The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Note: We'll be taking Monday off for Yom Kippur. The next Live Digest will appear on the site on Tuesday, and the next Morning Digest will show up in your inboxes on Wednesday.
Leading Off
● IN-Gov: The Associated Press recently reported that Indiana conservatives who are furious with Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb over his statewide mask mandate are cottoning to Libertarian Donald Rainwater as an alternative, which could make this fall's otherwise snoozy race for governor unexpectedly competitive.
Normally, we'd be skeptical of a largely anecdotal report like this one, but a few pieces of evidence are tugging us the other way. One is a poll earlier this month from Change Research on behalf of the local news site Indy Politics that found Holcomb leading Democrat Woody Myers just 36-30, with Rainwater taking 24%. That's an almost impossibly high figure for a third-party candidate, so the numbers should be viewed with great caution, but it does suggest that there could be a real outflow of support to Rainwater.
Campaign Action
More concretely, the AP says that Rainwater has enjoyed unexpectedly strong fundraising and will start advertising on cable and radio this week—something Indiana Libertarians haven't done in "many years," according to his campaign manager. Rainwater had just $6,000 in hand as of Aug. 5, but he's reported some major donations in the last few days, capped off by a $100,000 check from hedge fund manager and poker player Bill Perkins. (Perkins' father, also named Bill, was a Democratic assemblyman in New Jersey in the 1970s, though the younger Perkins has mostly given to Libertarian causes.)
Holcomb also seems to be reacting to this rebellion on his right flank in the worst possible way: Even though coronavirus case counts in the state remain near record highs, the governor just announced the suspension of nearly all restrictions aimed at stemming the pandemic, including allowing restaurants, bars, and gyms to operate at full capacity. Public health experts, unsurprisingly, expressed deep concern over the move.
Holcomb did, however, renew his mask order, which is likely to perpetuate right-wing furor. As Paul Krugman recently put it, opposition to masks has become "a declaration of political allegiance" to Donald Trump, and if there's one thing we know hardcore Republican voters won't tolerate, it's disloyalty to Trump. We'll still want to see further polling from other outfits before concluding there's real movement in the Hoosier State, but this race bears watching.
Race Ratings
Daily Kos Elections is changing our ratings in two Midwestern House contests, though as we'll discuss, one of them involves a designation we've never used before. You can find all our Senate, gubernatorial, and House ratings at each link.
● MN-02 (Likely D to unrated): In one of the strangest political developments we've seen in some time, Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon has canceled the November general election for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District because of the death of third-party candidate Adam Weeks and instead set a special election for Feb. 9. With so much in store between now and then—including a presidential election—it's simply impossible to accurately assess the race between freshman Democratic Rep. Angie Craig and her Republican opponent, Marine veteran Tyler Kistner.
It's also possible that the state law requiring this postponement could be trumped by the federal law that has locked Election Day in place since 1872. If Minnesota's statute were struck down and the November election reinstated, we'd likewise reinstate our rating of Likely Democratic, since district demographics and a hefty financial advantage would continue to make Craig the heavy favorite.
We haven't gotten word about a possible legal challenge yet, but Craig released a statement Friday exhorting her supporters "to vote for the entire ballot, including for this congressional race" on Nov. 3. That suggests Craig thinks Simon's decision might not stand. If, however, the February special proceeds as scheduled, we'll reassess after Election Day. In the meantime, though, the only option that makes sense—even though it's an unprecedented move for us—is to not rate this race at all.
● WI-03 (Safe D to Likely D): Veteran Democratic Rep. Ron Kind hasn't faced serious Republican opposition in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District in a decade, but that appears to be changing in the final weeks of the 2020 campaign.
Republicans are fielding Navy SEAL veteran Derrick Van Orden, who raised a credible amount of money through July. More importantly, though, the Congressional Leadership Fund launched a $2 million ad campaign against Kind in late September—not the kind of investment you'd make if a race were hopeless. This southwestern Wisconsin seat swung from 55-44 Obama to 49-45 Trump, and Republicans are hoping that another Trump victory here will drag down Kind.
However, it will still be difficult for Republicans to deny Kind a 13th term. The district moved back to the left in 2018, when Democrat Tony Evers carried it 50-48 as he was unseating Republican Gov. Scott Walker by a similar margin statewide. Kind also seems to have been preparing for a potentially difficult race: The incumbent had over $3 million stockpiled two months ago, and he began running positive commercials in mid-August.
Senate
● AK-Sen: Al Gross, an independent who is the Democratic nominee, released a commercial on Wednesday tying Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan to the now-former CEO of the state's controversial Pebble Mine project.
