Today we return again to New York. The senate nomination in this state let much people unhappy.
About new senators nominated by governors in last days, i can tell i think not are first level figures in their states. In a moment where democratic party need solid figures for can up 60 senators in 2010 i think governors failed. All governors (D Paterson, B Ritter, R Blagojevich and R Miner). Because the new senators (K Gillibrand, M Bennet, R Burris and T Kaufman) not are strong candidates for reelection.
I think these governors put in unnecessary risk the 60 senators majority in 2010, and they force democratic party to make an effort in their states for make sure the election of democratic candidates in 2010.
This is a real problem. We can see like new senators from Colorado and New York appear weak in first polls. And in Delaware new senator not will run when they have a former governor like M Castle who can run. I dont like very much this unnecessary risks. That was not necessary.
The nomination of K Gillibrand can be the most right of the four new senators, but i think not quit this risk. K Gillibrand can be the most solid of new senators, but not was one of top-2 candidates in New York, and that make she, and D Paterson governor weak for possible democratic primaries, and for the election against a republican.
Not was very difficult find the strongest candidates in each state. Is so easy find the candidates more liked by people, but governors have other objetives. And now Republicans see weak incumbents, and if they see options of win, they will run with their best.
These four senate seats would must be safe in 2010 elections because they are in blue states and is good political moment for democrats, but governors make that not be sure. I dont like much these risks. D Paterson put in risk not only the senate seat, the governor seat get too in risk now, and the people feel this risk for gubernatorial race, like we can see in next link:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races. Democratic incumbents are safe?
I hope democratic party can find the way for win all these races. Is necessary win all. Well, yesterday was in the poll D Paterson, and today we have A Cuomo, who can run for governor, for senate, or for NY Attorney General again.
I remember much of the dates and comments included in yesterday diary. The list of possible candidates is the same:
- Andrew Mark Cuomo: NY 1957 Secretary of HUD 97-01. NY Attorney General 07- . Lost for Governor 02.
- Jacob J Lew: NY 1955 Director of OMB 98-01. Deputy Secretary of State 09- .
- Richard Charles Holbrooke: NY 1941 US Ambassador to the UN 99-01.
- David Alexander Paterson: NY 1954 Governor of New York 08- . Lieutenant Governor of NY 07-08.
- Anthony David Weiner: NY 1964 USHRep 99- . Lost for Mayor of New York 05.
- Joseph Crowley: NY 1962 USHRep 99- .
- Gary Leonard Ackerman: NY 1942 USHRep 83- .
- Eliot Lance Engel: NY 1947 USHRep 89- .
- José Enrique Serrano: PRI NY 1943 USHRep 90- .
- Nydia Margarita Velázquez: PRI NY 1953 USHRep 93- .
- Gregory Weldon Meeks: NY 1953 USHRep 98- .
- Yvett Diane Clarke: NY 1964 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
- Daniel B Maffei: NY 1968 USHRep 09- . Lost for House 06.
- Matthew Scott Murphy: NY 1970 USHRep 09- . (updated)
- Jerrold Lewis Nadler: NY 1947 USHRep 92- .
- Carolyn Bosher Maloney: NC NY 1948 USHRep 93- .
- Caroly McCarthy: NY 1944 USHRep 97- .
- Steven Israel: NY 1958 USHRep 01- .
- Brian Higgins: NY 1959 USHRep 05- .
- Michael Angelo Arcuri: NY 1959 USHRep 07- .
- Eric J J Massa: SC NY 1959 USHRep 09- . Lost for House 06.
- Michael E McMahon: NY 1957 USHRep 09- .
- Timothy H Bishop: NY 1950 USHRep 03- .
- John Joseph Hall: MD NY 1948 USHRep 07- .
- Paul David Tonko: NY 1949 USHRep 09- .
- Elizabeth Holtzman: NY 1941 USHRep 73-81. Lost for Senate 80 and 92. Lost for NY Comptroller 93.
- Thomas Joseph Downey: NY 1949 USHRep 75-93. Lost for House 92.
