The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TX-07: It's clear to everyone that GOP Rep. John Culberson is in for the fight of his life … that is, it's clear to everyone not named John Culberson. While Republicans have held this seat for decades, a number of credible Democrats jumped in after it swung from 60-39 Romney all the way to 48.5-47.1 Clinton. But according to the New York Times, Culberson still has not hired a full-time campaign manager. This certainly helps explain how two Democrats, nonprofit executive Alex Triantaphyllis and attorney Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, each had more cash-on-hand than he did at the end of September.
Culberson's supporters are worried he's not taking this race seriously, and his comments at a fundraiser this year did not inspire confidence. The Times writes that Culberson was asked if he was "besieged with angry calls" and "Culberson suggested he was not, a comment that left some attendees flabbergasted, according to a Republican present." We certainly won't complain if Culberson continues to compete for the second biennial John Mica Award for most clueless incumbent.
Senate
● ND-Sen: GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer once appeared to be one of the most likely challengers for Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp, but his chronic episodes of foot-in-mouth disease earlier this year seemed to have dramatically dimmed his prospects with top Republicans. Cramer is still publicly considering the race, but he is in utterly no hurry to decide. Cramer formed a joint fundraising committee with the NRCC in late November, which seemed to imply that a Senate campaign was unlikely since he was fundraising with the House GOP.
Campaign Action
However, the Washington Post recently reported that Donald Trump himself now wants Cramer to join the Senate race and is expected to start meeting with the congressman regularly. Cramer was an early Trump backer for the Republican nomination in 2016, and if there's one thing we know about Trump, it's that he remembers who supported or opposed him on the right side of the aisle. However, Cramer's procrastination has only allowed another rival, wealthy state Sen. Tom Campbell, to monopolize the Republican primary so far, and Campbell has already begun airing ads to introduce himself to GOP voters. Although Cramer may be convinced he can wait until late in the cycle, he may find that his dallying only opened the door to a tough primary campaign and decide to stay out.
● UT-Sen: Throughout 2017, longtime Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch has refused to clarify whether he will run for an eighth term next November and has maintained simply that he "plans" to do so. However, Hatch said in a recent interview that he will make his decision in the new year, yet he once more asserted that he's "leaning in favor of running" but his wife doesn't want him to.
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov: Former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich has been openly toying with the idea of running for governor in 2018 for quite some time, but it's hard to tell just how seriously he's entertaining it with Democratic-aligned independent Gov. Bill Walker seeking re-election. The conservative blog Must Read Alaska reports that some key groups a Democrat would likely need as allies if they were to run are instead supporting Walker, which could be a sign that major players in the state don't actually think Begich will join the race.
These supporters include the head of the state chapter of the AFL-CIO, the leader of the state firefighters' union, and others who have participated in Walker fundraisers. Alaska has an unusually high number of pro-labor Republicans, so the idea of unions backing a non-Democrat isn't that unusual. However, the support of these types of organizations is critical for a non-Republican to win in such a red state. So long as Begich does indeed stay out of the race, Walker stands a good chance of consolidating support from Democrats on the unity ticket with Democratic Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott, just like his successful 2014 campaign. But it remains to be seen whether he can defeat the eventual Republican nominee next year.
● CT-Gov: Oz Griebel recently resigned as a leader of the Hartford metro area's local chamber of commerce, and he is considering joining the crowded Republican primary for governor, with an announcement reportedly expected in a matter of days. Griebel ran for governor when the office was last open in 2010, but he took a distant last place in the three-way GOP primary with just 19 percent. However, he appears to have extensive ties to the business world and is reportedly well-known in political circles, which could mean he may have what it takes to run a strong race.
