MS-Sen-B: Mississippi and national Republicans have been preparing for Sen. Thad Cochran to step down for a while, but there's still a whole lot of uncertainty about what will happen now that he's announced his resignation. What we do know is that GOP Gov. Phil Bryant will appoint a replacement, and there will be a special election on Nov. 6. All the candidates will run on one nonpartisan ballot, and if no one takes a majority, there will be a nonpartisan runoff three weeks later.
Multiple Republicans tell the New York Times that Bryant is likely to appoint a senator who would run for this seat in the special. One major consideration for Bryant is to pick someone who could fend off state Sen. Chris McDaniel, a tea partier who only narrowly lost to Cochran in 2014. Donald Trump and especially Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have also made it very clear they don't want McDaniel as Team Red's candidate.
If McDaniel got to Washington, he'd be a massive pain for the GOP leadership, and the former far-right radio host and neo-Confederate ally may even be weak enough to jeopardize the GOP's chances in a runoff against a Democrat. McDaniel is currently challenging GOP Sen. Roger Wicker in the regularly scheduled Senate race, but he hasn't ruled out switching to the special. McDaniel said hours after Cochran announced his resignation that, while he's still focused on running against Wicker, "all options remain on the table as we determine the best way to ensure that Mississippi elects conservatives to the United States Senate."
The big question in Washington and in Mississippi is whom Bryant will pick. McConnell and Trump tried to convince the governor to appoint himself, but Bryant definitive ruled it out on Wednesday, saying there's "something nefarious" about that kind of move. Bryant also said he doesn't want to go to Washington and wants to finish the nearly two years he has left as governor, so we can rule him out as a potential candidate. And while retiring Rep. Gregg Harper once was viewed as a likely pick, The Clarion-Ledger writes he has no interest in remaining in Congress. But the paper says that "politicos seem convinced" that Bryant's top two choices for an appointment are Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann, in part because they'd seem to have the best chance to beat McDaniel.
Reeves is a likely candidate for governor in 2019, and the paper says he's been "cool to the idea" of going to the Senate instead, though he hasn't closed the door. The issue with Hosemann, who might also run to replace Bryant, is that he'll turn 71 before Election Day, which isn't good if Bryant wants Mississippi to have someone who will be in the Senate for decades like Cochran was.
However, there are plenty of other Republicans Bryant could pick. The Clarion-Ledger writes that Agriculture and Commerce Secretary Cindy Hyde-Smith has gotten plenty of attention recently. Hyde-Smith would be the first woman to ever represent Mississippi in Congress, and she has connections throughout the state, especially in McDaniel's base in the south. They also mention House Speaker Phillip Gunn, but politicos fear he doesn't have much name recognition. Gunn also has supported removing Confederate imagery from the state flag, something McDaniel would absolutely rip him to shreds for.
The Clarion-Ledger also adds that State Sen. Michael Watson could get picked to try and deter McDaniel from even switching races. Watson backed McDaniel in 2014 and the two are allies, but he's "believed to be more temperate and pragmatic than McDaniel." Of course, this is a very difficult thing to handicap: This is essentially an election with just one voter, and Bryant could appoint someone who isn't even on the radar.
Democrats will want to run a strong candidate to take advantage of any GOP chaos, and Mike Espy immediately announced it was his "strong intention to run." Espy made history in 1986 when he became the first African American to represent the state in Congress since Reconstruction, and he was Bill Clinton's first secretary of agriculture. Espy was forced out in 1994 after he was accused of taking improperly taking gifts from businesses and lobbyists, and he was indicted in 1997 for corruption. But Espy went to trial the next year and was acquitted on all 30 charges. Espy, who is now an attorney in the state, made news when he backed GOP Gov. Haley Barbour's 2007 re-election bid, but he's largely been out of the headlines otherwise.
A few other Democrats could run. National Democrats tried to recruit Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley to challenge Wicker, and when he announced he would stay out in January, he release notably began by saying it was a "statement concerning the 2018 regular United States Senate race" (emphasis ours).
National Democrats turned to state House Minority Leader David Baria afterwards, and he did kick off a bid against Wicker. Baria didn't quite rule out switching races, but he doesn't sound excited about it. Baria put out a statement Monday saying, "I have announced that I am running for the Senate seat currently held by Roger Wicker and have been humbled by the outpouring of support that I have received. I am focused on winning the race that I have entered." Venture capitalist Howard Sherman is also running against Baria, and he hasn't returned calls about his plans; there's been no word on whether state Rep. Omeria Scott is interested in shifting to the special or not.
Finally, an independent may also be eyeing this seat. On Monday, hours before Cochran made his announcement, Vicksburg Mayor George Flaggs said he would leave the Democratic Party and become and independent, and the New York Times' Jonathan Martin says he could run.