The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● PA-06: Well, this would just be absolutely thermonuclear for the GOP: Rep. Ryan Costello, who has whined the loudest about Pennsylvania's new congressional map, is reportedly considering retirement—less than a week before the candidate filing deadline. Costello himself has refused to answer queries, saying only that he's still circulating petitions to get on the ballot, and amazingly, even the chair of the state Republican Party admitted on the record he doesn't know what Costello's intentions are.
Campaign Action
Needless to say, if Costello bails, that would screw the GOP something fierce. Even if they could find a replacement (party leaders have reportedly already been turned down by one prospect), the redrawn 6th District—which went from just barely favoring Hillary Clinton to voting for her by a much wider 53-43—would be much harder to hold without the two-term Costello, who currently represents half the seat and has a hefty $1.4 million war-chest. Democrats, meanwhile, have a strong recruit in Air Force veteran Chrissy Houlahan, who's stockpiled almost $1 million herself and just earned an endorsement from Joe Biden on Thursday.
Given how close we are to the deadline, and how difficult it would be for any alternative candidate to gather the necessary 1,000 signatures, what we might see is Costello file to run again, then bail later. That would allow local Republicans to pick a substitute, something they did in 2004 when then-Rep. Jim Greenwood retired after winning the GOP primary in what was then the 8th District. But even if Costello decides to stick with it, his obvious reluctance to seek a third term would only serve to dismay his supporters and cause donors to question whether he's worthy of further investment. That's exactly the wrong kind of posture a Republican in a suburban swing district wants to strike in a political environment like this one.
Senate
● IN-Sen: Republicans have an expensive and nasty three-way May 8 primary to take on Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly, and each candidate has one potentially big flaw: Wealthy businessman Mike Braun may not be a real Republican, Rep. Luke Messer may not be a real Hoosier, and Rep. Todd Rokita may be a real jerk.
We'll start with Rokita. The congressman made news earlier this month when he announced he would be skipping the April 30 debate sponsored by the Indiana Debate Commission (aka no, not that IDC) on PBS, making him the first candidate for Senate or governor in the debate's 10 year existence to duck the event. Rokita took issue with moderator Abdul Hakim-Shabazz, whom he called a "patsy" of the IDC and declared was a "never-Trumper. He was begging Kasich to primary Donald Trump. Part of what this primary is about is determining who is going to be [Trump's] best ally."
Rokita is hoping that picking a fight with the media will help him stake out his claim as the most Trumpesque candidate, but he may have gone too far. Local political tip-sheet Howey Politics writes that not one of the Republicans they've spoken to outside the Rokita camp thinks this is a good idea. Brian Howey also argued that if Rokita misses the event "that will be a multiple news-cycle story line." Howey in turn predicted that Rokita may indeed come to the debate after all if polls show a close race. Rokita himself seemed to back down a bit this week when he said that the PBS debate's "ratings are going to be so terrible as it is, maybe I will go spice it up."
This isn't the first time Rokita has drawn some headlines while sounding like a bit of a jerk. In August, Politico published a detailed memo from Rokita's office describing how he was to be chauffeured around his district. The whole thing was a bit embarrassing, and it contained incredibly detailed instructions about how to keep Rokita away from talking to too many reporters, what items to bring for him (he really likes gum and hand sanitizer), and how to drive.
It's unclear if any of this is having an effect with voters, but in a primary where the candidates are all expressing pretty much the same ideas, it could be bad if his fellow Republicans decide he's a jerk. And Rokita, who seems to have watched Trump's 2016 primary campaign closely, doesn't seem to care about making himself likable. While most candidates use their opening commercials to talk about their business success or showcase their adoring family, Rokita's first spot declared that "liberal elites" are the ones who "riot in our streets and attack our police."
Messer will be at the IDC debate, and his team put out a statement arguing that his rival is only ducking the event because he's so gaffe-prone. However, Messer has some different issues. Back in November, news broke that Messer co-owns his Indiana residence with his mother while his family now lives in the D.C. area. Messer recently went up with his second TV commercial, and it seems to be an attempt to stress his connections to Indiana without actually bringing up the attacks against him.
