rep. Holly Grange took just 3%. Unlike McCrory, Forest and Grange have been running against Cooper for months.
House
● CA-25: Speaker Nancy Pelosi has joined much of the state and national Democratic establishment and endorsed Assemblywoman Christy Smith.
● FL-03: A few North Florida Republicans are starting to show interest in running to succeed retiring Rep. Ted Yoho in this 56-40 Trump seat. Clay County Commissioner Gavin Rollins says he’s “seriously considering a run,” and will announce his plans after the holidays.
Rollins was in the news in late November when he introduced a resolution to declare Clay County a sanctuary county … for the 2nd Amendment. Four other Florida counties have already declared themselves 2nd Amendment sanctuaries and said that they won’t enforce any gun safety laws passed by another legislative body.
Politico also reports that state Sen. Keith Perry also wants to run, but that incoming Senate President Wilton Simpson is opposed to the idea. Perry’s state Senate seat backed Trump 48.2-48.0, and Senate Republicans don’t want to spend money to defend it next year when they have just a modest 23-17 majority in the chamber. However, fellow state Sen. Rob Bradley says he won’t run to succeed Yoho.
● FL-15: This week, state Rep. Adam Hattersley picked up an endorsement from Rep. Stephanie Murphy for the Democratic nod to take on GOP Rep. Ross Spano. The other notable candidate in the August Democratic primary, former local TV news anchor Alan Cohn, also earned the backing of both former Sen. Bob Graham and his daughter, former Rep. and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Gwen Graham.
● NC-13, NC-Sen, NC-10: It seems that no one has any idea what GOP Rep. Mark Walker will do next year, including Walker himself, now that redistricting has utterly scrambled his old 6th District. Last week the National Journal reported that Walker had decided to either challenge Sen. Thom Tillis in the March GOP primary or wait until 2022 to run for office again. However, Politico writes that Walker is still thinking about taking on another House GOP incumbent this cycle in addition to Tillis.
Politico adds that Walker has privately told Rep. Patrick McHenry that he won't run against him in the new 10th District, but it seems that Walker hasn't ruled out facing off with incumbent Ted Budd in the new 13th District. The only thing that seems clear at this point is that Walker seems ready to keep everyone, including himself, guessing for the next week. Politico adds, "North Carolina Republicans who have spoken to Walker said he vacillates constantly between his alternatives and likely won't decide until close to the Dec. 20 deadline."
Budd himself isn't waiting for Walker to make up his mind, though. Medium Buying reports that Budd will begin airing cable TV ads on Friday, though we don't have word on the size of the buy.
However, Politico also notes that some Republicans have urged Walker to run for lieutenant governor, which would let him avoid a primary against an incumbent. Several Republicans are already seeking this open seat, though, so Walker wouldn't be able to avoid a primary. Ironically, the field includes former Rep. Renee Ellmers, who was a redistricting victim the last time North Carolina had to redo its congressional map in 2016.
● NM-02: 2018 GOP nominee Yvette Herrell is out with a survey of the June primary from the Tarrance Group that gives her a wide lead in the contest to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small. Tarrance shows Herrell beating oil businesswoman Claire Chase 43-13, while businessman Chris Mathys is in third with 12%.
Even if Tarrance is on target here, though, Herrell may have a difficult time holding onto whatever lead she has closer to the primary. Herrell likely still has plenty of residual name recognition with GOP primary voters from her narrow loss against Torres Small last year, while Chase hasn't been on the ballot before. Chase is a very strong fundraiser, though, and she'll have the resources to get her name out.
Chase outraised Herrell $511,000 to $140,000 during the third quarter, and while Chase held a modest $475,000 to $390,000 cash-on-hand lead at the end of September, she could pull further ahead if she has another strong quarter. Myers, who has been self-funding almost his entire campaign, had $200,000 to spend.
This southern New Mexico seat backed Trump 50-40, and Torres Small will be a top GOP target. Torres Small has been preparing accordingly, and she ended September with close to $1.5 million in the bank.
● NY-02: GOP Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino filed paperwork for a fundraising committee last week, and Newsday identified him as a candidate after talking to him. There's no quote from Garbarino saying that he's running for this competitive open seat, though, and he doesn't appear to have any website or social media accounts promoting him as a congressional candidate yet.
● NY-19: Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro was re-elected last month 59-41, and state GOP Chairman Nick Langworthy says that the two will meet soon to discuss Molinaro's interest in taking on freshman Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado. Molinaro once again declined to publicly express interest in running or rule it out, saying only, "Having just won re-election as county executive, I'm focused on the work before us, the community I love and people I serve."
The GOP has been trying to recruit Molinaro for this competitive seat for months, and they may need him because none of their current candidates look very strong. Former New York National Guard adjutant general Anthony German had only about $50,000 in the bank at the end of September, while fashion designer Ola Hawatmeh had a mere $5,000. Delgado, by contrast, had $1.5 million to spend.
This seat, which includes much of the Hudson Valley, backed Donald Trump 51-44, but Delgado unseated freshman GOP Rep. John Faso 51-46 in an expensive race two years later. That same day, Molinaro carried the 19th District against Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo by a wide 53-42 margin despite his landslide statewide defeat.
● PA-01: The GOP firm Remington Research is out with a survey for the Congressional Leadership Fund that gives GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick a 50-36 lead in a hypothetical general election against Pennsbury school board member Debbie Wachspress. The memo did not mention either of Wachspress' Democratic primary foes, Bucks County housing department official Christina Finello and Bucks County Prothonotary Judi Reiss.
● TX-13: Rep. Ron Wright has endorsed businessman Chris Ekstrom in the very crowded GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Mac Thornberry in this safely red seat.
● WA-10: State Superintendent of Public Instruction Chris Reykdal said this week that he wouldn't run to succeed retiring Rep. Denny Heck, who is a fellow Democrat.
Mayoral
● San Diego, CA Mayor: In a previous Digest, we incorrectly said that a candidate could win the race for mayor of San Diego outright in the March nonpartisan primary if they take a majority of the vote. However, while that used to be the case in local elections, voters approved Measure K in 2016 that now requires the top-two vote-getters from the primary to advance to the November general election. This rule applies to candidates for mayor, city attorney, and for the City Council.
Other Races
● Los Angeles County, CA District Attorney: This week, prosecutor Richard Ceballos dropped out of the March nonpartisan primary. Ceballos called for his supporters to vote against incumbent Jackie Lacey, though he didn't endorse either former San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón or public defender Rachel Rossi.