The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TX-Sen: Senate Majority PAC announced Thursday that it was booking $8.6 million in Texas to help Democrat MJ Hegar unseat Republican Sen. John Cornyn, a big move that makes it the first major outside group to reserve TV time in the priciest state on the 2020 Senate map.
Indeed, this is the first time in a very long time that a prominent organization on either side of the aisle has spent a serious amount of money on a Senate race in the Lone Star State, which last voted to send a Democrat to the upper chamber in 1988. Even in 2018, when Democrat Beto O'Rourke came surprisingly close to unseating Ted Cruz, national Democrats and Republicans each largely avoided this expensive state in order to direct their resources to other Senate battles.
Campaign Action
However, SMP may have a good reason to take a chance on Texas this year. As of Thursday, the Daily Kos Elections polling average gives Cornyn just a 46-42 edge over Hegar, and a number of surveys also show that Joe Biden has a real chance to become the first Democrat to win the state's electoral votes since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Hegar also outraised Cornyn $14 million to $7.2 million during the third quarter of 2020, and she ended September with a small $8.5 million to $8 million cash-on-hand edge.
SMP's first TV spots, which are running in English and Spanish, each go after Cornyn on healthcare. "John Cornyn led the charge to eliminate the law that protects people with pre-existing conditions," the narrator says, adding, "John Cornyn is a fraud who sold us out."
3Q Fundraising
Thursday night was the deadline for federal candidates to report their third quarter fundraising, and we’ll have our usual House and Senate fundraising charts in the coming days.
● AK-Sen: Dan Sullivan (R-inc): $1.63 million raised, $2.59 million cash-on-hand
● AZ-Sen: Mark Kelly (D): $38.7 million raised, $19 million cash-on-hand
● GA-Sen-A: Jon Ossoff (D): $21.3 million raised
● GA-Sen-B: Matt Lieberman (D): $250,000 raised, $230,000 cash-on-hand; Kelly Loeffler (R-inc): $2 million raised, $5.5 million cash-on-hand; Doug Collins (R): $2.3 million raised, $2.4 million cash-on-hand
● IA-Sen: Joni Ernst (R-inc): $7.2 million raised, $4.3 million cash-on-hand
● KY-Sen: Amy McGrath (D): $36.8 million raised, $20 million cash-on-hand
● MN-Sen: Tina Smith (D-inc): $4.4 million raised, $2.98 million cash-on-hand
● MT-Sen: Steve Bullock (D): $26.8 million raised
● NH-Sen: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): $4 million raised, $4.84 million cash-on-hand
● TX-Sen: John Cornyn (R-inc): $7.2 million raised, $8 million cash-on-hand
● MO-Gov: Mike Parson (R-inc): $1.7 million raised, $1.67 million cash-on-hand; Nicole Galloway (D): $3.1 million raised
● NH-Gov: Chris Sununu (R-inc): $213,000 raised (Sept. 9-Oct. 12), $595,000 cash-on-hand; Dan Feltes (D): $290,000 raised (Sept. 9-Oct. 12), $99,000 cash-on-hand
● AK-AL: Don Young (R-inc): $445,000 raised, $535,000 cash-on-hand
● CA-04: Brynne Kennedy (D): $836,000 raised
● IA-03: Cindy Axne (D-inc): $1.5 million raised, $1.6 million cash-on-hand
● KY-06: Josh Hicks (D): $1 million raised
● MN-01: Dan Feehan (D): $1.85 million raised. $1.45 million cash-on-hand
● MN-02: Angie Craig (D-inc): $1.54 million raised, $2.1 million cash-on-hand
● OR-04: Alek Skarlatos (R): $2.58 million raised, $1.15 million cash-on-hand
● TX-10: Michael McCaul (R-inc): $807,000 raised, $1.17 million cash-on-hand
● TX-24: Candace Valenzuela (D): $2.44 million raised
● TX-32: Genevieve Collins (R): $1.18 million raised, additional $795,000 self-funded, $1.03 million cash-on-hand
● VA-02: Elaine Luria (D-inc): $1.8 million raised, $1.4 million cash-on-hand
Senate
● AK-Sen: The NRSC has launched its first commercial in the increasingly expensive Alaska Senate race, and Alaska Public Media's Nat Herz reports that it's part of a $2.3 million buy. The spot portrays Al Gross, an independent who is the Democratic nominee, as someone who "is backed by the most liberal Democrats in Washington."
The League of Conservation Voters is also launching a $800,000 TV buy tying Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan to the controversial Pebble Mine project in southwest Alaska, which has been the subject of several ads in this contest. A Wasilla man named Mark Niver tells the audience, "It would be devastating. We're talking about toxins in the water, killing the salmon and our way of life."