The spot, which Roll Call says will air at the start of the NCAA's men's basketball tournament, features the candidate on a basketball court and speaking to the camera as boys each take a ball from him. Messer tells the audience that he's "lucky enough to coach my son's undefeated team," as his son urges him not to jinx it. Messer uses that to transition to how he understands teamwork, and will support Trump. Roll Call says this spot is "backed by a cable and broadcast TV and digital buy in the mid six-figures." Messer's first commercial featured his daughters praising him as an ardent conservative, which is a very different media strategy than Rokita's dystopian opening ad.
Braun has been advertising for months, and he's largely played up his business background and conservative views. However, he attracted some unfavorable news coverage of his own in December when the Associated Press reported that he'd consistently voted in the Democratic primary until 2012. Indiana has no party registration, but his voting habits got him classified as a "Hard Democrat" in the Republican National Committee's voter database.
Braun, who was elected to the state House as a Republican in 2014, denies he was ever a Democrat, and his campaign insists he was only voting in their primary because he lived in a blue county and wanted to vote for the most conservative Democrat. That didn't appease Rokita, who sarcastically welcomed him to the party at a February debate (an event that apparently met Rokita's standards for attendance).
Polling has been scare here, but Howey writes that "internal polling by two of the campaigns finds the trio of candidates tightly clustered." Messer and Rokita have a long and personal rivalry dating back years, and if they attack one another while leaving Braun alone, the businessman could win in two months. However, that's a whole lot less likely to happen if they're convinced that Braun is also a threat who needs to be attacked. Donnelly at least will be hoping that his eventual rival takes more than a few wounds that don't heal before November.
● UT-Sen: On Wednesday, one day before the filing deadline, state Rep. Mike Kennedy announced he would challenge Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination. Kennedy, who is not related to Romney's 1994 Democratic foe Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy, is reportedly well-regarded by Utah Republicans, but he's going to need a whole lot to go right to have a chance at the universally-known Romney. We'll take a closer look at this race once filing has closed and we have a list of candidates.
● WV-Sen: Restoration PAC, a group that's largely funded by billionaire Richard Uihlein, is launching a spot in support of Attorney General Patrick Morrissey ahead of the May 8 GOP primary to take on Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. The group has begun what the National Journal says is a $500,000 buy, and their spot frames the election as a choice between Manchin "who fakes West Virginia values around election time," and Morrissey "who lives them every day." The narrator praises Morrissey for backing Trump's agenda and doesn't mention either of his two primary foes. This is the first pro-Morrissey TV commercial that's aired.
Meanwhile, disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship is up with another ad targeting Rep. Evan Jenkins, the third major candidate in the race. The spot takes Jenkins for task for running a commercial that began with picturesque views of the state and a narrator calling the state "almost heaven." Blankenship's narrator argues that Jenkins has some nerve doing that because of how awful things are in the state. Yes, really: The narrator notes that so many West Virginians "are forced to live below the poverty line."
The spot then hits Jenkins for touting his work in a Huntington facility that threats drug-dependent newborns, arguing that Huntington residents aren't proud of this but angry because "Evan has represented them for 20 years, and Huntington's the drug abuse capital of America." It then says Jenkins was a liberal while he represented them, and then cites how his 3rd Congressional District ranks 431 out of 435 in the U.S. (the speaker doesn't say in what, but a graphic says it's the economy, which is an awfully vague metric.) Jenkins has only represented the seat since 2015 after a long career as a Democrat in the legislature, so it seems like a massive stretch to blame Jenkins for some very serious and long-term problems.
However, Blankenship's ads may be having their desired effect. A recent Jenkins poll found the congressman leading Blankenship just 29-27, with Morrissey at 19; a month ago, Jenkins dropped a poll showing him beating Morrisey 33-25, while Blankenship was at 18. Blankenship has also run an ad against Morrissey.
Gubernatorial
● CA-Gov: California's second and final filing deadline (this one just for seats where the incumbent is retiring) passed on Thursday for the June 5 top-two primary. The Secretary of State will have a certified list of candidates on March 29, but most counties and a number of media organizations have unofficial lists. We've been taking a look at who has filed for competitive congressional and statewide races all week, as well as any important last-minute developments, and we're going to keep doing it for the next few Digests. Once we have an official statewide list, we'll note any important changes.
