The 2018 primary season begins on March 6! Voters in both parties will head to the polls in Texas, and this year promises more House action than we’ve seen in the Lone Star State in a long time.
In past election cycles, both national parties worked hard to win the sprawling 23rd Congressional District in the western part of the state, while Texas’s 35 other districts were universally regarded as safe for one party or the other. But while the 23rd is still a major battleground, Democrats are optimistic about their chances in two other seats that shifted from Romney to Clinton (the 7th and 32nd), and there are a few other seats that could also be in play. In addition, eight members of the delegation (two Democrats and six Republicans) are also leaving the House, and we have competitive primaries to succeed most of them.
Polls close at 8 PM ET in most of the state, with a small portion of the state in the Mountain Time Zone around El Paso staying open until 9 PM. Candidates in both parties need to take a majority on Tuesday to win their party’s nomination outright, otherwise runoffs between the top two vote-getters will be held on May 22. Our guide to the key races to watch Tuesday is below, and join us at Daily Kos Elections that night for our liveblog of all of the races on the docket. You can also follow us on Twitter, where we'll be live-tweeting the results.
• TX-07 (D) (48-47 Clinton, 60-39 Romney): This suburban Houston seat has been in GOP hands since George H.W. Bush won it in 1966, and longtime GOP Rep. John Culberson is accustomed to easy re-elections. However, this area reacted badly to Trump, and Democrats hope that a backlash against the White House, as well as some complacency on Culberson’s part, will turn this conservative district into pickup opportunity. Several Democrats are running, and four of them look like they'll have the resources to advance to the likely May runoff.
This race attracted national attention at the last possible minute when the DCCC made a very unusual and controversial attempt to undermine author and activist Laura Moser's campaign less than two weeks before the primary. The DCCC argued that Moser, who rose to prominence as the creator of a text-messaging activism app called Daily Action, amounted to a "truly disqualified general election candidate that would eliminate our ability to flip a district blue," and even posted some opposition research online showing Moser making disparaging remarks about the city of Paris, Texas. The move inflamed Moser's supporters and other national observers who were already skeptical of the party establishment, and Moser says it's boosted her fundraising. However, it's anyone's guess how primary voters on the ground are reacting.
The DCCC has not formally endorsed any of Moser's opponents, but one major Democratic group has. EMILY's List has supported attorney Lizzie Pannill Fletcher for months. But Fletcher has earned the ire of organized labor, which is furious with her because her law firm once represented a commercial cleaning company that won a $5.3 million suit against a union affiliated with the AFL-CIO. Fletcher says she was uninvolved in the case, but that hasn't assuaged her detractors in the labor movement.
Two other candidates, nonprofit director Alex Triantaphyllis and cancer researcher Jason Westin, have attracted neither the major support nor the major opposition that Moser and Fletcher each have. Triantaphyllis led the pack in spending close to $480,000 in the first 45 days of the year (what the FEC calls the “pre-primary” period), with Westin a distant second, with just shy of $300,000. A few other candidates are also running, including James Cargas, who may have some name recognition since he was Team Blue's nominee against Culberson during the last three cycles, though he never came close to beating him.
• TX-02 (R) (52-43 Trump, 63-36 Romney): GOP Rep. Ted Poe has decided not to seek an eighth term, and there's a crowded GOP primary to succeed him in his suburban Houston seat. Whoever emerges from the GOP primary will be the favorite in November, though Democrats hope that the district's shift away from Trump will give them an opening. Nonprofit executive Todd Litton is running for Team Blue, and none of his primary rivals have raised or spent much.
On the Republican side, major party donor Kathaleen Wall has used her personal wealth to far outspend her primary foes. Wall spent close to $4 million during the pre-primary period, and she's mainly used that money to air ads arguing that she supports Trump's border wall. Wall also has received endorsements from Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz.
Several other Republicans are also running. State Rep. Kevin Roberts is the only current elected official in the race, and he has the support of the NRA and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett (a position akin to county executive). Roberts spent just shy of $300,000 during the pre-primary period—far less than Wall, but more than anyone else. Businessman Rick Walker, meanwhile, spent $215,000 during the pre-primary phase. Several other Republicans are also running, but none of them have spent much, nor do they have much name recognition.
• TX-05 (R) (63-34 Trump, 65-34 Romney): Longtime GOP Rep. Jeb Hensarling is retiring from this seat, which stretches from the Dallas suburbs into rural East Texas, and his party should have no problem holding it without him. Hensarling quickly threw his support behind fundraiser Bunni Pounds, who is his former campaign manager. Pounds spent $241,000 during the pre-primary period, which is considerably more than any of her rivals.