Niver continues, "Pebble Mine could have been stopped years ago. But Dan Sullivan let plans move forward that have helped Pebble Mine." He adds, "He even took $10,000 in campaign cash from mine executives. That mine could wipe out 14,000 Alaskan fishing jobs."
Sullivan himself is also up with a commercial where he affirms that he's "repeatedly opposed the Pebble Mine" and argues that Gross "and his outside liberal allies are spending millions lying to you." The incumbent spends the rest of the ad talking about his conservative credentials; Gross ran his own spot last month linking Sullivan to Pebble Mine.
While Sullivan portrays himself as an ardent Pebble Mine foe, Hertz notes that his opposition is "relatively new." As the Huffington Post's Daniel Marans wrote last month, Sullivan "opposed the Obama administration's preemptive veto of the proposed mine and supported allowing it to go through the federal permitting process." It was only in August that the senator said that the project should not be permitted because it didn't meet safety standards, which the Anchorage Daily News said was the first time he'd taken a formal position against Pebble Mine.
● GA-Sen-B: Appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler accepted an endorsement on Thursday from Marjorie Greene, the QAnon supporter who is the party's nominee in Georgia's safely red 14th Congressional District, in the Nov. 3 special election all-party Senate primary.
Unsurprisingly, Loeffler wasn't remotely bothered by Greene's ties to the pro-Trump conspiracy theory that the FBI views as a potential domestic terror threat. "No one in Georgia cares about this QAnon business," the senator said, "It's something that fake news is going to continue to bring up and ignore antifa and the violence promoted across this country."
And if Loeffler was at all put off by Greene's own litany of racist, Islamophobic, and anti-Semitic rantings, or her unfounded belief that "children should not wear masks" because they are "unhealthy for their psychological, emotional, and educational growth," she didn't show it either. Believe it or not, it was only last year that Republicans viewed Loeffler as someone who could win back the suburban voters whom Trump had driven out of the party.
Several recent polls show pastor Raphael Warnock, the favored candidate of national Democrats, taking first place next month as Loeffler and fellow Republican Rep. Doug Collins are locked in a competitive contest for the second spot in the all-but-assured January runoff. Both Loeffler and Collins have been aggressively courting the far right, and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Collins also tried to earn Greene's endorsement.
● MI-Sen: On Thursday, the Senate Leadership Fund announced that it was booking an additional $5.6 million to aid Republican John James. The move comes about two weeks after the super PAC launched a separate $9 million buy.
● SC-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters announced Thursday that it was spending $1.5 million on a radio and direct mail campaign against Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham.
● Polls: Looks down … We're going to need a bigger boat.
- AZ-Sen: Ipsos for Reuters: Mark Kelly (D): 52, Martha McSally (R-inc): 41 (49-47 Biden) (early Oct.: 51-41 Kelly)
- AZ-Sen: Monmouth University: Kelly (D): 52, McSally (R-inc): 42 (50-44 Biden) (Sept.: 50-44 Kelly)
- AZ-Sen: OH Predictive Insights (R): Kelly (D): 50, McSally (R-inc): 45 (49-45 Biden) (Sept.: 52-42 Kelly)
- CO-Sen: Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos: John Hickenlooper (D): 53, Cory Gardner (R-inc): 42 (54-42 Biden)
- CO-Sen: Keating–OnSight–Melanson (D): Hickenlooper (D): 51, Gardner (R-inc): 41 (54-39 Biden) (May: 54-36 Hickenlooper)
- GA-Sen-A: Data for Progress (D) for Crooked Media and Indivisible: Jon Ossoff (D): 44, David Perdue (R-inc): 43, Shane Hazel (L): 3 (46-46 presidential tie) (Sept.: 44-44 tie)
- GA-Sen-B: Data for Progress (D) for Crooked Media and Indivisible: Raphael Warnock (D): 30, Kelly Loeffler (R-inc): 22, Doug Collins (R): 22, Matt Lieberman (D): 10 (46-46 presidential tie) (Sept.: Warnock: 26, Collins: 22, Loeffler: 21)
- IA-Sen: Data for Progress (D) for Crooked Media and Indivisible: Theresa Greenfield (D): 47, Joni Ernst (R-inc): 43 (48-47 Trump) (Sept.: 44-42 Greenfield)
- ME-Sen: Pan Atlantic Research: Sara Gideon (D): 47, Susan Collins (R-inc): 40, Lisa Savage (I): 5, Max Linn (I): 2 (50-40 Biden) (March 2019: 51-29 Collins)
- MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press: Gary Peters (D-inc): 45, John James (R): 39 (48-39 Biden) (Sept.: 45-41 Peters)
- NC-Sen: Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos: Cal Cunningham (D): 51, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 45 (51-46 Biden) (May: 50-41 Cunningham)
- NH-Sen: University of New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 55, Corky Messner (R): 40 (Sept.: 54-41 Shaheen)
- SC-Sen: Data for Progress (D) for Crooked Media and Indivisible: Jaime Harrison (D): 47, Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 46 (52-43 Trump) (Sept.: 47-46 Graham)
- SC-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Graham (R-inc): 46, Harrison (D): 40 (49-41 Trump)
- VA-Sen: Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos: Mark Warner (D-inc): 54, Daniel Gade (R): 43 (55-42 Biden)
- VA-Sen: Reconnect Research/Roanoke College: Warner (D-inc): 55, Gade (R): 38 (53-38 Biden)
CO-Sen: We've seen two other polls this month, and they've each also shown both John Hickenlooper and Joe Biden well ahead. Sen. Cory Gardner's best result was a SurveyUSA poll that found him down "only" 48-39, with Biden ahead 50-40.
