Thanks to Pennsylvania's brand-spanking-new congressional map, the Keystone State's political scene has just undergone a total reset. To help make sense of the new state of play, we've put together this walk-through of every new seat—and note that the map has been almost entirely renumbered. You can find a collection of helpful resources we’ve put together here. The preliminary 2016 presidential results by district come from political scientist Brian Amos, while estimates of the 2012 presidential results by district from the New York Times' Nate Cohn.
The candidate filing deadline for House races is March 20. Because candidates need to collect petitions to make the ballot, however, they’ll need to decide where, or if, to run for the House a lot sooner than that. The primary will be May 15.
● PA-01: Ironically, we start our tour in the seat that changed the least from redistricting. This new seat, which includes all of Bucks County in suburban Philadelphia and a small portion of nearby Montgomery, includes 93 percent of GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's old 8th District. This seat did go from a very narrow 48.2-48.0 Trump to 49.1-47.1 Clinton, a small improvement for Team Blue that could make all the difference in a tight race.
Last cycle, Fitzpatrick won an expensive general election 54-46 to succeed retiring Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, who just happened to be his brother. Fitzpatrick ended the year with a strong $1.1 million in the bank, and while a few Republicans announced that they would challenge him in the primary, none of them look like they have the resources to give him a tough fight.
It took much of the cycle, but Democrats have a few candidates. Navy veteran and JAG attorney Rachel Reddick entered the race in the fall, and she raised $144,000 during her first quarter in the race, and ended December with $80,000 in the bank. Scott Wallace, a wealthy lawyer and philanthropist who co-chairs the investment fund the Wallace Global Fund, jumped in last month, as did environmentalist Steve Bacher.
● PA-02: Two-term Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle's old 13th District was almost cut cleanly in two, with half going to this new North Philadelphia seat and 43 percent going to the new 4th District in Montgomery County. The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed people "familiar with" Boyle's plans, say he'll run in the 2nd, which backed Clinton 73-25. Boyle hails from Philadelphia and he won his 2014 primary with the help of many influential city ward leaders and unions, so it would be a big surprise if he didn't run for the Philly seat.
It's possible that Boyle could face a primary challenge from one or more of the Democrats who were planning to run to succeed retiring Rep. Bob Brady, whose old seat was taken apart by the new map. However, Boyle ended 2017 with a $765,000 war chest, so any would-be opponents aren't exactly catching him off-guard.
● PA-03: Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans already represents about 80 percent of this new and safely blue Philadelphia seat, so there's little question he'll run here. However, Evans had just $103,000 in his war chest at the end of December, so it's possible that at least one other Democrat (perhaps someone who planned to run for retiring Rep. Bob Brady's old seat) will decide to challenge the freshman before he can become entrenched. But Evans has some powerful friends: The longtime state legislator was a key supporter of Gov. Tom Wolf and Mayor Jim Kenney during their 2014 and 2015 primary campaigns, and they backed him during his 2016 bid against scandal-tarred Rep. Chaka Fattah.
● PA-04: Unless Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle surprises us and runs here instead of in the new 2nd District, this will be an open seat. The old map split Montgomery County into five different districts, but all of the House members representing it lived elsewhere. The new map puts about 86 percent of MontCo (as it's often known) in this Clinton 59-39 district, and a Montgomery County Democrat will almost certainly represent it come 2019. There are plenty of potential candidates, and we’ll need to wait a little bit for this new race to take shape.
● PA-05: The old GOP-drawn map did everything it could to protect GOP Rep. Pat Meehan, and his gerrymandered seat was likened to Goofy kicking Donald Duck. However, the once-formidable Meehan announced he would retire in the wake of a sexual harassment scandal, and redistricting completely changed up what was a 49-47 Clinton seat. The new district includes all of Delaware County as well as small portions of Philadelphia and Montgomery, and this seat backed Clinton 63-34. While several Republicans considered running to replace Meehan before Monday, it's unlikely many of them will stick around now.
We could have quite a large Democratic field here, however. Rich Lazer, who is close to Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney and to local labor groups, has been eyeing a bid for retiring Rep. Bob Brady's old 1st District, and he resigned as a Philadelphia deputy mayor ahead of his expected campaign launch. However, Lazer seems ready to run in this seat even though his Philadelphia base only makes up about 16 percent of the population, and he put out a statement Monday evening declaring, "The people in the newly drawn district are the same hard-working people I grew up with, who want better lives for themselves and their children." The Philadelphia Inquirer writes that the well-funded Electricians union is "expected" to back him.