● FL-Gov: November monthly fundraising numbers are now available in Florida's gubernatorial contest, and they continue to serve as a powerful indicator of where this race stands. First off, the Democratic field:
Philip Levine (D): $786,000 raised, $5.5 million cash-on-hand
Gwen Graham (D): $353,000 raised, $2.8 million cash-on-hand
Chris King (D): $99,000 raised, $1.7 million cash-on-hand
Andrew Gillum (D): $52,000 raised, $483,000 cash-on-hand
Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine was the last candidate to join the field, but has major connections in the world of Florida Democratic fundraising, while he's also tremendously wealthy and willing to self-fund. Unsurprisingly, that leaves him with slightly more cash on hand than the other three candidates combined. However, former Rep. Gwen Graham continues to raise a decent amount of money, but Florida is still an extremely expensive state where even several hundred thousand only goes so far. Lastly, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum's fundraising continues to show a campaign that is on life support, while businessman Chris King's seven-figure war chest is largely the result of some early self-funding.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side of the aisle:
Adam Putnam (R): $972,000 raised, $15.35 million cash-on-hand
Richard Corcoran (R): $754,000 raised, $4.7 million cash-on-hand
Ron DeSantis (R): $388,000 raised, $2 million cash-on-hand
Jack Latvala (R): $36,000 raised, $4.8 million cash-on-hand
State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam had been informally running and fundraising for years before he finally joined the race officially earlier this cycle, and he unsurprisingly continues to dominate the rest of the field in fundraising. But while state House Speaker Richard Corcoran has said that he won’t decide on a bid until the 2018 legislative session ends in March, he’s been vigorously fundraising for months.
Meanwhile, state Sen. Jack Latvala's previously well-funded campaign imploded along with his political career in early November after several women accused him of sexual harassment and inappropriately touching them. Latvala had built a powerful fundraising apparatus as chair of the state Senate's appropriations committee, but donors understandably want nothing to do with him in light of the scandal. Latvala maintains that he isn't dropping out or resigning, but he'll likely struggle to continue campaigning if he can't raise serious funds. Finally, Rep. Ron DeSantis also hasn't officially launched a campaign yet but looks increasingly likely to join the fray after he has stockpiled a couple million he can use for this race.
Florida's primary isn't until late in the cycle on Aug. 28 (you can find the dates for every state in our 2018 primary calendar), so we're likely still a while away from seeing the candidates begin making major statewide ad buys. However, the Sunshine State's immense size and several media markets make it especially expensive for campaigns, and fundraising numbers are thus far one of the best indicators we have of whether a particular candidate will have the resources they need to effectively get their message out.
House
● CA-39: Navy veteran Gil Cisneros, who is one of several challengers running to take on GOP Rep. Ed Royce, has released a new poll from Tulchin Research that shows the incumbent up just 48-44. In addition, Democrats lead a generic House matchup 45-37 in this competitive Southern California seat, while Donald Trump sports a painful 41-56 favorability rating, similar to his national average.
There is, however, no data on the June primary, which features at least five different notable Democrats and a whole lot of money. Cisneros is famous for winning $266 million in a lottery drawing in 2010, after which he founded a new charity focusing on supporting educational opportunities for Latino students and endowed it with $20 million. He's also used some of his fortune on his own campaign, self-funding $550,000 in the third quarter of the year. But that's just a fraction of the $2 million that businessman Andy Thorburn put into his own effort, and pediatrician Mai Khanh Tran has chipped in $200,000 for her bid as well. Also running are education consultant Phil Janowicz and former Commerce Department official Sam Jammal, though they haven't self-funded to a notable degree.
Cisneros stands out for attracting the endorsements of a handful of members of Congress from California's delegation, but there's still no way to know who, if anyone, has an inside track on making it through the primary. The only thing we can say for sure is that it will be expensive.
● CO-02: Gun safety activist Ken Toltz has announced that he's suspending his Democratic primary bid because of a "serious health situation in my immediate family." It doesn't sound like Toltz is leaving the door open to getting back in, since he continues, "Mounting a competitive campaign to represent Colorado's 2nd Congressional District is full-time in itself, and now is not the time for me." A few other Democrats are seeking this open 56-35 Clinton seat in the Boulder area, and former Department of Regulatory Agencies head Joe Neguse looks like the clear frontrunner with Toltz out.
● HI-01: State politicos have buzzed for months that Attorney General Doug Chin would seek the Democratic nomination for this open seat, and he announced on Monday he was in. While Hawaii’s attorney general is appointed by the governor rather than elected by voters, Chin he has made plenty of headlines over the last year by suing the Trump administration.
Notably, Chin filed a lawsuit against a version of the travel ban aimed at predominantly Muslim countries in March that led a local federal judge to issue a ruling halting its enforcement nationwide. In response, U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions infamously said that he was "amazed that a judge sitting on an island in the Pacific can issue an order that stops the President of the United States from what appears to be clearly his statutory and Constitutional power." Chin and other state politicians were none too happy with Sessions' label for Hawaii.
