Another day, another early voting record. I’m going to have to start coming up with better lines, especially if folks keep coming by.
First of all, none of this would be possible without lots of hard work from lots of people. PLEASE click on the links and donate time or money, if you are able. The national party has written us off down here for ages, so what these people have done is remarkable. My hat is off to them.
Battleground Texas
Texas Democratic Party
Hillary for Texas
Drive for Democracy (to drive voters to the polls)
ALL the local Democratic organizations — there are too many to count, or include all of them here. We also have some amazing Kossacks involved: LibbyShaw, txjackalope (who gave me the original idea and push for this series — it wouldn’t be here without you!), txdoubledd (you have added fantastic links), MargaretPOA, ChrisLove and the Houston Kossacks who kept me going, Ken in TX and his fantastic work out in Travis County, tiredntexas for her hard work in Harris County, oldhippiedude, oceanview for the constant (needed) reminders to make the donation and volunteer links more visible (I hope I got it right) and everyone else out there who’s helped me build these diaries, links and worked to make this happen. FaithChatham has a wonderful series on congressional races that could be competitive — with donation links, if you have some spare change to share.
If you’re a TX voter, VOTE! Here is a FAQ list for you...early voting ENDS on Friday, 4 Nov. Vote early! Even voting early, some counties are seeing lines up to an hour or two, depending on when you go. Then, if you have time take others to the polls. Voting and enthusiasm are contagious. There are free rides in Austin, courtesy of League of Women Voters, plus the Metro is doing free rides. The YMCA may offer free childcare on election day. Even the Secretary of State is calling for higher voter turnout: historically, less than HALF of the state’s voting age population has voted.
Now, on to data, analysis and caveats. The Texas Secretary of State office has excellent record-keeping...though the numbers keep getting updated later each day. I’ve included what numbers I have now, and will update as more becomes available. PLEASE be aware that when I update the table, the numbers may change. I'm still working on how to get information out fast and accurately.
*UPDATE: the SoS office updated their site just before 11: all the county information has been changed to match SoS numbers
|
2008 |
2012 |
2016 |
Day 4, top 15 counties by population
Harris (Houston) |
44,235 |
51,240 |
76,329 |
Dallas |
33,090 |
31,033 |
44,438 |
Tarrant (fort worth) |
28,596 |
28,132 |
39,996 |
Bexar (san Antonio) |
29,857 |
30,274 |
39,417 |
Travis (Austin) |
22,879 |
17,494 |
34,227 |
Collin (DFW) |
14,734 |
15,314 |
24,840 |
Denton |
11,703 |
12,273 |
19,449 |
El paso |
8,727 |
8,291 |
14,915 |
ft bend (sw Houston) |
10,190 |
11,459 |
19,210 |
hidalgo (rio grande) |
5,882 |
8,353 |
11,483 |
Montgomery (n Houston) |
6,734 |
9,614 |
12,189 |
Williamson (round rock) |
9,190 |
8,378 |
14,700 |
galveston |
5,551 |
6,410 |
8,793 |
Nueces |
4,552 |
4,668 |
6,075 |
Cameron (Rio grande) |
2,946 |
3,696 |
5,830 |
TOTAl EV today |
238,836 |
246,629 |
371,891 |
Cumulative Ev |
974,445 |
1,126,752 |
1,553,855 |
total votes (ev & mail in) |
1,112,446 |
1,187,790 |
1,781,006 |
What does this mean? It depends. First, turnout is CRAZY high. To give you an idea, the first round of data only includes 6 of the counties: Harris, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, El Paso and Williamson...and it’s already at 218K. As in, 28K short of 2012’s total for ALL 15 counties. Now that we’ve got all the numbers in — it’s even better. Ft Bend County expanded hours to accommodate. Other counties added additional poll workers. In general, when turnout goes up, it supports democrats. If you drive in the way-back machine, Eva Longoria wrote an article saying the sleeping giant of Latino Texans were waking...and TX would go blue in 16.
Do we know this? Nope. Texas doesn’t have party registration, so we don’t have the detailed data in, say, NC or FL. On the other hand, voting demographics show the main areas of improvement are GOING to be those usually-unlikely voters: latinos, minorities, students. All of these are key Democratic constituencies. In 2012, the story is out there: 58% of all registered voters turned out. However, the numbers for latinos were lower: under 40%. If we can turn out the vote, Texas can go blue...and will. Texas is now majority minority: it can happen, especially with how low Trump is polling with all minorities.
Is it due to population growth? Some. From 2010 to 2015, estimated population growth was right at 2 million. We can extrapolate, and say that’s ABOUT the same as the growth between 2012 and now...for lack of my google skills being able to find better numbers. From what few surveys are out there, at least a quarter of the voters are first-time.
What counties are GOP/Dem? Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, El Paso, Cameron, Hidalgo, Nueces are blue. Montgomery, Collin, Williamson and Denton have historically been red. (h/t Permanent Republican Minority for the list) Ft Bend has seen massive growth and become one of the most diverse counties in the state — so not sure where it will go. How much of that is due to demographics, how much is due to ideology, how much is due to who has traditionally voted: hard to say. In addition, most moderate GOP in TX (ok, the Bushes and tons of newspapers) have announced for Clinton, which may start peeling off the suburban GOP vote in favor of Team Blue. There are 254 counties in Texas, and 15 million registered voters. In these 15 counties live 9.7 million of those voters: almost 2/3 of all possible TX voters.
For those who want the whole history…
Day 1 (txjackalope)
Day 2
Day 3
Friday, Oct 28, 2016 · 4:00:56 PM +00:00 · NoBlinkers
Another awesome day around the state! To give you an idea of how crazy the EV results are...in 2012, it wasn’t until Day 6 that they saw these numbers...we’re running 50% better than in 2012 for turnout.
Total early votes in 2012, including mail-in (what my bolded line is tracking): 3,407,479 (of 8.6M RVs). Therefore, our target based on so far should be at LEAST 5.1 million...which would be over HALF of the 9.7M registered voters in the counties.