A few other candidates who were running for Brady's seat are also considering their options. The Democrats who were running for Meehan's seat will be on more familiar territory, though they'll also need to decide what to do.
● PA-06: GOP Rep. Ryan Costello got to keep about half of his seat (as well as his old district number), but he's in a lot more trouble than he was a week ago. While Costello's old seat backed Clinton just 48.2-47.6, the new suburban Philadelphia district supported her 53-43. Costello already was facing a credible Democratic foe in businesswoman and Air Force officer Chrissy Houlahan, and her prospects have certainly gotten better.
Still, Costello isn't doomed. The new seat, which now includes all of Costello's Chester County base and part of Berks, backed Obama by a smaller 51-48 margin in 2012, and Brian Amos has GOP Sen. Pat Toomey narrowly winning it in the 2016 Senate race. Voters here have also continued to back Republicans down the ballot while voting for Democratic presidential candidates, though Trump may have already done local Republicans some real damage. But there's no doubt that Costello is in danger, and that he's become one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country overnight.
● PA-07: Entrenched GOP Rep. Charlie Dent announced last year that he would retire, but Democrats still were in for a tough race in a seat that had backed Trump 52-44. However, the new version of this Lehigh Valley seat backed Clinton 49-48, and while it's no slam-dunk, Team Blue is pretty happy with how things turned out.
However, while the new map will give Democrats a better chance, it will likely help one conservative candidate win Team Blue's nomination. Northampton County, where John Morganelli has served as district attorney for decades, made up just 22 percent of Dent's old seat, but it takes up a full 42 percent of the new district's population, a development he's very happy about. As we've written before, Morganelli gave GOP Sen. Pat Toomey some useful help during the tight 2016 Senate race, and he's praised Trump multiple times.
Thankfully, Democrats do have some alternatives. Former Allentown Solicitor Susan Wild and pastor Greg Edwards both declared they'd run for the new 7th. It's also possible other Democrats will show more interest in this seat, though that could help Morganelli. Several Republicans were running here, but redistricting threw some of them into other seats, and we'll need to wait for the dust to clear before assessing the field.
● PA-08: Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright was already running in a seat that swung from 55-43 Obama to 53-43 Trump, and his new Scranton-area district isn't much different in that respect. Cartwright only represents about half of the new 8th, with him losing the old coal-mining regions around Schuylkill County while picking up more voters in the state's northeast corner. The new seat went from 55-44 Obama to 53-44 Trump, so on paper, his situation may not be much better or worse than it was last week.
However, it’s possible that redistricting may give Cartwright a tougher opponent. Cartwright was facing John Chrin, a former JP Morgan managing director who still lived in the very affluent community of Short Hills in New Jersey when he launched his campaign. Chrin has been mainly self-funding his bid and he had a hefty $915,000 on-hand at the end of December, but he didn't look like a good fit for this area. We’ll see if other Republicans decide to take a look at this contest now that the map has changed.
● PA-09: This seat, which includes the coal country northwest of the Philadelphia area, backed Trump 65-31, and the GOP nominee should have little trouble winning it. But at this point, that's all we really know about this race. Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright represents 28 percent of the seat, which is more than any other congressman, but he's not going to run for a district this red. Most of the rest of the seat is represented by Republicans who have already announced they're retiring, so it doesn't look like there will be an incumbent here.
● PA-10: GOP Rep. Scott Perry went from holding a seat that backed Trump 59-37 to one that supported him 52-43. This is still very red turf, but for the first time in his congressional career, Perry may actually need to worry about a Democratic opponent. Perry, who is a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, doesn't exactly seem to be up for a competitive general election, though. Last month, Perry went on Fox and speculated, without the slightest bit of evidence, that the October Las Vegas massacre may have been carried out by ISIS, and suggested evidence supporting his claims were being covered up. Perry also ended December with just $374,000 on-hand, not a strong war chest by any means.
Democrats wasted no time looking for a candidate in this seat, which is centered around Harrisburg and includes York, and they already have someone in mind. State Auditor Eugene DePasquale said on Tuesday that he was considering and would decide on Monday. According to Amos, DePasquale narrowly carried this seat during his 2016 re-election campaign.
