The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
● Programing Note: We'll be taking off Monday through Wednesday for the 4th of July holiday, so that means no Live Digest on those days (it will return on Thursday). For those who read us on the web or via email, there will be no Morning Digest Tuesday through Thursday, but we'll be back on the web and in your inbox on Friday. Enjoy the holiday!
Leading Off
● MI-Gov, MI-Sen: Kyle Melinn of MIRS News has graciously shared some new polling they've commissioned from Target-Insyght looking at both parties' Aug. 7 primaries, as well as a few hypothetical general election matchups for governor. On the Democratic side, they give former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer a wide 40-19 lead over wealthy businessman Shri Thanedar, while former Detroit Health Commissioner Abdul El-Sayed takes 17.
Campaign Action
This is the first poll we've seen here since the Glengariff Group's April survey for the Greater Detroit Regional Chamber PAC had Thanedar leading Whitmer 30-26, while El-Sayed was at 7. However, a March Target-Insyght poll had Whitmer ahead of Thanedar 34-20 (El-Sayed was at 6), so it's not at all clear if Whitmer has surged ahead over the last few months, or if Target-Insyght is just finding more favorable numbers for her than Glengariff.
On the GOP side, Attorney General Bill Schuette leads Lt. Gov. Brian Calley 45-16, while state Sen. Patrick Colbeck takes 8. Every single poll we've seen, including some Calley internals, has shown Schuette ahead. They also look at the Senate primary to take on Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, and they find wealthy venture capitalist Sandy Pensler leading businessman John James 32-29.
Finally, Target-Insyght tests Schuette against both Whitmer and Thanedar (they did not ask about the Senate race). They give Whitmer a 42-37 lead, while Thanedar posts a similar 40-37 edge. The last general election poll we saw was an EPIC-MRA survey at the start of May that found Whitmer ahead 43-38 and Thanedar up 44-38.
It's worth noting that this poll unusually asked about ballot measures before it got to the horserace numbers. While that's not the same thing as asking general issue questions first (see our MN-Sen-B section below for an example of that), it's possible that, by asking voters to think about their stances on legalizing recreational marijuana, paid sick leave, and a minimum wage increase before asking about the candidates for governor rather than after, the poll could prime respondents to think about the horserace in a different way than they otherwise would if those questions were asked afterwards.
Senate
● MN-Sen-B, MN-Gov: On behalf of the conservative blog Outstate, GOP pollster BK Strategies is out with the first survey we've seen at all for either of Minnesota's biggest races, and they give Democrats some good news. Before we get to the results, though, we have to note that this poll asked a few issue questions before they got to the horserace numbers, something we strongly discourage.
Most importantly, BK asked whether elected officials should "act as a check on Donald Trump to prevent him from enacting his agenda, stand with the President and push his agenda, or prioritize local issues and focus on getting results for your community?" (By a 41-37 margin, respondents wanted someone to be a check on Trump rather than support him, while another 18 said they wanted an elected official who would prioritize local issues.) It's impossible to say what impact this question may have had on the horserace results, but by asking about how elected officials should or should not work with Trump first, it could very well have primed voters to respond differently than they otherwise might have.
Now, to the numbers. In the special election for the Senate, appointed Democratic incumbent Tina Smith posts a 48-39 lead over Republican Karin Housley. (Sen. Amy Klobuchar also unsurprisingly leads Republican Jim Newberger 57-37 in a race no one is treating as anything but safe for Team Blue.)
BK also tests former Gov. Tim Pawlenty against two prospective Democratic foes in the gubernatorial contests, and finds him trailing both. Rep. Tim Walz leads 48-41, while Attorney General Lori Swanson has a 46-41 edge. The third Democratic candidate, state Rep. Erin Murphy, was not tested. BK also takes a look at the Aug. 14 GOP primary and finds Pawlenty beating 2014 nominee Jeff Johnson 54-20; they did not release results for the Democratic contest.
P.S. We'd never heard of Outstate until now, but it turns out it's the new venture of wealthy businessman Stewart Mills, who lost two tight races for Minnesota's 8th Congressional District to Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan (who is now Swanson's running mate) in 2014 and 2016. Mills, who had a horrible relationship with the NRCC, considered running against Smith for the Senate and for the 8th again this cycle, but he passed on both.
● MS-Sen-B: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently launched an ad for appointed GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith staring former Southern Miss football player Brett Favre, and we now know they're putting $300,000 behind it. The Chamber has already spent just over $1 million here ahead of the November special.
● MT-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is up with a positive spot where he pledges to protect Montana's public lands. Republican foe Matt Rosendale goes unmentioned, but Tester's allies at Senate Majority PAC are already running spots arguing that Rosendale is trying to transfer public lands to developers
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov: Tony Knowles, who is Alaska's most recent Democratic governor, endorsed former Sen. Mark Begich on Wednesday. Knowles also argued that independent Gov. Bill Walker, an independent who was elected in 2014 with Democratic support, had done a poor job stabilizing the state's economy, and declared that Begich was the only pro-choice candidate in the race. Begich can't afford for the state's Democrats to be too split between him and Walker in the general election, and Knowles seems to be doing whatever he can to motivate Democratic voters to choose the former senator.