Several Democrats are competing to succeed Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who is leaving to run for governor, in a 63-31 Clinton seat that includes much of Honolulu. Ernie Martin, a Honolulu city councilor, recently also announced he was in. State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim, a more conservative Democrat who lost 44-28 in the 2014 open seat primary against the late Mark Takei, and state Rep. Kaniela Ing are also running. This seat will likely remain blue, though ex-GOP Rep. Charles Djou, who narrowly lost a bid for this seat in 2014 and for mayor of Honolulu in 2016, is not ruling out another campaign.
● IL-04: Cook County Commissioner Chuy Garcia looked like the instant frontrunner when he jumped into the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Luis Gutierrez, and now he's out with a new poll confirming he's in the pole position. Garcia's survey, conducted by PPP, finds him starting with a massive 53 percent of the vote while his nearest opponent, Chicago Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa, takes just 7 percent. Four other candidates languish in the low single digits, including nonprofit director Sol Flores, who is the only woman in the race and nets just 3 percent.
Even in a more narrowly defined field, Garcia is still dominant. In a three-way matchup, Garcia takes 56 while Ramirez-Rosa is at just 13 and Flores 5, while in a one-on-one with Flores, Garcia leads 63-11. In 2015, when Garcia ran for mayor of Chicago, he did extremely well in portions of the 4th that lie within city limits despite losing the race, so it's no surprise that he begins the race with far higher name recognition than his rivals. Garcia also has Gutierrez's endorsement, and according to PPP, fully 59 percent of primary voters say the outgoing congressman's support makes them more likely to back Garcia. With the Illinois primary fast approaching on March 20, it'll be hard for any other contenders to stop Garcia.
● IN-06: GOP state Sen. Mike Crider announced he was dropping out of the primary for this safely red open seat on Monday, citing the high cost of running for Congress. Businessman Greg Pence, who is the older brother of Mike Pence, and a few other Republicans are running for this eastern Indiana seats and well … let's just say that Pence won't have to worry much about fundraising.
● KY-06: Yipes. After the DCCC recruited Lexington Mayor Jim Gray to run in Kentucky's 6th District, Marine veteran Amy McGrath tells the New York Times that she was so angry that she considered an independent bid before ultimately deciding to "continue within the Democratic Party" and remain in the primary. We can understand why McGrath is frustrated about Gray, particularly since her campaign got off to a strong start long before he entered the contest. But a third-party run would have been catastrophic for Democrats' chances against GOP Rep. Andy Barr in what is already a very difficult district, and telling folks you thought about torching the whole race is probably not going to endear you to Democratic primary voters.
● MN-07: On Monday, state Rep. Tim Miller announced he was dropping out of the GOP primary to take on longtime Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson and running for re-election instead. Peterson's rural northwestern Minnesota seat went from a tough 54-44 Romney to a brutal 62-31 Trump, but Republicans haven't shown a whole lot of vigor against him this cycle. Miller himself had just $31,000 in the bank at the end of September, so it's not a huge surprise he's decided to call it quits.
Last cycle, Peterson was held to a 52-47 win against Some Dude David Hughes, and Hughes is hoping he can finish the job the second time. However, Hughes has once again raised very little, and the political climate isn't exactly shaping up to be as strong for Team Red this time. Minnesota's filing deadline isn't until June, so Team Red does have time to find a stronger candidate.
● NV-04: Now that Democratic Rep. Ruben Kihuen isn't running for a second term next year due to a sexual harassment scandal, the Democratic field to replace him is slowly beginning to take shape. This seat, which includes Las Vegas’ northern suburbs, went from 54-44 Obama to a smaller 50-45 Clinton, and while Democrats should be favored to hold it, it’s by no means a slam dunk.
There’s been plenty of chatter that ex-Rep. Steven Horsford, who narrowly lost this seat in the 2014 GOP wave to Republican Cresent Hardy, could run again. Veteran Nevada politics reporter Jon Ralston wrote at the beginning of the month right after news of Kihuen’s scandal first broke that Horsford was considering a comeback bid, but Ralston now writes that the former congressman "has had a health issue, and he does not want to lose twice in a row." That doesn’t mean he won’t run, and there's still been no word from Horsford himself. However, Ralston also suggests that, while some top Democrats might step aside for Horsford, there are other prominent ones who may not. Some Democrats may also prefer to have a woman running here given the circumstances of Kihuen’s fall.
