The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MS-Sen-B: Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton, a Democrat, announced on Tuesday that he would run in the November special election. As we've written before, Shelton leads a very red city in the northern part of the state (which also happens to be Elvis Presley's birthplace), and he's described himself as being on the "very conservative end" of the Democratic Party. The Clarion-Ledger writes that Shelton wasn't recruited by national Democrats, who are waiting to see if a strong candidate emerges from this unpredictable field.
Campaign Action
And we'll know who is and isn't running before too long. On Tuesday, GOP Gov. Phil Bryant officially scheduled the special election for the final two years of now former-Sen. Thad Cochran's term, and he set the filing deadline for April 24. All the candidates will run on one officially nonpartisan ballot on Nov. 6, and in the very likely event that no one takes a majority of the vote, there will be a nonpartisan runoff on Nov. 27.
Shelton is the fourth major candidate to declare a bid. Bryant appointed state Agriculture Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith to the seat, and the Clarion-Ledger says she'd expected to be sworn in on Monday. State Sen. Chris McDaniel, a tea partier who almost beat Cochran in the 2014 primary runoff, is running to her right, and he's wasted no time pointing out Hyde-Smith was a longtime Democrat until 2010.
Former Rep. Mike Espy, a Democrat who was the first African-American to represent the state in the House since Reconstruction, is also in. The paper says that Espy, who went on to be Bill Clinton's secretary of agriculture, appears to be the "early favorite among in-state Democratic leaders and fundraisers."
Espy also released a poll from Chism Strategies on Tuesday, which was taken in the days following Hyde-Smith's appointment to the Senate. They gave him the lead with 34 percent of the vote, while Hyde-Smith edged McDaniel 27-21 for second. However, the poll doesn't seem to have included Shelton. And the race may still get more complicated: Businessman Andy Taggart, a former executive director of the state GOP, says he'll likely decide by the end of the week.
As for Cochran, he officially ended his nearly 40-year Senate career on Sunday, when his resignation became official. Cochran has long been a loyal member of the Senate GOP caucus, but he had some unusual twists and turns during his decades in public life.
Like many Mississippi Republicans of his era, Cochran grew up as a Democrat, and he later told historian Curtis Wilkie that he still supported Lyndon Johnson over Barry Goldwater in 1964 even as local white resistance to civil rights propelled Goldwater to a 87-13 win. But Cochran was a full-fledged Republican by 1968, where he headed up Richard Nixon's state campaign (Nixon took third place with just 14 percent of the vote, while segregationist George Wallace beat Hubert Humphrey 63-23).
Four years later, Cochran ran for an open House seat including Jackson and southwestern Mississippi. He defeated Democratic state Sen. Ellis Bodron 48-44, while Eddie McBride, an African-American independent, took 8 percent. Trent Lott, Cochran's future Senate colleague and rival, also won a seat that day, which made the two just the second and third Republicans to represent the state in Congress since Reconstruction.
Cochran took over 70 percent of the vote in his two re-election campaigns, and in 1978, he sought to succeed longtime Democratic Sen. James Eastland, a notorious segregationist who decided to retire. Cochran and Lott reportedly had agreed in advance that if the seat ever opened up, they would decide who would run for it. However, Cochran jumped in quickly with the support of the party establishment without talking to Lott or other up-and-comers. Lott didn't end up running, but he would have his revenge years later.
Cochran was trying to become the first Republican to hold a Senate seat in the Magnolia State since Reconstruction, but he faced a tough campaign against Democrat Maurice Dantin. But Cochran once again benefited from the presence of a black independent candidate. Charles Evers, an older brother of Civil Rights Era martyr Medgar Evers and the state's first black mayor in about a century, took 23 percent of the vote, and Cochran beat Dantin 45-32. Six years later, Cochran turned back a credible challenge from former Democratic Gov. William Winter in 1984 by a 61-39 margin, and until his 2014 primary with McDaniel, he never faced another tough election.
Unlike many other white Southern politicians, including his predecessor James Eastland, Cochran had a good relationship with his state's black voters, something that would eventually save him from political defeat decades down the road. And while he was a loyal vote for the leadership, he largely kept his head down and never was much of a fire-breathing conservative.