- Floyd Harold Flake: CA NY 1945 USHRep 87-97.
- Michael Robert McNulty: NY 1947 USHRep 89-09.
- Michael Patrick Forbes: NY 1952 USHRep 95-01. Lost for House 00.
- Alfred DelBello: NY 1944 Lieutenant Governor of NY 83-85. Lost for NY Senate 94.
- Thomas P DiNapoli: NY 1954 NY Comptroller 07- . Lost for Nassau County Executive 01.
- Thomas R Suozzi: NY 1962 Lost for Governor 06.
This is the same list for republicans:
- George Elmer Pataki: NY 1945 Governor of New York 95-06.
- Christopher J Lee: NY 1964 USHRep 09- .
- John Michael McHugh: NY 1948 USHRep 93- .
- Peter T King: NY 1944 USHRep 93- .
- Bruce Faulkner Caputo: NY 1943 USHRep 77-79. Lost for Senate 82. Lost for Lieutenant Governor of NY 78.
- William Carney: NY 1942 USHRep 79-87.
- John LeBoutillier: NY 1953 USHRep 81-83. Lost for House 82.
- L William Paxon: NY 1954 USHRep 89-99. Reside in Viginia?
- Susan Molinari: NY 1958 USHRep 90-97. Reside in Virginia?
- David O'Brien Martin: NY 1944 USHRep 81-93. Reside in Maryland?
- Raymond Joseph McGrath: NY 1942 USHRep 81-93.
- James Thomas Walsh: NY 1949 USHRep 89-09.
- John Francis Quinn: NY 1951 USHRep 93-05.
- Enrico Anthony Lazio: NY 1958 USHRep 93-01. Lost for Senate 00.
- David A Levy: NY 1953 USHRep 93-95. Lost for House 94.
- Daniel Frisa: NY 1955 USHRep 95-97. Lost for House 96.
- Felix J Grucci: NY 1951 USHRep 01-03. Lost for House 02.
- John R Kuhl: NY 1943 USHRep 05-09. Lost for House 08.
- Mary Donohue: NY 19?? Lieutenant Governor of NY 99-06.
- Rudolph William Louis Giuliani: NY 1944 Mayor of New York 94-01. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 00.
- John Faso: NY 1952 Lost for Governor 06. Lost for NY Comptroller 02.
- C Scott Vanderhoef: NY 19?? Lost for Lieutenant Governor 06.
- John Flanagan: NY 19??
- George H Winner: NY 1949
- Maggie A Brooks: NY 1955
- Matthew R C Evans: NY 19??
- Dan Tobin: NY 19??
I dont include other republicans who was involved in scandals, who come from Bush cabinets, who left the party (M Bloomberg included) or endorse Obama (W Weld included). I make the same for democratic list.
I dont think M Bloomberg left republican party thinking in run with republicans for governor. And not was very serious make open New York term limits for run a year later for governor. M Bloomberg is respected but if try that can be so vulnerable.
Like we can see the list of democratic party is much more solid than republican. And they need two candidates for senate and a candidate for governor in next electoral round.
P King seems will run for K Gillibrand senate seat, and R Giuliani seems can run for governor. Is very near their best, and in this moment not seems very strong. I think R Giuliani's popularity decline after their unsuccesful presidential campaing, but internal figths in democratic side can make Giuliani up.
Only former governor G Pataki seems in same or more high level in republican side, and sound too for senate and for governor. Seems G Pataki make feel any danger but seems too the people think democratic candidates can defeat Pataki. Not seems easy G Pataki run against R Giuliani and former Mayor seems near run for governor. We can see what think or feel the people about G Pataki possibly future races in these links:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states I
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states II.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states III.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: All gubernatorial races.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---
The states with democratic incumbents what seems more easy for win again are:
NH-Gov: Incumbent J Lynch (D-1952) win in 2008 with 70%.
CO-Gov: Incumbent W Ritter (D-1956) win in 2006 with 56%.