However, another Republican also has some high-profile help. Jason Wright used to be a staffer for Sen. Ted Cruz, and he has his old boss's endorsement. Meanwhile, state Rep. Lance Gooden is the only current elected official in the race, which could give him a name recognition edge. However, Gooden doesn't seem very popular at home: He narrowly lost renomination to his rural state House seat in 2014, and only won the primary to get it back 52-48 in 2016. Gooden spent just $86,000 in the pre-primary period, which is more than anyone but Pounds.
Former state Rep. Kenneth Sheets is also in, but his last race went even worse than Gooden’s: In 2016, Sheets was the only Republican in the state House to lose re-election to a Democrat. The hardline anti-tax group the Club for Growth hasn't endorsed anyone, but they've run ads against both Gooden and Sheets, arguing that they supported higher taxes.
• TX-06 (R) (54-42 Trump, 58-41 Romney): Longtime GOP Rep. Joe Barton was originally planning to seek another term in this Fort Worth-area seat. However, he chose to retire in late November after a nude photo of him circulated on Twitter and the public learned about some very unsavory aspects of his personal life. This seat will likely remain red, though Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez, a public relations consultant, has attracted some attention.
As for the GOP, Ron Wright, a former Barton chief of staff, was long viewed as the congressman’s heir apparent (though naturally everyone expected Barton to depart under better circumstances), and Wright indeed resigned as Tarrant County tax assessor-collector to run in the race to succeed his old boss. However, it's unclear if Wright's history with Barton will be an asset or a liability (Barton himself half-jokingly suggested his endorsement would hurt a candidate, though he said he'd probably vote for Wright.) Wright has the support of a number of local elected officials, and he earned the support of Sen. Ted Cruz in the final week of the race. But despite his establishment backing, his fundraising has been weak: Wright spent just $36,000 during the pre-primary period.
However, none of Wright's primary foes are exactly flush, either. Jake Ellzey, a Navy vet who serves on the Texas Veterans Commission, launched a bid against Barton just before he retired, though Ellzey claims he was planning to run even before the scandal broke. Ellzey ran for office once before, taking just 16 percent of the vote in a 2014 primary for a state House seat even though he had then-Gov. Rick Perry's endorsement. Perry, who is now Trump's secretary of energy, is again supporting Ellzey, who also spent a similar $35,000 during the pre-primary period.
Somewhat unexpectedly, the biggest spender—albeit not by much—was someone we hadn't taken much note of. Shannon Dubberly, an IT project manager and former defense contractor, spent $45,000 during the pre-primary period, though he doesn't seem to have much outside support.
• TX-16 (D) (68-27 Clinton, 64-35 Obama): Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke is giving up this safely blue El Paso seat to run for the Senate. O'Rourke and a number of progressive organizations, including Daily Kos, are supporting Veronica Escobar, who resigned as El Paso County judge to run here (the post is akin to both a county executive and legislator).
Escobar's main primary foe is former El Paso school board president Dori Fenenbock, who narrowly outspent Escobar $330,000 to $313,000 in the pre-primary period. Plenty of Democrats are wary of Fenenbock, who only voted in a Democratic primary for the first time last year and has relied heavily on Republican donors. A longtime GOP operative named Carlos Sierra, who most recently worked for Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson, also has run a super PAC attacking Escobar. A few other Democrats are running, including ex-state Rep. Norma Chavez, though she's had little success at the ballot box over the last decade and has little money or outside support.
• TX-21 (R & D) (52-42 Trump, 60-38 Romney): Longtime GOP Rep. Lamar Smith is retiring, and there's a crowded race to succeed him. This seat, which stretches from Austin to San Antonio and takes in part of the Texas Hill Country (where LBJ grew up), is usually reliably red, but this is another seat where Democrats hope that distaste for Trump will give them an opening.
There's no clear frontrunner on the GOP side. Longtime Republican operative Chip Roy was Sen. Ted Cruz's first chief of staff, and he has his old boss's endorsement. Roy also has the support of the anti-tax Club For Growth, which has run ads on his behalf starring Cruz. Former CIA operative William Negley, meanwhile, has been making the most of his credentials as a "terrorist hunter," and he's also gotten some support from a new super PAC. Negley and Roy each spent about $190,000 in the pre-primary period, considerably more than any of their rivals.
However, several other Republicans could advance to the likely May runoff. State Rep. Jason Isaac is the one current elected official running. Former Rep. Quico Canseco, who used to represent the neighboring 23rd, may also have some name recognition, though he's spent little and has no major outside support. We've heard little about businessman Mauro Garza, but he's done some self-funding. Political consultant Jenifer Sarver is one of the few women running, though she may have destroyed her campaign when she admitted to supporting Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016. Former Bexar County GOP Chair Robert Stovall may have the connections to advance, though his fundraising has been weak, while perennial candidate Matt McCall may have some name recognition from his past primary bids against Smith.