● PA-11: GOP Rep. Lloyd Smucker may have been in for a competitive re-election campaign in his old 51-44 Trump seat, but he's the rare Republican who benefited from the new map. Smucker's new 11th District, which includes all of Lancaster County and part of York, backed Trump 61-35, and it's probably too heavy a lift for Team Blue even in a good year.
There's one other historically oddity we want to note before we move on here. As we wrote in November, no Democrat has ever won a House seat based in Lancaster County, the only district in the country where that still holds true. The seat returned a member of the "Jacksonian" Party in 1830, before there was a Democratic Party in Pennsylvania, and it went for the Anti-Masonic Party in 1832. After a stint with the Whigs that began in 1840, the fledgling Republican Party won the Lancaster-based seat in 1856, and it's been in their hands ever since. That streak is now likely to continue for a long time to come.
● PA-12: GOP Rep. Tom Marino still has a safely red seat in rural northeastern Pennsylvania, and about two thirds of his old district is in the new 12th. Marino was facing a primary challenge from Bradford County Commissioner Doug McLinko before, but McLinko ended December with just $36,000 in the bank. All of Bradford is still in Marino's seat, but it doesn't look like he has any more to worry about now than he did last week.
● PA-13: This rural seat, which includes the Altoona area and much of the state's border with Maryland, remains as red as ever at 71-26 Trump. However, only about half of the district remains the same, and several Republicans running to succeed retiring Rep. Bill Shuster may find themselves in a new district.
● PA-14: This new seat includes rural areas around Pittsburgh and backed Trump 63-34, and it's almost certain to have a GOP representative in the next Congress. However, things get a whole lot more complicated after that.
About 57 percent of this seat is in the old 18th District, which just happens to have a competitive special election next month between GOP state Rep. Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor Lamb, a former federal prosecutor. If Saccone wins that race without much trouble, it makes perfect sense for him to just turn around and run here. However, if Lamb prevails, it's much more likely that the Democrat would seek the new and considerably more competitive 17th District, which would leave this seat open. And if Saccone only narrowly wins the special election, other Republicans may decide he's vulnerable in the May primary for the 14th just two months later.
To make things more complicated, the special is on March 13, just a week before the candidate deadline. This is a messy situation that may not get resolved for a long time.
● PA-15: GOP Rep. Glenn Thompson represents just under 60 percent of this new, but still very red, rural seat in the northwestern part of the state. Thompson has never faced a competitive primary since he won his first election in 2008 with just 19 percent of the vote, and he's probably safe again.
● PA-16: GOP Rep. Mike Kelly's new 16th District starts from Erie and moves south to the Pittsburgh area. The new seat backed Trump 58-38, not that much better than his 61-35 margin in the old district. Romney did only carry this seat 52-47, so it could be competitive under the right circumstances, but Democrats would need to work fast to find a credible candidate.
● PA-17: Redistricting moved GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus's suburban Pittsburgh seat quite a bit from the left; while Trump carried his old district 59-38, he won the new seat just 49-47, which is actually smaller than Romney's 52-47 showing here.
Rothfus hasn't faced a competitive general election in a while, but he didn't fare especially well when he did. Rothfus challenged Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire during the 2010 GOP wave in a seat that McCain had carried 55-45, but he lost 51-49. Rothfus did unseat Democratic Rep. Mark Critz 52-48 two years later, though he ran well behind Romney's 58-41 showing. But unlike so many other Pennsylvania House members who may suddenly need to worry about re-election, Rothfus actually has taken the time to build up a war chest for an emergency. At the end of December, Rothfus had $1.2 million in the bank.
It remains to be seen what Democrat runs here. But as we noted in discussing PA-14, if Democrat Conor Lamb prevails in next month's special election for the old 18th District, it would make sense for him to campaign here in November. And if Lamb falls short but still continues to impress Democrats, he'll probably be urged to go after Rothfus. Awkwardly though, the candidate filing deadline is one week after Lamb's special election.
● PA-18: Longtime Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle looks as safe as he did before redistricting. Doyle's new seat remains based around the city of Pittsburgh, and it's unlikely to go anywhere at 62-35 Clinton. There were no serious primary challengers on the horizon before, and there are unlikely to be any now.
We’ll have plenty more coverage in the weeks and months ahead, so be sure to check us out at Daily Kos Elections, and subscribe to our free newsletter, the Morning Digest.
