Bonjour, mademoiselle! I'd like to see le tits now!
I'm bored amid these 9 inches of snow that we got this week, so that must mean I'm writing up the next installment of my redistricting series earlier than intended.
Click below the orange squiggle if you would like to see le tits now.
Part 1 -- North Dakota, South Dakota
Part 2 -- Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire
Part 3 -- Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska
Part 4 -- West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada
Part 5 -- Utah, Kansas, West Virginia
Part 6 -- Mississippi, Iowa
Part 7 -- Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon
Part 8 -- Kentucky
Here's a state that I wish I were in this week so that I wouldn't have to fuck around with all of this snow and ice. I certainly don't want to live here. i just want to stay here for the week. If anything, I would rather live in Atlanta. That city fits me much better.
But the state of Georgia will have to wait for its own report later this year. Tonight, we're dealing with South Carolina. This state would gain three seats in the Cube Root House. Those seats would pretty much work in our favor whether we gerrymander the state or not.
Here is my positive gerrymander:
1st District (blue): We're starting in west central portion of the Palmetto State. Going southwest from the capital of Columbia, we have the cities of Lexington and Aiken. This is the home of Joe Wilson (R-Liar Springdale), and we'll be kicking him around for a long time in this 64.9% McCain district. Safe R
2d District (green): Going up the Georgia border, we get this 62.9% McCain district. Greenwood, Newberry, Laurens, and the conservative southern parts of the Greenville-Spartanburg metro area. Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens) is a lock. Safe R
3d District (purple): Here's another of those districts that really makes me proud. This baconmander includes Anderson, Greenville, Spartanburg, Gaffney, Chester, Rock Hill, and Lancaster. Two incumbents live here--Trey Gowdy (R-Spartanburg) and Mick Mulvaney (R-Lancaster)--but neither one will want to run here. 53.8% Obama. A good pickup opportunity that we would need in order to reclaim the House. Lean D
4th District (red): This northwestern district encircles the head of my purple snake. (That is not one of Sean Connery's sexual innuendo.) You have the outer portions of Anderson, the northern half of Greenville County, and extreme northwestern Spartanburg. Gowdy may run here, even though very little of this territory is familiar to him. This part of the state is in the current 3d District represented by Duncan. Gowdy really has no other option, though. If he runs in the new 3d District, he will surely lose. He could attempt a primary challenge against Duncan in the new 2d or a possible primary challenge against Mulvaney in the new 5th, but that could be political suicide solely on the geography. This district is appropriately colored red because it's the most Republican of the ten--70.7% McCain. Any Republican will win, whether or not it's Gowdy. Safe R
5th District (gold): North central part of the state. Northern Spartanburg down to Camden. Most of this area is already familiar to Mulvaney, so he should have no trouble winning in this 63.7% McCain district. Safe R
6th District (teal): Columbia, Sumter, and Winnsboro. Black-plurality district (49.2%), but the additional 4.4% Hispanic population make this a minority-majority district. Assistant House Democratic Leader Jim Clyburn (D-Columbia) sees most of his current district go toward the construction of the new 8th District. Despite that, he should be happy with this 65.8% Obama district. Safe D
7th District (dark gray): Starts in the outskirts of Darlington, Florence, and Sumter. It then proceeds downward to some of the western portions of Charleston. Mark Sanford (R-Appalachian Trail Charleston) currently represents very little of this district, but he would have no choice other than running in this 54.9% McCain district. The other two Charleston districts are blue. Safe R
8th District (slate blue): Here's where most of Clyburn's district went. Orangeburg, Beaufort, and the coast of Charleston. Open seat. 52.8% Obama. Suddenly, South Carolina isn't looking so red. Lean D
9th District (cyan): Highly obscene district that starts all the way up in Bennettsville near the North Carolina border before collecting most of Charleston. Darlington, Florence, and Marion are also picked up. I don't know if the VRA will let me get away with the shape of this district, even though it's minority-majority (47.7% African-American, 4.5% Hispanic). Heck, I don't know if South Carolina would even require a second VRA district. But here it is. Open seat. 61.4% Obama. Safe D
10th District (deep pink): The final district starts in Dillon and runs clockwise to the conservative northern suburbs of Charleston. Myrtle Beach is the anchor. Tom Rice (R-Myrtle Beach) would feel right at home in this 60.6% McCain district, since he already represents most of this area. Safe R
