Candidate filing has closed for California's March 3 top-two primary, which will be held on the same day as the state's presidential primary, and we’ll be running down the state of play in key congressional races, as well as some important local races, here. The secretary of state will publish an official candidate list in the coming weeks, though several counties and media organizations have unofficial lists available.
California's top-two primary rules require all the candidates running for Congress and for state office to compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries. The two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, will then advance to the Nov. 3 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in March by taking a majority of the vote except in some nonpartisan elections for local offices, which we'll discuss in separate sections.
CA-01: Democrat Audrey Denney narrowly outraised GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa last year and held him to a 55-45 win, and she's seeking a rematch this cycle. Denney ended September with a $379,000 to $342,000 cash-on-hand advantage, but she'll need a lot to go right to win in this 56-37 Trump seat in northeastern California.
CA-04: Last year, GOP Rep. Tom McClintock won re-election by a modest 54-46 in a seat that Donald Trump carried 54-39. McClintock's only Democratic opponent this time appears to be businesswoman Brynne Kennedy (another Democrat we'd previously mentioned, Placerville Union School Board member Sean Frame, dropped out in September).
McClintock held a $549,000 to $330,000 cash-on-hand lead over Kennedy at the end of September for this seat, which includes the northern Sacramento suburbs and the Sierra Nevada foothills and mountains.
CA-08: GOP Rep. Paul Cook is retiring from this conservative seat, which includes northern San Bernardino County and the High Desert, in order to run for a seat on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors. The only sitting elected official running to succeed Cook is Assemblyman Jay Obernolte, who has endorsements from the congressman and a number of other prominent San Bernardino County Republicans. Obernolte had $103,000 in the bank at the end of September, though almost all of that was self-funded.
At least four other Republicans are running, though only two of them look very interesting. One familiar name is Tim Donnelly, a far-right former state Assemblyman who has waged several unsuccessful campaigns over the last decade. Donnelly challenged Cook last year and did manage to advance to the general election, but the incumbent prevailed 60-40. Another notable GOP candidate is Marine veteran and former NFL player Jeremy Staat, but he had a mere $17,000 available at the end of September.
This seat backed Trump 55-40, and Team Blue was locked out of the general election in both 2012 and 2018. That scenario might play out again since at least three Democrats are running, though only one of them looks like she’ll have the resources to get her name out. Engineer Chris Bubser was challenging Cook before he decided to run for another office, and she ended September with $228,000 on-hand.
CA-10: Democrat Josh Harder unseated GOP incumbent Jeff Denham 52-48 in an expensive contest last year, but he looks likely to have an easier time this cycle in this 49-46 Clinton seat.
The Republican with by far the most money is former Tracy City Councilor Ted Howze, who ran in the 2018 top-two primary and came unexpectedly close to denying Harder a spot in the general election for this Modesto area seat. Howze ended September with just over $700,000 in the bank, though most of that was self-funded. For his part, Harder had $2 million to spend.
The only current elected official on the GOP side is San Joaquin County Supervisor Bob Elliott, who entered the race in May but had only about $200,000 in the bank at the end of September. The third Republican in the race is Marla Livengood, who challenged Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney last year in the neighboring 9th District and lost 56-44. Livengood had $81,000 in the bank after the most recent fundraising quarter.
CA-16: Rep. Jim Costa has long been one of the more conservative members of the Democratic caucus, and he faces a challenge from the left from Fresno City Councilor Esmeralda Soria, a fellow Democrat. However, it will be difficult for Soria to get through the top-two primary unless the incumbent somehow manages to take third place or worse.
That's because only one Republican, real estate agent Kevin Cookingham, ended up filing, while former Foreign Service diplomat Kim Williams is also running as a Democrat. This seat, which includes Merced and part of Fresno, backed Clinton 58-36, so Cookingham will have a good chance to advance to November if he can just consolidate the conservative vote. However, Cookingham has raised very little money, and he's unlikely to put this seat in play in the fall if he makes it that far.
CA-21: Democrat TJ Cox pulled off a shocking 50.4-49.6 victory last year against GOP incumbent David Valadao, and the two will face off again this year. This seat, which includes the southern Central Valley and part of Bakersfield, backed Clinton 55-40, but Valadao decisively won three terms here before his 2018 loss. However, while Valadao is a strong fundraiser, he may have a difficult time winning over the crossover voters he's depended on now that Cox is the incumbent.
CA-22: Last year, GOP Rep. Devin Nunes won a very expensive contest 53-47 in a Central Valley seat that Trump carried 52-43, and three Democrats are competing to face him this time. Financial advisor Phil Arballo has the support of 2018 nominee Andrew Janz, who is currently running for mayor of Fresno, while former healthcare administrator Bobby Bliatout has the state party endorsement. A third candidate, accountant Dary Rezvani, hasn't attracted much attention or donations yet.
Nunes has infuriated progressives for years with his many attempts to shield Trump from investigations, and he's only gotten worse over the last few months. However, conservative donors have eagerly opened up their wallets for him, and at the close of September, the incumbent had just shy of $7 million to spend. Arballo and Bliatout had $236,000 and $188,000 available, respectively, though they each say their fundraising has spiked over the following months.