The narrator begins, "Listen to the head of Pebble Mine in an undercover recording about Dan Sullivan." The audience then sees a video of Pebble Limited Partnership CEO Tom Collier saying, "Right now, he's off in a corner being quiet, so I think that's our plan to work with him is leave him alone and let him be quiet." Collier goes on, "He's going to try to ride out the election and remain quiet." The narrator jumps back in and accuses Sullivan of hiding both his support for Pebble Mine and his 97% party-line voting record.
The video of Collier in the commercial is from a secretly recorded video that was released in late September by environmentalists opposed to Pebble Mine who were posing as potential investors; Collier resigned soon after the recording was publicized. The project has been a big source of contention in Alaska politics, with many environmental groups, Alaska Natives, and fishermen opposing it because of the potentially disastrous impact it could have on the health of salmon in Bristol Bay.
Sullivan's office responded to the recording of Collier by saying that on Aug. 24, about a month before the Collier video was leaked, the senator had "issued a strong statement supporting the administration's decision that Pebble has not met the high bar required and that a federal permit cannot be issued." Sullivan also said of Collier, "This incident demonstrates how far Mr. Collier, who has serious credibility problems of his own, is floundering in the face of this project's overwhelming challenges." Gross' camp, though, argues that Sullivan has never outright opposed the project, and it called for him to return the $6,400 he's received in donations from Collier since 2017.
● GA-Sen-B: On Friday, Barack Obama became the most prominent national Democrat by far to back pastor Raphael Warnock in the Nov. 3 all-party primary. Warnock has been trying to consolidate support from Georgia Democratic voters so he can advance to an all-but-assured January runoff, and Obama's backing will likely give him a boost.
Hours later, one of the other Democrats in the contest, businessman Matt Lieberman, decided that the best way to win over Peach State Democrats was to attack the former president. Lieberman sarcastically tweeted at Warnock, "[C]ongrats on endorsement from 44 who has endorsed every DC-approved senate candidate." Several recent polls have found Lieberman well behind Warnock, but Lieberman has refused to drop out even though his continued presence in the race could split the Democratic vote and allow two Republicans, Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins, to secure both runoff spots.
Loeffler, meanwhile, is running the first TV spot we've seen from a Republican focused on Ruth Bader Ginsburg's vacant Supreme Court seat. Loeffler also switches things up by using the commercial to attack Warnock rather than Collins, who has been on the receiving end of months worth of negative ads from the incumbent and her allies. The narrators argue, "Raphael Warnock wants a radically liberal Supreme Court," while claiming that Loeffler was "the first senator in America to urge President Trump to go forward on the Court."
● SC-Sen: The Lincoln Project, a group formed by several prominent Republican operatives seeking to defeat Donald Trump and his enablers, recently launched a commercial hitting Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham for going back on his 2018 pledge not to confirm a Trump Supreme Court nominee well into the election season. The audience sees Graham making his broken promise and continuing, "I want you to use my words against me … hold the tape."
● Polls:
- AZ-Sen: Data for Progress (D) for Defend Students Action Fund: Mark Kelly (D): 47, Martha McSally (R-inc): 38 (46-45 Trump) (Aug.: 50-40 Kelly)
- ME-Sen: SocialSphere for Colby College: Sara Gideon (D): 45, Susan Collins (R-inc): 41, Max Linn (I): 5, Lisa Savage (I): 3 (50-39 Biden) (July: 44-39 Gideon)
- MN-Sen: Suffolk for the Boston Globe: Tina Smith (D-inc): 45, Jason Lewis (R): 35 (47-40 Biden)
- TX-Sen: Data for Progress (D) for Defend Students Action Fund: John Cornyn (R-inc): 40, MJ Hegar (D): 38 (46-45 Trump) (early Sept.: 46-40 Cornyn)
Gubernatorial
● NH-Gov: While the few polls we've seen here have given Republican Gov. Chris Sununu a large lead over Democrat Dan Feltes, major outside groups on both sides just launched large opening TV ad campaigns.
The state Democratic Party announced it had begun a "seven-figure buy" tying Sununu to Donald Trump. The spot features audio of the governor saying, "I'm a Trump guy through-and-through," to which the narrator responds, "Like Trump, Sununu appointed judges who'd make abortion illegal. Like Trump, he's worked to defund Planned Parenthood, ending cancer screenings and other health services."