For the second time in 28 years, Democrat Jerry Brown is leaving the governor's office. The race to succeed him has been underway for years, and Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, a former mayor of San Francisco who briefly ran against Brown in 2009, announced he was running all the way back in 2015. Newsom, who has consistently led in the polls and ended 2017 with more money than all his rivals combined, is the undisputed front-runner. While we've seen plenty of front-runners falter in primaries, it's going to take a lot to prevent Newsom from at least reaching the general election.
The big question right now is who would join him, and which party they'll hail from. Including Newsom, five noteworthy Democrats and two Republicans are running. On the Democratic side, Newsom's main rival looks like former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. State Treasurer John Chiang is also in the mix, but he hasn't polled well so far. Former state schools Superintendent Delaine Eastin, who left office in 2003, has been running for over a year, but she's barely registered in the polls and has little money or outside support. Amanda Renteria, who served as national political director for Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential bid, launched a surprise bid in February.
California Republicans have very little hope about actually winning back the governorship, but they at least want to have a candidate in the general to encourage conservatives to turn out for more competitive down-ballot races. It looks very unlikely that Team Red will even have a candidate in the general for Senate, so they have every reason to concentrate on winning second place here in June. Newsom undoubtedly would also prefer to face a Republican in November in this very blue state rather than another Democrat, but national Democrats feel differently. The main GOP candidate looks like businessman John Cox, who has given his campaign $5 million. Assemblyman Travis Allen, who represents an Orange County seat, is also in.
Early polls mostly showed Newsom far in front in June and Villaraigosa in second, though there haven't been many surveys here. But Villaraigosa's allies have argued that Renteria only got in the race to peel Hispanic away from him in order to help Newsom. Renteria has denied she's anyone's stalking horse, though she never really did explain why she was launching a longshot bid this close to the primary.
Renteria did come out swinging against Newsom on Thursday when she called for him to resign from office over an affair he had a decade ago with a city hall aide, which may quiet talk that she's secretely trying to help Newsom. Few candidates have begun airing TV spots in this incredibly expensive state, and things could change quite a bit once the ad wars begin in earnest.
● IL-Gov: State Rep. Jeanne Ives’ campaign against Gov. Bruce Rauner in Tuesday's GOP primary still feels unlikely to succeed, but two very different groups are acting like it's more competitive than it seems to be. The Ives campaign is out with a poll showing her down just 7 points, while the Democratic Governors Association has launched an ad ostensibly attacking her, but really intended to make her more appealing to conservatives so she can beat Rauner.
We'll start with the second part first. The DGA is airing two last-minute TV spots, one nominally "against" Ives, and the other genuinely against Rauner, backed by a reported $451,000 buy. The Ives ad begins with a narrator asking, "When is a conservative leader too conservative for Illinois?" then answers by saying Ives has been “rated as one of the most conservative” legislators in the state. The voiceover continues:
"Ives wants to ban abortions. She has an 'A' rating from the NRA, pushing to arm teachers and stop new gun laws. And on immigration, Ives marches in lock-step with President Trump, trying to eliminate protections for undocumented immigrants."
If this were a general election, that's exactly the type of ad the Democrats really would run against Ives to try and beat her. However, this ad—much like those that Claire McCaskill famously ran against Todd Akin—is designed to make Ives sound awesome to conservative viewers. After all, there aren't too many GOP primary voters who would be repelled by a candidate with an A-rating from the NRA, or by someone who sides with Trump on immigration.
The ad against Rauner, by contrast, is intended to do the exact opposite. The narrator bemoans how under Rauner "our state has the worst unemployment rate in the Midwest—and the worst credit rating of any state in the country," messaging intended to hurt him with voters across the political spectrum.
The DGA's meddling is probably the best news Ives' campaign has gotten all year, which began with the conservative pollster We Ask America releasing a poll that gave Rauner a 65-21 lead. Ives' campaign has now unveiled a survey from the firm Ogden & Fry showing Rauner up just 42-35—better, sure, but still an admission she's down without much time left.
