Georgia specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on 102 delegate allocation. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Georgia has whopping 14 congressional districts and quite a few with odd number delegates. Thus advantages can be accrued fast.
Basic Data: Georgia has 102 delegates available. There are 14 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations, there are 16 different delegate allocation units. The delegates are heavily 4 per district and some smatterings of 5, 6 and 7. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 4 from CD3 CD7 CD8 CD9 CD10 CD11 CD14 ::: 5 from CD1 CD2 CD6 CD12 ::: 6 from CD4 CD13 ::: and 7 from CD5. Additional 13 PLEOs and 22 At-large delegates are allocated based on state-wide results. Georgia operates an open primary.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below
I have grouped the Congressional Districts which have same available delegates together since the same thresholds and triggers apply to them. The threshholds %s are relative to eachother. For example, this means that a vote results of 49-48-2 is effectively, 50.5 — 49.5. This is derived from 49/(49+48) vs 48/(49+48)
Delegates acquired
out of available
|
4 del
cd3 cd7 cd8 cd9
cd10 cd11 cd14
|
5 del
cd1 cd2 cd6 cd12
|
6 del
cd4
|
7 del
cd5
|
Delegate Allocation Thresholds/Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
21.4 |
3 del |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
35.7 |
4 del |
85 |
70 |
58.3 |
50 |
5 del |
|
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
6 del |
|
|
85 |
78.6 |
7 del |
|
|
|
85 |
For 4 Delegates at CD3 CD7 CD8 CD9 CD10 CD11 CD4: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5% to 62.5% will still have delegates split 2-2. To gain a definitive advantage a candidate needs to cross 62.5% trigger resulting in a delegate split of 3-1. With 7 districts, crossing 62.5% trigger would be of enormous value in terms of delegate advantage. It would give a 14 delegate advantage.
For 5 Delegates at CD1 CD2 CD6 CD12: First delegate acquird at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split seems a bit too much of a demand on any campaign. These districts becomes very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Both campaigns probablyhave that 30% support needed for 2 delegates. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour.
For 6 Delegates at CD4: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. To get a 5-1 split is going to take a 75% support level. Even in candidates home states and districts we have not yet seen this kind of support. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes.
For 7 Delegates at CD5: Since these have an odd number of delegates, Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. 6-1 split happens at 78.6. Again this is an unlikely scenario. if anyone will be able to cross the threshhold of 64.3% to force a 5-2 split or be content with 4-3 split.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 22 At-Large delegates and 13 pledged PLEO delegates. While it is the same vote share, the odd number of PLEO allocations would reward state-wide winner with overall at least one delegate advantages.
For 13 Pledged PLEOs: Once again due to large number of delegates in this category support level movements are more rewarding. Roughly 7.7% votes translate to 1 delegate. The table below shows the PLEO specific triggers points. The at large delegates listed here are corresponding numbers at PLEO percentages. A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
Vote share% |
15% |
19.3% |
27% |
34.7% |
42.4% |
50% |
57.7% |
65.4% |
73.1% |
Statewide Delegate for Vote Share Table - PLEOs
PLEOs |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Corresponding
At-Large Dels |
3 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
In this category, at 15% vote share 2 Delegates are acquired. Third one at 19.3%. Each subsequent delegate from then on at 7.73% increments. Advanatge crossover of (7-6) split occurs at 50%. Further advanatge would need beyond 57.7%
For 22 Delegates Statewide (At-Large): As long as the 15% minimum threshold for viability is crossed, the basic delegate share of statewide is simply 4.5% votes translates to 1 delegate. Table below shows some interesting trigger % points for at large-delegates. Corresponding number of PLEOs at the same percentage points are also shown.
Vote share% |
15% |
16% |
25% |
34.1% |
47.8% |
52.3% |
56.8% |
61.4% |
65.9% |
Statewide Delegate for Vote Share Table - At-Large
At-Large Dels |
2 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
Corresponding
PLEOs |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
In this category, 15% Threshholds for qualifying gets 3 delegates straightaway. Fourth one very cheaply at 16%. each subsequent 4.5% gives an extra delegate. Even split of (11-11) takes place in the range of 47.8% to 52.3%. Even with the high % threshold of individual CD triggers which are harder to cross, the overall statewide vote % will be very crucial in delivering extra delegate advantages. There are many thresholds in to 50% to 60% levels for acquisition of extra delegate advanatges.
Taking into account both the district based and state-wide allocations, the 50% trigger point for tipping becomes extra relevant as the split and flip takes place in 6 different places. So 50% threshhold in every CD is worth 6 delegate advantage.
Next bit is my personal opinion: I suspect every odd delegate break will go on Clinton favour. with mostly breaking at 2-2, 3-2, 3-3, 4-3. If Sanders can prevent Clinton from crossing 62.5% barrier then the overall advantage is lower. Most of the contest is likely to be getting statewide share at 50-60% region for those extra triggers all over that section. I am estimating total at just 58-44 delegate split. Even the much vaunted Georgia will probably will not give any significantly large delegate advantage. It is those 4 delegate districts which need high 62.5% for trigger.
Previously covered states: Arkansas and Alabama and South-Carolina and Virginia and Massachusetts and New-Hampshire and Vermont
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Currently I am running through the list of states. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.