Where does the Libertarian vote go?

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Tuesday November 11, 2014 · 8:30 AM PST

2014/11/11 · 08:30

How does the Libertarian vote split between the major parties when there is no Libertarian on the ballot? As it turned out, the election last week gave us a test case. Eric Cantor (R-VA7) resigned immediately after losing his primary a few months ago, necessitating a special election for the remainder of the current term which was on the same ballot as the general election for the upcoming session. There was a Libertarian on the ballot for the general election but not for the special.

sacman701

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Saturday October 13, 2012 · 7:59 PM PDT

2012/10/13 · 19:59

As of now I’m assuming a 2-5 point Obama win (I was at 4-6 before the first debate) and a reasonably good environment for House Dems, but much less than a 2006-level wave, let alone 2008. Of course things can still change. For example, if the national environment gets significantly better for Dems the tilt D races might move to lean D and the pure tossups to tilt D, etc. To me, “lean” means that I would be surprised but not shocked if the underdog wins. “Tilt” means that I expect the favorite to win, but would not be surprised much if the underdog wins.

sacman701

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Saturday July 07, 2012 · 6:04 PM PDT

2012/07/07 · 18:04

Dems control both houses and the governor’s office in Arkansas, yet they managed to draw a congressional map in which all four districts favor the GOP. This exercise is to test whether the Dems could have gotten a better map by passing no bill at all, and instead letting a court handle it.

sacman701

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Saturday February 25, 2012 · 10:47 PM PST

2012/02/25 · 22:47

The court did not draw Massachusetts' new map, as Democrats have total control. This map is intended as a neutral “baseline” to measure how much of an edge the Democrats got from their eventual map. I tried to keep cities, counties, and metro areas together where possible. Apart from 1 and 2 in the west and 9 in the southeast, I picked the district numbers to provide the best color contrast. The map lists D/R “averages” for the district but these appear to be based mainly on Martha Coakley's virtuoso performance in the 2010 special election because 5 of the 9 districts are shown as having a sizable GOP edge and one of the others is about 50-50. PVIs are based on the 2008 presidential election.

Poll

22 votes Show Results

How many of these seats would the GOP win in 2012?

22 votes Vote Now!

How many of these seats would the GOP win in 2012?

15 votes

3 votes

3 or more

4 votes

the Deep South without the VRA

sacman701

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Saturday January 21, 2012 · 11:58 PM PST

2012/01/21 · 23:58

In general, the federal Voting Rights Act requires states to draw majority-minority districts as long as they are compact and respect communities of interest. What might congressional maps of the 5 “deep south” states look like if this were not required?

Poll

119 votes Show Results

Would the South Carolina GOP be better off going for a 7-0 map or a 6-1 with a sink for Clyburn?

119 votes Vote Now!

Would the South Carolina GOP be better off going for a 7-0 map or a 6-1 with a sink for Clyburn?

7-0

17 votes

6-1

102 votes

Kansas as a court might draw it

sacman701

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Saturday October 08, 2011 · 12:54 PM PDT

2011/10/08 · 12:54

In view of the recent attention on a proposed Kansas US House map that was, er, interesting, here is a map showing the state's “baseline” as a court might draw it. By comparing this map to the state's eventual map, we can try to quantify the partisan advantage from control of the redistricting process. This map has one district based on Kansas City, one based on Wichita, and eastern and western “leftover” districts.

sacman701

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Saturday August 27, 2011 · 8:06 PM PDT

2011/08/27 · 20:06

Arizona's redistricting commission just came out with its “grid maps” that are intended as starting points for the actual maps. As the site itself notes, these maps consider only equal population, compactness, and contiguity. They ignore other factors that they are required to consider by state or federal law: VRA compliance, communities of interest, city/county boundaries, and competitiveness. The commission decided to use “option 2”, shown here.

Poll

34 votes Show Results

Assuming Giffords runs, how many House seats will Dems win in 2012 under the first map?

34 votes Vote Now!

Assuming Giffords runs, how many House seats will Dems win in 2012 under the first map?

1 vote

14 votes

4 votes

0 votes

Tennessee as a court might draw it

sacman701

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Saturday July 23, 2011 · 8:28 PM PDT

2011/07/23 · 20:28

The court is not going to draw Tennessee's new map, as Republicans have total control. This map is intended as a neutral “baseline” to measure how much of an edge the Republicans can be expected to gain from their eventual map. Unsurprisingly, the Memphis district is deep blue, the Nashville district is light blue, and everything else is deep red.

sacman701

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Saturday May 21, 2011 · 6:26 PM PDT

2011/05/21 · 18:26

We've seen maps of possible Republican gerrymanders and hypothetical Democratic gerrymanders. At one point someone said they'd like to see a neutral map, so this is attempt to simulate what a court might do. I tried to make compact districts that keep cities, counties, and metro areas together and to keep a majority-black district in the Cleveland area.

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Where does the Libertarian vote go?

House race ratings, 10-13-12

Arkansas as a court might have drawn it

Massachusetts as a court might have drawn it

the Deep South without the VRA

Kansas as a court might draw it

Fixing the Arizona "grid" map

Tennessee as a court might draw it

Ohio as a court might draw it