In any case, we'll know on Tuesday if the DGA's intervention is enough to shift things. Rauner is not popular after three chaotic years in this blue state, but the billionaire governor still has enough money to put up a serious and nasty fight. However, if the ultra-conservative Ives somehow emerges with the GOP nod, the race could turn into a near-certain Democratic pickup. Watch this racist and transphobic ad from Ives herself if you're wondering if she has much of a shot in a state that Clinton carried 55-38.
And whether Rauner thinks Ives can beat him or not, he still is running ads to weaken her before Tuesday. Rauner is out with yet another spot tying Ives to state House Speaker Mike Madigan, the Democrat that Illinois Republicans love to attack more than any other. The commercial repeatedly features a quick clip of Ives saying "we'll work with Mike Madigan" and the narrator incredulously asks how Ives could want to work with someone so wretched as him. Yet even if Rauner does hang on, polling shows him down against any of his potential Democratic opponents.
● NY-Gov: State GOP leaders had said that Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro told them earlier this month that he would reverse course and challenge Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo after all, and he finally got around to telling the public that himself on Wednesday.
It's hard to explain Molinaro's change of heart, though: Cuomo remains an extremely formidable opponent, even though his former top aide was just convicted on corruption charges, and New York is just as blue as it was when Molinaro originally decided not to run two months ago. Molinaro himself would only say that "a number of variables … have changed," and specifically cited just one, what he called "a really genuine outpouring" of support from the state GOP. ("I mean this with the greatest amount of sincerity," he added, so you know it has to be true.)
One thing that has actually changed, though, is the Republican field, following the unexpected departure of Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb last month. A number of Republican leaders who had endorsed Kolb have since switched to Molinaro, who is now likely to earn the backing of the majority of the state party at its convention in May.
That would make Molinaro the GOP's "designated candidate for nomination" under state law, but in practical terms, the most important thing is to win the support of at least 25 percent of convention delegates. That's because candidates who do so don't have to petition their way on to the ballot—a difficult and expensive process in New York.
And it's very possible Molinaro will get to avoid a primary altogether. His chief rival for the GOP nomination, state Sen. John DeFrancisco, has attracted far less support from party leaders, and if he fails to win the backing of 25 percent of delegates (right now, reports place him at 18 percent support), he'd need to gather signatures to appear on the primary ballot.
It doesn't seem like he'll go that route, though. DeFrancisco said last week that he'd drop out if the party endorses someone else at the convention, though he added the Trump-esque caveat that he'd do so only if "the process is fair"—without, of course, specifying what that means. (DeFrancisco was reportedly very "grumpy" after a recent straw poll of party chairs went Molinaro's way.) Joseph Holland, a former state housing commissioner, is also running, but influential party leaders seem interested in having him drop down to the lieutenant governor's race.
House
● CA-39: State and national Democrats have not been quiet about voicing their fears that two Republicans could advance through the June top-two primary and lock Team Blue out of the general election for this open seat. Their math got a little easier hours before Wednesday's filing deadline when education consultant Phil Janowicz announced he was dropping out in order to try to prevent this kind of disaster. When the dust settled, a total of nine Democrats, seven Republicans, and four others had filed to run, though election officials still need to verify that all these people submitted enough signatures.
It's anyone's guess what will happen in June, though if any Republicans are worried that they'll be the ones locked out of the general, they're being very subtle about it. Still, it's worth noting that national Republicans reportedly tried to convince at least one candidate to drop out. Former state Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff took a little longer than his main intra-party rivals to file to run, and Around the Capitol's Scott Lay wrote on Monday that he was "under big NRCC pressure to not do so." However, Huff went ahead and filed anyway.
This Southern California seat, which includes Fullerton and Yorba Linda, has been represented by GOP Rep. Ed Royce since 1993, and Royce originally planned to run again. This district swung from 51-47 Romney to 51-43 Clinton, and a number of Democrats kicked off bids against Royce before he unexpectedly decided to retire in January. The state party did not endorse anyone last month.