IA-Gov: Incumbent C Culver (D-1966) win in 2006 with 54%.
WI-Gov: Incumbent J Doyle (D-1945) win in 2006 with 53%.
MA-Gov: Incumbent D Patrick (D-1956) win in 2006 with 55%.
We can see results for these states in next link:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races. Democratic incumbents are safe?
More interesting races:
AR-Gov: Open R vs M Beebe (D-1946) ? after 13 votes = 09,231 => Safe Democratic
MD-Gov: R Ehrlich (R-1957) vs M O'Malley (D-1963) ? af 16 votes = 08,750 => Safe Democratic
IL-Gov: Open R vs P Quinn (D-1948) ? after 21 votes = 08,571 => Safe Democratic
NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs A Cuomo (D-1957) ? af 18 votes = 08,333 => Likely Democratic
OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs J Kitzhaber (D-1947) ? af 12 votes = 08,194 => Likely Democratic
2 OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs ? after 06 votes = 08,056 => Likely Democratic
OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 15 votes = 07,889 => Likely Democr
CA-Gov: Open R vs J Brown (D-1938) ? after 32 votes = 07,865 => Likely Democratic
ME-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs N Abercrombie (D-1938) ? af 11 votes = 07,727 => Likely Democr
VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs H Dean (D-1948) ? aft 30 votes = 07,667 => Likely Democratic
2 HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs ? after 16 votes = 07,396 => Likely Democratic
NJ-Gov: C Christie (R-1962) vs J Corzine (D- 1947) ? af 17 votes = 07,353 => Likely Democratic
NM-Gov: Open R vs D Denish (D-1949) ? after 22 votes = 07,273 => Likely Democratic
2 OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs ? after 12 votes = 07,083 => Leans Democratic
2 CA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 44 votes = 07,045 => Leans Democratic
2 NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs D Paterson (D-1954) ? af 33 votes = 06,768 => Leans Democr
NV-Gov: J Gibbons (R-1944) vs ? after 21 votes = 06,746 => Leans Democratic
RI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 06,528 => Leans Democratic
PA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 15 votes = 06,000 => Leans Democratic
MI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 30 votes = 05,889 => Leans Democratic
VA-Gov: R McDonnell (R-1954) vs ? after 27 votes = 05,494 => Toss-Up
AZ-Gov: J Brewer (R-1944) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,907 => Toss-Up
MN-Gov: T Pawlenty (R-1960) vs M Dayton (D-1947) ? after 39 votes = 04,573 => Toss-Up
2 VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,352 => Toss-Up
FL-Gov: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? after 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
CT-Gov: J Rell (R-1946) vs ? after 33 votes = 03,232 => Leans Republican
And for see about other difficult races for democrats like:
TN-Gov: Open seat. P Bredesen (D-1943) win in 2006 with 69%.
OK-Gov: Open seat. B Henry (D-1963) win in 2006 with 66%.
TX-Gov: Open seat?. R Perry (R-1950) win in 2006 with 39%. K Hutchison (R-1943) like run.
WY-Gov: Open seat. D Freudenthal (D-1950) win in 2006 with 70%.
KS-Gov: Open seat. K Sebelius (D-1948) win in 2006 with 58%. S Brownback (R-1956) like run.
SC-Gov: Open seat. M Sanford (R-1960) win in 2006 with 55%.
GA-Gov: Open seat. S Perdue (R-1946) win in 2006 with 58%.
AL-Gov: Open seat. B Riley (R-1944) win in 2006 with 58%.
SD-Gov: Open seat. M Rounds (R-1954) win in 2006 with 62%.
AK-Gov: Incumbent S Palin (R-1964) win in 2006 with 48%.
ID-Gov: Incumbent B Otter (R-1942) win in 2006 with 53%.
NE-Gov: Incumbent D Heineman (R-1948) win in 2006 with 73%.
visit next diaries:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Guvernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat II
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Hardest gubernatorial races.
All the polls are open if you like to vote.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes go up and when end the procedure.