Today's election eve SurveyUSA poll in the KY-6 special shows that Democrat Ben Chandler has increased his lead over opponent Alice Forgy Kerr (R) since the previous poll. Chandler now leads Kerr 53%-45% (it was 51%-45% last week).
The poll's internals offer lots of good news for Chandler. He leads among "certain" and "probable" voters. He leads in both the 35-54 and 55+ age groups, absolutely destroying Kerr 62%-32% with the 55+ year-old crowd. A 7-point deficit among male voters is more than compensated for by his astounding 19-point margin with female voters! Chandler's overwhelming performance among women is really something when you consider Alice Forgy Kerr would be the first female to ever represent that district. Chandler's only "significant" weakness in this poll seems to be with the 18-34 year-old age group. However, it is likely that older voters will turn-out in larger percentages Tuesday -- as they always do, especially in low turn-out special elections.
The poll really indicates to me that voters here are choosing candidates based upon on the issues. If true, this would bode very well for Democrats going into Nov. 2004. It also looks like Kerr's money/media/McConnell driven campaign to drag Chandler's name through the mud has utterly failed.
So, without getting overly confident here, I'd say Chandler is in pretty good shape headed into tomorrow's election.