One of the Democrats who may end up running is state Sen. Pat Spearman, who says she is "strongly leaning toward running." Spearman first won her state Senate in 2012 by ousting conservative incumbent John Lee as a progressive primary challenger. Like Horsford, she is black, while Spearman is also a lesbian, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a Christian minister. That profile could help Spearman earn the support of major progressive organizations that promote more diverse candidates in Congress. Spearman’s North Las Vegas seat is also entirely located within the 4th District. While it’s quite common for Las Vegas-area politicians to hop between the area’s congressional districts depending on the circumstances (then-state Sen. Kihuen didn’t represent a shred of the 4th District in the legislature when he was elected last year), it at least can’t hurt to have a candidate with a local base of support.
State Sen. Yvanna Cancela is another Democrat who had previously been mentionedas a potential candidate, though she has yet to say anything about her interest publicly. Cancela was appointed to succeed Kihuen in the state Senate, and she’s never run for office before. But Cancela used to be the political director of the powerful Culinary Workers Union, so she very connected in the world of Nevada Democratic politics. Cancela also made history last year when she became the chamber’s first Latina member.
However, Ralston wrote earlier this month that Cancela has a full time job and is in law school, which could deter her from running. Her state Senate seat, which doesn’t overlap at all with the 4th, is also up next year, so she’d need to give it up to run here. Ralston also writes that a primary between the Cancela and Spearman could end up being a fraught affair that alienates key Democratic-aligned groups. However, that is by no means destined to happen.
Roll Call has also mentioned several other candidates as possibilities, though no one has said anything publicly. They name-drop John Lee, who was elected mayor of North Las Vegas after he lost his seat to Spearman, though his conservative positions on key issues like reproductive rights should rightly make him anathema to Democratic primary voters and progressive groups.
Finally, another Roll Call report from earlier in December mentioned Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani and former Las Vegas City Councilman Steve Ross as two other Democrats whom unnamed insiders had deemed potential candidates, although neither has said anything publicly. Giunchigliani is currently running for governor in the Democratic primary against fellow Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak, who chairs the commission. However, Sisolak likely starts with an advantage thanks to his huge campaign war chest and the support of Rep. Dina Titus and former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who remains a powerful force in state Democratic politics. Giunchigliani may be tempted to run for the House instead, but Roll Call says unnamed operatives doubt she will.
On the GOP side, Las Vegas City Councilor Stavros Anthony has been running for Team Red for a few months. But while Hardy said over the summer that he wouldn’t run for the seat he lost to Kihuen 49-45 last year, he began reconsidering this month. Hardy said that, while he’s still supporting Anthony, he was thinking about jumping in anyway. Nevertheless, Hardy has not said anything publicly since Kihuen announced he was leaving.
● OH-01: Way back in May, Cincinnati City Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld did not deny that the DCCC was talking to him about a potential bid against GOP Rep. Steve Chabot, but he'd shown no interest since then. However, the New York Times reports that the DCCC is still trying to recruit Sittenfeld, and he's not saying no. Sittenfeld told the paper that the race for this 51-45 Trump seat "has all the trappings of a winnable seat if the climate cooperates."
Sittenfeld entered the Democratic primary to take on GOP Sen. Rob Portman last cycle, and he stayed in even after ex-Gov. Ted Strickland jumped in with the full support of the party establishment. Sittenfeld relentlessly argued that Strickland's evolution away from his once pro-NRA views was insincere, and he made more than a few not-so-subtle jabs at Strickland's age (74). Sittenfeld's once-promising fundraising largely dried up after Strickland entered the race, and he lost the primary 65-22. But Strickland ended up badly losing to Portman, and some Ohio Democrats reportedly believe Sittenfeld would have done better if he were the nominee.
If Sittenfeld challenges Chabot, he once again won't have a clear path through the primary. Rabbi Robert Barr has been running since October, and his first fundraising reports (due at the end of January) will give us a good indication if he's running a credible campaign. State Rep. Alicia Reece has been talking about running for most of the year, and she recently told the Cincinnati Enquirer she's still considering. However, Reece sounded far more excited about possibility leading the Cincinnati USA Convention & Visitors Bureau. The filing deadline is Feb. 7, so potential candidates don't have too much time to decide.