Mai Khanh Tran, who came to the United States as a refugee from Vietnam and worked as a Wall Street analyst before becoming a pediatrician, has the support of EMILY's List, and she's the only woman running a credible campaign on the Democratic side. A number of local House members have thrown their support behind Navy veteran Gil Cisneros, who won $266 million in the 2010 Mega Millions lottery and used some of his winnings to create a scholarship to help Hispanic youths get to college.
Wealthy businessman Andy Thorburn is a former public school teacher in New Jersey who was active in the American Federation of Teachers, and he's highlighted how he was arrested and jailed for 30 days for participating in an illegal teachers' strike way back in 1970. The remaining noteworthy Democrat is former Commerce Department official Sam Jammal. This was already looking like a very expensive contest before Royce retired. Thorburn had $2 million in the bank at the end of December, while Cisneros had $1 million; Tran had $535,000, while Jammal had just shy of $200,000. The only candidate who hadn't done any significant self-funding was Jammal.
The GOP also has a large field. Royce quickly threw his support behind former Assemblywoman Young Kim, who worked in his congressional office for years. Kim won a seat in the Fullerton-area in the 2014 GOP wave that makes up about a quarter of the 39th District, and she lost re-election two years later 53-47 while Clinton was carrying her district 57-37. The aforementioned Huff represented about 80 percent of this district until he was termed-out at the end of 2016, so he should have plenty of name recognition. However, Huff's 2016 bid for a seat on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors ended with him taking third place in a crowded race and narrowly missing the general election.
Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson, who has been in office since 2010, is also in, and the Los Angeles Times says he represents about half the 39th. Two potential wildcards are La Mirada Councilman Andrew Sarega and Brea Councilman Steve Vargas. Brea makes up only a small portion of this seat while all of La Mirada is in another district, but Sarega said in January that he'd throw $200,000 of his own money into his campaign.
● CA-48: While the California Democratic Party recently endorsed biologist Hans Keirstead and DCCC chair Ben Ray Lujan notably donated to him, three local House members are going in a different direction. On Thursday, Reps. Lou Correa, Alan Lowenthal, and Linda Sanchez all backed real estate company owner Harley Rouda. Democrats are worried that two Republicans, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and former Orange County party chair Scott Baugh, could advance through the June top-two, but party movers-and-shakers aren't consolidating behind any single candidate.
● IL-03: In a final twist that shows you where Blue Dog Rep. Dan Lipinski's true support really lies, his campaign just got a boost from the Susan B. Anthony List, a group normally devoted to electing anti-choice Republicans. The fact that Lipinski is nominally a Democrat doesn't seem to be a problem, though: SBA's president called the congressman "a hero to the pro-life movement" and says the organization is spending "six figures" on digital ads and mailers ahead of Tuesday's primary.
That sum, though, is matched by a new $175,000 round of spending on more TV ads from Citizens for Illinois, a super PAC backed by NARAL that's supporting Marie Newman. Newman also earned a late endorsement from Toni Preckwinkle, who is the influential president of the Cook County Board and is well-known locally for having backed Barack Obama very early in his political career.
● IN-04: Wealthy Senate candidate Mike Braun has been airing ads statewide for months, but his brother, former state Workforce Development Director Steve Braun, is only going up with his first ad now ahead of the May 8 GOP primary for this open seat. Steve Braun tells the audience that "Hoosiers are ready for America First," which he defines as "creating good jobs for hardworking folks just like I've done for 30 years in business," as well as building the border wall. The narrator concludes that Braun is "the conservative leader Donald Trump needs to put America first." Braun is one of a few Republicans seeking to succeed Rep. Todd Rokita, who is leaving to run for the Senate, in this 64-30 Trump seat around Lafayette; Braun notably donated to Rokita instead of to his brother.
● KY-06: Marine veteran Amy McGrath rocketed to political fame last year with an introductory campaign video that immediately went viral. Now she's hoping to translate some of that magic on to the airwaves with her first TV ad, which condenses that original video to a 60-second version, describing how McGrath became the first woman in the Marine Corps to fly the F/A-18 in combat missions, despite her member of Congress informing her as a young girl that women couldn't hold such positions. Her campaign says it spent $50,000 to air the spot during the University of Kentucky's first-round NCAA men's basketball tournament game against Davidson on Thursday evening. (UK basketball is just a liiitle bit popular in Kentucky.)