But while Cochran would gain plenty of power in D.C., he lost his fights against Lott, who joined him in the Senate in 1989. Cochran was elected chair of the party conference in 1990, the number-three spot in the leadership. But in 1994, Lott cut in line and tried to unseat Wyoming's Alan Simpson as whip. Cochran backed Simpson, but Lott won anyway, which gave him a more powerful post in the Senate over his senior colleague.
Two years later, after Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole resigned to focus on his unsuccessful presidential campaign, the two Mississippi senators competed to lead the caucus. Lott, who already had a reputation as a firebrand, was more popular with his colleagues than the laid-back Cochran, and he won 44 to eight.
Cochran never did achieve the same highs as Lott, but he also never hit his lows. In 2002, Lott gave up his leadership post after he praised South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond's infamous 1948 segregationist presidential bid. A little more than two years later, Cochran became chair of the powerful Appropriations Committee, and he used his influence to secure disaster funding for his state after Hurricane Katrina. Lott also managed to bring plenty of non-disaster money to Mississippi over the years, which pissed off his intra-party critics.
Cochran spent much of 2007 keeping people guessing if he'd seek another term. But he announced in November he'd run again, and he faced no serious opposition afterwards. A few weeks later Lott, who was once again the GOP whip, decided to resign, and he soon became a lobbyist; Cochran got along far better with Roger Wicker, Lott's replacement.
Cochran repeated the same will-he-or-won't he routine in 2013, but this time, it had consequences. Chris McDaniel, a state senator close to the tea party, announced in October that he would run regardless of what Cochran did, and he immediately earned endorsements from anti-establishment groups who viewed the incumbent as the embodiment of the leadership and pork barrel politics that they hated. Cochran didn't take the hint and decided to run again, but he started the campaign with little money. He also never seemed to recognize what direction his party was heading in, and he didn't have the fire-in-the-belly conservatism that primary voters craved.
The state GOP establishment and the powerful U.S. Chamber of Commerce backed the senator in the incredibly nasty campaign, and Lott even did ads for his old foe. However, McDaniel outpaced Cochran by about 1,400 votes in the primary. A minor third candidate prevented McDaniel from winning the majority he needed to avoid a runoff, but with just three weeks to go before the runoff, Cochran looked doomed. Conventional wisdom held that turnout would be lower for round two, and that McDaniel's more excited and ultra-conservative base would be the ones who would show up.
But Cochran ended up defying the odds and winning 51-49. The senator encouraged African-Americans to vote in the GOP runoff, a very unusual tactic in any Republican race. But Cochran's long ties to the community and McDaniel's neo-Confederate supporters helped him make the argument, and black voters played the decisive role in securing him a final term. McDaniel and his allies never accepted his defeat, insisting that Democratic voters had illegally voted in the GOP primary and demanding a new election; clearly, that did not happen. But Cochran's health was not good during his final years in office, and last month, he confirmed he would step down.
1Q Fundraising
Be sure to keep our Senate fundraising roundup handy, since we update that as new numbers come in. As per usual, we'll have a House roundup after reports are due at the FEC on April 15.
● TX-Sen: Beto O'Rourke (D): $6.7 million raised
● CT-Gov: Erin Stewart (R): $106,000 raised (in two months)
● OR-Gov: Kate Brown (D-inc): $989,000 raised, $3.5 million cash-on-hand; Knute Buehler (R): $750,000 raised, $2 million cash-on-hand
● PA-Gov: Tom Wolf (D-inc): $5 million raised, $14.7 million cash-on-hand
● AR-02: Paul Spencer (D): $100,000 raised, $120,000 cash-on-hand
● FL-16: Vern Buchanan (R-inc): $470,000 raised $2.5 million cash-on-hand
● NJ-03: Andy Kim (D): $530,000 raised, $820,000 cash-on-hand
● NY-22: Anthony Brindisi (D): $510,000 raised; $800,000 cash-on-hand
● OH-01: Aftab Pureval (D): $660,000 raised (in eight weeks)
● OH-12: John Russell (D): $100,000 raised; Tim Kane (R): $400,000 raised
● TX-07: Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D): $500,000 raised ($350,000 since the May 7 primary), $400,000 cash-on-hand
We also have two items from the last Digest we need to correct. In FL-27, Democrat David Richardson's entire $411,000 haul for the quarter was from donors, and there was no self-funding (something we incorrectly suggested might have been the case). In WA-05, Democrat Lisa Brown raised $600,000 for the quarter rather than the $400,000 figure we incorrectly cited.
