The next installment in the Wyoming Rule series looks at my home state of New York. Under the Wyoming Rule, NY suffers the same problems as other big-city states: it's too easy to pack Democrats into compact and logical districts. One of my goals for the city area was to ditch some of the coalition districts and replace them with districts where one minority had an absolute majority. This might result in some current Democratic incumbents being dumped for other minority candidates.
Previous diaries:
ID, NM, NC, OK, SC, TX, VA, WA
Current seat count: 33D-77R
Long Island
NY-01 Tim Bishop (D-Southampton)
Rep. Bishop's eastern Long Island district loses some of its western area due to the smaller district size. This shifts the district a point Democratic.
53% Obama 46% McCain
D+1
NY-02 Steve Israel (D-Huntington)
Rep. Israel lives just outside this district, but he could run here. However, the composition of this central Suffolk County district has changed pretty dramatically. It can no longer reach into Nassau County, which makes it about 6 points less Democratic.
50% Obama 49% McCain
R+2
NY-03 Steve King (R-Seaford)
Like Rep. Israel, Rep. King sees his district becomes less favorable. He makes out a little bit better as his western Suffolk/eastern Nassau district becomes only about 2 points more Democratic.
50% Obama 49% McCain
R+2
NY-04 Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola)
Rep. McCarthy is another one who doesn't quite live in her new district. But her district, still entirely within Nassau County, becomes a point or two more favorable so she won't mind running here.
60% Obama 40% McCain
D+7
Queens/Brooklyn/Manhattan
NY-06 Gregory Meeks (D-Queens)
Rep. Meeks district remains a black majority district. It now takes in some black areas of Nassau as well as southeastern Queens. Racial composition remains pretty similar to what it is today. The district becomes about 10 points less Democratic, but he can well afford it.
26% white, 54% black, 13% Hispanic
79% Obama 21% McCain
D+26
NY-07 Open
I'm calling this a new district in Queens. This district becomes a coalition district with the highest Asian percentage of any district outside of Hawaii, LA, or San Fran. I think it has a decent chance of electing an Asian-American representative. It is safely Democratic.
33% white, 42% Asian, 15% Hispanic
66% Obama 33% McCain
D+15
NY-08 Joseph Crowley (D-Queens)
Rep. Cowley's district goes from a coalition district to a Hispanic-majority district, which means he may have a tough time in a primary here. It is still a very safe district, however, and if he makes through the primary, he will have no problem holding the seat.
13% white, 15% black, 52% Hispanic, 18% Asian
83% Obama, 16% McCain
D+30
NY-09 Anthony Weiner (D-Queens)
The Weiner district remains intact as it is needed to soak up a lot of white voters. This 61% white district that snakes through Queens and Brooklyn also gets about a point safer for the embattled congressman.
56% Obama 43% McCain
D+6
NY-10 Yvette Clark (D-Brooklyn)
Rep. Clark maintains a black majority district in Brooklyn. It gets a couple more points Democratic.
17% white, 65% black, 11% Hispanic
92% Obama 8% McCain
D+40
NY-11 Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn)
Instead of a coalition district, Rep. Velazquez now gets a Hispanic-majority district in Brooklyn. I had some difficulty making a compact district here while making a Hispanic majority, but I was eventually able to do it.
16% white, 12% black, 51% Hispanic, 16% Asian
87% Obama 13% McCain
D+33
NY-12 Ed Towns (D-Brooklyn)
Rep. Towns maintains a black majority district in Brooklyn. The black percentage is down slightly, but the Obama percentage is even higher than it was before.
16% white, 60% black, 19% Hispanic
94% Obama 6% McCain
D+41
NY-13 Open
This is a new [Republican leaning!] district in south Brooklyn. It is majority white and 26% Asian. I expect this district to elect a Republican.
49% Obama 50% McCain
R+3
NY-14 Mike Grimm (R-Staten Island)
Rep. Grimm's Staten Island district gets a bit safer by adding some Republican areas from Rep. Weiner's district in Brooklyn.
45% Obama 54% McCain
R+7
NY-15 Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan)
Rep. Nadler maintains a Manhattan/Brooklyn district, but it gets quite a bit more Manhattan in this configuration. It also gets more Democratic, not that he needed it.
86% Obama 13% McCain
D+34
NY-16 Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan)
Rep. Maloney's district now adds some of Brooklyn to its Manhattan and Queens base.
82% Obama 17% McCain
D+30
NY-17 Open
This is the third new district added to the NYC area. It is a safe Democratic seat in midtown Manhattan.
