The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NC-Sen: Former Democratic state Sen. Cal Cunningham joined the race for Senate last Monday, and a new poll finds he may already be competitive against Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. On behalf of Cunningham’s allies at VoteVets, the North Carolina-based Democratic firm PPP sees him leading Tillis by a 41-40 margin. This is the first time this cycle that any publicly available poll has tested that matchup. This same poll also had Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leading GOP Lt. Gov. Dan Forest by a 45-41 margin for re-election, and it had Donald Trump's approval rating slightly underwater at 49-46 disapproving.
Campaign Action
While Tillis only trails by a single point for Senate, what may be far more concerning for him is that PPP finds he has a dismal 23% approval rating with 46% disapproving. While some of that disdain for his job performance may be from conservatives who will ultimately back the Republican nominee over any Democrat, Tillis is currently facing a primary challenge from businessman Garland Tucker over the senator's insufficient fealty toward Trump. Tillis may therefore be in the uncomfortable position of needing to shift right to win his primary, which in turn may hurt his general election chances.
With Democrats needing to flip at least three net seats to capture control of the Senate in 2020, North Carolina is looking like it may be among their top offensive opportunities. It's unclear if another major Democrat will join the primary, but it should be encouraging for Team Blue that even Cunningham, who is undoubtedly starting out with low name recognition after having last run for office a decade ago, is already polling this competitively with the better-known incumbent.
House
● CA-48: Former Republican state Sen. Janet Nguyen had previously said she was considering running against freshman Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda in 2020, but she just filed to run for Orange County's municipal water board next year instead. Furthermore, Politico reports that a consultant for her 2018 state Senate campaign said Nguyen "in all probability" won't run for the House next year.
● CA-50: The Hill reports that former Republican Rep. Darrell Issa is considering making a comeback bid in the 50th District if GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter doesn't seek re-election or resigns due to his indictment on corruption charges. There's no direct indication of Issa's interest, but it wouldn't be the first time his name has come up for this strongly Republican seat after he retired in 2018 to avoid defeat in the neighboring and much bluer 49th. However, The Hill reports that Issa may not face a warm reception in D.C. if he tries to run again, with some anonymous House members saying he had worn out his welcome.
● FL-15: Despite a report last Monday that state Rep. Adam Hattersley would join the Democratic primary while Navy veteran Andrew Learned would drop out to run for Hattersley's legislative seat, neither Democrat is confirming that plan. Learned derided the report as "noise" and said he's "still running for Congress," and Hattersley said he hasn't reached a decision about seeking higher office. Learned asserted that the two of them are friends and talk regularly, which would suggest it's unlikely they both run for the same office in 2020.
● IA-01: Businessman and farmer Thomas Hansen is the latest Republican to launch a campaign against first-term Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer, joining a primary that includes state Rep. Ashley Hinson. Hansen, who described himself as a Trump supporter and espoused typical conservative positions, doesn't appear to have run for office before, and it's unclear if he'll be able to run a strong race.
● UT-01: Despite having announced all the way back in August of 2017 that he would retire in 2020, UtahPolicy.com reports that Republican Rep. Rob Bishop is reconsidering whether or not to run again according to unnamed sources close to the congressman. Bishop will reportedly reach a decision by the end of summer or early September and would be likelier to run if he thought Republicans could take back control of the House next year. Bishop's chief of staff also refused to rule out the prospect that his boss could run again for this safely red northern Utah seat, saying he's focused on the current Congress.
