The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● WV-Sen: New Jersey-based Monmouth University has just published the first independent poll of the West Virginia Senate race, and it has good numbers for Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin no matter how you slice it. The survey finds Manchin beating Republican Joe Morrisey by anywhere from 7 to 11 points, depending on the model used and whether disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship is included as a third-party candidate.
However, we still need to explain what all these models mean. Monmouth offered up no fewer than three different portraits of the race, just as it has with other recent polls, which is an interesting way to disclose the uncertainty inherent in any polling model but unlikely to leave us with much clarity. The first of these models, the school explains, reflects what it calls "potential voters," which includes anyone who has voted in at least one primary or general election between 2010 and 2016, or first registered to vote in January of 2016 or later—a screen that captures 73 percent of registered voters.
The others Monmouth describes as "likely voter" models, one reflecting historical midterm turnout and a third that attempts to forecast "a turnout surge in areas where Democrats tend to perform more strongly"—in other words, what a Democratic wave (or at least, a strong Democratic year) might look like. These tighter screens each reflect about 60 percent of registered voters.
Ultimately, though, it doesn't make too much difference which model Monmouth uses. In a two-way race with Morrisey, Manchin leads 49-42 among potential voters, 50-43 with historical midterm turnout, and 51-42 under the "Democratic surge" model. These various sets of numbers aren't too different from a mid-May internal poll for Manchin that had him ahead 47-40. Manchin's allies at the DSCC also released a poll last month giving him a wider 52-40 lead. The only GOP poll we've seen here, by contrast, was a survey taken just after the early May primary that found Morrisey ahead 46-44.
None of those matchups included Blankenship, who finished third in the GOP primary but still claims he's waging a third-party bid in the general election (even though it seems like West Virginia law may bar him from doing so). Monmouth, however, did test Blankenship under the Constitution Party line, and while he doesn't register much, he does hurt Morrisey a bit.
Manchin leads his Republican opponent 48-39 with potential voters, while Blankenship manages just 4 percent of the vote. Similarly, Manchin beats Morrisey 49-40 and 50-39 under the historical midterm turnout and Democratic surge models, respectively, while Blankenship grabs a mere 2 percent in each. In other words, with Blankenship in the race, Manchin's margin in every matchup is 2 points wider than without him. If Monmouth is accurate, however, Morrisey is in a tough spot even if Blankeship doesn't appear on the ballot.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Local GOP pollster OH Predictive Insights' newest poll of the late August GOP primary gives Rep. Martha McSally a 39-25 lead over former state Sen. Kelli Ward, with disgraced former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio bringing up the rear at 14. That's a big shift from April when they had Ward leading McSally 36-27, while Arpaio was at 22. The only other primary poll we've seen in months was a late May McSally internal that gave her a 42-25 lead over Arpaio while Ward took 23.
● CA-Sen, CA-Gov: The Los Angeles Times and University of Southern California are out with the first poll of California's general elections. In the all-Democratic Senate race, they find Sen. Dianne Feinstein leading state Sen. Kevin de Leon 36-18, with 46 percent undecided; Feinstein led de Leon 44-12 in the June 5 top-two primary. In the race for governor, they unsurprisingly have Democrat Gavin Newsom leading Republican John Cox 45-28.
● IN-Sen: Republican Mike Braun is up another TV spot where he once again says he treated his employees at his business well. Braun also echoes a recent ad from his allies at the Senate Leadership Fund when he declares that "unlike Sen. Joe Donnelly's family, we'd never send jobs to Mexico." As we recently wrote, Donnelly has long maintained, going back to his first successful bid for Congress in 2006, that he hasn't had an active role in the family business since 1997.
● WI-Sen: Marquette gives us our first general election poll here in months, and they give Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin a clear lead against both her prospective GOP foes. Baldwin leads businessman Kevin Nicholson 50-39, and she has a similar 49-40 edge against state Sen. Leah Vukmir. Marquette also took a look at the GOP primary, but their sample of 264 voters is below the 300 minimum we require to include in the Digest.
Gubernatorial
● FL-Gov: Former Rep. Gwen Graham is out with her second TV ad ahead of the late August Democratic primary. The narrator reminds the audience that Graham's father, former Gov. Bob Graham, expanded health care "from infants to the elderly." Gwen Graham then hits the GOP legislature for refusing to take Medicaid expansion, and pledges to do it as governor. Florida Politics says that both her ads are only running in Tampa Bay and Orlando, which together cover about 45 percent of the state.
● ME-Gov: Right as we were putting the Digest to bed, election officials in Maine declared that state Attorney General Janet Mills had won the instant runoff in the Democratic primary for governor, beating businessman Adam Cote 54-46 in the final round. She'll face Republican businessman Shawn Moody in the fall. We'll have more on this first-of-its-kind election in the next Digest.
● OK-Gov: Wealthy businessman Kevin Stitt is out with a new spot ahead of next week's crowded GOP primary, where he promotes himself as the only candidate who isn't a career politician and argues that voters unhappy with the state's current path of "wasted tax dollars and letting our students down" should go for him.
