The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● CA-25: National Democrats are supporting Assemblywoman Christy Smith over progressive commentator Cenk Uygur in the March 3 top-two primary in California's vacant 25th Congressional District, and they're also now making it clear exactly which Republican they want Smith to end up facing.
The DCCC has begun what Politico reports is a $318,000 buy attacking Navy veteran Mike Garcia, who is competing with former Rep. Steve Knight next month for a spot in both the May 12 special election for the final months of former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill's term and in the November general election for a full two-year term. The DCCC spot declares that Garcia backed a tax increase for middle class families while his business repeatedly failed to pay its own taxes.
Campaign Action
Another prominent Democratic group, House Majority PAC, has also launched a $293,000 TV and radio buy here. Its TV ad isn't up yet, but HMP's s opening radio spot "attacks" Knight as a Trump Republican, which is exactly the type of argument that is actually designed to make him more appealing to conservative voters.
All the candidates will compete on the same ballot on March 3 for both the special election and the regular primary. While there's always a chance that both Smith and Uygur could take the top spots and lock the GOP out of both contests in this 51-43 Clinton seat, it's more likely that one candidate from each party will advance.
It's not hard to see why Democrats would rather that GOP candidate be Knight instead of Garcia. Knight lost this competitive northern Los Angeles County seat to Hill by a lopsided 54-46 margin in 2018, and he's struggled to bring in money for his comeback campaign.
Garcia outraised Knight by a lopsided $314,000 to $81,000 from Jan. 1 to Feb. 12, which the FEC defines as the pre-primary period, and outspent him $349,000 to $79,000. Garcia also had a large $278,000 to $108,000 cash-on-hand lead for the homestretch. A third Republican, former Trump aide George Papadopoulos, lagged well behind both Garcia and Knight in both fundraising and spending and had just $3,300 on-hand in mid-February.
Politico also reports that the DCCC and Smith are spending $151,000 on a coordinated TV buy. The commercial features a narrator bemoaning how Republicans in the pocket of drug companies kill any attempt to lower drug prices before Smith appears and declares that she owes these corporate interests nothing.
For her part, Smith outraised Uygur $314,000 to $248,000 during the pre-primary period, and she outspent him $648,000 to $385,000 during this time. Uygur, though, entered the final weeks with a $515,000 to $258,000 cash-on-hand lead.
Senate
● GA-Sen-B: Well, that was fun. On Thursday evening, Donald Trump said that he might nominate GOP Rep. Doug Collins to become director of national intelligence, a move that could have ended his intra-party challenge to Sen. Kelly Loeffler. Hours later, though, Collins declared, "This is not a job that's of interest to me at this time, and it's not one that I'd accept." Collins then immediately attacked Loeffler as "a senator who was just newly appointed who decided to support the president three weeks before she got the appointment."
● KS-Sen: The GOP firm McLaughlin & Associates, which shall we say is not our favorite pollster in the land, is out with a survey for former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach that finds him well ahead on the August Republican primary. Kobach leads Rep. Roger Marshall 40-23, while state Senate President Susan Wagle is far behind with 8%. Kansas Turnpike Authority chair Dave Lindstrom takes 5% while businessman Bob Hamilton, who is reportedly considering running but hasn't yet entered the race, is at 2%.
The only other poll of this primary we've seen this year came from Marshall's allies at the PAC Keep Kansas Great, and it showed a very different result. The survey from co/Efficient found Marshall edging Kobach 29-28, while Wagle also lagged far behind with 6%. Both polls do show, though, that the prospect of a Kobach win is a terrifyingly real possibility for the Senate GOP leaders who fear that he could make the general election uncomfortably competitive in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
● MA-Sen: On behalf of UMass Lowell, YouGov is out with the first poll we've seen in months for the September Democratic primary, and it gives Rep. Joe Kennedy III a tiny 35-34 edge over Sen. Ed Markey. This survey, though, was focused on the March 3 presidential primary, which will almost certainly have a considerably larger turnout than Markey and Kennedy's contest will get six months later.
Both candidates will have plenty of money, but Kennedy ended 2019 with a financial advantage. Kennedy outraised the incumbent $2.4 million to $1.4 million during the fourth quarter, and he held a $5.5 million to $4.6 million cash-on-hand lead at the end of December.
● MI-Sen: Democratic Sen. Gary Peters uses his second TV ad to talk about his work expanding skill-training for high school students and workers.
● NC-Sen: A new Republican-aligned PAC called Faith and Power has spent $3 million so far on ads praising state Sen. Erica Smith and attacking former state Sen. Cal Cunningham ahead of the March 3 Democratic primary, but new campaign finance reports reveal that a very familiar GOP organization is behind the effort.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a powerful super PAC run by allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is responsible for Faith and Power's entire budget, and its leader acknowledged it was taking action to force national Democrats to spend more on Cunningham. For her part, Smith has spoken out against the GOP for meddling in the Democratic primary to face Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
So far, the Republican ad campaign doesn't appear to be enough to undermine Cunningham's status as the frontrunner against Smith, who has raised very little money herself. A pair of polls released in February showed Cunningham leading 29-10, while a more recent poll from SurveyUSA had him up 42-17.