GA-Sen-B: Data for Progress also tested two hypothetical January runoff head-to-heads. In one scenario, Democrat Raphael Warnock led Republican Doug Collins 44-40, while in the other, Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler edged out Democrat Matt Lieberman 42-41. The first matchup is, shall we say, far more likely to occur than the second.
Gubernatorial
● NC-Gov: We have two new surveys of North Carolina's gubernatorial contest:
- Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos: Roy Cooper (D-inc): 53, Dan Forest (R): 46 (51-46 Biden) (May: 53-44 Cooper)
- SurveyUSA for WRAL: Cooper (D-inc): 52, Forest (R): 39 (50-45 Biden) (Sept.: 49-42 Cooper)
House
● AR-02: On Thursday, House Majority PAC announced that it was putting $420,000 behind its opening TV ad against Republican Rep. French Hill, a move that makes HMP the latest group to get involved in a contest that only started to attract serious outside spending weeks ago. The narrator argues, "While Arkansas small businesses struggled and workers lost their jobs, Congressman Hill looks out for himself and his corporate interest friends and left us behind."
● CO-03: The Congressional Leadership Fund launched its first TV commercial here on Thursday, a move that comes after weeks of spending by national Democrats against QAnon sympathizer Lauren Boebert. The only other notable conservative group that has been airing ads in this western Colorado seat has been the anti-tax Club for Growth, which has so far dropped $1.3 million on spots against Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush. CLF's ad, unsurprisingly, caricatures Mitsch Bush as weak on public safety.
● FL-26: The League of Conservation Voters announced Thursday that it would spend $720,000 on Spanish-language commercials to support freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
● NC-08: The DCCC became the latest outside group to go on the air here in recent days when the committee on Thursday unveiled its opening TV spot against Republican Rep. Richard Hudson. The narrator says of the congressman, "He skipped the vote to give our soldiers a much-deserved pay raise. He deserted veterans when he voted to underfund the VA by a BILLION dollars." House Majority PAC also employed this line of attack against Hudson in its inaugural ad earlier this week.
● TX-24: House Majority PAC and the League of Conservation Voters have launched a $1 million joint ad buy that ties Beth Van Duyne to Donald Trump on healthcare. The narrator also declares that "Van Duyne ignored the science, recklessly siding with politicians on reopening as COVID cases surged in Texas."
● Polls:
ME-02: While Pan Atlantic Research doesn't have either Maine House race close, it surprisingly finds Rep. Jared Golden doing considerably better than his colleague Chellie Pingree even though Golden holds the far more conservative seat. Each House poll has a sample size of 300, which is the bare minimum we require in order to write up a poll.
The last survey of Maine's 2nd District that had at least 300 respondents was a mid-September Siena poll that gave Golden a 56-37 edge. The DCCC scaled back its reservation soon afterwards in an apparent sign of confidence, though Republicans are still acting like this northern Maine seat is in play: The Congressional Leadership Fund spent $945,000 through Sunday against the incumbent, while House Majority PAC has deployed $420,000.
NH-01, NH-02: UNH once again is showing Rep. Chris Pappas well ahead in the swingy 1st District while his colleague, Rep. Annie Kuster, has only a small lead in the more Democratic 2nd District. Kuster easily beat Republican Steve Negron 56-42 last cycle, and Republican donors certainly aren't acting like they think Negron has a better chance this time. Negron raised just $95,000 during the third quarter of 2020, and he ended September with $43,000 on-hand.
Matt Mowers has attracted considerably more attention in the 1st District, but so far, neither side is acting like this is a particularly competitive race either. As of Sunday, none of the big four outside groups have run any ads here.
The only other pollster that has released numbers in these two contests was another New Hampshire school, Saint Anselm College. Early this month, it gave Pappas and Kuster leads of 49-41 and 52-38, respectively.