We haven't had any polls here over the last month, but new campaign finance reports show that Stitt has outspent his many rivals in the homestretch of the campaign. Stitt, who has self-funded much of his campaign, spent $2.4 million from April 1 through June 11, a bit ahead of the $1.8 million that Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb deployed during this period. Former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett expended $894,000, while wealthy former U.S. Attorney Gary Richardson spent a considerably smaller $416,000. Former state Rep. Dan Fisher spent just shy of $100,000, while state Auditor Gary Jones dropped only $41,000.
There would be an August runoff in the very likely event that no one takes a majority, but it's anyone's guess who would be in it. A late May Sooner Poll showed Lamb taking first with 23, while Cornett led Stitt 20-14 for second. Richardson, who only took 3 percent in that poll, responded with his own survey that found Lamb at 20 and Stitt at 17, while Richardson and Cornett each were close behind at 13. Whomever emerges with the GOP nod this summer will likely face former Attorney General Drew Edmondson, the heavy favorite to win the Democratic primary next week.
● SC-Gov: Donald Trump and Mike Pence have announced that they'll each be stumping for Gov. Henry McMaster ahead of his Tuesday GOP primary runoff showdown with wealthy businessman John Warren. Pence will drop by Saturday, while Trump will visit on Election Day eve.
● WI-Gov: Marquette's new poll takes a look at both the August Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor and hypothetical general election matchups against Republican incumbent Scott Walker, whom they find leading most of the Democrats by small margins.
In the primary portion of the poll, which featured a sample of 318 voters, Marquette finds state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers far ahead of his many rivals with 25 percent of the vote, while everyone else is in single digits. Three candidates take second with 7 percent each: former party chair Matt Flynn, campaign finance reform activist Mike McCabe, and Madison Mayor Paul Soglin. None of the other candidates—six of 'em, for a grand total of 10—takes more than 5 percent, and a 34 percent plurality of voters are undecided.
One of those bringing up the rear is former state Rep. Kelda Helen Roys, who sits at a mere 2 percent. However, Wednesday also brought her some much better news when EMILY's List endorsed her. Roys is one of two women in the race, but the other, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, has a wobbly record on reproductive rights.
In the general election, Walker earns anywhere from 44 to 49 percent of the vote, while his Democrat foes take between 36 and 44. Walker edges Evers 48-44 and holds a 48-40 lead over Roys, though his closest matchup comes against McCabe, whom he beats just 44-42. The only other recent general election poll we've seen was a May survey for Evers that gave him a 49-45 lead over the governor, though he did not release results testing Walker against any other Democrats.
However, one thing to note is that Marquette divided up its sample in a somewhat unusual way. They asked all 800 respondents about hypothetical Walker vs. Evers and Walker vs. Roys matchups, but they then split the remaining eight pairings in half, so that each responded was only asked about five total gubernatorial head-to-heads. That makes it somewhat more difficult to compare the results for candidates like McCabe, who weren't presented to the full panel, and the related margins of error are higher.
House
● AZ-02: Late on Tuesday, a state court judge rejected a challenge to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick's candidacy for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, ruling that the former congresswoman is in fact a resident of Tucson, as she had said on her nominating petitions. Kirkpatrick's main rival in the August primary, former state Rep. Matt Heinz, had filed a lawsuit charging that Kirkpatrick actually lives in Phoenix, which is far from the 2nd District but is close to the 1st, which Kirkpatrick represented until her unsuccessful Senate bid in 2016.
While congressional candidates aren't required to live in the districts they're seeking to represent, Heinz had argued that Kirkpatrick misled voters by listing on her petitions an address in Tucson, which is the main city in the 2nd District. However, the judge hearing the case disagreed and ruled that Kirkpatrick can remain on the ballot, though an appeal is possible. Ironically, Heinz himself lives in a part of Tucson that's actually in the 3rd District.
● CA-48: Orange County counted most of its remaining ballots on Tuesday evening from the June 5 top-two primary, and real estate company owner Harley Rouda was left holding a 69-vote edge over biologist and fellow Democrat Hans Keirstead in contest to take on GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. There are still some uncounted ballots, but Orange County Registrar of Voters Neal Kelly says only a few hundred of them are in the 48th District. The county is scheduled to finish its count Saturday and certify the results on Monday.
Keirstead, who was leading from the day after Election Day until Monday, has not conceded defeat, nor has he ruled out seeking a recount. Under state law, any candidate can pay for a recount, which Kelly estimates would take 15 to 30 days to conduct at $8,000 to $10,000 per day.
● IL-06: GOP Rep. Peter Roskam's first ad, which Politico recently reported was running on cable for $165,000, is now available. A local man named David Rash, who is shown getting around in his wheelchair, tells the audience that "some in Congress wanted to weaken the Americans with Disabilities Act," which would have made it tougher for people like him to get access to public spaces. Rash praises Roskam for listening when he reached out and opposing his own party to deliver.