84% Obama 15% McCain
D+32
Bronx
NY-05 Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights)
Rep. Ackerman's district seems some very significant changes due to the smaller district size and the fact that the bordering districts are all minority-majority. It is now 67% white and crosses over to Bronx and Westchester counties. CPVI goes 10 points more Republican and this district becomes a Democratic-leaning tossup.
53% Obama 46% McCain
D+2
NY-18 Charlie Rangel (D-Manhattan)
Rep. Rangel's district shifts 10 points more Hispanic to make it a Hispanic-majority district. Rep. Rangel might have quite a bit of trouble getting through a primary in this district.
14% white, 22% black, 58% Hispanic
92% Obama 7% McCain
D+40
NY-19 Jose Serrano (D-Bronx)
Rep. Serrano maintains his Hispanic-majority district in Spanish Harlem.
3% white, 30% black, 65% Hispanic
95% Obama 5% McCain
D+41
NY-20 Eliot Engel (D-Bronx)
Rep. Engel gets a coalition district contained to Bronx and Westchester. It becomes quite a bit less white and may end up dumping Engel for a minority representative.
30% white, 38% black, 26% Hispanic
79% Obama 20% McCain
D+25
Eastern upstate
NY-21 Nita Lowey (D-Harrison)
Rep. Lowey's Westchester/Rockland district retains the same partisan breakdown as before. It should be a safe Democratic district.
61% Obama 38% McCain
D+9
NY-22 Nan Hayworth (R-Mount Kisco)
Rep. Hayworth's district gives up Putnam County and its part of Dutchess County and now extends up to Sullivan County. Partisan breakdown remains the same.
51% Obama 48% McCain
R+3
NY-23 Chris Gibson (R-Kinderhook)
Rep. Gibson's district doesn't change all the much. It runs along the east side of the Hudson from Albany all the way down to Putnam County, where it crosses over into Orange. Partisanship stays about the same
51% Obama 47% McCain
R+2
NY-24 Open
This is a new central NY district in the Catskill Mountain area. McCain won this district and in most years, it could be expected to go Republican.
48% Obama 50% McCain
R+4
NY-25 Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam)
This is Rep. Tonko's Capital Area district. It takes in Amesterdam, Schnectady, Rotterdam, Albany, Troy, and Saratoga Springs. It becomes a couple points safer for the Democrat.
60% Obama 38% McCain
D+8
NY-29 Maurice Hinchey (D-Saugerties)
Here's my district. I keep Hinchey's gerrymandered district that starts down in Kingston and Poughkeepsie and makes its way up to Binghamton and Ithaca. It loses some of the Republican areas at the edges and move one point more Democratic.
60% Obama 39% McCain
D+7
Central upstate
NY-26 Ann Marie Buerkle (R-Syracuse)
Rep. Buerkle is a big loser due to the smaller district sizes. Her district compacts around Syracuse and becomes a few more points Democratic, good enough to ensure her defeat in 2012.
58% Obama 40% McCain
D+5
NY-27 Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld)
Rep. Hanna maintains about half of its Utica/Rome based district. He picks up all of Madison and Oswego counties. The district shifts a couple points more Republican as it becomes a McCain district.
49% Obama 50% McCain
R+4
NY-28 Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh)
Rep. Owens' Adirondack/North County district will remain a tossup district. Obama won here, but it has a Republican CPVI.
52% Obama 46% McCain
R+1
NY-30 Tom Reed (R-Corning)
Rep. Reed gets a Finger Lakes based district that stretches from Rochester down to Elmira. Partisan breakdown stays about the same.
47% Obama 51% McCain
R+5
NY-31 Louise Slaughter (D-Fairport)
Rep. Slaughter's district loses the earmuffs and becomes a soley Rochester/Monroe County based district. This makes the district quite a bit less Democratic, but it still should be safe for her.
63% Obama 36% McCain
D+9
Western upstate
NY-32 Open
The last new seat in New York is surprisingly a western NY district. It is a combination of leftover areas of Slaughter's, Higgins', Reed's, and Hochul's districts. It is the safest Republican district in the state.
44% Obama 56% McCain
R+9
NY-33 Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg)
Rep. Hochul gets an Erie/Niagara County district that is one point more Democratic, but can hardly be considered safe. As a bonus, she actually lives in this district.
47% Obama 51% McCain
R+5
NY-34 Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo)
Rep. Higgins now gets a much safer and much more logical Buffalo/Niagara Falls urban district.
67% Obama 31% McCain
D+14
So there we have NY. I'm calling this a 25-9 Democratic map, which is +3D and +2R from current. Although, with this new map, there are several districts which are now called into play. No doubt if Democrats had the trifecta here, they could probably manage 30 seats.