Senate
● IN-Sen: Rep. Luke Messer is out with another ad in the GOP primary, where he highlights his upbringing by a single mother and says he proudly backs the "Trump agenda" in Congress. Meanwhile, former state Rep. Mike Braun debuted another ad of his own, which touts his conservative bona fides and Christian values.
In his own latest ad, meanwhile, Rep. Todd Rokita literally puts on his "Make America Great Again" hat and calls his rivals "Republicans in name only." He blasts Braun for having voted in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary and supposedly being a "lifelong Democrat," while he hits Messer for having opposed Trump during the 2016 nomination contest.
● NJ-Sen: Candidate filing closed on Monday for New Jersey's June 5 primary, and the state has an unofficial list of candidates available here. Note that candidates can challenge one another's petitions, so it's possible that some of the people listed won't make it to June.
Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez is seeking re-election in this very blue state, and he faces an expensive race with Republican Bob Hugin, who recently stepped down as a top executive at the pharmaceutical company Celgene. Menendez was indicted in 2015 for corruption, and his trial ended last year in a hung jury; the Justice Department announced months later that they were dropping their case. Hugin and his allies are hoping that voters aren't ready to turn the corner, and he recently launched a TV spot arguing that Menendez is still "disgraced." Neither candidate faces any serious primary opposition.
Hugin is very wealthy and willing to pour millions into his campaign, but he may just not have enough material to work with. The only poll we've seen was a March Quinnipiac poll that gave Menendez a huge 49-32 lead, and the senator also posted a positive 46-39 approval rating. Hugin also has his own vulnerabilities from his time as a pharmaceutical executive. Celgene notably has "aggressively" raised prices for cancer drugs, though Hugin defended the company for saving lives and creating jobs. Celgene also paid $280 million to settle a lawsuit last year alleging it had filed false claims with Medicare and used a re-purposed leprosy drug for unapproved cancer treatments.
Gubernatorial
● FL-Gov: Rep. Ron DeSantis released a poll from North Star Opinion Research, which gives him a 21-19 lead over state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam in the Republican primary. The poll writeup says no other candidate tops 6 percent, which likely refers to state House Speaker Richard Corcoran, who hasn't officially jumped into the race yet. Polling in this contest has been relatively infrequent. However, surveys have typically shown similar results with high shares of voters having yet to make up their mind ahead of the late August primary.
Meanwhile, a super PAC called the National Liberty Federation has bought $371,000 for TV and radio ads attacking DeSantis. Their spots reportedly criticize him for at one point living in a condo owned by two defense contractors who were major campaign donors, arguing he's part of the corruption problem in Washington.
● NV-Gov: Democrat Steve Sisolak, who chairs the Clark County Commission, has aired another TV ad ahead of the June 12 primary. The spot features Sisolak speaking to the camera and taking credit for bringing the new National Hockey League team the Golden Knights to Las Vegas; the Golden Knights recently won their regional division championship in their inaugural season.
● OH-Gov: State Attorney General Mike DeWine launched a new $1 million ad buy that includes TV and digital. The TV spot is a minute-long segment features DeWine's wife Fran DeWine narrating and telling about their family, including the tragedy of losing their daughter Becky at age 22 in a car accident. The second half of the ad focuses on how DeWine's appreciation of family has given him a better perspective on how he can protect others' families as attorney general and governor. It touts DeWine's record prosecuting criminals and holding drug companies responsible for the opioid epidemic, while saying vaguely that he'll improve education if elected.
Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor has—often comically—tried to distance herself from Gov. John Kasich, who is unpopular with the GOP base, but Kasich recently said, "I'm not going to un-endorse her." A few months ago, Taylor had even claimed that, "Kasich is endorsing DeWine," which of course was utterly untrue. Taylor likely wishes she could whitewash her ties to the governor with whom she ran on a ticket in her last two elections, but that may be impossible to do now regardless of what Kasich says.