CA-25: Democrat Katie Hill resigned from the House last month after she was victimized by revenge porn that she accused her estranged husband and "hateful political operatives" of circulating, and the first round of the special election to succeed her and the top-two primary for the regular term will both be on March 3. This northern Los Angeles County seat backed Clinton 50-44 after supporting Romney 50-48 four years earlier.
However, while filing closed Friday for the regularly scheduled election, candidates have until Jan. 9 to run in the special, so the two contests may have slightly different lists of candidates. It's also worth noting that the special election will operate under slightly different rules: Candidates can win the first round in March by taking a majority of the vote, though that's unlikely to happen in such a crowded contest. The second round of the special would take place May 21.
A total of seven Democrats, five Republicans, and two candidates who don't identify with a party filed to run for the regular two-year term. On the Democratic side, Assemblywoman Christy Smith has the support of the state party establishment, including Gov. Gavin Newsom and Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris. The other notable Democrat running is political commentator Cenk Uygur, who has long been a vocal opponent of national party leaders.
On the GOP side, the best-known contender is former Rep. Steve Knight, who lost this seat to Hill 54-46 last year. However, Navy veteran Mike Garcia spent months running against Hill, which gave him a fundraising head start over the entire field. The other notable Republican is former Trump aide George Papadopoulos, who was sentenced to two weeks in prison last year after pleading guilty to lying to federal investigators about his contacts with the Russian government as part of special counsel Robert Mueller's probe.
CA-39: Democrat Gil Cisneros won last year's open seat race by beating Republican Young Kim 52-48, and the two will face off again next year. This is likely to be another expensive contest, and Cisneros ended September with a small $658,000 to $638,000 cash-on-hand lead. This seat, which includes the San Gabriel Valley and northern Orange County, swung from 51-47 Romney to 51-43 Clinton.
CA-45: Democrat Katie Porter unseated GOP incumbent Mimi Walters in this ancestrally Republican Orange County seat last year, and several Republicans are running to try and take it back.
The GOP candidate with the most money at the end of September was Laguna Hills Mayor Don Sedgwick, who posted a $548,000 to $326,000 cash-on-hand lead over Orange County Board of Education member Lisa Sparks. Mission Viejo Mayor Greg Raths, who unsuccessfully ran here in 2014 and 2016, had $201,000 in the bank, while Yorba Linda City Councilor Peggy Huang had $121,000 to spend. A few other Republicans are also in, but they haven't attracted much attention yet.
Porter has been one of the strongest fundraisers in a freshman Democratic class full of strong fundraisers, and she had close to $2 million to spend at the end of September. This seat, which includes Irvine, swung from 55-43 Romney to 50-44 Clinton.
CA-48: Democrat Harley Rouda beat GOP incumbent Dana Rohrabacher last year in a district that swung from 55-43 Romney to 48-46 Clinton, and he faces an expensive re-election contest for this coastal Orange County seat. Several Republicans are running but the only one who has raised a notable amount of money is Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel. Rouda ended September with a $1.5 million to $1 million cash-on-hand lead over Steel, who has done some self-funding.
CA-49: Democrat Mike Levin decisively won last year's open seat race for a seat that swung from 52-46 Romney to 51-43 Clinton, and the GOP seems to be focusing their efforts elsewhere.
Levin's only GOP opponent in this seat, which includes southern Orange County and northern San Diego County, appears to be San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott. Maryott, who took just 3% of the vote in last year's top-two primary, has self-funded a portion of his campaign, but he trailed the incumbent $1.2 million to $361,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of September.
CA-50: GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter pleaded guilty last week to a single charge of conspiracy to convert campaign funds to personal use and announced days later that he would resign from the House sometime “[s]hortly after the Holidays.” It’s not clear when, or even if, there will be a special election next year for the remaining months of Hunter’s term, but the field is set for the regularly two-year term in this conservative inland San Diego County seat.
Several Republicans were already running before Hunter pleaded guilty, including two who have held elected office outside of this district. Former Rep. Darrell Issa narrowly won re-election in the neighboring 49th District in 2016 and retired the following cycle just before Democrats decisively flipped it. Issa has the support of the convicted congressman's father, namesake, and predecessor, former Rep. Duncan Hunter.
Former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio lost a tight race for mayor in 2012 and narrowly failed to unseat Democratic Rep. Scott Peters two years later in the 52nd District. While neither of those contests took place in this seat, DeMaio may have some name recognition with GOP voters from his subsequent career as a local conservative radio host. The only local elected official in the race is state Sen. Brian Jones, who represents about 87% of the 50th District in the legislature.
DeMaio was the only Republican who started fundraising during the last quarter, and he ended September with a strong $1.2 million war chest. However, Issa spent years topping the list of the wealthiest members of Congress, so he can likely self-fund.