● CT-Gov: On Wednesday, the State Elections Enforcement Commission unanimously voted to investigate whether GOP businessman Steve Obsitnik illegally raised campaign money, as well as whether he improperly coordinated with the allied independent expenditure committee FixCT. The investigation against Obsitnik will indefinitely delay him from receiving $1.35 million in public financing for the Aug. 14 primary, something that could very seriously hamper his efforts in the expensive five-way campaign.
Obsitnik's campaign manager admitted as much on Friday, saying that, "Quite honestly, we need that money to be competitive," and that the candidate couldn't self-fund.
● FL-Gov: On Friday, billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer's group NextGen America announced they were endorsing Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum in the Aug. 28 Democratic primary. Gillum has struggled with fundraising and often has been in a distant third place in the polls, so this is a very good get for him. Steyer says that he's contributed $500,000 to Gillum's allied PAC Forward Florida, while at least another $500,000 will go to get-out-the–vote efforts, digital ads, and mailers from NextGen to boost the mayor.
● GA-Gov: The GOP firm Cygnal, which the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes is neutral in the GOP contest, is out with the first poll of Team Red's July 24 primary runoff, and they give Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle just a 44-43 edge over Secretary of State Brian Kemp. Cagle led Kemp 39-26 in the first round of the primary in May, and he'd been the frontrunner throughout the contest.
Cagle is also outspending Kemp $2 million to $1 million on TV, and the AJC reports that his allied committee Changing Georgia's Future is deploying $1.5 million on ads for the runoff. However, Cagle got some horrible headlines a few weeks ago when a recording was released of him admitting that he'd helped pass bad legislation to hurt another candidate, which could be hurting him despite his spending edge.
● LA-Gov: GOP Sen. John Kennedy has shown plenty of interest in challenging Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards next year, and while he hasn't said when he'll decide, he's released a SurveyUSA poll to argue he's in strong shape to win. (SurveyUSA usually works for media outlets, but Kennedy's allied PAC commissioned some polls from them during his successful 2016 Senate race.) The poll gives Kennedy a 51-37 lead over Edwards in a general election; the only other poll we've seen testing the two was a late February poll from Mason-Dixon that gave Edwards a narrow 45-44 edge.
Kennedy seems to be trying to deter Rep. Ralph Abraham from jumping in by dropping this poll. SurveyUSA tested out a hypothetical jungle primary between the three politicians and finds Kennedy and Edwards each taking 35 percent while Abraham was a distant third at 8. Abraham said in December that he expected to decide on a race for governor by the second quarter of 2018 "at the latest," but we've hit that deadline and heard nothing. However, Abraham said in February that he'd seek re-election to his safely red seat this year whether or not he runs for governor.
● RI-Gov: Candidate filing closed Wednesday for Rhode Island's Sept. 12 primary (a very rare Wednesday Election Day), and the state has a list of contenders here. Note that major-party candidate filing is still only open in Delaware, Louisiana, and for state-level races in New York (though we're still waiting for Connecticut to put out its list).
Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo won her first term in 2014 by 41-36 against Cranston Mayor Allan Fung (most of the balance went to the late Robert Healey of the Moderate, or "Cool Moose" Party), and both of them are running again, but each has primaries to get through first. Raimondo faces former Secretary of State Matt Brown, who originally planned to run as a left-leaning independent. Brown left office in 2006 after aborting his campaign to challenge then-GOP Sen. Lincoln Chaffee, but Chaffee, who himself considered running against Raimondo in the Democratic primary, endorsed Brown on Thursday.
Raimondo has had a turbulent relationship with progressives since pushing through pension reforms as state treasurer, and Brown is arguing she's too close to corporate interests. Raimondo had a massive $4.3 million to $25,000 cash-on-hand edge over Brown at the end of March (Brown only entered the primary the next month) and it would be a huge surprise if she lost, but Brown may be able to do her some damage less than two months before the general. Former state Rep. Spencer Dickinson is also in, though he hasn't attracted much attention.
On the GOP side, Fung faces state House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan and businessman Giovanni Feroce. The state party endorsed Fung on Wednesday, an event that Morgan argued was "rigged" for him and boycotted. Fung had a $316,000 to $185,000 cash-on-hand lead over Morgan at the end of March, while Feroce raised all of $500 during the first three months of the year.
Rhode Island is a very blue state and Raimondo is a very strong fundraiser, but this won't be an easy campaign for her. Raimondo was only elected with just over 40 percent of the vote four years ago, and she's had some high-profile missteps that haven't helped expand her base of support. It also doesn't help that Ocean State voters have been quite willing to send Republicans to the governor's office in the past while backing Democrats for almost everything else.
A February poll from Roger Williams University gave Raimondo just a 38-36 lead against Fung, while a June SocialSphere survey found them tied 33-33. National Republicans are taking an interest in this contest, and a group funded by the RGA has reserved $1.5 million in TV time.