However, major Democratic groups have indeed invested plenty of money in recent weeks to help Cunningham win. The Charlotte Observer writes that as of Friday, VoteVets and VoteVets Action Fund have spent a total of $7.2 million here, while a new group called Carolina Blue created by a former DSCC staffer has deployed $4.5 million. Carolina Blue uses its new commercial to say that "voters should be reassured" about Cunningham's progressive policies.
Cunningham has also been spending heavily in the lead up to the primary. The former state senator took in $1.4 million from Jan. 1 to Feb. 12, the time that the FEC defines as the pre-primary period, but he spent a larger $1.6 million and had $1.5 million on-hand. Smith, by contrast, reports that she didn't spend so much as a penny during this time on anything but a small loan repayment, and she had only $128,000 on the bank.
Cunningham is also out with a new commercial defending his record, a move that came around the same time that Faith and Power launched an ad arguing that only Smith would support progressive priorities in the Senate. Cunningham speaks directly to the camera and says, "I want you to hear directly from me about these deceptive ads attacking my values. They're just not true."
Cunningham continues, "They're paid for by Mitch McConnell's allies, and it's the very political corruption I'll go to Washington to fight." Cunningham then pledges to "tackle the climate crisis, pass background checks, and make college more affordable."
If Cunningham wins the nomination next month, he'll start out with considerably less money than Tillis in this light red state. The incumbent raised $700,000 during the pre-primary period, which is only about half of what Cunningham took in, but Tillis ended Feb. 12 with a hefty $5.4 million war chest.
● TX-Sen: Democratic state Sen. Royce West is going up with a TV spot that previously aired here. West speaks directly to the camera and delivers "a message for Donald Trump." The candidate declares that he's fought against voter ID, stood up for abortion rights, and worked to improve education. West concludes that he'll be an "experienced leader" who will stand up to Trump.
House
● CA-53: If Democrat Sara Jacobs, who served as a campaign policy adviser for Hillary Clinton, doesn't advance past the March 3 top-two primary, it probably won't be because she didn't spend enough money. Jacobs, who has been self-funding most of her campaign, dropped a hefty $1.3 million from Jan. 1 through Feb. 12 (the time the FEC defines as the pre-primary period), and she still had $262,000 on-hand.
Jacobs also has benefited from $244,000 in TV ads from a group called Forward California funded by her grandparents, Irwin and Joan Jacobs. Irwin Jacobs, a billionaire who founded the San Diego-based telecommunications giant Qualcomm, also spent heavily last cycle to aid his granddaughter's bid for the nearby 49th District.
A few other credible Democrats are running for this reliably blue San Diego seat, and unsurprisingly, they've spent considerably less than Jacobs during the pre-primary period. San Diego City Council president Georgette Gómez, who has the support of the state party and several unions, still deployed a notable $422,000, though, while Marine veteran Janessa Goldbeck spent $115,000. Gómez had a $120,000 to $31,000 cash-on-hand lead over Goldbeck in mid-February.
The only poll we've seen of this race was an early February SurveyUSA poll that showed Jacobs in first with 23%, while Republican Chris Stoddard took second with 10%: Republican Famela Ramos and Gómez each were at 5%, while no one else broke 4%. However, that poll was finished about a month before Election Day, and things may have changed now that Goldbeck and especially Gómez have spent more to get their names out.
● IL-03: Conservative Rep. Dan Lipinski is up with his first TV ad targeting Marie Newman, whom he narrowly defeated in the 2018 Democratic primary, ahead of their March 17 rematch.
Lipinski attacks Newman for backing Medicare for All by using the GOP's favorite talking points. The narrator predicts that Newman would throw seniors off their health care and put them on a government plan and concludes, "Marie Newman would take away your healthcare. Don't let her." Lipinski, who voted against Obamacare, then calls himself "the common-sense Democrat."
● KS-03: Republican Mike Beehler, a former executive at a Kansas City-based engineering firm, confirmed on Friday that he would join the August primary to face freshman Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids. Beehler owns homes both in Florida and in Kansas, but he was registered to vote in the Sunshine State until about a week before he kicked off his campaign. He also unsuccessfully ran for the House back in 1992 in Arizona when he challenged moderate incumbent Jim Kolbe from the right and lost 65-35.
Beehler said that party leaders discouraged him from running because it would be tough for him to raise money in a field that already includes three other Republicans. Beehler did not, however, reveal how he planned to get around this potentially big problem.
● NC-11: VoteVets has endorsed Air Force veteran Moe Davis in the March 3 Democratic primary for this open 57-40 Trump seat.
● NH-01: Newton Selectman Matt Burrill announced Thursday that he would support former Trump aide Matt Mowers in the September GOP primary to take on Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas rather than run himself.
● NY-02: While former Assemblywoman Christine Pellegrino was briefly mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate for this open seat last year, party leaders are instead supporting her bid for the state Senate.
● NY-15: On Friday, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed activist Samelys López, who aided her during her upset 2018 win in the neighboring 14th District, in the June Democratic primary for this open seat in the Bronx.
López struggled to raise money during her opening quarter, but AOC's support could help her attract donors in this crowded and expensive primary. However, it's very possible that the presence of so many prominent candidates could make it easier for conservative New York City Councilor Ruben Diaz Sr. to claim the nomination with just a plurality of the vote.