● ND-AL: Mason-Dixon's new survey gives Republican Kelly Armstrong a 46-35 lead over Democrat Mac Schneider in the open-seat race for this statewide House seat; this same sample had GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer ahead 48-44 against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. While both parties are planning to spend plenty of money in the Senate race, no major outside groups have reserved airtime for the House race.
● NY-11: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently went up with a spot for Rep. Dan Donovan ahead of next week's GOP primary, and we now know the size of the buy was $350,000.
● NY-19: U.S. Agency for International Development official Erin Collier is out with the only poll we've seen of next week's Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. John Faso. The Change Research survey, which was done over the weekend, gives attorney Antonio Delgado the lead with 21 percent, while businessman Brian Flynn and Army veteran Pat Ryan each are in second with 14 percent. Former diplomat Jeff Beals takes 9, while Collier and attorney and Deacon David Clegg are behind with 5 percent each.
It's pretty surprising that Collier would release a poll showing her so far behind. The memo does argue that she'd close the gap once voters learn more about her, but Collier has almost no time left to get her name out. Collier also had just $57,000 in the bank in early June, so she can't exactly saturate the airwaves in the final days of the campaign. Meanwhile, Ryan's allies at VoteVets are spending another $84,000 on a TV buy for him.
● PA-01: This week, the state ALF-CIO endorsed GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. The group backed Republicans in 16 state legislative races, but Fitzpatrick was the only one of Team Red's congressional candidates to get their seal of approval.
● SC-04: The Club for Growth has endorsed former state Sen. Lee Bright days ahead of next week's GOP primary runoff for this safely red seat, and they've launched what they say is a $230,000 TV and digital buy against state Sen. William Timmons. One ad begins with the narrator asking the audience what Timmons said about the gas tax before it shows a clip of him declaring, "We could raise it 30 cents. I don't care." The other 15-second spot uses the same clip, but throws in another where Timmons says, "I'm in. I don't even need tax reform."
However, another outside group is coming to Timmons' aid. CLA Inc, which stands for the Conservative Leadership Alliance, is dropping $266,000 on a media buy for Timmons, which is not online yet. CLA and the Club have come into conflict in primaries a few times this cycle.
● WV-03: Monmouth finds Democratic state Sen. Richard Ojeda in surprisingly good shape for the general election in West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District, a coal country seat that backed Donald Trump 73-23 but still sometimes favors Democrats down the ballot. Monmouth's "potential voters" model (we explain what each of their models is in our WV-Sen item above) finds Ojeda leading Republican state Del. Carol Miller 43-41. Ojeda's lead expands to 47-41 under their historical midterm turnout model, and goes all the way to 48-39 with their Democratic surge model.
Ojeda, an Iraq veteran who was brutally beaten at a campaign event in 2016, also won his first term 59-41 as his state Senate seat was going for Trump 78-19, so he has experience winning some very red turf. (Ojeda himself told the New Yorker ahead of the 2016 election that he was backing Trump.) Still, it's very surprising he's doing this well in this poll in a seat this pro-Trump, but this seat had voted for only a single non-presidential Republican from 1930 until 2014.
Part of Ojeda's appeal may be because of his profile, which has helped him gain attention from plenty of national outlets. However, Monmouth finds that both candidates have very similar favorable ratings, with Ojeda's 33-14 score not that different from Miller's 27-10. (Those numbers come from the potential voters model.)
As we always say, you should never let one poll determine your view of a race, even when there is literally one poll to go off of. So far, neither national party has run any ads here or reserved fall air time, so they're at least not acting like this is a very competitive race. Even if Ojeda is ahead or close at this point, he'll need to be prepared for the GOP's attempts to tie him to unpopular national Democrats.
P.S. Monmouth also released general election matchups for West Virginia's other two House seats, but both sample sizes are well under 300, which is the minimum number we require to include in the Digest.
● House: In an unexpected but welcome development for Democrats, the New York Times reported on Wednesday that Mike Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor of New York City, plans to spend $80 million of his personal fortune to help the party win back the House this fall. Bloomberg was first elected as a Republican but later became an independent and has regularly supported candidates from both parties, so his decision to go all-in on one side is notable.
Bloomberg is particularly well-known in the political world for his efforts to reduce gun violence, and he's sometimes showed up as an NRA bogeyman in races where gun rights have taken central stage. His advisors seem to grasp that problem: While a target list hasn't been set, the Times says Bloomberg intends to focus on moderate suburban districts rather than "rural, conservative-leaning districts where his views on guns and other issues could stir an uproar."
Bloomberg himself says he still intends to support some Republicans, including at the gubernatorial level, but in a statement, he was unambiguous in wanting a Democratic House. Of course, while $80 million seems like a gigantic sum, the Koch brothers have promised to spend $400 million on the midterms, and needless to say, no democracy should be subject to the whims of billionaires. But unilateral disarmament is not an option, and Bloomberg's money, if it's deployed wisely, will be a boon to Democrats.