● MI-06: Political science professor Paul Clements, who was the Democratic nominee in Michigan's 6th District in both 2014 and 2016, has released a new poll from GQR Research showing him at the head of the pack in this year's primary for the right to take on GOP Rep. Fred Upton. The survey finds Clements taking 21 percent of the vote and activist Eponine Garrod at 12, while physician Matt Longjohn, former Kellogg lobbyist George Franklin, businessman Rich Eichholz, and history professor David Benac are all clustered in the 4 to 6 percent range. A wide plurality of 48 percent are undecided.
The results are unsurprising: Clements has residual name recognition thanks to his two prior bids (both of which he lost badly), while the other candidates have yet to spend in earnest, since Michigan's primary is not until August. And once they do, at least Franklin and Longjohn, who both raised more than Clements in the final quarter of 2017, will have the chance to make up that gap.
● OH-16: Republicans gerrymandered this seat to within a centimeter of its life, and at 53-45 Romney and 56-39 Trump, it's not especially promising territory for Team Blue. Still, Democrats may have a candidate with an interesting profile whom we didn't take note of when filing closed last month. Grant Goodrich, who began raising money in January, is a retired Marine who went on to serve as interim CEO of the regional partner of the state economic development agency JobsOhio. We'll have our first indication around mid-April if he can raise the type of money he'll need for a serious race on tough turf.
The May 8 GOP primary could also impact whether national Democrats take notice in this seat. In one corner is former football star Anthony Gonzalez, who has the support of much of the party establishment. In the other is state Rep. Christina Hagan, who was a prominent Trump supporter in the presidential primary, but has far less money than her foe. Either would be tough to beat, but Hagan may give Democrats more of an opening in a wave year.
● PA-01: Prominent Democrats in Bucks County, which makes most of this suburban Philadelphia swing seat, are backing wealthy attorney and philanthropist Scott Wallace in the May 15 primary. However, Navy veteran and JAG attorney Rachel Reddick is out with an internal poll from GBA Strategies that gives her a 27-20 lead over Wallace, while environmentalist Steve Bacher takes 7. Reddick also picked up an endorsement this week from VoteVets. All three Democrats are running to take on GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in a seat that narrowly backed both Obama and Clinton.
● PA-05: On Thursday, Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney endorsed Rich Lazer, whom the Philadelphia Inquirer has described as his "right-hand man," in the Democratic primary for this new 63-34 Clinton seat. The city of Philadelphia makes up just 16 percent of this new seat, with almost 80 percent in Delaware County (the balance is in Montgomery County), but with so many Delaware Democrats running, Lazer could win if he does well at home. Lazer, who was the city's deputy mayor for labor until he resigned to run for Congress, is also likely to enjoy plenty of union support.
● PA-07: A long-running local corruption scandal involving Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski came to an end earlier this month. Pawlowski, a Democrat who ran aborted primary campaigns for governor in 2014 and for Senate the next cycle, was found guilty of rigging city contracts to help donors and forced to leave office. It's not clear what impact this story will have on the race for this Lehigh Valley swing seat, but it could help one Democratic candidate stand out. Former federal prosecutor Joe Khan, who played a key role in beginning the investigation, endorsed former Allentown solicitor Susan Wild in the May primary.
Khan put out a statement commending Wild, who was solicitor when his team issued a search warrant for city hall in the summer of 2015. Khan said that that Wild, who was responsible for collecting and turning over thousands of documents to the Khan and the FBI, "worked hard to correct mistakes of the past and to implement safeguards for the future," and "asserted and maintained her independence, with grace under fire despite being put in an incredibly difficult position."
● PA-14: National Republicans have done everything they can to make Pennsylvania state Rep. Rick Saccone the fall guy for their loss in the old 18th Congressional District, criticizing him for everything from his fundraising to his ads, his intelligence, and even his mustache. However, Saccone may end up in Congress next year anyway, which would make things … awkward. Saccone still hasn't conceded defeat against Democrat Conor Lamb, but with Tuesday's candidate filing deadline approaching, Saccone has announced that he'll seek the GOP nomination to run in the new 14th District. However, as we'll explain, he's likely in for a tough May primary fight against state Sen. Guy Reschenthaler, who is reportedly planning to run as well.