The RGA, meanwhile, also says it's running the first commercial backed by its own seven-figure TV buy, and it argues Feltes wants to create an income tax. Feltes' campaign responded by saying the candidate, "has spent his career lowering the tax burden for working families and small businesses and would veto an income tax if it reached his desk."
The RGA booked $3 million in ad time back in the spring, but it's not clear how much it plans to spend. WMUR writes that it "canceled some advertising in late August, including $355,000 on WMUR-TV, but then on Sept. 17, pre-booked $1.3 million in advertising time on the … station through the election."
House
● AR-02: Brilliant Corners has conducted a survey for four national pro-Democratic groups that finds Democrat Joyce Elliott leading Republican Rep. French Hill 48-46 in a central Arkansas seat that Republicans have held for a decade. The sample also shows Joe Biden ahead 49-46 four years after Donald Trump won 52-42 here. We've seen just one other survey here, and it also found a competitive race: In early September, Hendrix College, polling on behalf of Talk Business, had Hill up 48-46 as Biden led 49-45.
Republicans haven't released any numbers here, but there's one big sign that their own data shows things unexpectedly tight. The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund announced Friday that it was reserving $500,000 to aid Hill, which made it the first national outside group on either side to book ad time here (see our Ad Reservations item below for more on CLF's reservations nationwide).
● CA-25: House Majority PAC has publicized a survey from the Democratic firm Normington Petts that finds Democrat Christy Smith leading Republican Rep. Mike Garcia 51-45 in their rematch for this northern Los Angeles County seat. The poll also shows Joe Biden ahead 53-45 in a constituency that backed Hillary Clinton 50-44.
This is the third poll we've seen here. In late July, Garcia's allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund released an American Viewpoint survey that showed him up 48-41, though Team Red did not release presidential numbers. Just before Labor Day, Smith's campaign fired back with a GSG poll that had Garcia up only 46-45, while Biden led 50-43. Garcia defeated Smith 55-45 in a May special election where Republicans voted in disproportionate numbers, but turnout should be better for Democrats this fall.
● IL-13: Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan has the first commercial we've seen from any House candidate that focuses on Ruth Bader Ginsburg's vacant Supreme Court seat.
The ad opens with a picture of Ginsburg as the narrator declares, "A nation mourns. And your health care is at risk. A Supreme Court controlled by Donald Trump could overturn the Affordable Care Act by the end of this year." The spot then says of the Republican incumbent, "Rodney Davis won't help us, he votes with Trump. And the drug and insurance industries that gave him over $770,000." After hitting Davis for having "voted 11 times to gut protections for pre-existing conditions," the commercial touts Londrigan as a better option.
● ME-02: In a previous Digest, we incorrectly wrote that national Republicans had not reserved any air time in the race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District between Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and Republican Dale Crafts. The Congressional Leadership Fund has booked a total of $2.35 million here.
● NY-01, VA-05: The progressive organization 314 Action has announced that it has increased its TV buy in two House contests. The group will spend an additional $550,000 to help Democrat Nancy Goroff in New York's 1st District, and another $1 million to aid Democrat Cameron Webb in Virginia's 5th.
● TX-03: On Friday, the DCCC added Lulu Seikaly to its Red to Blue program. She is hoping to unseat freshman Republican Rep. Van Taylor in Texas' 3rd Congressional District, located in the Dallas suburbs.
● TX-22: The Congressional Leadership Fund's new commercial goes after Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni for being arrested for drug possession when he was 18 and for having also attended … Burning Man.
During Kulkarni's first campaign for this seat last cycle, he acknowledged he'd been arrested in 1997 for possessing less than a gram of cocaine. The felony charge was later dismissed after Kulkarni, who was a first-time offender, spent two years on probation and paid a $500 fine. Kulkarni went on to become a foreign service officer with top-secret State Department clearance and said of his arrest in 2018, "We should not be stigmatizing our youth for the rest of their lives."
Republicans also attacked Kulkarni during his last campaign for having attended Burning Man, though this is the first time that it's wound up in a TV ad. The gathering, which the narrator characterizes as "notorious desert drug parties," does have plenty of fans in the Republican Party, including anti-tax zealot Grover Norquist. Norquist wrote of his 2014 experience, "To everyone who whined about this free-market crusader from DC joining liberal hippies in the desert: listen to the Burners!" and added, "I'm hoping to bring the kids next year."
Incidentally, in June, Norquist praised Kulkarni's opponent, Republican Troy Nehls, for signing his organization's anti-tax pledge.
