(Updated) Restless Math Syndrome: The Edwards 7 Premise (w/Poll)

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Thursday May 15, 2008 · 4:21 AM PDT

2008/05/15 · 04:21

May 20, Barack Obama will declare pledged delegate victory. Oregon'll be a fun results tracker diary.

3 weeks ago, Jed grasped the importance of perception of whether it's voters or supers putting Obama over the top.

One week left. Here are my topline conclusions about what it will take (nitty gritty details spelled out below):

47 pledged delegates from KY/OR Tuesday. 99% lock.
4 add-ons this weekend. CO(1), CA(2) a formality. KS(1) expected.
49 supers or Edwards pledged not from MI/FL. Avg 7 per day for the next 7 days.
7 Edwards-committed pledged switchers. Note: Count toward the 49 if from Iowa, NH or SC, otherwise they're extra.

Thu May 15 - 7 supers or E-pledged
Fri May 16 - 7 supers or E-pledged
Sat May 17 - 9 supers or E-pledged (incl. CO add-on Frederico Pena, KS add-on)
Sun May 18 - 9 supers or E-pledged (incl. 2 California add-ons)
Mon May 19 - 7 supers or E-pledged
Tue May 20 - 7 supers or E-pledged; Obama wins 47 pledged delegates
Wed May 21 - 7 supers or E-pledged

Poll

117 votes Show Results

7 new supers per day?

117 votes Vote Now!

7 new supers per day?

Over

22 votes

Push

46 votes

Under

49 votes

All This Punditry, and I Just Have To Laugh

PocketNines

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Wednesday May 14, 2008 · 1:38 AM PDT

2008/05/14 · 01:38

I confess, I didn't even watch one second of cable news on Tuesday. I played poker. I got a friend on the phone nearly 3 hours after the polls closed, and he gave me a hilarious, gorgeously profane encapsulation of the massive insipidry of Greater Pundolia.

Right as we were winding up our conversation, he mentions, reading off TV:

"Breaking: Democrat wins special election in Mississippi."

I started laughing. All that effort in punditry. So pointless. All the exit poll wankery, so much drilling down, so little feel for the spirit at loose in the land.

Poll

91 votes Show Results

81% = how many Standard Deviations of Everloving Shit that America hates Republicans?

91 votes Vote Now!

81% = how many Standard Deviations of Everloving Shit that America hates Republicans?

One

5 votes

Two?

5 votes

Three-ish

23 votes

Nineteen

58 votes

Math and Magic Numbers on West Virginia's Primary Day

PocketNines

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Tuesday May 13, 2008 · 1:44 PM PDT

2008/05/13 · 13:44

Today is May 13, 2008, and West Virginia, a state that matters like all the rest, is going to the polls.

We already know this will be a bad day for Barack Obama in the pledged delegate count. But I encourage those of you tempted to harbor bad feelings for a state because it doesn't support the candidate I favor and most of you favor not to do so. See the big picture, and get a smile on your face.

The talkers on TV don't matter. What matters is that the incredibly effective team running Barack Obama's presidential campaign has executed a masterful plan from the beginning all the way to the nomination. They don't get too high, they don't get too low, they don't leak. They just like, respect and believe in their guy.

The bottom line is this. Barack Obama is going to give an acceptance speech on Thursday, August 28, 2008 in Denver, Colorado that is going to make you god damn proud to be an American. Non-citizens will see that while America can fail its ideals sometimes, the best of what America can produce is still pretty magnificent too.

So West Virginia, you matter.

PocketNines

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Thursday May 08, 2008 · 11:30 PM PDT

2008/05/08 · 23:30

We have crossed another landmark moment in the superdelegate race. With the endorsement of Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR) and the flip of Rep. Donald Payne (NJ), even under Clinton counting of the Florida/Michigan delegations, Barack Obama leads in every individual category of elected superdelegate: Governor, Senator, Representative.

True, the race is in the post-checkmate phase, but it sure is fun officially touching the bases and I have had this diary in the queue for some time, so here it is.

Barack Obama leads in Governors 14-11 [14-12].

Barack Obama leads in Senators 18-13 [18-15]. Maria Cantwell will flip after May 20, so it's really 19-12 [19-14].

Barack Obama leads in Representatives 83-78 [86-85].

[Florida and Michigan in brackets]

Poll

91 votes Show Results

At least 7 more on Friday?

91 votes Vote Now!

At least 7 more on Friday?

Yes.

62 votes

No, Saturday.

29 votes

My Advice to Fellow Obama Supporters for Unity (Updated)

PocketNines

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Wednesday May 07, 2008 · 5:00 PM PDT

2008/05/07 · 17:00

This will be a relatively short diary, attempting to expand on a comment I made in dawnt's excellent diary.

There are calls for unity from Obama supporters and Clinton supporters alike. As an Obama supporter I have a swirl of emotions about the tone and tactics of the recent campaign. I fully get the practical need to come together.

I also understand the resistance fellow Obama supporters feel toward immediately displacing honestly come-by antipathy about Clinton campaign tactics. I am sure I'm not alone in feeling that many things crossed non-negotiable moral lines that mark out why we joined the Democratic Party in the first place. Living out our best selves by embracing the better angels of our nature is easier said than done.

PocketNines

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Tuesday May 06, 2008 · 2:07 PM PDT

2008/05/06 · 14:07

It's Tuesday, Sixo de Mayo, 2008. Someone forgot to tell North Carolina it wasn't a big, mattering state in time to cancel this foolishness. So they're having it. Polls close at 7:30 EDT.

IMMEDIATELY CALLED FOR OBAMA AT 7:30PM EDT.

