Last appointment of K Sebelius like Secretary of HHS make change very much this race. All people was thinking in K Sebelius like candidate for senate with good chance of win this seat, but now she will be in the cabinet. That make i must change the old diary about this race for make better this serie.
Im not critic with this nomination. I think the cabinet need too the bests and i think K Sebelius can be one of bests. This nomination make up to governor's office Mark Parkinson, a former republican. That is not bad, i think can be good.
With S Brownback senator running for governor, i think M Parkinson must not run for reelection. I think M Parkinson is rigth. And the seat of senate continue open, and he can run for senate like incumbent governor, why not? We can think in this option today.
All we know republicans are very strongs in Kansas. Now two US House Representatives are running for republican nomination, and they have too any former governor and senator relatively young. Until now Rep. T Tiahrt lead polls in republican side.
But last years, with K Sebelius, any democratic candidate can be too in so important offices in this state.
This is the list of possible candidates:
- Mark V Parkinson: KS 1957 Governor of Kansas 09- . Lieutenant Governor of KS 07-09.
- Dennis Moore: KS 1945 USHRep 99- .
- Nancy Boyda: KS 1955 USHRep 07-09. Lost for House 04 and 08.
- John E Moore: WV KS Lieutenant Governor of Kansas 03-07.
- Stephen Six: KS 1965 KS Attorney General 08- .
- Dennis McKinney: KS 1960 KS State Treasurer 09- .
The list is short, and so weak. S Six and D McKinney are nominated by governor K Sebelius for vacants in his offices, and J Moore and M Parkinson run until now in same ticket of K Sebelius. No-one of they win a statewide election. Only D Moore seems can win his reelection in a federal race.
Mark Parkinson maybe the best placed candidate for this race. Of course will be difficult he win, but we dont know now how difficult can be this race. For all that M Parkinson is in the poll today.
Now, D Glickman live out of Kansas, if im not wrong, but i think Democratic Party from Kansas don't must forget D Glickman, because he is the democratic congressman who served for largest time in Kansas history (77-95) before be appointed Secretary of Agriculture by B Clinton.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
--- 01,429 ---
--- 02,857 ---
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
--- 07,142 ---
--- 08,571 ---
--- 10,000 ---
For see about senate races with the strongest democratic incumbents:
HI-Sen: Incumbent D Inouye (D-1924) win in 2004 76%. Biggest danger (low): L Lingle (R-1953).
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 71%. Without danger.
VT-Sen: Incumbent P Leahy (D-1940) win in 2004 71%. Biggest danger (low): J Douglas (R-1951).
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 65%. Without danger.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 63%. Without danger.
IN-Sen: Incumbent E Bayh (D-1955) win in 2004 62%. Biggest danger (low): M Daniels (R-1949).
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 55%. Without danger.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 55%. Without danger.
AR-Sen: Incumbent B Lincoln (D-1960) win in 2004 56%. Biggest danger (low): M Huckabee (R-1955).
ND-Sen: Incumbent B Dorgan (D-1942) win in 2004 68%. Biggest danger (low): J Hoeven (R-1957).
CA-Sen: A Schwarzenegger (R-1947) vs B Boxer (D-1940) ? after 24 votes = 08,750 Safe Dem
IL-Sen: open R vs open D ? after 23 votes = 08,406 => Likely Democratic
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? after 65 votes = 07,923 => Likely Democr
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 34 votes = 07,843 => Likely Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 12 votes = 07,500 => Likely Democr
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 44 votes = 07,273 => Likely Democratic
CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 32 votes = 06,875 => Leans Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan (D-1961) ? after 10 votes = 06,833 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? after 30 votes = 06,333 => Leans Democr
2 OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,304 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 20 votes = 05,917 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 36 votes = 05,602 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,101 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 40 votes = 04,875 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 56 votes = 03,661 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
KS-Sen: open R vs M Parkinson (D-1957) ? after 15 votes = 01,111 => Safe Republican
*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.