Could Gingrich help Santorum?

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday March 15, 2012 · 12:50 PM PDT

2012/03/15 · 12:50

So I've now read a couple of opinion pieces about how Gingrich remaining in the contest could actually help Santorum. Jonathan Karl provides passes on (without necessarily endorsing) the concise argument Gingrich is making for this counterintuitive assertion as follows:

If Gingrich drops out, he argues, two things will happen:
1) His vote gets divided between Santorum and Romney. A larger percentage would go to Santorum, but at least sotme goes to Romney, allowing him to accumulate more delegates; and,
2) Romney is then able to aim all of his considerable firepower at Santorum, destroying him with negative ads the way he twice destroyed Gingrich (in Iowa and Florida).

As I'll explain below, however, the first argument shows a total lack of understanding of how the delegate selection process works, and the second argument is moot. In short, Gingrich remaining in does not help Santorum in the least. Read More

Vote in the Virginia Primary

Galois

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday January 30, 2012 · 5:56 AM PST

2012/01/30 · 05:56

On Super Tuesday (March 6) Virginians will be given very limited choices. There won't be any Democratic primary and the Republican primary will feature only two options Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Virginia does not have party registration, though, so any registered voter can vote in this primary, and I am encouraging all Obama supporters to do so and vote for Paul to give Romney an embarrassing defeat. The best news is that if this should happen Romney can't even complain about Democrats unfairly causing mischief in the Republican primary because he has already admitted that he did took the same type of action in 1992 when he voted for Tsongas in the Democratic primary although supporting Bush. (And at least he could have voted in the Republican primary if he had wanted to do so, Virginians have only one option if they want to vote in a primary). Below the fold I'll go into more detail about some of the issues involved, but this is the core. Virginians, you can and should vote against Romney on March 6th.

Galois

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 28, 2008 · 5:58 PM PDT

2008/05/28 · 17:58

Political prognostication is fun and foolish. I don't mind playing the fool, though. After reading the DNC staff analysis regarding Michigan and Florida and several other diaries on DKos I am prepared to make the following predictions (for entertainment purposes only). Take it for what its worth (not much) and I would love to hear your thoughts.

Galois

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday May 26, 2008 · 6:57 PM PDT

2008/05/26 · 18:57

Back in March Lanny Davis compared Rev. Wright to a member of the KKK. In April he said Howard Dean should resign if he had anything to do with nixing the North Carolina debate. Last week Johh Marshall inducted Davis into the Fox News Liberal Media Bias Cult. But today Davis may have reached a new low with his thinly veiled threat to seek to delegitimize Obama's nomination unless not only are Michigan and Florida seated fully, but Clinton gets at least half of the 55 delegates assigned to uncommitted by the Michigan primary.

Galois

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday May 15, 2008 · 6:34 PM PDT

2008/05/15 · 18:34

The dissent opens with these harsh words:

The power of a state to regulate and control the basic social relationship of marriage of its domiciliaries is here challenged and set at nought by a majority order of this court arrived at not by a concurrence of reasons but by the end result of four votes supported by divergent concepts not supported by authority and in fact contrary to the decisions in this state and elsewhere.

The three member minority of the California Supreme Court lashed out at the judicial activism of the four member majority for changing the way marriage had always been in California. But that wasn't today's marriage case. It was the case of Perez v. Sharp from 60 years ago in which a 4-3 decision of the California Supreme Court made it the first court in the land to declare that the state could not constitutionally prohibit interracial marriages.

Galois

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday May 13, 2008 · 8:12 PM PDT

2008/05/13 · 20:12

This weekend the states of Colorado, Kansas, and Nevada hold their state conventions. In terms of pledged delegates, based on earlier caucus results Obama is expected to take 36/55 in Colorado, 23/32 in Kansas, and 13/25 in Nevada. Three things to watch for this weekend at these conventions:

Galois

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 07, 2008 · 10:19 AM PDT

2008/05/07 · 10:19

The media now seems to be pressing Clinton's surrogates hard to wake up to the mathematical reality that most of us saw months ago, that the delegate math is insurmountable. Clinton needs to either win over a large number of superdelegates who already committed to Obama, or else win the undeclared superdelegates by at least a 3 to 1 margin. Reality says any such massive shift of superdelegate allegiance will be towards the candidate the voters chose, not away from it. So what is their response now? All of that math is meaningless because it doesn't count Michigan and Florida. They hope that by getting into an argument over what happened or will happen in Michigan in Florida they can create enough confusion to lead people to believe that really Clinton might have a chance. I'm not going to get into that argument. Instead I'm going to show that even if you do count Michigan and Flordia, Obama is still the nominee.

