Curious as to what the Senate field will look like for this cycle? Well, September promises to reveal much. On top for this coming month:
Alaska
This wasn't supposed to be on the radar, but with the FBI swarming around Sen. Tubes Stevens' house and offices, it's now become a top Democratic pickup opportunity. The DSCC is really hoping that the state's Democratic wunderkind, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, will pick up the mantle. The DCCC was also trying to recruit Begich for a race against the equally tainted Rep. Don Young, but they'll probably have to "settle" for someone like House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (which wouldn't be too shabby).
Begich is still mulling the bid, and a decision is expected "in the Fall", though everyone is hoping for a September decision.
Kentucky
It looks likely that Democratic Attorney General Greg Stumbo is our nominee, but Ben Chandler has stoked the flames a bit by saying he hasn't ruled out a run. The CW is that Chandler is waiting for 2010, when he faces either a senile jim Bunning or (more likely) an open seat. But with the GOP's position crashing and burning nationally and in Kentucky, Chandler could deliver a killing blow to the man who has bedeviled Kentucky Democrats for decades.
Nebraska
All eyes are on Republican incumbent Chuck Hagel, who is set to announce whether he runs for reelection, runs for president, runs for both, or retires from politics altogether. If he runs for reelection in the Senate, this race is off the board. No one seems to have the appetite to challenge him. And while he's terrible on just about every issue, he'd be a plus vote on our efforts to end the war. So all wouldn't be bad.
But if he does retire, look for former Sen. Bob Kerrey to make a bid. And if he does, Lieberman will have another ally in the Senate. Is that good or bad for us? The jury would definitely be out. We could also have a contested Democratic primary with Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey in the mix. He'd likely be infinitely better.
New Hampshire
Former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen will decide whether she's getting in. If she does, she likely clears the field and goes on to defeat incumbent Republican John Sununu by 20 points. It wouldn't even be close.
If she doesn't run (only a 30 percent chance, per the rumors), Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, Lieberdem Katrina Swett, and professor Jay Buckey would fight it out for a chance at taking out Sununu. Any of them would have an even chance to win (but god forbid another Lieberman ally in the Senate), while Shaheen makes it as close as a "done deal" as is ever possible in politics.
New Mexico
So far, the only "serious" Democratic challenger to corrupt Pajamas Pete Domenici appears to be Don Wiviott, an environmentally friendly housing developer. Seems like a nice enough guy, but with no name recognition or electoral experience. He could be a solid candidate (you never know from where the best candidates will emerge), but all eyes will still be on the state to see if anyone higher profile and with more electoral experience enters the mix.
North Carolina
Liddy Dole isn't an electoral tour de force, yet all's been quiet in this state this year. That's expected to change in September as we finally get the candidate who will make Dole fight for her life.
Tennessee
Has Sen. Lamar! Alexander even announced he's running for reelection? There's a persistent rumor in Tennessee that alum Alexander is eyeing the open Chancellor slot at Vanderbilt University. He has done little to distinguish himself as a senator, and the good life as head of an elite Southern educational institution likely suits him better.
If he retires, expect former Rep. and DLC Chair Harold Ford to join the fray. Or maybe not. Ford has his heart set on the Governor's mansion after current Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen vacates in 2010. The name often bandied about right now as a challenger to Alexander is Mike McWherter, the son of a former popular governor. A McWherter candidacy would kick this race up to the second-tier, with strong potential for top-tier status.
Virginia
It's all about the Warners. If John (R) announces his retirement in September, as expected, then Mark (D) becomes the favorite in what would be a tough but definitely winnable race against Republican Rep. Tom Davis (who is raising money like there's no tomorrow). The wrinkle is that Mark (D) seems more interested in running for governor again, a gig he loved, than in being one of 100 across the river in DC.
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