After tonight, there are 37 mini-races left, and Obama has been viable in every single one of these races so far, which means 1 delegate. 135 pledged delegates to clinch the majority. That means the magic number tonight is 98. 98 means checkmate.

NC Board of Elections, USA Today

PocketNines

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Monday May 05, 2008 · 11:22 AM PDT

2008/05/05 · 11:22

The popular vote is a fallacy, as I've written before. A brief recap: 1) Candidates would camp out in large urban areas like LA and Brooklyn and never spend so many millions trying to split 200,000 votes in the whole state of NH; 2) No state would rationally hold a caucus, thereby disenfranchising its say in the nomination selection; and 3) unlike the general election concept of one person, one vote, allowing independents or Republicans to vote in some states but not others badly skews the simplistic moral argument underpinning popular vote.

Tuesday night, I am watching two numbers. First, if Obama takes down a combined 98 pledged delegates then pledged delegate checkmate can officially be declared, with the remaining 37 proportional races guaranteed to give Obama at least a minimum 1 vote and thus put him over the top on the minimum viability alone.

Second, I want to see Obama erase Clinton's PA popular vote gain, which would finally drive a stake into that argument.

This diary is a straightforward analysis of what it will take to regain 214,224 votes.

PocketNines

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Friday May 02, 2008 · 12:26 PM PDT

2008/05/02 · 12:26

There is a pattern of thought and commentary that goes like this:

"I like Barack Obama, and think he's a great guy and would make a great president. Unfortunately, there are too many racists in this country to elect Barack Obama."

(or, TV translation): "Barack Obama can't win working class whites."

There is a name for this: Vouching for the Other Guy's Bad Faith. Vouching for the other guy's racism.

PocketNines

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Wednesday April 30, 2008 · 3:01 PM PDT

2008/04/30 · 15:01

This is a short diary to emphasize a point I hope gets made by Chuck Todd and by Obama surrogates on the night of May 6 about pledged delegates.

Though Barack Obama will not be at 1627 to get the majority of pledged delegates and thereby kick in the Pelosi Club (including Sen. Maria Cantwell's flip from Clinton to Obama), he will have clinched it anyway.

Why?

Viability.

PocketNines

Community

Tuesday April 22, 2008 · 10:00 PM PDT

2008/04/22 · 22:00

Dear Obama Surrogate,

You are going to be on cable news shows in the next two weeks, and you are going to be confronted with the notion of the popular vote being a legitimate measuring stick.

I must say that thus far I have been generally very unimpressed with you as a group. You flub around, you let yourself get bullied by giant assholes like Joe Scarborough and you never make super-easy points.

So listen up, I am going to make this easy for you. Do not screw this up. Use the three obvious points, and use concrete examples, which I have helpfully provided for you. If you do not say these three things, you are a total failure as a surrogate.

PocketNines

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Sunday April 13, 2008 · 5:38 PM PDT

2008/04/13 · 17:38

It's always a tiny thing that moves me to tears. The speeches are masterful and I always come away from them thinking what an authentic, decent man this is, and how amazing his mom must have been. But the speeches don't generally get me choked up.

Instead, little things that catch me off guard, and most of the time it's something else someone is saying about him. It's observing his impact on others. One from a couple months ago that really opened me up me was Geoff Stone's short piece the morning after Iowa, when the world seemed fundamentally different. Stone helped bring Obama to the U. Chicago Law School and observed him early on. His thoughts about what Obama should have done with his career are faultlessly common-sensical. His confession is our cultural confession - we have very low expectations of our public servants. (After, all, we don't need to be raising the false hopes of this country about what can be delivered, right?)

PocketNines

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Thursday April 10, 2008 · 9:32 PM PDT

2008/04/10 · 21:32

Like the Blowout Principle is the mathematical undermining of the Slate delegate calculator, the Closed/Open Principle is undermining turnout predictions for the remaining states.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a diary that attempted to predict turnout, but it wasn't a full analysis. I believed it a sounder model than those predicters who were merely throwing spaghetti at the wall, because I tied the turnout to congressional districts and past performance in the 2008 primary cycle, distinguishing between closed and open/semi-open primaries and comparing like to like.

Still, I began seeing different numbers and methods around the web. Over at Open Left, fladem tied predictions of turnout straightforwardly to 2004 GE Kerry performance. PA turnout was pegged at 75% of 2004 Kerry GE turnout, based on an average of 64% of Kerry turnout in primaries and 80% of Kerry turnout in primaries post-Super Tuesday. I wanted to take a closer look because some 2004 GE states were battlegrounds and others were not.

Poll

132 votes Show Results

Predict PA Turnout %age of Registered Dems

132 votes Vote Now!

Predict PA Turnout %age of Registered Dems

under 40%

6 votes

40%

2 votes

41%

1 vote

42%

6 votes

43%

4 votes

44%

2 votes

45%

8 votes

46%

4 votes

47%

12 votes

48%

14 votes

49%

9 votes

50%

10 votes

51%

3 votes

52%

12 votes

more than 52%

39 votes

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RSS

(Updated) Restless Math Syndrome: The Edwards 7 Premise (w/Poll)

All This Punditry, and I Just Have To Laugh

Math and Magic Numbers on West Virginia's Primary Day

Finally: Even With FL/MI Obama Leads in All ELECTED Super Subcategories

My Advice to Fellow Obama Supporters for Unity (Updated)

The North Carolina Democratic Primary: Tracking Results

What Would it Take in NC to Erase Clinton's PA Pop Vote?

Vouching For the Other Guy's Bad Faith

An Important May 6 Delegate Math Point: Viability

Popular Vote: Listen Up, Obama Surrogates (Updated)

I Cried Again About Obama Today

Math: Revised Predictions PA Turnout/Popular Vote Ranges