Galois

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday April 29, 2008 · 9:39 PM PDT

2008/04/29 · 21:39

When will the Democratic nomination battle end? Five possible times jump out: (1) Shortly after next Tuesday's (May 6) contests in Indiana and North Carolina, (2) Shortly after the May 20 contests in Oregon and Kentucky. (3) Shortly after the last primaries (June 3) in Montana and South Dakota. (4) Shortly after the last delegates are officially selected (June 22). (5) At the convention in Denver. In this diary I want to look at the delegate numbers to see how these scenarios might play out. I'll be using numbers from Obama's campaign results center but these actually tend to be more reliable than most media organizations.

Poll

138 votes Show Results

When will Clinton concede? Shortly after....

138 votes Vote Now!

When will Clinton concede? Shortly after....

May 6 -- when Indiana and North Carolina vote

23 votes

May 20 -- when Obama reaches 1627 for a pledged delegate victory

23 votes

June 3 -- when the last states have voted

21 votes

June 22 -- when the last delegates are selected

17 votes

August 27 -- when the Democratic National Convention votes

15 votes

December 15 -- when the electoral college votes

10 votes

NEVER SURRENDER

29 votes

Yet Another Clinton Lie: Pledged Delegates

Galois

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday April 06, 2008 · 10:31 AM PDT

2008/04/06 · 10:31

Much has been made of Hillary Clinton's recent comments recent remarks that "There is no such thing as a pledged delegate." She also is reported to have claimed that the term "pledged delegate" was a "misnomer." I have seen a few pundits and reporters say that Clinton's claim is technically true. It's not. It's a flat out lie.

Galois

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday March 02, 2008 · 12:45 PM PST

2008/03/02 · 12:45

Some of you may remember that in the early morning hours of February 6 (the morning after Super Duper Tuesday) the Obama campaign "inadvertently" attached an excel spreadsheet that contained their projections on the pledged delegate count for the previous night's contests and all remaining contests.

``This is only one of an infinite number of scenarios,'' Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said. He added that the information was released unintentionally.

Still I thought it might be fun to revisit those projections three weeks later after eleven more contests...

UPDATE (1:20 PM PST): Thanks to Searching for Pericles I updated the Tennessee numbers giving one more delegate to Clinton (and one less to Obama).

Galois

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday February 05, 2004 · 11:56 AM PST

2004/02/05 · 11:56

Courtesy of an AP Tally we get the following result for pledged delegates accumulated in the primaries and caucuses held last Tuesday (pledged delegates to date).

Kerry: 144 (176)
Edwards: 66 (84)
Clark: 50 (50)
Dean: 7 (15)
Sharpton: 2 (2)

I do believe this is an accurate account. The Sharpton numbers seem surprising, but it does seem he won a delegate in Delaware and one in South Carolina. Earlier counts don't reflect this because they were missing some precincts in SC's 6th CD where Sharpton did strong.

So at this point Kerry has won just over half of the pledged delegates available. At this pace he would need the assistance of superdelegates to win the nomination.

Sharton Did Win A Pledged Delegate in DE!

Galois

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday February 04, 2004 · 12:06 PM PST

2004/02/04 · 12:06

Last night, I criticized CNN for awarding Sharpton a pledged DE delegate. While they deserve criticism for much of their coverage, in that case they were right and I was wrong. I was basing my information on The Green Papers which said that all of Delaware's 15 delegates were chosen based on the statewide vote. That is incorrect. Fortunately they link to a .pdf file of the actual selection plan. It turns out the City of Wilmington gets to choose 2 delegates.

The state of Delaware has election results by (state rep.) district. From what I can tell the city of Wilmington covers exactly the first four state districts. What follows is based on that info. Adding up the totals we see that there were 4616 votes cast in Wilmington. So a candidate needed 693 votes to meet the 15% threshold there. Two candidates did that. Sharpton with 709 and Kerry with 2097. Thus there were 2806 qualifying votes. Kerry wins the first delegate (1403 votes) with 694 remaining votes. So Sharpton wins the other delegate! If Sharpton had won a mere 10 less votes in Wilmington there would have been a tie for that delegate. With 11 less votes, Kerry wins the delegate outright.

Newer
Older

RSS

Could Gingrich help Santorum?

Vote in the Virginia Primary

Predictions for Next Week [Open Thread]

Loony Lanny

Harsh Dissent in California Marriage Case

State Conventions This Weekend

Michigan and Florida Math

Endgame (with poll)

Yet Another Clinton Lie: Pledged Delegates

Revisiting Obama's February 6 Projections

Pledged Delagates Won

Sharton Did Win A Pledged Delegate in DE!