NY-24: The only other poll we've seen since Labor Day was a late September Siena poll that found Dana Balter edging out Rep. John Katko 42-40, while Joe Biden led 53-34 in a Syracuse-based seat that Hillary Clinton carried just 49-45. Working Families Party nominee Steve Williams, who was chosen as a placeholder months ago and remains on the ballot thanks to a successful Republican lawsuit, took 6% in the Siena poll, while he was not an option in this PPP survey.
Other Races
● Honolulu, HI Prosecuting Attorney: RMG Research, polling on behalf of Civil Beat and Hawaii News Now, finds former Hawaii Circuit Court Judge Steve Alm leading defense attorney Megan Kau 43-31 in this open seat contest.
Alm, who served as U.S. attorney during the Clinton administration, is the less conservative of the two candidates. Alm supports reform goals for lower-level offenses, but The Appeal's Daniel Nichanian wrote back in July that "he is not putting forth ideas to shrink the system." Kau, by contrast, notably responded "no" when asked if she believed that the state incarcerated too many people.
● NC-LG, AZ Corporation Commission: This week, a group funded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg called Beyond Carbon Victory Fund launched large ad buys in support of Democrats seeking important downballot offices in two different swing states.
In North Carolina, Beyond Carbon is spending $2 million on TV ads to aid Democratic state Rep. Yvonne Lewis Holley in the race for lieutenant governor, as well as another $463,000 in digital and radio spots. The organization is also deploying $1.6 million in TV spending in Arizona, plus $400,000 for other mediums, to elect climate-friendly candidates to the Corporation Commission, which is the body tasked with regulating utilities throughout the state.
The North Carolina commercial declares, “As one of the first students of desegregation, lieutenant governor candidate Yvonne Lewis Holley learned how to cross barriers and build relationships,” and touts her success working with Republicans to raise teacher pay and lower taxes.
Holley faces Republican Mark Robinson, a first-time candidate who became a conservative celebrity for his 2018 speech protesting the cancellation of a gun show in Greensboro, and either of them would be the state’s first Black lieutenant governor. Robinson, for his part, has been in the news for standing by his inflammatory old Facebook posts, which include anti-Semitic, Islamophobic, and transphobic screeds.
Whoever prevails next month could end up holding an important role in the state government. Republicans currently control the state Senate 29-21, and if Democrats overcome a hostile map and net four seats, the lieutenant governor would cast the tie-breaking vote. The winner will also likely be mentioned quite a lot in the future as a potential candidate for higher office, and if Democrats flip the office, popular Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper could run for Senate in 2022 without risking his party's hold on his office, assuming he wins re-election next month as he’s favored to do.
Over in Arizona, Beyond Carbon is backing the three Democratic candidates for Corporation Commission, which has been nicknamed Arizona's "fourth branch of government" due to the distinct role the state constitution lays out for it. Republicans currently control the body 4-1, but Democrats have a chance to flip it next month.
Team Blue’s nominees are Bill Mundell, who was elected to the commission in 2000 and 2004 as a Republican but said he switched parties because utilities had too much influence over Republican members; Anna Tovar, a former state senator who now serves as mayor of Tolleson, and Shea Stanfield, a former town council member in Cave Creek. (Tolleson and Cave Creek are both small cities in the Phoenix area.)
The opening commercial focuses on Mundell. The narrator declares that he “believes it's wrong to charge premium electricity prices during a pandemic,” and argues he’ll “stand up to big energy companies to lower our bills, reinstate solar net metering for everyone, and put money back in Arizonans’ pockets.”
Members are elected statewide to four-year terms, and last cycle, each party won one of the two seats that were on the ballot. The remaining three seats, all of which are Republican-held, are up this cycle. Each party has nominated three candidates (despite a ballot access debacle on the GOP side earlier this year), and voters can cast up to three votes in the general election. The three contenders with the most support next month will be elected, so Democrats need to take two of the top three spots to flip the commission.
Data
● County Benchmarks: We have a new recurring feature at Daily Kos Elections that we will carry through Election Day: A look at the battlegrounds through the lenses of the counties that will matter most in each state. And we’re not just looking at the all-important “swing” counties, we’re also looking at red zones where Democrats are positioned to minimize the damage, and deep blue counties where the Democrats are going to want to run up the score. Steve Singiser kicks off our tour of the battlegrounds within the battlegrounds in the great state of Georgia.
● Demographics: One thing that the Census Bureau doesn't do is measure or even define "suburban." To get a better handle on how suburban our nation's various congressional districts are, David Jarman has rolled out two different models that attempt to answer that question. One uses HUD survey data to estimate the urban, suburban, and rural percentage of each CD. The second one uses Office of Management and Budget classifications to add more detail, layering in "exurban" and "micropolitan" categories.
Ad Roundup