What may help save Raimondo is the independent candidacy of former state Rep. Joe Trillo, a former Republican who chaired Trump's state campaign. Trillo, who says he plans to self-fund, had $123,000 in the bank at the end of March. The recent SocialSphere poll also found him taking 16 percent of the vote in the Raimondo-Fung race, though Roger Williams gave him just 6 percent. We believe that Rhode Island's blue lean and the overall political environment, as well as Trillo's campaign, will give Raimondo the edge, and Daily Kos Elections rates the general as Lean Democratic.
● WI-Gov: The Koch brothers’ Americans for Prosperity has launched what they say is a more than $1 million TV and digital ad campaign praising GOP Gov. Scott Walker. Their TV ad argues Wisconsin's economy is awesome, and "it's all thanks to Scott Walker's pro-growth policies."
House
● AZ-02: The DCCC and former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick are launching a joint TV ad buy ahead of the Aug. 28 primary, and the National Journal reports the size of the buy is at least $36,000. Their spot argues that Kirkpatrick will stand up to Donald Trump and Paul Ryan's "big con" to cut taxes for the rich and pay for it by gutting Social Security and Medicare.
● CA-22: The progressive group End Citizens United, which supports Democrat Andrew Janz, is out with a PPP poll giving GOP Rep. Devin Nunes a 49-41 lead. This rural Central Valley seat went from 57-42 Romney to 52-43 Trump, but the poll gives Trump a stronger 54-41 favorable rating here.
● KS-02: Republicans haven't done anything to hide how nervous they are about losing this 56-37 Trump seat, and Democrat Paul Davis is out with a poll from The Mellman Group arguing those fears are well-placed. The poll gives Davis a 39-34 lead over state Sen. Steve Fitzgerald, who is one of seven Republicans running in the Aug. 7 primary; the memo says they decided to test Fitzgerald in this very crowded field because he's "one of the more established candidates."
● MA-07: The state chapter of the American Federation of Teachers has thrown its support behind incumbent Mike Capuano in the September Democratic primary.
● NY-19, OH-14: The DCCC has added Antonio Delgado and Betsy Rader to its Red to Blue List. Delgado won Tuesday's crowded primary to challenge Rep. John Faso in a competitive New York district, while Rader is taking on Rep. Dave Joyce in an Ohio seat that moved from 51-48 Romney to 54-42 Trump.
● SC-01: Democrat Joe Cunningham suspended his campaign after Republican Katie Arrington was seriously injured in a car crash, and he's announced that he's slowly resuming things now that she's moved out of intensive care. Doctors say they expect Arrington to make a full recovery, though it's not clear when she'll be back on the campaign trail.
● WA-05: GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is up with her first negative TV spot against Democratic foe Lisa Brown, which argues she wants to raise taxes. The commercial charges that Brown voted to raise taxes in 1993 during her first year in the legislature and has pushed for more while "backing a pay raise for herself."
While the commercial makes it sound like Brown worked to increase her own salary, the decision was made in 2007 by the Washington Citizens' Commission on Salaries for Elected Officials, which agreed that a pay raise for legislators, the governor, and judges was warranted because of what their jobs required. Brown said at the time that "[l]egislators don't go into this for the money," but adding, "But sometimes the ones with family have a hard time financially. So I'm glad there's an increase." Unsurprisingly, McMorris Rodgers' spot only used that last sentence.
Brown soon went up with her own commercial, which the campaign tells us is a six-figure buy. Brown tells the audience that DC insiders are setting up shop in the district and pouring dark money in to tear her down. The Democrat pledges not to take corporate PAC money and says she's spent her whole career helping eastern Washington. Brown then talks about how she helped bring a new medical center to Washington State University Spokane, build the north-south freeway corridor, and created jobs.
● NRCC: The NRCC has unveiled the first 11 members of the top rung of its " Young Guns" program, which is meant to designate who its top House candidates are:
CA-39: Young Kim (51-43 Clinton, 51-47 Romney)
CA-49: Diane Harkey (51-43 Clinton, 52-46 Romney)
MN-08: Pete Stauber (54-39 Trump, 52-46 Obama)
NC-09: Mark Harris (54-43 Trump, 55-44 Romney)
NJ-11: Jay Webber (49-48 Trump, 52-47 Romney)
NV-03: Danny Tarkanian (48-47 Trump, 50-49 Obama)
NV-04: Cresent Hardy (50-45 Clinton, 54-44 Obama)
OH-16: Anthony Gonzalez (56-39 Trump, 53-45 Romney)
PA-07: Marty Nothstein (49-48 Clinton, 53-46 Obama)
PA-08: John Chrin (53-44 Trump, 55-43 Obama)
WA-08: Dino Rossi (48-45 Clinton, 50-48 Obama)
All of these candidates either have already won their primaries (Harris even unseated Rep. Robert Pittenger to do it) or have no serious opposition. The only real surprise inductee is Gonzalez, who is running in a contest we rate as Safe Republican.