● SC-Gov: Wealthy businessman John Warren is up with his first TV spot ahead of the June 12 GOP primary. It features lots of quick shots of Warren as the narrator hits basically all the conservative talking points aside from fealty to Trump.
● SD-Gov: Candidate filing closed last week for South Dakota's June 5 primary, and the state has a list of candidates available here. Note that there will be an Aug. 14 runoff for contests where no one takes more than 35 percent of the vote in June.
GOP Gov. Dennis Daugaard is termed-out of office, and two well-established Republicans are dueling to succeed him. Marty Jackley has served as state attorney general since 2009, while Rep. Kristi Noem has represented the entire state in the House since 2011. The one poll we've seen was a February survey from the GOP firm Moore Information that wasn't done on behalf of either candidate, and they gave Noem a 40-35 lead. Noem also held a $2.1 million to $1.5 million cash-on-hand edge at the end of 2017.
The last time a Democrat won the governor's office was in 1974, but state Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton is hoping to break that long losing streak. And Sutton, who faces no primary opposition, does have an interesting profile. He was a well-known rodeo rider in college (in a 2013 profile at the Argus Leader, David Montgomery described him as "arguably the greatest rodeo rider the University of Wyoming had seen"), and he aimed to become a professional. However, just before graduation, Sutton was paralyzed after the horse he was riding threw him into a wall. Sutton instead became an investment banker, and while he remains in a wheelchair, he still is able to ride horses.
Sutton has a very tough job ahead of him in this 62-32 Trump state, but he has won on some very red turf before. During the 2010 GOP wave, he managed to win a conservative state Senate seat, and he's continued to hold it. (Sutton's grandfather also represented south central South Dakota in the legislature in the 1970s.) Sutton held on 59.5-40.5 in 2012 even as Mitt Romney was carrying his district 66-33. He also had no opposition over the following two cycles, even though Donald Trump won his district 74-22. He also had $664,000 on-hand at the end of 2017, much less than either of his rivals, but possibly enough to run a credible campaign.
House
● CO-05: Over the weekend, state Sen. Owen Hill earned a spot on the June 26 GOP primary ballot by winning the party convention. The state has verified that Hill's two main intra-party rivals, Rep. Doug Lamborn and El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn (who was the party's 2016 Senate nominee), collected enough signatures to also be on the ballot. Lamborn decided to skip the convention, which isn't a surprise since he did very badly at the party assembly in 2016. Glenn had not announced by last week if he would be at the convention, and there are no reports of anyone but Hill competing there. This Colorado Springs seat backed Trump 57-33.
● CT-05: It's been just a day since Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty dropped her re-election bid over her inadequate handling of an abusive aide, but the field to replace her is already beginning to take shape. On the Democratic side, former Simsbury First Selectman Mary Glassman has already jumped into the race. Glassman had previously run for lieutenant governor twice, but she had the misfortune of winning the primary in 2006, when the Democratic ticket lost badly to GOP Gov. Jodi Rell, and losing the primary in 2010, when Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy went on to win the general election (Connecticut holds separate primaries for governor and lieutenant governor, while the winners run on a joint ticket in the general election).
Meanwhile, state Rep. Michelle Cook said she was considering a campaign of her own. The Hartford Courant also mentioned Waterbury Mayor Neil O'Leary, although O'Leary has yet to express any interest himself. However, former state Sen. Dante Bartolomeo and state Rep. Linz Linehan both said they won't join the race, as did state Rep. Hilda Santiago, while 2012 primary candidate Dan Roberti reportedly also won't run.
Esty's surprise scandal and retirement have left Republicans with a much better shot at this seat, although it will still likely be an uphill battle for the GOP in this 50-46 Clinton, 54-45 Obama district. Former one-term Meriden Mayor Manny Santos has been running for a while, but had struggled to gain any traction running against Esty. Former state Rep. Dan Carter, who was the GOP's 2016 Senate nominee, recently said he was considering it, while state Rep. William Petit said through a spokesperson that he was disinclined, which isn't quite a "no."