● PA-07: On Monday, following accusations that he'd sexually harassed multiple women—backed up by almost a dozen witnesses coming forward to report similar behavior—Democratic state Sen. Daylin Leach announced he was "taking a step back" from his campaign against GOP Rep. Pat Meehan. Leach didn't say whether he was suspending or dropping his bid, but his attorney says "it doesn't mean he's quitting the race," adding that Leach "just wants to pause and reflect."
But Leach wouldn't be very welcome back. Immediately after the Philadelphia Inquirer reported on the allegations, Leach not only denied everything but also sought to impugn his accusers. Of one former staffer who spoke out, Aubrey Montgomery, Leach complained that "when the humor was flying, she was at least as racy as anyone else." That, unfortunately, was just the start.
Leach was utterly savage to another woman, Colleen Kennedy, who posted a pain-wracked essay about her experiences working for Leach in which she repeatedly called him a personal hero but said she felt she had to come forward because he'd "done things that have hurt other women I have cared about." In a since-deleted Facebook comment, Leach wrote:
"Nobody is blocking you Colleen. But you are a truly horrific monster. You fabricate insane attacks and laughable lies agains [sic] someone who was never anything but nice to you. To hell with what you do to my family, kids, the progressive movement, etc. I hope whatever it is that makes you such an unhappy person gets resolved. in a world where making progress is so freakin hard, you are just a human wrecking ball of hate."
Someone definitely needs to pause and reflect here.
● PA-08: This suburban Philadelphia seat has been an elusive target for Democrats for years, but Team Blue hopes that a strong political climate will be too much for GOP freshman Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in a district that both Romney and Trump only narrowly carried. The New York Times reports that Democrat Scott Wallace, a lawyer and philanthropist who co-chairs the investment fund the Wallace Global Fund, is considering entering the race, though Wallace has not said anything publicly yet.
Wallace is a grandson of Henry Wallace, who was Franklin Roosevelt's second vice president and ran for president in 1948 under the banner of the left-wing Progressive Party. The Philadelphia Inquirer writes that the Wallace Global Fund, which is named in honor of Henry Wallace, has listed net assets of $170 million and "finances efforts to reduce the role of money in politics and reverse global warming, among other causes."
The younger Wallace made the news in the spring when his fund fired its law firm, Morgan Lewis, which just so happens to also count Donald Trump and the Trump Organization among its clients. Wallace wrote a letter detailing his disgust over the specific legal advice Morgan Lewis gave to Trump regarding his disentanglement—or more accurately, lack thereof—from his business interests, including the much-mocked "few exceptions" letter, saying it "encourages impeachable offenses" and offers "an unprecedented invitation to corruption and an assault on our democracy." If Wallace runs, he'll face Navy veteran and JAG attorney Rachel Reddick in the primary, though it still remains to be seen if she has the connections to run a strong race in a very expensive contest.
● TN-07: On Monday, country songwriter Lee Thomas Miller announced he was dropping out of the GOP primary for this safely red seat. Miller, who entered the race a month ago, said he believed the race "would require me to compromise far more of myself than I would ever be willing." The only other noteworthy Republican competing for this open Middle Tennessee district is state Sen. Mark Green, whose long history of Islamophobia and transphobia helped torpedo his nomination for secretary of the Army, but probably won't be a liability with GOP primary voters.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Our crazy year of special elections comes to an end on Tuesday. Johnny Longtorso gives us the lowdown:
Florida HD-58: This is an open Republican seat northeast of Tampa. The Democratic candidate is Jose Vazquez Figueroa, a former campaign manager for the New Progressive Party in Puerto Rico who has run for this seat several times before; last year, he lost 58.5-41.5. The Republican nominee is Lawrence McClure, a business owner. Also on the ballot are Libertarian Bryan Zemina and independent Ahmad Hussam Saadaldin. This seat went 53-43 for Donald Trump in 2016 and 52-47 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
Tennessee SD-17: A few months ago, anti-pornography crusader Mae Beavers resigned from this suburban Nashville seat to concentrate on her bid for the GOP nomination for governor. The Democratic nominee is Mary Alice Carfi, an attorney. The Republican nominee is state Rep. Mark Pody. This seat went 72-24 for Donald Trump in 2016 and 69-29 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