● Ad Reservations: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund announced Friday that it was booking $18 million more in spending for TV, digital, and mail, and Politico's Ally Mutnick has more details on the precise seats the super PAC is competing for. We've assembled this information into a spreadsheet and added it to our Ad Reservation tracker.
CLF is pouring more money into plenty of races that have already attracted heavy spending on both sides, but its newest expenditures also cover a few GOP-held House seats that national Republicans probably didn't expect to worry about even a few months ago. Perhaps most notably, this round of spending includes $850,000 in North Carolina's 11th District, an open 57-40 Trump district in the western portion of the state that hasn't attracted any other outside spending yet from the other big four committees (NRCC on the right and the DCCC and House Majority PAC on the left).
However, there were signs before Friday that this would be a race to watch. The DCCC released an in-house poll in early August that found Republican Madison Cawthorn beating Democrat Moe Davis just 46-41, with Trump ahead by a slim 48-46 spread. Davis' team soon publicized a July EMC Research survey that showed Cawthorn up by an even smaller 42-40 margin, though that release did not include presidential numbers. The GOP has yet to respond with better numbers, however, and CLF's large reservation is a strong indication that Team Red doesn't feel great about this contest.
CLF further reserved $750,000 to defend Virginia's 5th District, which became open in June after Bob Good beat Rep. Denver Riggleman at the nominating convention the GOP held in lieu of a primary. CLF is the first of the "big four" House groups—the other three being the DCCC, the House Majority PAC, and the NRCC—to reserve money here, though 314 Action Fund has been airing ads to help Democrat Cameron Webb. Trump carried this seat, which includes Charlottesville and South-central Virginia, 53-42, but Webb and his allies have released polls showing a competitive race. Most recently, 314 dropped a mid-September survey that found Good up just 47-46 even as Trump led 51-43.
The PAC also booked $500,000 to boost Rep. French Hill in Arkansas' 2nd District, which makes it the first major outside group on either side to reserve money here (see our AR-02 item above for more on this contest.) Finally, CLF's $500,000 reservation in Michigan's 6th District makes it the first of the big four to book money in the contest between longtime Republican incumbent Fred Upton and Democrat Jon Hoadley.
There are also a few other notable races where CLF is getting involved—contests that are less surprising to see on their roster than the quartet above but nevertheless reflect the extent to which Republicans are on defense in places they shouldn't have to be worried about. For starters, the group reserved $865,000 to protect Rep. Don Young, who has served as Alaska's only House member since 1973, in his rematch with Alyse Galvin, an independent who won the Democratic nomination; CLF's move comes weeks after the DCCC booked close to $500,000 here.
CLF also announced that it was reserving $750,000 to help Rep. Lee Zeldin in New York's 1st District. This 54-42 Trump seat on eastern Long Island didn't look like it would be a good target for Team Blue at the start of the cycle, but a trio of unanswered Democratic polls have found a competitive race between Zeldin and Democrat Nancy Goroff. 314 has been airing ads to help Goroff, and HMP also recently launched an ad against Zeldin for the first time.
There's one other development we want to note. CLF has booked another $950,000 in the Houston media market, and Politico reports that it's being used to help Republican Troy Nehls in Texas' open 22nd District. This news comes about a week after the NRCC canceled all its reservations in Houston in what looked like a very bad sign for both Nehls and Wesley Hunt, who is competing in the 7th District. CLF, though, seems to feel better about its prospects at least in the 22nd District than its erstwhile ally does.
Legislative
● Special Elections: It's late in the season, but we have a special election in Texas on tap for Tuesday:
TX-SD-30: This is a Republican district that covers a large area from the far northern suburbs of Dallas out west towards Wichita Falls. This seat became vacant when former state Sen. Pat Fallon was nominated to replace John Ratcliffe as the Republican nominee for Texas's 4th Congressional District. All the candidates will compete on one ballot and if no one takes a majority, a runoff would take place between the top-two vote-getters regardless of party.
There are five Republicans and one Democrat vying for this seat. The Republican candidates are businessman Craig Carter, Texas State Guard member Andy Hopper, state Rep. Drew Springer Jr., Denton Mayor Chris Watts, and businesswoman Shelly Luther. Luther gained notoriety earlier when she was arrested for keeping her Dallas-area salon open while the state was shut down due to COVID-19. Electrician Jacob Minter is the lone Democrat in the field.
This is one of the most heavily Republican districts in Texas, having backed Donald Trump 75-22 and Mitt Romney 76-23. The makeup of the Texas Senate stands at 18-12 in favor of Republicans with just this seat vacant.
Ad Roundup