State Sen. Eric Berthel was mentioned as a possible candidate, while the Courant floated the names of several other Republicans, including state Sen. Kevin Witkos, state Rep. Rob Sampson, 2016 nominee and former Sherman First Selectman Clay Cope, and wealthy businessman Mark Greenberg, who has lost several campaigns for this seat. However, it's unclear if any of them is interested. Finally, New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart and Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton both said they would remain in the race for governor.
● FL-16: Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan is putting $128,000 behind his first TV ad, which is aimed at the eastern Hillsborough County voters added to his 16th District thanks to court-ordered 2015 redistricting. The minute-long spot details his working-class upbringing and how he achieved success in business, while it offers several platitudes about how he's supposedly a leader in Congress.
● IN-02: Healthcare executive Mel Hall has launched his first ad in the Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Jackie Walorski. His minute-long spot talks about his biography, which includes growing up on an Indiana farm, serving as a minister in "inner-city Detroit," and later becoming CEO of a healthcare-related company. Hall says he'll fight for affordable health care, a living wage, and the middle class.
● KY-06: Retired Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath launched her latest ad in the Democratic primary. McGrath points to her military record as a pilot, where she flew 89 combat missions, and she says her 90th mission is running for Congress. But McGrath segues into relating to the average Kentuckian by saying sometimes her "toughest mission" is taking care of her kids. The commercial features humorous footage of her trying to manage three young children at the pediatrician's office simultaneously, while in a voiceover McGrath calls health care a right and promises to stand up to anyone who tries to repeal the Affordable Care Act, even Trump.
Meanwhile, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray has also debuted his first Democratic primary ads. The first spot features the mayor making what it calls "Grayisms," where he uses folksy sayings to argue he doesn't speak the dishonest language of Washington. The second ad showcases Gray speaking to the camera to bemoan partisan squabbling, saying he'll put aside party and do what's best for Kentucky.
● NC-03: A mystery group called the Conservative Leadership Alliance has launched a new TV and digital ad attacking GOP Rep. Walter Jones, saying he opposed Trump more than any other Republican in Congress, including on repealing Obamacare and "middle class tax cuts." Jones has long been a self-described "thorn" in the side (well, he actually said "ass") of GOP leadership, and he faces yet another primary challenge this year.
CLA's spot doesn't express support for either of Jones' opponents, since it's one of those "call Congressman So-and-so and tell him to get with the picture!" ads. That also means that CLA doesn't have to reveal how much its spending, though last year, the group shelled out over half a million bucks in unsuccessfully backing Tommy Pope over Ralph Norman in the GOP primary for the special election in South Carolina's 5th Congressional District.
Meanwhile, we have a new poll of the race—our first ever—courtesy of the conservative think-tank Civitas and conducted by an arm of SurveyUSA. The poll finds Jones leading his strongest rival, Craven County Commissioner Scott Dacey, 37-28, while Marine veteran Phil Law, who also ran against Jones in 2016, is in third place with 15 percent. Last year, North Carolina Republicans changed state law to require runoffs only if the leading primary candidate fails to clear 30 percent, a reduction from the previous threshold of 40 percent. Right now, that's working very much in Jones' favor, though there's still five weeks until the May 8 primary.
● NH-01: It's rare to see a sitting governor endorse a congressional candidate in another state, but late last week, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy gave his backing to Levi Sanders, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for New Hampshire's open 1st Congressional District. It's payback for the endorsement that Sanders, the son of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, gave to Murphy last year during the Garden State's Democratic primary, when Murphy, as The Observer's Christian Hetrick notes, was eager to highlight his progressive credentials and "put a little space" between his campaign and his long career at Goldman Sachs. Thanks to his time on Wall Street, though, Murphy is quite wealthy and well-connected, so if he has a mind to, he could probably help Sanders a fair bit. Too bad Sanders is just awful.
● NJ-02: GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo surprised the political world when he decided to retire from this coastal South Jersey seat. While this district swung from 54-45 Obama to 51-46 Trump, it's one of Team Blue's top pickup opportunities in the nation.
National Democrats unsuccessfully spent every cycle since 2006 trying to convince state Sen. Jeff Van Drew to challenge LoBiondo, but he quickly entered the race after the incumbent called it a career. The DCCC has added Van Drew to their Red to Blue list for top candidates, but more importantly, the local party leaders are in his corner.