12 Electoral Votes: One day, this state may go purple. But that won't happen in November 2016. Call it Lean R.
Now let's look at South Carolina without the gerrymanders. This map is actually not that bad. One of those Lean D districts goes to Safe D, and the remaining Lean D becomes a tossup under a Republican incumbent with beaucoup baggage (you know the one).
1st District (blue): A couple of precinct shifts, but pretty much the same as the 1st District above. 64.7% McCain. Wilson will probably be shouting "YOU LIE!" at a couple of more Democratic presidents before he retires or dies. Safe R
2d District (green): This district sticks to the Georgia border rather than dipping into the southern parts of Greenville and Spartanburg. Duncan loses about a point of redness, but he wouldn't care. 62.2% McCain. Safe R
3d District (purple): Most of Greenville County, then creeping over to Clemson. With the undoing of my baconmander, this northern open seat goes from blue to red. 61.3% McCain. Don't worry. We'll get that seat back in the southern part of the state. Safe R
4th District (red): Spartanburg and northern Greenville. This district is pretty much congruent to Gowdy's current district. 63.4% McCain. Safe R
5th District (gold): It's still Gaffney to Camden. It's still similar to Mulvaney's current district. 56.3% McCain. A lot less conservative than his gerrymandered 5th District because Chester County is pretty blue and it's included here (while it was part of the 3d District baconmander earlier). I don't think Mulvaney will mind, though. Safe R
6th District (teal): A few precincts are changed, but it's still based in Columbia. Still a minority-majority district. Clyburn remains entrenched in this 64.5% Obama district. Safe D
7th District (dark gray): Central and northeastern sections are together this time. Florence anchors this narrowly minority-majority district (50.6% non-white/49.4% white). Open seat. 53.7% Obama. Seat could flip Republican in a midterm due to minority drop-off. For 2016, though, I'm willing to call this Safe D.
8th District (slate blue): Myrtle Beach down to the coast of Charleston. 58.8% McCain. Rice and Sanford may have no choice but to fight it out in a primary because Charleston's other two districts are pretty much inhospitable for hard-line Republicans like Sanford. Safe R
9th District (cyan): Most of Charleston is here, along with the northern suburbs. 50.5% Obama. This would be Sanford's second-best option, although this is far from the R+11 district that he currently represents. As I said a second ago, he may bolt for the 8th rather than take his chances here. Tossup with Sanford, Lean D without Sanford.
10th District (deep pink): Similar to the gerrymandered 8th District, but bluer. 54.4% Obama. This is the Charleston district that Sanford will definitely avoid. Safe D
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AR, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 38 (added SC-6, SC-9)
Lean D: 19 (added SC-3, SC-8)
Tossup: 9
Lean R: 7
Safe R: 48 (added SC-1, SC-2, SC-4, SC-5, SC-7, SC-10)
Total: 57 D, 9 Toss, 55 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 36 (added SC-6, SC-7, SC-10)
Lean D: 14
Tossup: 10 (added SC-9)
Lean R: 9
Safe R: 52 (added SC-1, SC-2, SC-3, SC-4, SC-5, SC-8)
Total: 50 D, 10 Toss, 61 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AR, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8) = 31
Tossup: NE (1) = 1
Lean R: MT (4), SC (12) = 16
Safe R: AK (4), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 85
Total: 71 D, 1 Toss, 101 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7) = 14
Tossup: IA (9), NV (8) = 17
Lean R: MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 17
Safe R: AK (4), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 85
Total: 54 D, 17 Toss, 102 R