The field is considerably smaller on the Democratic side. Army veteran and businessman Joseph Kopser spent $275,000 in the pre-primary period, more than anyone on either side. Kopser faces a few Democrats, including former Travis County party executive director Elliott McFadden and former congressional staffer Derrick Crowe.
• TX-23 (D) (50-46 Clinton, 51-48 Romney): GOP Rep. Will Hurd pulled off a narrow victory last cycle in this sprawling district—which was the only true swing seat in the whole state for years—which stretches from San Antonio west to the outskirts of El Paso and also includes parts of the border with Mexico. Hurd will be a top Democratic target again, and a few candidates are hoping to unseat him.
The two main Democrats are former federal prosecutor Jay Hulings and former Air Force intelligence officer Gina Ortiz Jones. Hulings is close to Rep. Joaquin Castro, who represents a neighboring district, and his brother, former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, and he has the endorsement of House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Jones, who would be the first lesbian veteran to serve in Congress as well as the body's first Filipina-American, has the support of EMILY's List and VoteVets. Hulings outspent Jones $268,000 to $234,000 in the pre-primary period, but she had more money left for the home stretch.
A few other Democrats are also in the race. Rick Trevino, a Bernie Sanders supporter, narrowly lost a city council race in San Antonio last year, while former Department of Agriculture official Judy Canales is the one candidate who hails from outside San Antonio. (Canales is from Eagle Pass, a small community near the border.) But neither candidate has spent much, so it will be a challenge for either of them to advance to a runoff.
• TX-27 (R) (60-37 Trump, 61-38 Romney): GOP Rep. Blake Farenthold had filed to run for a fifth term even after news broke that he had used taxpayer money to settle a former aide's sexual harassment lawsuit against him. However, Farenthold finally dropped out of the race after the filing deadline passed after more former aides accused him of bullying and sexual harassment, and the state GOP successfully kept his name off the ballot. This means that the only people seeking this very red seat in the Corpus Christi-area are the people who were already planning to challenge Farenthold before he decided to quit.
The GOP primary frontrunner looks like Bech Bruun, who resigned as chair of the state Water Development Board to run against Farenthold a few weeks before the congressman terminated his political career. Former Victoria County GOP Chair Michael Cloud was also running against Farenthold for months, albeit with little fanfare, and during the pre-primary period, Bruun outspent him $180,000 to $36,000. A few other candidates are running, so it's possible we’ll see a runoff, but it would be a surprise if Bruun doesn't win the GOP nomination when all is said and done.
• TX-29 (D) (71-25 Clinton, 66-33 Obama): Longtime Democratic Rep. Gene Green is retiring from this safely blue seat, and he joined most of the Houston political establishment in backing state Sen. Sylvia Garcia. Garcia scared off most prominent Democrats, but wealthy healthcare executive Tahir Javed, a longtime party donor, decided to run anyway. Javed had used his wealth to flood the airwaves, and he outspent Garcia by a giant $805,000 to $208,000 in the pre-primary period. Javed also picked up an endorsement from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, which inflamed Garcia's allies.
However, Garcia is nevertheless likely the frontrunner going into Tuesday. Garcia's state Senate district contains about 90 percent of this congressional seat, providing her with both name recognition and a pre-existing base of support. By contrast, Javed only moved to the district in December from Beaumont, which is well to the east of this Houston-based seat. Demographics should also aide Garcia. This seat is almost 75 percent Hispanic, and Garcia would be the first Hispanic House member from the Houston area. Javed, who immigrated to the United States from Pakistan, would be the state's first Asian-American representative. A few other Democrats are on the ballot, so it's possible no one will win enough support to avoid a runoff.
• TX-32 (D) (49-47 Clinton, 57-41 Romney): This Dallas-area district is another seat that shifted hard against Trump, and where Democrats hope to put up a serious fight for the first time in decades. However, Team Blue will likely need to wait until the May runoff to learn who will be challenging longtime GOP Rep. Pete Sessions, a former NRCC chair.
Former Obama State Department official Ed Meier, who went on to work for the Clinton campaign, has decisively outspent his rivals in the final weeks of the campaign. However, EMILY's List is supporting Lillian Salerno, a former Department of Agriculture official. Colin Allred, a one-time NFL player turned civil rights attorney, has a very interesting background that could also help him stand out in the field. Former TV investigative reporter Brett Shipp jumped into the primary late, and while he's spent little, he brings plenty of name recognition to the table.