Three Democrats filed to take on Van Drew in June: teacher Tanzie Youngblood; Will Cunningham, a former aide to Sen. Cory Booker; and farmer Nathan Kleinman, an Occupy Wall Street activist who failed to make the ballot for a 2012 race in Pennsylvania. Van Drew is one of the more conservative Democrats in the legislature, and his perfect score from the NRA has particularly rankled his progressive detractors.
However, it's going to be very tough for any of these three Democrats to actually beat Van Drew. With three candidates on the ballot and none of them beginning with much name recognition, it's easy to see whatever anti-Van Drew vote there is being split. But perhaps his biggest advantage is that he has the organization line in all eight counties in the district. That's a huge asset in New Jersey because endorsed candidates appear in a separate column on the ballot along with other party endorsees, a big deal in a state where party machines are still powerful.
Republicans aren't going to want to give up this seat without a fight, and party leaders have largely consolidated behind wealthy engineer Hirsh Singh. Singh ran for governor in 2017 and took just 10 percent of the vote, but he reportedly told local Republicans that he'd use $2 million of his own money for his congressional campaign. Singh recently earned the party organization line in Atlantic County, which makes up about 40 percent of the primary vote, as well as Ocean, which has about 10 percent of the vote.
But while LoBiondo spent years cultivating a moderate image, Singh doesn't seem to be in a hurry to do the same. He notably declared in a recent speech that he was a pro-Trump conservative, and he declared that Democrats "have a stranglehold on too many minorities because they come here and hear we're racist."
Four other Republicans filed, but they don't look like they'll have the institutional support to beat Singh. Former Assemblyman Sam Fiocchi, who lost re-election in a tight race 2013 after just one term, has the line in Cape May, which makes up about 20 percent of the primary vote. Engineer Brian Fitzherbert and former FBI agent Robert Turkavage, a perennial candidate, also have lines in smaller counties. Rounding out the primary field is Seth Grossman, a former Atlantic County freeholder who lost the 2013 primary for governor to incumbent Chris Christie 92-8.
● NJ-03: While GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur was re-elected without much trouble last cycle, 2018 is looking like a much tougher fight for him. MacArthur spent his first term portraying himself as a moderate, but he earned infamy last year when he helped craft a deal with the far-right Freedom Caucus that allowed the House to pass a bill that would repeal Obamacare—legislation that had been on death's door before MacArthur's intervention. MacArthur also was the one member of the state's delegation to back the leadership's tax bill, even though it harmed New Jersey more than most other states.
MacArthur faces a challenge from national-security expert Andy Kim, who was the National Security Council's direct for Iraq under Obama and advised Gen. David Petraeus in Afghanistan. Kim faces no primary opposition, and the DCCC added him to their Red to Blue list in February.
However, MacArthur is going to be very tough to beat. This South Jersey seat swung from 52-47 Obama to 51-45 Trump, and this area has long favored the GOP down the ballot. And while Kim has been a strong fundraiser, MacArthur is incredibly wealthy (Roll Call estimates his net worth is $30 million), and he won't need to worry about being outspent. This seat includes the costly New York City and Philadelphia media markets, so running ads across the district is not cheap.
● NJ-05: Democrat Josh Gottheimer unseated far-right GOP Rep. Scott Garrett 51-47 in 2016 as Trump was narrowly carrying this North Jersey seat 49-48, and he looked like he'd be a top Republican target at the start of the cycle. However, neither of his would-be Republican foes is exactly the national GOP’s ideal guy.
The better-known candidate is Steve Lonegan, a former mayor of the small borough of Bogota. Lonegan does have a following among movement conservatives, but he's badly lost various bids for House, Senate, and governor over the years. Donald Trump dubbed Lonegan, who tried to deny him the GOP nomination at the 2016 convention, a "loser. ... Always been a nasty guy. He loses. He's a loser." For once in his miserable life, Trump was not wrong: Lonegan was last seen in 2014 losing a primary for the 3rd Congressional District at the other side of the state 60-40 to now-Rep. Tom MacArthur.
The other Republican in the running is attorney John McCann, but he has his own enemies. McCann is the longtime right-hand man to Bergen County Sheriff Michael Saudino, but Saudino switched to the Democratic Party a few years ago. The state New Jersey State Policemen's Benevolent Association also has it out for McCann, whom they blame for a merger that resulted in several layoffs and demotions.