The new 14th includes 57 percent of the seat Saccone lost on Tuesday. And while the old 18th District backed Trump "just" 58-39, the new 14th supported him 63-34, so even Saccone probably couldn't screw up a general election here. (Probably.) However, the new district doesn't contain any of Saccone's Allegheny County base, and it only includes a fraction of his state House district. And oh yeah, there's the whole thing about him being the most hated person in the GOP (this week, anyway).
Republicans began privately complaining about Saccone's campaign skills as far back as December, and Politico reported that some locals had been encouraging Reschenthaler to run even before Saccone lost. The griping only got louder as we got closer to Election Day, and while some Republicans were probably only trying to lower expectations so they could spin the most narrow of Saccone wins as a massive victory, there really seems to be plenty of genuine anger with him. Corry Bliss, the head of Paul Ryan's allied super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund, said on the record—before any votes were even counted on Tuesday—that "the Saccone campaign was a joke." He added, "If we had a candidate who could walk and chew gum at the same time, we would have won that race."
Things only have only gotten more intense since Saccone lost, though the NRCC also still hasn’t conceded the defeat. While some Republicans publically admitted that what happened was a sign that they were in for a tough November, far more preferred to just blame Saccone for everything. One strategist even told the Washington Examiner that not only was Saccone a bad candidate, he had "a porn stache" he should have shaved off. So yeah, Rick Saccone has made a few enemies.
If Saccone had actually won on Tuesday, even barely, he might have been able to avert a primary challenge, but he didn't get so lucky. The Pittsburg Post-Gazette writes that Reschenthaler is "expected to run" in the new 14th, though his team isn't commenting. Like Saccone, Reschenthaler represents very little of this district, but unlike Saccone, he didn't just embarrass himself on a national stage.
Meanwhile, two other local legislators have taken their names out of contention here. State Sen. Kim Ward not only announced she wouldn't run and publicly encouraged Reschenthaler to get in, but she also told the Post-Gazette that petitions were already being circulated to get him on the ballot. All three ran for the special election nomination at a party convention (there was no primary), and after Ward was eliminated from contention, her supporters went over to Saccone and … the rest is history. (This time, she's obviously changed her mind about which horse to back.) State Sen. Camera Bartolotta has also said no.
There's one other thing to consider. Saccone needs to collect 1,000 valid signatures in less than a week, and given how many bridges he's burned, he may have a tough time getting organized quickly enough to get them. It would certainly be a fitting capstone to Saccone's career if he failed to make—or got booted from—the ballot. But even if he does get to the May primary, he’ll need to work a whole lot harder to beat Reschenthaler than he did to beat Lamb now that his name has become a synonym for failure. And should Saccone actually belatedly get to Congress, let's just say things are going to be pretty tense between him and well, everyone else on Capitol Hill.
● PA-17: Fresh off his victory in Tuesday night's special election, ABC News reports that, as expected, Democratic Rep.-elect Conor Lamb will seek re-election in the newly created 17th District. This seat draws about 20 percent of its population from the old 18th, which Lamb just won, but instead of wrapping around Pittsburgh to the south, it takes in suburban areas to the city's northwest. As a result, it's also much friendlier turf: Donald Trump carried it by just a 49-47 margin, a far cry from his wide 58-39 win in the old 18th.
The 17th does present a problem, though, and it's called Keith Rothfus. The third-term Republican congressman, who currently represents the much redder 12th District, has little choice but to run in the new 17th, much to his displeasure (even though he currently represents 56 percent of its constituents). That would set up an incredibly rare member-vs.-member general election, and Rothfus, unlike many other Keystone Republicans who seemed unprepared for court-ordered redistricting to hand them bluer districts, has stockpiled a $1.2 million war-chest.