The most prominent candidate on the Democratic side is 2018 nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar, who held Hunter to a 52-48 win last year and had $853,000 to spend at the end of September. A few other Democrats are also in, though, including National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals executive director Marisa Calderon. San Diego County’s candidate list doesn’t list each contender’s party yet, though, so we don’t know how many candidates each side is fielding here.
CA-53: Democratic Rep. Susan Davis is retiring from this 65-29 Clinton seat in eastern San Diego, and there’s a crowded Democratic field to succeed her.
The only local elected official in the contest is San Diego City Council president Georgette Gómez, who has the support of the state Democratic Party. Another familiar name is Sara Jacobs, who ran a well-funded race for the nearby 49th District last year. Jacobs ended September with a $294,000 to $191,000 cash-on-hand lead over Gómez.
Other Democratic candidates include activist Jose Caballero, who was challenging Davis before she retired; Marine veteran Janessa Goldbeck; and UC San Diego professor Tom Wong. Goldbeck had $97,000 in the bank at the end of September to Caballero’s $3,000, while Wong entered the race last month.
Two Republicans, nurse Famela Ramos and technology consultant Mike Oristian, are running here, so Democrats will want to keep an eye out to make sure that they both don’t advance through the top-two primary. If anything, though, it's more likely that two Democrats will advance to the general election in this very blue seat, especially since the March presidential primary will likely see Democratic voters turn out in disproportionate numbers.
Fresno, CA Mayor: Republican Mayor Lee Brand decided not to seek re-election earlier this year, and Democrats are hoping to win control of city hall for the first time since Fresno moved to its current system for electing mayors more than 20 years ago. The officially nonpartisan primary will take place March 3, and if no one takes a majority of the vote, the top-two vote-getters will advance to the Nov. 3 general election.
Five candidates are running, but the only two who look credible at this point are Democrat Andrew Janz and former Fresno Police Chief Jerry Dyer, who identifies as a Republican. Janz, a former Fresno County prosecutor, challenged GOP Rep. Devin Nunes last year in the 22nd Congressional District and lost a very expensive race for this 52-43 Trump seat by a respectable 53-47 margin. (Fresno makes up about 30% of the 22nd District.)
Dyer, meanwhile, served as police chief from 2001 until he stepped down in October, and this is his first bid for office. However, an allegation that surfaced when Dyer was first appointed nearly two decades ago is again in the news.
The Fresno Bee reported back in 2001 that the police department had twice investigated allegations in the 1980s that Dyer, who was a 26-year-old police officer at the time, had sex with an underage girl who was 16. Dyer was never charged with any crimes.
Dyer told the paper then, “I’m not going to sit here before you and confirm those things or deny those things,” continuing, “All I can tell you is that the relationships that I have had outside of my marriage, when I was a young man, have been dealt with. … God’s forgiven me. My wife’s forgiven me. This department’s forgiven me and looked into a lot of things in my past.”
When a reporter asked Dyer why he wouldn’t outright deny the allegations if they weren’t true, he responded, “Principle … Sometimes a response dignifies the question.” The story didn’t stop Dyer from becoming police chief, and he went on to serve for another 18 years.
Dyer was again asked about the allegations this month in a new interview. The candidate told the hosts of the “Two Guys Talkin’ Fresno” podcast, “At the appropriate time, there will be an appropriate response,” and added, “Over the years, my wife and I have had a lot of discussions about where I was in my 20s … I want to be careful, quite frankly, not to do or say anything that’s going to cause any issues in other people’s lives as well.”
Dyer was more combative in a subsequent statement he made to the Bee last week and suggested that the “appropriate time” he had in mind to address the story would be never. “This decades-old and publicly-vetted issue is nothing short of a political smear to deflect from the real issues facing our community,” he said. “I will not be discussing these smears now or in the future.”
San Diego, CA Mayor: Republicans hoping to hold this seat finally got a noteworthy candidate just before Friday's filing deadline when City Councilman Scott Sherman announced he would run to succeed termed-out Mayor Kevin Faulconer. Sherman will face two notable Democrats, Assemblyman Todd Gloria and City Councilwoman Barbara Bry, in the March 3 nonpartisan primary. The two candidates with the most votes will advance to the Nov. 5 general election.
While Republicans have held this post with only a few brief interruptions since 1992, Sherman will have a difficult time prevailing next year in an area that has turned hard against the GOP during the Trump era. It doesn't help that the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce, a prominent group led by former GOP Mayor Jerry Sanders that usually backs Republicans, is supporting Gloria.
Gloria also has Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris, and several labor organizations in his corner, and he looks like the frontrunner at this point in the race. Gloria, who is a former City Council president, also served as mayor for six months after incumbent Bob Filner resigned in disgrace in the summer of 2013, so he may benefit from some lingering name recognition. Gloria would be the city's first elected mayor of color, as well as its first elected gay mayor.
Los Angeles County, CA District Attorney: Incumbent Jackie Lacey faces a high-profile challenge in the March nonpartisan primary from former San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón, a fellow Democrat. Two other candidates, prosecutor Richard Ceballos and public defender Rachel Rossi, are also in. If no one takes a majority of the vote, the top-two contenders would face off in November.
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