McCann's allies control the county party in Bergen, which makes up 72 percent of this competitive seat, and they're going to give him the all-important county organization line: Lonegan has responded by blasting McCann and county chairman Paul DiGaetano as "in bed with the Democrats." But McCann, who has the support of former Trump hanger-on Sebastian Gorka, is no moderate himself. At the end of December, Lonegan had a $1 million to $129,000 cash-on-hand edge; the vast majority of the money each Republican has brought in has come from his own wallet, but Lonegan's wallet was obviously a lot fatter.
Gottheimer, who is a strong fundraiser, is probably enjoying this fight, and when the dust settles, national Republicans may decide that they should send their money to other races. It doesn't help Team Red that this seat is located in the expensive New York City media market, so they'd be risking a lot if they wanted to wade in here.
● NJ-07: GOP Rep. Leonard Lance is accustomed to easy re-elections, but national Democrats got interested after his seat went from 52-46 Romney to 49-48 Clinton. Several candidates were running in the Democratic primary at the start of the year, but several of them dropped out after former State Department official Tom Malinowski raised an impressive amount of money in his opening fundraising quarter and began picking up important county organization lines.
Malinowski, who now has the lines in all six counties, has just two primary foes left. Social worker Peter Jacob, who lost to Lance 54-43 in 2016, is trying to appeal to Bernie Sanders supporters, though he struggled with fundraising in 2017. The other candidate is attorney Goutam Jois (who won the title of "America's Funniest Attorney" in 2012 at the Gotham Comedy Club). It would be a huge surprise if either of them overcame Malinowski's organizational advantages and won the Democratic nod.
Lance himself may need to keep one eye on his primary. The congressman, who has portrayed himself as a moderate, only won 54 percent of the vote in 2014 and 2016 against weak opponents. This time, has two opponents: physician Raafat Barsoom, who is running as a pro-Trump conservative, and Lindsay Brown, who is running as a progressive Republican for some reason. It's very unlikely will actually lose renomination, but after his last two weak performances, we could see him turning in another disappointing showing.
● NJ-08: While it looked like a nasty war between various factions of the Hudson County Democratic Party would spill over into this primary, Rep. Albio Sires has no primary opponent in this safely blue seat. Hudson County Freeholder Tilo Rivas reportedly was collecting signatures for a possible bid, but he didn't file in the end.
● NJ-11: We had a late development in the GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen. Wealthy businessman Peter DeNeufville jumped in on Monday, the final day of candidate filing; DeNeufville joins Assemblyman Jay Webber, investment banker and Army Reserve JAG officer Antony Ghee, and two little-known candidates in the contest.
This ancestrally red North Jersey seat moved from 52-47 Romney to just 49-48 Trump, and whoever emerges from the GOP primary will be in for a tough general election. Webber is an ardent conservative and vocal Trump supporter, and he could have trouble in November if there's a backlash against the White House.
But Ghee, who only switched his party affiliation from unaffiliated to Republican two days before he entered the primary, could have the opposite issue. Ghee didn't help his case with Trump fans when he refused to say at a party event whom he'd voted for in the last three presidential elections, saying that as a solider, "It doesn't matter who your president is, we want every president to succeed, whether it's President Trump, whether it's President Obama, President Bush, President Clinton. I want them to succeed, period." Webber quickly pounded and argued that Ghee was basically saying he'd backed Obama and Clinton.
DeNeufville only just got into the race, so we'll need to see how he shakes out. DeNeufville runs a private equity firm and was a member of former Gov. Chris Christie's presidential fundraising team, so he may have access to plenty of money. But Christie is unpopular even with his fellow Republicans, so that kind of biography may not be such as asset to him.
Geography will likely play a key role in this contest. Ghee has the organization line in Essex and Passaic Counties, but they only make up a combined one-third of the GOP primary vote. Webber has a base in Morris County, which will make up about 60 percent of the vote, but that county doesn't have an organization line. (The rest of the seat is in Sussex, which also has no line.) DeNeufville also hails from Morris, though unlike Webber, he's never held office there. Webber is counting on a strong performance at home, but DeNeufville could complicate things.