But Lamb proved himself to be a prolific fundraiser in his just-concluded election, and thanks both to the new district's demographics and the general political environment, he could well wind up favored. Indeed, Lamb won the part of the new 17th that overlaps with the old 18th by a wide 61-39 margin, even though Hillary Clinton only carried that portion of the district 49-47. What's more, Lamb just got added to the DCCC's Frontline program for vulnerable incumbents, and the committee is sure to help him retain his hard-won gains if he needs assistance.
Rothfus, meanwhile, hasn’t faced a competitive race since he won his first term. He first challenged Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire during the 2010 GOP wave in a seat that McCain had carried 55-45, but lost 51-49. Rothfus then benefited tremendously two years later from a gerrymander that was designed to cause Altmire to lose in the primary to fellow Democratic Rep. Mark Critz, who only represented 29 percent of the newly redrawn seat. Rothfus then unseated Critz 52-48 in the general election, though he still ran well behind Romney's 58-41 showing. Those campaigns were a long time ago now, though, and Rothfus has only faced token challengers ever since. Lamb will be anything but, and Rothfus is going to need to prepare for a much tougher race than he’s become accustomed to.
● VA-10: Gov. Ralph Northam has waded into the very crowded and very expensive June Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock and endorsed state Sen. Jennifer Wexton. Wexton is the only elected official in the contest, so it's not a huge surprise Northam's backing her; Wexton also has the support of neighboring Rep. Gerry Connolly and Rep. Donald McEachin.
Wexton looked like the front-runner when she entered the race and she may still be, but she does have some well-funded opponents. Former State Department official Alison Friedman had by far the most money at the end of December with a $687,000 war chest. Army veteran Dan Helmer, who has VoteVets' support and briefly became nationally famous over the summer with a so bad it's good digital ad we still refuse to watch, had $483,000 at his disposal, just a little more than Wexton's $474,000. Not too far behind was Lindsey Davis Stover, a former Veterans Administration official who had $414,000 to spend. Former federal prosecutor Paul Pelletier entered the race considerably later than everyone else, and he had $184,000 on-hand after his first quarter.
This Northern Virginia seat swung from 50-49 Romney to 52-42 Clinton, and Northam carried it 56-43 last year. Comstock is going to need a lot to go right if she wants to win a third term in what's looking like it will be an especially awful year for suburban Republicans, but she has proven to be a tough opponent. Comstock is also well-funded and she ended December with just shy of $1.2 million on-hand.
● House: Spooked by Conor Lamb's upset victory, anonymous "[t]op House Republicans" (or at least, their aides) called out more than half a dozen GOP incumbents by name to the Washington Examiner's David Drucker, saying they've been running "complacent" campaigns that could turn each of them into the next Rick Saccone. And notably, every member of this dishonor roll represents a district won by Donald Trump, whose performance we include in parentheses:
- IL-12: Mike Bost (55-40)
- MI-07: Tim Walberg (56-39)
- MI-08: Mike Bishop (51-44)
- NC-09: Robert Pittenger (54-43)
- NC-13: Ted Budd (53-44)
- VA-05: Tom Garrett (53-42)
- VA-07: Dave Brat (51-44)
- WI-06: Glenn Grothman (56-39)
Of course, when you're using the press to give someone a sharp kick in the rear, it means that private methods of communication have already failed. Some efforts to light fires under lackluster red-district representatives have reportedly shown some success, though. Elsewhere in Drucker's piece, Grothman is credited with "stepping up his game," along with Rep. John Culberson (TX-07).
Two other slackers, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05) and Rep. Andy Barr (KY-06), are likewise said to have "seen an uptick in fundraising and legwork." Still, it's shocking to see McMorris Rodgers, a senior member of leadership and the only woman in the top ranks of the House GOP, make any kind of list of laggards at all. And these are only the people that Republican insiders are so fed up with they've decided to complain publicly about. No doubt the full list of loafers is longer—the rest just haven't come in for a public shaming yet.
Grab Bag
● Statehouse Action: This Week in Statehouse Action: Beware The Ides edition features nervous Republicans in North Carolina, Tennessee GOPers refusing to denounce neo-Nazis, a Nevada court ruling that’s bad news for Republican recalls, an Iowa smooching senator’s light-speed resignation, and more!
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