The Democratic contest is looking a lot less competitive. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and federal prosecutor, was running a strong race against Frelinghuysen before he retired, and she has all the county organization lines in the district. Sherrill is also on the DCCC's Red to Blue list, and she recently picked up an endorsement from former Vice President Joe Biden. Her main primary foe looks to be businesswoman Tamara Harris, who has largely been self-funding her campaign though 2017. One other Democrat also filed.
● NV-04: On Tuesday, VoteVets endorsed state Sen. Pat Spearman, who served in the Army for 29 years before retiring with the rank of lieutenant colonel, for Nevada's open 4th Congressional District. Though the endorsement doesn't mention it, Spearman is a lesbian, meaning that she served for decades under the military's cruel policies toward gay members, including "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." Spearman faces three other notable candidates in the June 12 Democratic primary, including former Rep. Stephen Horsford.
● SC-07: We missed this at the time, but in early March, Democratic state Rep. Robert Williams launched a bid against GOP Rep. Tom Rice. Williams, who is also seeking re-election to his safely blue seat (South Carolina allows candidates to seek multiple offices at the same time), is also an Iraq War veteran. Three other Democrats are also running in the June primary.
This seat, which includes Florence and Myrtle Beach, went from 55-44 Romney to 58-39 Trump, and it's very much an uphill climb for Team Blue. Democrats had some hopes of going after Rice in 2012 when this seat was first drawn, but it fell off the big board after a very flawed candidate won the nomination. Rice ended 2017 with just shy of $1 million in the bank, so he will have the resources to defend himself if need be.
● SD-AL: Three Republicans are competing to succeed Rep. Kristi Noem as South Dakota's only House member. Former Public Service Commissioner Dusty Johnson is also Gov. Dennis Daugaard's former chief of staff, and he has his old boss' endorsement. Secretary of State Shantel Krebs has the backing of Kris Kobach, her infamous counterpart in Kansas, though it's not clear how much influence he has with primary voters here. Johnson held a $424,000 to $362,000 cash-on-hand edge at the end of 2017.
State Sen. Neal Tapio entered the primary about a year after his two rivals, but he's pledged to spend $300,000 of his own money. Tapio, who was Trump's 2016 state director, has also picked fights with the party establishment, declaring as he launched his bid that if Daugaard and Sen. John Thune "had their way, Donald Trump would have been off the Republican ticket and Hillary Clinton would be our president today, God help us." Tapio also made national news earlier this year when he disrupted an interfaith gathering at the state capitol and gave a speech calling for banning Muslims from traveling to the United States and calling interfaith dialogue "part of a war, it's a silent part, it's a part of a way of taking away the Christian fabric of our nation."
Democrats held this seat until Noem's narrow 2010 win, but at 62-32 Trump, it will be tough to flip it back. Still, Team Blue does have a notable candidate in former state court judge Tim Bjorkman, who faces no primary opposition. However, national Democrats don't appear to have taken a serious interest in this race yet.
● TX-32: Democratic Collin Allred, the former NFL lineback turned civil rights lawyer, just received an endorsement from San Antonio Rep. Joaquin Castro ahead of his May primary runoff with former U.S. Agriculture Department official Lillian Salerno. Allred also recently earned the backing of the DCCC after leading Salerno 39-18 in the first round.
● DCCC: The DCCC released a batch of a dozen in-house polls of GOP-held districts on Tuesday, though a handful had previously been made public and a number of other "new" surveys were in the field quite a while ago. Several, however, were conducted within the last month, and we present those below:
FL-26: Debbie Mucarsel Powell (D): 40, Carlos Curbelo (R-inc): 45
NY-22: Anthony Brindisi (D): 50, Claudia Tenney (R-inc): 44
VA-10: "Named Democrat": 46, Barbara Comstock (R-inc): 43
WA-08: "Named Democrat": 44, Dino Rossi (R): 46
As the D-Trip's memo explains, in those "Named Democrat" matchup, "at least one Democratic candidate was tested using their name." In other words, it's not a generic candidate—we're just not allowed to know which real one the DCCC is choosing to feature. The two races above both feature competitive primaries, so presumably the committee doesn't want to give off the appearance of taking sides (at least, not yet).
